Betting news, trends, odds and predictions from various handicappers and websites for Tuesday 6/4/19
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RBC Canadian Open
Hamilton Golf and Country Club – Par 70 – 6, 966
While basketball fans supporting the Toronto Raptors anxiously await what befalls their team with the NBA Finals shifting out to Oakland for Games 3 and 4, golf fans in the city of Toronto get to see their annual event – the RBC Canadian Open shift locations on the schedule and venue as well.
After four straight years of the Canadian Open being held just outside Toronto at the “bomb and gougefest” known as Glen Abbey Golf Course, the 2019 Canadian Open heads south down the highway to the Hamilton Golf and Country Club. It's a course that has hosted this event a few times before – most recently in 2012 – as it's a venue that's steeped in tradition north of the border, and one that is definitely deserving of being in “the rotation” for the country's national open.
Golf fans in Canada are also dealing with the fact that this tournament is in a new spot on the PGA Tour schedule a week before the US Open, rather than holding down the slot a week after the British Open in late July as it had for years. That subtle switch does help the quality of the field for the Canadian Open increase, as it's far less travel to deal with for most, and it's not like plenty of guys don't subscribe to the notion that playing a week before a Major helps them prepare for one of the season's biggest events.
The RBC sponsorship always brings out the guys toting that logo on their bag – Dustin Johnson, Matt Kuchar and Brandt Snedeker to name a few – but even though the 'bomb and gouge' reputation this event has gotten doesn't specifically apply this week as it would if it were at Glen Abbey, some of the Tour's biggest hitters will be teeing it up in Hamilton this week. Guys like Justin Thomas – who needs to shake off some injury rust as it is – Rory McIlroy, and Brooks Koepka will all be in the field this week, and those names, along with DJ and Kuchar top the odds board for the event.
Glen Abbey was always a track that gave the longest hitters such an advantage – winners during the last four years when held there were Jason Day, Jonathan Vegas (twice) and Dustin Johnson – and while length won't hurt you here in Hamilton, you'd better be accurate, because the rough will be much thicker then anything these guys saw at Glen Abbey. Fairways and greens will always lead to some level of success, but it will be a great indicator of who ends up on top this week, as it's also a great prep spot for what the guys will see next week at Pebble Beach under the USGA setup.
This year's Canadian Open winner won't have four Par 5's to dominate as they have in the past at Glen Abbey either, as there are only two on the course here, albeit both very reachable by basically the entire field. The 5th hole at Hamilton Golf and Country Club is also a driveable Par 4 at less than 320 yards, so it's not like having length doesn't hurt.
That's especially true for when these guys have to deal with the Par 3's at this track, as three of the four of them are over 200 yards, and bunker protection on all four of them can lead to a few crooked numbers or two. Scott Piercy (+2800) won here in it's most recent Tour stop back in 2012, and given that he's currently T3 on Tour in Par 3 scoring this season, you can understand why his name will pop up in some predictions out there.
Yet, he's not someone that is making my board this week as it's one of the favorites along with two of the mid-tier guys that I believe will find there way to the top of the leaderboard over the weekend.
Golfers to Watch
Rory McIlroy (+1000) – Rory took in Game 2 of the NBA Finals on Sunday evening in Toronto as a missed cut at the Memorial gave him some extra time to get through customs. It was his first MC of the season, and this will be his first time at this course as it will be for many in the field. And while his game may have been better suited for the bomb and gouge style Glen Abbey rewards, the #4 ranked player in the world shouldn't have too much trouble finding success out in Hamilton.
Rory's the best on Tour this year in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and Tee-to-green, 2nd in Strokes Gained: Total, and 5th in the Approach metric as well. Obviously those are big reasons as to why he's one of the favorites here, but with DJ as the defending champ, and Koepka coming off a Major win and looking for his own three-peat next week, Rory's missed cut last week takes a bit of the steam out of his name this week.
On top of all that, McIlroy is best in the field in terms of Par 3 scoring this year – along with Scott Piercy – and while that's only translated to a 60th ranking on Tour in terms of birdie or better numbers for him on Par 3's, the fact that his length will allow him to hit shorter clubs than most to all of those 200+ yard Par 3's is a huge advantage. And then you give him all those ball striking advantages on the Par 4's and 5's, with some added motivation after a missed cut, and a 10-1 price on one of the best players in the world starts to look a little short.
Finally, if there was some extra motivation needed here, a win for Rory would make him just the sixth golfer in the history of the PGA Tour to win the “Open Triple Crown” - British, US and Canadian Opens – behind Lee Trevino, Tiger Woods – both of whom did it in the same year – Walter Hagen, Tommy Armour, and Arnold Palmer. That's quite the list McIlroy could add his name too, and it's hard not to like his chances this week.
Aaron Wise (+6600) – Aaron Wise is a name that broke through last year with his first career win, and at just 22 years of age, this is one guy on Tour who's got a very bright future. He's not got a complete game by any means, as his weak links tend to be in the approach game and with the putter, but the latter is always something that's so volatile as it is that poor putting numbers shouldn't be the only thing to steer you away from any guy you like in any field in this type of odds range and beyond.
Where Wise's strengths should come into play this week is his distance off the tee (31st), and his ability to score on Par 3's. Wise is T5th on Tour in Par 3 scoring, just behind McIlroy and Piercy in that category in the field this week, but where he separates himself from those two, and nearly everyone else in the field there is with his Par 3 birdie or better numbers. Wise fell to 9th in that category overall after entering last week 6th, but only Justin Thomas and Danny Lee have better numbers in this field then Wise's 17.93% Par 3 birdie or better number.
Like Rory, Wise's overall length will give him shorter clubs than most on those Par 3 holes, and as long as the rest of his game can hold up on some very scoreable holes elsewhere, his second Top 10 of the season should be the end result.
Ryan Palmer (+6600) – Palmer is a RBC brand golfer who didn't get a mention earlier, as he was always going to get more careful consideration here. He is someone that played in Hamilton back in 2012, and his T19 finish there was highly disappointing in the sense that he carded a final round 72 (+2) to kill any hopes of being the winner.
Currently, he's a guy that's had two Top 6 finishes in his last seven starts, and that's not even including his win in the team event down in New Orleans at the end of April. His Par 3 birdie or better ranking comes in at 25th overall on Tour, a spot that's good enough for a Top 10 spot in that category in this field, and with his overall numbers being solid except with his scrambling around the green – not a huge concern this week as if a guy is constantly scrambling it will be tough to have a chance regardless – there isn't a whole lot to like about his chances at this price.
RBC Canadian Open - per Sportsbetting.ag
Dustin Johnson 6/1
Brooks Koepka 13/2
Rory McIlroy 10/1
Justin Thomas 16/1
Matt Kuchar 22/1
Webb Simpson 22/1
Scott Piercy 28/1
Sergio Garcia 28/1
Henrik Stenson 33/1
Brandt Snedeker 40/1
Bubba Watson 40/1
Shane Lowry 40/1
Bud Cauley 50/1
Jason Dufner 50/1
Jim Furyk 50/1
Ryan Palmer 50/1
Aaron Wise 66/1
Joaquin Niemann 66/1
Keegan Bradley 66/1
Adam Hadwin 80/1
Alex Noren 80/1
Austin Cook 80/1
Brian Harman 80/1
Daniel Berger 80/1
Jimmy Walker 80/1
Jonas Blixt 80/1
Kevin Tway 80/1
Lucas Bjerregaard 80/1
Sungjae Im 80/1
Corey Conners 100/1
Erik Van Rooyen 100/1
Graeme McDowell 100/1
J B Holmes 100/1
Zach Johnson 100/1
Brian Gay 125/1
Danny Lee 125/1
Danny Willett 125/1
Dylan Frittelli 125/1
Kyoung-Hoon Lee 125/1
Mackenzie Hughes 125/1
Nick Watney 125/1
Russell Henley 125/1
Scott Stallings 125/1
Shawn Stefani 125/1
Trey Mullinax 125/1
Bill Haas 150/1
David Lingmerth 150/1
Denny McCarthy 150/1
Harold Varner III 150/1
Kramer Hickok 150/1
Martin Laird 150/1
Matt Every 150/1
Nick Taylor 150/1
Peter Malnati 150/1
Peter Uihlein 150/1
Ryan Armour 150/1
Talor Gooch 150/1
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By Joe Williams
The PGA TOUR heads north of the border for the RBC Canadian Open at Hamilton Golf and Country Club in Ancaster, Ontario. The event hasn't been played at this venue since 2012 when Scott Piercy won, while also hosting in 2006 and 2003.
Each week we'll take a look at the best round matchups to try and build up a nice bankroll.
Corey Conners (-120) vs. Jonas Blixt (-110): Conners is the favorite in this one, and it's likely because of home-course advantage. Well, Conners is from Alberta, not Ontario, but he'll have the fans outside of the ropes on his side since he is Canadian. This is the one event all players from the Great White North want to do well, and Conners has the tools for success. He is 43rd in Driving Accuracy Percentage, while ranking sixth in Greens In Regulation (GIR), hitting 71.92 percent of his greens. He also ranks 16th in Strokes Gained: Approach the Green, so he checks a lot of the boxes for success at Hamilton.
Jim Furyk (-130) vs. Shane Lowry (+100): Furyk might be getting a little long in the tooth at 49 years old, but he still exhibits plenty of patience on the golf course, with an even-keel style even when things aren't going his way, tremendous finesse and a lot of experience. He missed the cut the last time this event was in Hamilton back in 2012, but he won the Canadian open at Hamilton G&CC back in 2006. He has made the cut in 10 of his 15 events this season, including three top-10s, and he is playing at a high level despite his advanced age.
Adam Hadwin (-130) vs. Sung Kang (+100): Again, I'll take a Canadian over a non-Canadian in this event any day of the week. He missed the cut in this event back in 2006, but he was just a young buck then. He also shot 4-under 66 in the opening round before nerves set in and shot him down the leaderboard and under the cut line. He ranks 39th in accuracy off the tee, and he is an impressive scrambler and putter, too. Hadwin has the chance to not only make the cut and beat Kang, but challenge for a top-20 showing.
Scott Piercy (+105) vs. Sergio Garcia (-135): I'll roll with Piercy, who won this event back in 2012 when it was played in Hamilton. His knowledge of the course, albeit seven years ago, is invaluable. The 40-year-old has been no slouch this season, either, making seven consecutive cuts, and 16 of 18 overall, including a runner-up at the AT&T Byron Nelson and a third-place showing at the RBC Heritage,. breaking the bank for $358.8K in that South Carolina event with the same sponsor. Can lightning strike twice? The table is set nicely.
Scott Piercy (+100) vs. Henrik Stenson (-130): If Piercy doesn't show out, his selection could be costly times two. But I like the fact he has won at this course before, and he is playing well lately while Stenson is spinning his wheels in neutral. The Swede has finished 20th or higher in each of his past six singular events, and he has just one top-10 showing in 11 events this season.
Last event (Charles Schwab): 4-0 (+400)
This season: 16-21-2 (-740)
Top 20 Finish - Scott Piercy (-115): Again, I'm going all-in on Piercy this week. I like the way he is playing lately, as well as that win at Hamilton last time this event was played here in 2012.
Top 20 Finish - Brandt Snedeker (+125): Snedeker's even-keel and finesse, similar to Furyk, will serve him well this week. Snedeker ranks second in SG: Around the Green, and 26th in SG: Total. He is also 15th in Putts Per Round (28.34), so if he can avoid mistakes off the tee, look out.
Top 20 Finish - Adam Hadwin and Corey Conners (+260): I am flying the Maple Leaf flag loud and proud, backing the two Canadians for a top-20 showing.
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