Horse Racing Betting News For Saturday 3/14/20

March 13, 2020
By Mike Dempsey

Racing went on Friday and I have to say betting from home I hardly noticed anything was different. The tracks restricted access, with no fans in attendance, but the action rolled on and cashing tickets did not feel any different.

While the NBA, NHL, MLB and NASCAR have halted events, there has been no break in the action in horse racing so far. The only major racetrack to cancel action so far is The Meadowlands, a harness track in New Jersey.

That could change as this crisis is fluid with things changing hourly, so we will just keep our fingers crossed. There are a dozen key Road to the Kentucky Derby points races to be decided over the next month leading up to the Run for the Roses on May 2.

There was going to be over 40,000 at Oaklawn Park today in Hot Springs, Arkansas, but the races go on without spectators. The feature on the card is the $1 million Rebel (G2) with 50-20-10-5 Derby points up for grabs for the top four finishers.

The $250,000 Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3) at Turfway Park will also offer up Derby points. The top four will earn 20-8-4-2 points. The race is contested over a synthetic surface and while the race is not considered a major Derby prep, Animal Kingdom did prep in the race and went on to win the Kentucky Derby in 2011.

That might go down as my favorite Derby as trainer Graham Motion used to have the box right next to me at Laurel Park many years ago and I actually picked the colt, who returned $43.80 to win.

Racing will be nationally televised on FS2 from 3:00 to 7:00 ET on Saturday and 3:00 to 6:30 ET on Sunday. If you are new to horse racing, both Churchill Downs and the New York Racing Association have apps to stream the action on Roku, Apple TV and Amazon Firestick.

My Best Plays Report for Saturday includes my 10 strongest plays from Aqueduct and Oaklawn Park and the Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3) from Turfway Park.

Now is the perfect time to purchase my Monthly Package. It gives you a month of Aqueduct Reports daily and my Best Plays Report each Saturday and Sunday which will include all of the major Road to the Kentucky Derby prep races.

Here is the opening race from Aqueduct to get the day off to a good start:

AQU Race 1 Md $40,000 (1:30 ET)
#8 Love Me Tomorrow 5-2
#3 Gringotts 8-1
#4 Enough Love 6-5
#2 Central Perk 4-1

Analysis: Love Me Tomorrow returns off a two-month break and makes her first start for the Avila barn that is 23% winners (with a +ROI) first off, the claim. The filly is coming off a decent effort as the beaten chalk in a runner up finish against state bred $25,000 foes last out where she came with a mild late run while wide. She comes back with blinkers added and a bullet work on the morning tab. She steps up to $40,000 but these are no tougher than she has been facing. She is the first foal to race out of a Holy Bull mare. She showed speed in her first three career starts and with the hood added I expect to see her back up front against this group.

Gringotts bobbled coming out of the gate leaving her toward the back of the pack and she made a good late rally to finish in the runner up spot at 24-1 last out. She was cutting back from a mile where she was outrun two back. She looks back on track for the Englehart barn that also looks back on track after being chilly early in the meeting. The filly is out of a Secret Halo mare that has dropped six other foals to race with three winners. The jock "worries" but she should end up a decent price in this spot.

Wagering
WIN: #8 to win at 5-2 or better.
EX: 3,8 / 2,3,4,8
TRI: 3,8 / 2,3,4,8 / 2,3,4,6,8

Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Oaklawn Park:

OP Race 9 The Azeri G2 (4:50 CT)
#1 Street Band 3-1
#5 Serengeti Empress 9-5
#2 Mylady Curlin 4-1
#4 Lady Apple 5-2

Analysis: Street Band stalked the early pace and battled on but came up a bit short late in a third-place finish in the Huston Lades Classic (G3) last out, the same race our top four contenders here all exit. I thought she was a bit of an underachiever most of last year before putting it all together in the Cotillion (G1), but then did not fire in the Breeders' Cup Distaff (G1). She makes her second start off a 2 1/2-month break and she just needs to see bit more pace than she did in Texas to turn the tables.

Serengeti Empress was able to set moderate fractions as the chalk and cold not hold off Lady Apple late, coming up a half-length short. She was no match for our top pick in the Cotillion but came back with a good third in the Distaff. She catches a racing strip here that can be kind to speed sometimes and if she gets away with moderate fractions here, she may prove tougher to run down. She is bred to handle a wet track if the rains come.

Wagering
WIN: #1 to win at 5-2 or better.
EX: 1,5 / 1,2,4,5
TRI: 1,5 / 1,2,4,5 / 1,2,4,5,7

Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Aqueduct:

AQU Race 8 The Correction (5:01 ET)
#2 Bridlewood Cat 8-5
#4 Kept True 9-5
#5 Piedi Bianchi 5-2
#1 Slimey 8-1

Analysis: Bridlewood Cat pressed the early pace and came up empty in the stretch last out in a fourth-place finish as the beaten chalk against Alw-2 optional claimers over a wet track that was kind to speed. She broke her maiden three back by 11 1/4 lengths and then was a sharp winner versus Alw-1 foes in her first start against winners. She owns a solid pace profile throughout and looking for her to bounce back with a better effort in this spot for a sharp barn.

Kept True prompted the early pace, took over the lead heading for home and rolled to a three-length win in the state bred Broadway last out. It was her fifth win in 10 career starts, all of her wins coming in New York bred company. She steps outside of the state bred ranks here but looks sharp enough to handle it. She looks headed in the right direction form wise and this race looks like it is going to land on the chalky side.

Wagering
WIN: #2 to win at 8-5 or better.
EX: 2,4 / 1,2,4,5
TRI: no play

Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.

Aqueduct
R1: #3 Gringotts 8-1
R2: #3 Chuckles 10-1
R3: #3 Fulfill 8-1
R4: #7 Royal Albert Hall 8-1
R6: #5 Bongga 12-1
R7: #4 Queendom 10-1
R8: #1 Slimey 8-1
R9: #2 Remoane 10-1

By Anthony Stabile

Saturday's Horse Racing Picks
2020 Kentucky Derby Prep Predictions
Bet the Rebel Stakes at TVG!
REBEL STAKES (Grade 2)
Date: Saturday, March 14, 2020
Post Time: 6:23 p.m. ET
Race #: 10 Distance: Dirt, 1 1/16 miles (8 1/2 furlongs)
Qualification: Three-year-olds
Purse: $1,000,000
Track: Oaklawn Park
Location: Hot Springs, Arkansas
REBEL STAKES
Handicapping Analysis
(Post-Horse-Morning Line Odds)

1 – Nadal (5-2) Bob Baffert will look to add to his record six wins in the event when he takes the blinkers off the San Vicente winner. Will make his first start around two turns and should be forwardly placed from his inside draw.

2 – Excession (30-1) Exits the “slower” division of the Risen Star at Fair Grounds last out and has won just once in eight tries. Would need a monumentally fast pace and then need for it to collapse to have any chance.

3 – Basin (3-1) Makes his first start since taking the Hopeful at Saratoga over six months ago. This will be his first start beyond seven furlongs. He should work out a solid trip behind the speed under Javier Castellano who rides for the first time.

4 – Silver Prospector (7-2) Asmussen’s “other” runner is a two-time stakes winner, including a grinding-out win in the Southwest over this course, most recently. Beat Tiz the Law in KJC last fall at Churchill Downs.

5 – No Parole (8-1) Had clobbered fellow Louisiana breds at both Delta Downs at the Fair Grounds in his first three starts, winning by a combined 34 lengths. Gets a new rider in Joe Talamo for his open company unveiling and figures to give Nadal fits on the front-end.

6 – Three Technique (7-2) To use some harness parlance, he had a “no-chance-trip” after breaking awkwardly when away last from his outside draw in the Smarty Jones before closing nicely to finish fourth in what was his route debut.

7 – Coach Bahe (30-1) Adds Lasix after breaking his maiden in the mud in an off-the-turf event at Fair Grounds. Appears overmatched against these.

8 – American Theorem (6-1) Finished a distant second in the American Pharoah at Santa Anita last fall after breaking his maiden on debut. Tough spot, and draw, for return but always felt like he had some promise.
REBEL STAKES
Predictions - If I had $100
$40 Win on 6
$10 Exacta Box 6 with 1,3,8
Anthony's Eleven Power Rankings
Welcome to “Anthony’s Eleven,” your source for anything and everything leading up to Kentucky Derby 146 on May 2, 2020 at historic Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. In the coming weeks, Anthony Stabile, best known for picking 2003 Kentucky Derby winner Funny Cide at odds of over 12-1, will break down the top contenders for this years’ Run for the Roses on VegasInsider.com, culminating on Friday, May 1 with an extensive analysis of every runner that steps into the gate for the most exciting two minutes in sports.

Kentucky Derby Odds
A11 - Updated March 13, 2020

Rank, Horse (Pool 3 Odds), Trainer, Jockey
1) Tiz the Law (7-1)
Trainer: Barclay Tagg
Jockey: Manny Franco

The results of last weekend’s preps have done nothing but solidify his top-of-the-heap status for me. His stock looks better and better every week and he’s only raced once this season.
2) Modernist (35-1)
Trainer: Bill Mott
Jockey: Junior Alvarado

More addition by subtraction here. I believe he’ll run all day and it appears that most of these are going to struggle with the distances of the Triple Crown races. Hope you were able to get some of that 35-1 in Pool 3.
3) Enforceable (23-1)
Trainer: Mark Casse
Jockey: Julien Leparoux

Son of Tapit is another enjoying his work as the distances get longer. Closed against biased course at Fair Grounds to get second in faster division of Risen Star.
4) Gouverneur Morris (26-1)
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Jockey: John Velazquez

Made his sophomore debut a winning one when he wore down the speed in an allowance/optional claimer at Tampa Bay Downs. Last year, he broke his maiden on closing day at Saratoga in the slop before finishing second at Keeneland in the Breeders’ Futurity.
5) Honor A.P. (14-1)
Trainer: John Shirreffs
Jockey: Mike Smith

Finished second in his first start in nearly four months behind a loose-on-the-lead Baffert favorite who makes his debut on the “Eleven” this week. He should improve next out. He’ll need to.
6) Authentic (6-1)
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Jockey: Flavien Prat

Say what you will about getting an easy trip in the San Felipe on the front-end last week, but this guy needs to be taken seriously. Maybe he’s winning his races by open lengths because he is just plain better than these.
7) Independence Hall (27-1)
Trainer: Mike Trombetta
Jockey: Jose Ortiz

Obviously talented, having won the first three starts of his career, including a couple of stakes at Aqueduct, by a combined 20-plus lengths, his pre-race antics will eventually catch up to him. Finished second in the Sam F. Davis in his first two-turn start last out. Jock currently out with broken wrist.
8) Sole Volante (20-1)
Trainer: Patrick Biancone
Jockey: Florent Geroux

Was left wayyyyy too much to do in the Tampa Bay Derby yet still managed an inside bid to get the place money behind massive upsetter King Guillermo. Always seems to me more pace the closer we get to the first Saturday in May and that will certainly help his cause.
9) Candy Tycoon (4-1 - Field)
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Jockey: Manny Franco

Showed little speed before closing to be second to runaway winner in Fountain of Youth after taking them gate-to-wire in his route debut two starts back, his fourth start overall. Had a ton of buzz last summer at Saratoga and has started to live up to it as the distances get longer.
10) Three Technique (29-1)
Trainer: Jeremiah Englehart
Jockey: Luis Saez

Makes his second start of the year and at Oaklawn in the rebel on Saturday. Saez will be aboard for the first time. He almost must be tighter and get a better trip from his runner-up finish in the Smarty Jones last out.
11) Charlatan (12-1)
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Jockey: Drayden Van Dyke

The Justify comparisons figure to continue next week as he’s entered in an entry-level allowance contest at Santa Anita on Saturday. While it won’t be the toughest field he’s ever faced it certainly won’t be a cakewalk. Interested to see how the son of Speightstown handles the stretch out in distance.

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts
PURCHASE

Bar

Sam Houston - Race #2 - Post: 7:12pm - Claiming - 7.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $14,000 Class Rating: 87

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#2 ROCKTIZWAY (ML=8/1)
#3 NACOGDOCHES (ML=2/1)
#1 RAMBLIN FEVER (ML=3/1)

ROCKTIZWAY - Personally, I wouldn't worry about where he finished in his last race (fourth). Should rebound right here, with some respectable odds. Is ranked at the top in earnings per start. A strong try right here can add to that total. Two starts back coming off a brief layoff at Sam Houston the horse looked good, but turned in a clunker the next time. Today I like the ability to bounce back off that dull effort with another nice race. NACOGDOCHES - The rider and trainer combination here have a high win percent when they work together. RAMBLIN FEVER - Strong return on investment for this jock and handler duo. This gelding is in fine condition, having run a good race on February 19th, finishing fourth. Don't throw out based on last race finish. He didn't finish in the money, but made a nice move down the homestretch making up ground. Could be dangerous at a possible price. You have to really like that recent race fig, 82, which is the best most recent race speed rating of this field.

Vulnerable Contenders: #5 MAJOR BROWN (ML=7/2), #6 COMMANDER MCDIVITT (ML=4/1),

MAJOR BROWN - Hasn't hit the board in any short distance races lately. Improbable to see him doing it today either. Difficult to keep chasing this kind of 'bridesmaid' horse. COMMANDER MCDIVITT - You think this equine is going to win just because he's always close. Just doesn't finish on top regularly.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:
#2 ROCKTIZWAY is the play if we get odds of 7/2 or better

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [2,3] Box [1,2]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Box [1,2,3] Total Cost: $6

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
None
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Handicapped by The Walker Group at Parx Racing
PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 3 - Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $28000 Class Rating: 83

FOR FILLIES AND MARES FOUR YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. WEIGHT, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE FEBRUARY 14 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $25,000.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks

# 6 CAWAJA TIME 4/1

# 2 YELLOW CHICK 2/1

# 3 EMPRESS OF FORTUNE 7/2

CAWAJA TIME is my choice. She must be given consideration given the strong speed figs. Bowman will most likely be able to get this mare to break out sharply for this race. She has formidable class ratings, averaging 84, and has to be considered for this race. YELLOW CHICK - Has very good speed figures and has to be considered for a wager for this event. Ran a solid last race. EMPRESS OF FORTUNE - She has a good opportunity for this event as handler, Lake, has strong win clip with horses going this distance. Looks respectable against this group of horses in this race and will almost certainly be one of the leaders.
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Handicapped by The Walker Group at Camarero Race Track
PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 7 - Claiming - 6.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $6000 Class Rating: 35

FOR NATIVE FILLIES AND MARES FOUR YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE SINCE MARCH 14, 2019 AND WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $8,000 OR LESS. WEIGHT, 120 LBS. ALLOWED 4 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $4,000.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks

# 1 TEATRAL 10/1

# 3 MISS IKIGAI 3/1

# 5 PERFECT MARTINI 20/1

TEATRAL supports the wager in here and is a very good value-based bet given the 10/1 line. MISS IKIGAI - Cardona has a winning percentage of 21 over the last month.
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Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts
PURCHASE

Bar

Fair Grounds - Race #3 - Post: 1:28pm - Maiden Special - 5.5 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $40,000 Class Rating: 75

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#7 LISTEN UP (ML=7/2)
#6 JIM'S BRONZE STAR (ML=4/1)

LISTEN UP - This is a fairly classic handicapping angle. Play a campaigner that finished runner-up in a maiden race last time out but finished well ahead of the show horse. Sophisticated bettors will tell you that this horse has strong speed. You have to like that last race speed figure, 87, which is the highest last race figure of this bunch. JIM'S BRONZE STAR - Filly's last workout was second fastest of the day for the distance. You always have to be on the patrol for profit making jockey/conditioner duos; we have it right here. Ranks at the top in earnings per race. A solid effort in this field can add to the lifetime bankroll.

Vulnerable Contenders: #1 MILLENNIUM FORCE (ML=3/1), #3 GO TWEET (ML=8/1), #4 THREE QUARTER TIME (ML=8/1),

MILLENNIUM FORCE - M/L odds of 3/1 make this mount a pass by my standards. GO TWEET - No value on this horse at the likely odds of 8/1. THREE QUARTER TIME - Oddsmaker's morning line of 8/1 make this thoroughbred a pass by my standards.

Top HatGUEST COMMENTARY: The Turf Man - LISTEN UP - The best last race TrackMaster turf number makes this filly a tough opponent for these thoroughbreds.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:
#7 LISTEN UP to win at post-time odds of 7/5 or better

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [6,7]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
7 with 6 with [1,2,9] Total Cost: $3

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Pass
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