Welcome, Guest
Username: Password: Remember me
Read and Discuss News, Betting, Odds, Trends, Picks and Predictions for Soccer, Mixed Martial Arts, Pro Wrestling, Boxing, Golf, The Olympics, Horse Racing and Anything Else Right Here

Belmont Stakes Breakdown

Belmont Stakes Breakdown 11 months 4 weeks ago #507178

  • Shazman
  • Shazman's Avatar
  • Offline
  • Moderator
  • Posts: 42924
  • Thank you received: 331
  • Karma: 61
Betting news, trends, odds and predictions from various handicappers and websites for Saturday 6/8/19
The administrator has disabled public write access.

Belmont Stakes Breakdown 11 months 4 weeks ago #507179

  • Shazman
  • Shazman's Avatar
  • Offline
  • Moderator
  • Posts: 42924
  • Thank you received: 331
  • Karma: 61
By Anthony Stabile

2019 Breakdown
PP - Horse ML Odds Jockey (Belmont Record) Trainer (Belmont Record)

1 – Joevia 30/1 Jose Lezcano (0-4) Greg Sacco (Debut)
Notes: Winner of the Long Branch at Monmouth most recently, the assumption is the connections are taking a shot at just wiring the field. He’s got plenty of speed and the leading rider at the meet but I don’t think it’s enough. He’s never run a race that is anywhere near fast enough to compete here and has to negotiate all of that added distance. Not for me.

2 – Everfast 12/1 Luis Saez (0-3) Dale Romans (0-10)
Notes: The Jekyll and Hyde of the crop, if you will, when you peruse his past performances. He throws a lot of clunkers in there but sometimes he runs a big one, like his runner-up finish in the Holy Bull back in February at Gulfstream when he was over 128-1 or last time in the Preakness when he finished second at almost 30-1. I don’t know about the rest of his starts but that effort last time was due in large part to a brilliant ride from Rosario. He realized the inside part of the track at Pimlico was the place to be and allowed this guy to make his stretch run along the rail. He’s never run two good races in a row. What makes me think he’s going to start in the Belmont? Pass.

3 – Master Fencer 8/1 Julien Leparoux (0-3) Koichi Tsunoda (Debut)
Notes: I’m going to let you all in on a little secret: the key to handicapping the Belmont Stakes is the Kentucky Derby. That sounds simple and generic but I cannot stress this point enough. Watch the replay of the Derby as much as you can. Isolate the runners coming back in the Belmont and look at how the finish up. You are NOT looking for the steamroll move, like the one this guy put in. Horses that make his move are optical illusions. They are picking up tired horses who are coming back to them just as much as they are picking them up. I’ll explain what you’re looking for later. This colt did not have a good time last week, missed a touch of training and simply hasn’t impressed at all in the morning. Some will chalk it up to the Japanese horses training differently but I’m not buying it. He’s not for me.

4 – Tax 15/1 Irad Ortiz, Jr. (1-5) Danny Gargan (Debut)
Notes: In a race like the Kentucky Derby, especially this renewal, that’s often filled with traffic and bad trips, this gelding had one of the easiest trips in recent memory and didn’t run a step. Maybe he didn’t handle the wet track. That could very well be the case and he flies in here under the radar at a big price and gives a good showing. I wouldn’t be stunned by that scenario but I believe it’s more likely the distance limitations I thought he may have are what really got to him last time. And if he can’t get 10 furlongs common sense suggests he won’t get 12. I’m tossing him.

5 – Bourbon War 12/1 Mike Smith (3-20) Mark Hennig (0-1)
Notes: My Preakness selection turned into the “wiseguy” horse as he was sent to post at 5-1. I was stunned. The only thing that surprised me more was his non-effort. He didn’t run at all. They’re blaming the blinkers he wore for the first time and they are coming off for this. I know equipment changes backfire sometimes but that was ridiculous. Hoping it was a combination of the blinkers and maybe him needing a race off of a seven-week break. One of three sons of Tapit in here, he must be respected on his pedigree alone but you lost some value when Money Mike climbed aboard. I’m going to use him in my exotic wagers.

6 – Spinoff 15/1 Javier Castellano (0-12) Todd Pletcher (3-26)
Notes: This guy is the “wiseguy” horse for the Belmont. Bad post, sloppy track, chased pace….just some of his Derby excuses. Now he’s had five weeks between starts, picks up a Hall of Fame rider and his trainer has a solid record in this event. All makes sense BUT he was another who had a pretty clean trip in the Derby that didn’t make the slightest impact. His Louisiana Derby effort was solid and the race produced Derby winner Country House and Preakness winner War of Will but they far from fired their best shots that day. The horses who did aren’t much. One of those who I’m passing on but I can understand why some may like him.

7 – Sir Winston 21/1 Joel Rosario (1-7) Mark Casse (Debut)
Notes: Ran the race of his life when he made up close to 10 lengths in the stretch of the traditional Belmont Park prep for this, the Peter Pan. He’s usually making up ground at the end of his races but rarely gets his picture taken because he leaves himself with too much to do. It’s tough for one-run closers like him to win this race despite the legend that they love the extra distance. There doesn’t appear to be enough speed in here for a complete collapse on the front end that would afford him the chance to win but I’ll be using him in all of my exotic plays.

8 – Intrepid Heart 10/1 John Velazquez (2-22) Todd Pletcher (3-26)
Notes: He looked good winning the first two starts of his career but disappointed in the Peter Pan when he stumbled at the start from his rail draw. Johnny V had the choice of the two Pletcher runners and chose him. He also suggested a pair of blinkers for this, not to put more speed into him, but to get him to focus more. He’s another by Tapit and a half brother to 2014 Belmont Stakes runner-up Commissioner. I can’t imagine he’ll be too far from the lead. At some point, he’ll likely be in front, on the far turn, I imagine. It’ll be up to him from there. I’m a big fan of his and will be using him in all of my exotic plays.

9 – War of Will 2/1 Tyler Gaffalione (Debut) Mark Casse (Debut)
Notes: He’s the only horses to run in all three legs of the Triple Crown this year, if he finds a way to win this, that number of “what if’s” will be endless. I think there’s a good chance he’d have won the Derby if Maximum Security didn’t get in his way and he came back with a very nice win in the Preakness. A closer look at the Preakness, however, and you realize just how watered down it was going in and the amount of disappointing efforts coming out of the event. Combine that with the fact that he sat a perfect trip and that he hasn’t overwhelmed in the mornings since (Casse cancelled an intended workout) and you have the makings of getting the second choice (co-favorite perhaps?) out of the gimmicks. I’m tossing him in here but have nothing for respect for him as a racehorse.

10 – Tacitus 9/5 Jose Ortiz (1-4) Bill Mott (1-7)
Notes: In any other year, he’d have been the one people would have been talking about, trip-wise anyway, out of the Derby. He was much further back that I think anyone imagined he’d be and lost some momentum at least three times during the race. After the race, it was said that he traveled the equivalent of nine lengths more than the winner. But when you almost have half the field wiped out, no one is going to talk about that. Look, I’m giving you ice in the winter here. He’s the pick but he’s likely going to be under 2-1. I will say this. I don’t think he can lose. I have as much confidence in him as any pick I’ve made in this race. I’m not making any boxes or any savers. He’s my single in all multi-race wagers and key horse in all exotic plays.
The administrator has disabled public write access.

Belmont Stakes Breakdown 11 months 4 weeks ago #507180

  • Shazman
  • Shazman's Avatar
  • Offline
  • Moderator
  • Posts: 42924
  • Thank you received: 331
  • Karma: 61
Belmont Stakes Betting Preview and Picks

Tacitus and War of Will are the top two choices to win Saturday’s Belmont Stakes that can be seen on NBC. This year’s Belmont Stakes will not have as much excitement as previous years, as there is no Triple Crown on the line, but at least the race will have ten horses entered and that means we should have some betting value.

Let’s look at the race and Belmont Stakes picks.


2019 Belmont Stakes Odds
1 Joevia 30/1
2 Everfast 12/1
3 Master Fencer 8/1
4 Tax 15/1
5 Bourbon War 12/1
6 Spinoff 15/1
7 Sir Winston 12/1
8 Intrepid Heart 10/1
9 War of Will 2/1
10 Tacitus 9/5

Favorites

There are two horses in this race and then everyone else. Tacitus and War of Will are the top two betting choices and one of them will go off as the race favorite. War of Will is coming off a win in the Preakness and the horse is looking to become the first one since Afleet Alex in 2005 to win the Preakness and Belmont after finishing fourth or worse in the Kentucky Derby.

Tacitus finished fourth in the Kentucky Derby and then didn’t race in the Preakness. The horse is trained by Bill Mott who won the Belmont in 2010 with Drosselmeyer. Both of these horses are getting a lot of respect from the betting public and it would not be a surprise to see them go off at odds of less than 2-1.

The Rest

You can almost throw a net over the rest of the field, as there is nothing of note to separate these horses. Joevia has done next to nothing in his career and should be a big longshot. Everfast was a surprising second in the Preakness, but doesn’t seem like a horse that is going to like a mile and a half.

Master Fencer should like the added distance and he will have Julien Leparoux in the irons, so he might be worth a look. Tax was a bust in the Kentucky Derby and looks overvalued. Bourbon War was a complete disaster in the Preakness, but he does have Mike Smith in the irons, so perhaps a bounce back is possible. Spinoff was awful in the Derby, but he is trained by Todd Pletcher and ridden by Javier Castellano. Sir Winston was a runner-up in the Peter Pan at Belmont and Intrepid Heart finished third in the Peter Pan and he is trained by Pletcher and ridden by John Velazquez.

Belmont Stakes Picks

There is not much value in backing Tacitus or War of Will, so we’ll go with Master Fencer and Bourbon War with win bets. Master Fencer is expected to love the added distance. “He has a big heart and big lungs and is better suited to the longer distance,” Master Fencer’s regular exercise rider, Yosuke Kono said to the media, “He is not the type to make crazy speed. He has a long, strong late kick. For him, the mile and a half will be a lot better.”

Bourbon War was a complete no show in the Preakness and his trainer, Mark Hennig has no idea why. “There’s no indication why he threw in that race,” Hennig said to the media, “If you look at the chart of the race, he went from eighth, to 11th, to eighth — maybe when he was taken outside on the backside he thought he was supposed to ease up because he was out of the bridle for about a quarter-mile, then picked it up again in the stretch.” Keep in mind that Mike Smith has won the Belmont three times in his career.

We are looking to hit a big ticket in the Belmont and that means boxing some horses together in the exacta and trifecta. We think Tacitus definitely has a good chance to win, but we don’t like the 9-5 odds. We’ll box Tacticus, Bourbon War and Master Fencer in an exacta and for the trifecta box we’ll add Intrepid Heart to those previous three.
The administrator has disabled public write access.

Top Stories

    Mike Tyson Making His Boxing Return with $20 Million Opportunity Tyson to Make Boxing Return? If you like to bet on boxing fights, then there’s something exciting to look forward to. Mike Tyson, loved by many, is going to make a return, especially now with a $20 million opportunity. So, if you want to see him boxing again, expect to see something from him very soon.
    The Return of the Premier League: What Does it Mean for Sports Bettors? The Return of the Premier League Finally, there is some good news for football lovers! The Premier League resumption date has been confirmed to return on 17th June.
    Need a Change from Traditional Sports? Try Betting on These Markets Need a Change? Try Betting These Markets The world of betting has come a long way in the internet age, and it now spans way beyond picking the winner in a traditional sports game.
    Will Jordan Love selection spur on Aaron Rodgers in Green Bay? Will Love Selection Spur Rodgers in GB? The Green Bay Packers dropped a huge hint over the future of quarterback Aaron Rodgers by picking Jordan Love in the 2020 Draft. The 36-year-old has been outstanding during his 12-year run as the starting quarterback, inheriting the position in difficult circumstances from Hall of Famer Brett Favre. He ensured that the Packers would remain one of the NFL’s most competitive teams, bringing another Vince Lombardi Trophy back to the Titletown with their triumph in the 2010 season.
    NASCAR Cup Series Preview: Who has the edge at Darlington Raceway? NASCAR Cup Series Preview: Darlington There is perhaps no safer place to be, within the grip of a global pandemic, than the alone in the driver’s seat of your trusty car. Windows up, the solo passenger, the virus has no means of spread. The only danger is not getting into an accident.
    Betting On Virtual Motorsports Betting On Virtual Motorsports Virtual motorsport races are drawing a lot of attention from sportsbooks and their players. For those in the sports betting world, the cancellation of major sports has left us with few wagering options. But while fans of basketball, baseball, or hockey are patiently waiting to see their favorite players return to action, motor racing bettors don't have to wait at all. Competitive motor racing barely missed a beat when COVID-19 shut down sports worldwide, thanks to the realism of virtual racing simulators. These programs are used regularly by drivers to keep their skills sharp without the high cost of real track practice. Therefore, many of the top racers in the world entered eSports tournaments just days after real-world events were canceled. The first of these events were held in March and became so popular that sportsbooks began to take notice and offer odds. This is an excellent opportunity for any bookmaker to use the momentum of this sport to fill the gaps left in the absence of most leagues. The success of these events just goes to show how far the realism of simulation racing has come in the eSports era. With professionals now involved, along with the sanctioning bodies of F1, NASCAR & IndyCar, sim racing has been put into the spotlight. Make no mistake; the age of competitive virtual motorsports is upon us. With that in mind, let's explore the big three leagues going on right now that you can bet on. eNASCAR iRacing Pro Invitational Series The NASCAR season was put on hiatus after just four races, but a new form of the sport is experiencing an explosion in popularity. The NASCAR iRacing Pro Invitational was created to pick up where the Cup Series left off and use the iRacing platform to finish the season. Taking place each Sunday, this series pits NASCAR drivers and dignitaries against one another on a virtual track. Names such as Dale Earnhardt Jr., Denny Hamlin, Jeff Gordon, and Kyle Bush are a big reason for the early success. The iRacing platform makes the action feel as genuine as possible and is used for training on off days. Denny Hamlin suggested that around half of the people who work for or with NASCAR already have home setups, including wheels and pedals in their homes. This allowed for a quick transition for many races from the real to the digital world. The success of this new form of competition has been undeniable. The races run so far have been watched by hundreds of thousands of people worldwide to rave reviews. The odds are available now for upcoming races at Dover and Martindale speedways. William Byron is 3/1 favorite to win both after taking the checkered flag in the last two races and Top-8 finishes in the other two. Timmy Hill is also a guy to keep an eye on. Hill has finished in the Top-3 in all but one race this year and is 15/2 heading into Dover. INDYCAR iRacing Challenge iRacing has also teamed up with INDYCAR to host a virtual racing series while real races are on hold. The competitors are a mix of NTT INDYCAR Series drivers, along with some special invitees such as F1 racer Lando Norris. Norris was a special guest driver for Arrow McLaren for last week's race at the Circuit of the Americas. The 20-year-old dominated the field in fact as he beat out the other 33 drivers on the virtual road course in Texas. Norris had more than 20,000 viewers watching his Twitch stream alone. The races last around 70 minutes and are broadcasted live on NBCSN with live commentary just like a day at the track would have. There is even a pre-race show featuring a national anthem presentation and more. The list of drivers includes seven Indianapolis 500 winners and features names like Josef Newgarden, Scott Dixon, Ryan Hunter-Reay, and Simon Pagenaud. F1 eSports Virtual Grand Prix Series With the real-world Formula 1 series postponed, the F1 eSports Virtual GP series has stepped into the spotlight. Professional drivers, retired legends, full-time gamers, and celebrities go head to head in events that mirror the real-life series. This gives bettors a chance to continue watching and wagering on competitive racing on weekends. The major difference with the F1 Virtual Series is the platform that is utilized. Formula One has its own branded title developed by Codemasters. While not as realistic as the iRacing software, it is still a popular alternative for fans to watch. It must also be mentioned that this series is not a part of the competitive eSports series that is also currently active. This series is more of an exhibition event and features racers of varying driving and gaming talent. Races are 28 laps or less and follow qualifying to determine the starting positions for each race. The first race saw participants ranging from current F1 drivers Nicholas Latifi and Lando Norris, reserve talent Stoffel Vandoorne and Esteban Gutierrez, and legend Nico Hülkenburg. Formula 2 racers, Academy drivers, and pros from other series filled out the starting grid. Odds for these events have been popular betting options over the last few weeks. Heading into the next event, Team Renault is favorites to win a 4/1 with McLaren (5/1) and Mercedes (6/1), taking the next two spots on the odds board. The latter is an interesting play at those odds considering Guiterrez and Vandoorne are both F1 test drivers and gamers, making Mercedes a strong contender. These are just three of the major series going on right now, but IMSA, Porche, and the WRC all have eSports events running on a weekly basis. These series will continue to run and provide betting options even when real-world racing returns to action. This is the perfect time for the sports betting industry to embrace not only eSports but the competitive virtual racing scene. PayPerHead® agents can stand to benefit massively from this emerging sport. Especially during these trying times, having a weekly event for fans to bet on is a powerful thing. Any time you can get your clients interested in new events is time well spent. If your pay per head service provider does not include eSports on their list of odds, then it might be time to find a better option. At PayPerHead®, we pride ourselves on offering odds on a slew of virtual and simulation sports to keep your players busy while we await the return of major sports nationwide. If you are ready to switch providers to a company that offers a better variety of odd, then head over to the PayPerHead® and see what offers we have for new clients today!
    The Benefits of Gambling Online Indonesia vs. Real Casinos The Benefits of Gambling Online Indonesia You will not regret at all to choose gambling online Indonesia as your main game because they give you anything in return for long time.
    Are sporting bettors turning to online gambling games? Sports Bettors Turning to Gambling Games? Betting on sports is a primary engine room for the US gambling industry, with the general public laying down bets worth more than $12bn during the 16 months to October 2019. Of that sizable figure, almost $1bn went to sportsbooks.
    Heard about dutching in sports betting yet? What is dutch betting? An Explanation of Dutch Betting Have you ever been in this situation in sports betting before where you feel as though team A is quite strong but not strong enough to beat team B, but you don’t see the match ending in a draw too?
    Some of the best NBA Players- Season 2019/2020 The Best NBA Players for the 2019-20 Season This year’s season, even though it had to undergo an indefinite pause due to the unexpected coronavirus pandemic, was a big season for the NBA, with numerous highly talented players playing for overall great teams, it was progressing to be a very interesting season, with big games and thrilling matchups, thanks to the talent of the following players and lots more. Thanks to a huge number of greatly talented players in all teams, the NBA became the perfect sport for betting, due to a high unpredictability to how games would end. This made betting on players and games in the sport much more thrilling and enjoyable. One can try out betting on the NBA at countless sources, like comeon for example.