Betting news, trends, odds and predictions for from various handicappers and websites for Wednesday 5/29/19
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The Memorial Tournament
Muirfield Village – Par 72 – 7,392 yards
We are a week away from a two-week stretch of North American National Opens on Tour with the Canadian and US Open's on deck, but the week spent at Muirfield Village for “Jack's Tournament” is always one that's special to every single guy on Tour.
This is a tournament that's held in high regard of all the regular PGA Tour stops the guys make each year, and to win at Muirfield means you've got your game going in the right direction as you head into the summer months. This is a track where the 'bomb and gouge' strategy can go to die with the rough being so penal, and nearly 80 bunkers scattered throughout the 18 holes aren't your typical day at the beach either. Water lurks on more than half the holes on the course, and Jack Nicklaus wouldn't have his name associated with an event like this if there weren't fast greens and minimal flat lies to deal with as well.
Accuracy with every club in the bag – like it is most weeks on Tour – is essential here, but with no significant advantage to guys who hold the edge in the length department either, the winner of the Memorial is going to have four days of golf to remember.
Speaking of winners here, four of the last seven winners at Muirfield didn't tee it up at the event the year prior, and each of the last five winners all closed with odds of +6000 or greater. That doesn't mean there aren't some recognizable names on that list though, as defending champ Bryson DeChambeau can count his name among that list, as can Jason Dufner (2017), David Lingmerth (2015), and Hideki Matsuyama (2014). Considering that a win here can be a great stepping stone for guys to take that next step in their careers, young, promising names, should definitely be considered this week.
And one more name that can't be left out at all at the Memorial is Tiger Woods. Woods has won this event five times in his career – including three straight from 1999-2001 – with the most recent coming back in 2012 before his injuries really started to take hold. Given the resurgence we've seen from him the past 12+ months, you'd be foolish not to think Tiger has a chance this week, although the +1100 price tag on him does leave plenty to be desired.
That being said, that run of guys with +6000 or greater odds winning this event could easily get snapped this week as there are plenty of great names below that range, but it's still the longer shots that dominate this week's list of golfers to watch.
Golfers to Watch
Xander Schauffele - (+2500) – There might not be a better name out there that fits the mold of the Matsuyama's and DeChambeau's to have won here in the past as a young budding star than Schauffele this week. Xander has already announced his presence at big stage events before with wins at the 2017 Tour Championship, 2018 WGC-HSBC Champions and 2019 Tournament of Champions, so it's not a perfect fit of the mold, but you can't deny that this guy's got the game to excel at and event like this, even if his maiden voyage at Muirfield last year didn't go according to plan.
Schauffele missed the cut here a year ago, but it was only by two strokes, and the bulk of those were lost with an opening round 75. I don't expect those same mistakes to pop up a year later for him, and statistically there's plenty ot like about his game for this course. Schauffele is ranked in the Top 30 on Tour in four different Strokes Gained categories – Off the tee, approach, tee-to-green, and total, with his worst ranking in the other two (around the green and putting) being 56th in his scrambling.
Situationally, he's a guy that's in a good spot to bounce back after missing the cut last week at the Charles Schwab Challenge – again by a single stroke – and outside of that result and a missed cut at The PLAYERS, his other eight starts over his last 10 events have finishes of 1, 25, 10, 15, 14, 2, 63, and 16. That's about as consistent as it gets on Tour, and with big names, but not all the big names, out there sharing the course with him this week, I expect Schauffele to announce his presence to the world once again this week.
Joel Dahmen (+10000) - “Mr Bucket Hat” himself is like Schauffele in that he too missed the cut last week by a single stroke, as a poor opening round 74 gave him the weekend off to regroup. He's still a guy that as four Top 16 finishes in his last eight starts though,and would love to grab his first career win at Jack's event.
This being his maiden voyage around Muirfield Village in competition play does bring concerns that are reflected in this price, but for someone who's very accurate off the tee - 18th in driving accuracy percentage – he should be able to take advantage of the wider than normal fairways here. From there, it's all about dialing in his approach game, and with a GIR% of 67 this season, you've got to like his chances in doing so.
He's a guy that has rarely missed two cuts in a row this season, so the bounce back angle is there like it is for Xander, and while putting on these slick greens might give some bettors concerns with Dahmen, all it takes is a few to drop early for him and the confidence will only grow from there. Putting is such a fickle thing for these guys on a weekly basis as it is, but Dahmen's ball striking should be more then enough to put him in the mix, and at 100-1 what more can you ask for?
Adam Hadwin (+12500) – Hadwin is a guy that skipped last week's Tour stop after a T29 at the PGA, and while his stats aren't what most would prefer to see here, and back-to-back missed cuts at Muirfield the past two years don't inspire a tremendous amount of confidence, it's not like he hasn't played well here in the past.
Hadwin finished 11th here in 2016, and considering his finishes have been steadily improving over his past three starts – 48th, 38th, 29th – it's not like we couldn't see him in a Top 10 or 20 slot at some point on Saturday. From there you'd hope a guy who was known for his putting on Tour just a few years ago would get the flatstick going on these slick greens and then let the chips fall where they may.
Chipping is not something you'd want to see Hadwin do too much this week, but if he's missing greens from the fairway - 29th in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee this year – then this 125-1 shot is going to prove that price was warranted. But for a guy who's 12th on Tour in Par 5 scoring this year (4.51 strokes per hole), on a course where all four Par 5's are easily birdie holes, if Hadwin takes advantage of those spots and then holds serve nearly everywhere else, this price will end up being a steal.
The Memorial Tournament - per Sportsbetting.ag
Rory McIlroy 9/1
Tiger Woods 11/1
Patrick Cantlay 14/1
Justin Rose 16/1
Rickie Fowler 16/1
Jordan Spieth 18/1
Justin Thomas 18/1
Matt Kuchar 18/1
Jason Day 20/1
Tony Finau 22/1
Hideki Matsuyama 25/1
Xander Schauffele 25/1
Adam Scott 33/1
Bryson DeChambeau 33/1
Gary Woodland 33/1
Henrik Stenson 40/1
Louis Oosthuizen 40/1
Emiliano Grillo 50/1
Kyle Stanley 50/1
Marc Leishman 50/1
Phil Mickelson 50/1
Rory Sabbatini 50/1
Billy Horschel 66/1
Kevin Kisner 66/1
Charley Hoffman 80/1
Hao-Tong Li 80/1
Jason Kokrak 80/1
Keegan Bradley 80/1
Lucas Glover 80/1
Luke List 80/1
Matthew Fitzpatrick 80/1
Peter Uihlein 80/1
Tyrrell Hatton 80/1
Aaron Wise 100/1
Abraham Ancer 100/1
Alex Noren 100/1
Byeong Hun An 100/1
Charles Howell 100/1
Jim Furyk 100/1
Joel Dahmen 100/1
Kevin Streelman 100/1
Kiradech Aphibarnrat 100/1
Rafael Cabrera Bello 100/1
Ryan Moore 100/1
Sung Kang 100/1
Adam Hadwin 125/1
Andrew Putnam 125/1
Cameron Smith 125/1
Corey Conners 125/1
Jason Dufner 125/1
Jhonattan Vegas 125/1
Keith Mitchell 125/1
Pat Perez 125/1
Si-Woo Kim 125/1
Beau Hossler 150/1
Branden Grace 150/1
Danny Willett 150/1
J B Holmes 150/1
Joost Luiten 150/1
Martin Kaymer 150/1
Nick Watney 150/1
Sam Burns 150/1
Sung-Jae Im 150/1
Memorial Tournament Matchups
The PGA Tour heads to Jack’s place this week for the Memorial Tournament with Rory McIlroy listed as the favorite. It is a strong field with more than half of the Top 30 in the latest FedExCup standings in the field.
Not only can you bet on a player to win the overall tournament at BetDSI, but you can also bet the head-to-head matchups. We were 3-1-1 with the matchups last week at the Charles Schwab Challenge.
Let’s look at the matchups and golf picks for this week’s Memorial Tournament.
Memorial Tournament Matchups at BetDSI
Rory McIlroy -164 vs. Justin Rose
Justin Rose -115 vs. Tiger Woods
Rory McIlroy -149 vs. Tiger Woods
Byeong Hun An -135 vs. Andrew Putnam
Phil Mickelson -120 vs. Rory Sabbatini
Gary Woodland -127 vs. Bryson DeChambeau
Aaron Wise -115 vs. Charley Hoffman
Louis Oosthuizen -120 vs. Emiliano Grillo
Patrick Cantlay -123 vs. Justin Thomas
Russell Knox -123 vs. Kiradech Aphibarnrat
Lucas Glover -120 vs. Tyrrell Hatton
Jim Furyk -115 vs. Hao-Tong Li
Xander Schauffele -118 vs. Adam Scott
Tony Finau -122 vs. Hideki Matsuyama
Matthew Fitzpatrick -127 vs. Luke List
Kevin Kisner -127 vs. Marc Leishman
Jason Kokrak -147 vs. Kyle Stanley
Jason Day -143 vs. Jordan Spieth
Rickie Fowler -143 vs. Jordan Spieth
Keegan Bradley -120 vs. Billy Horschel
Patrick Cantlay -127 vs. Matt Kuchar
Matt Kuchar -127 vs. Justin Thomas
Sung Hoon Kang -127 vs. Peter Uihlein
Rickie Fowler -116 vs. Jason Day
Memorial Tournament Matchup Picks
Before we get to the picks we’ll consider the course. Muirfield Village Golf Club is a par 72 that plays pretty long at about 7,400 yards. The course has big fairways, but there are a lot of bunkers and water hazards and the course is known as a second shot course.
Rory McIlroy -149 vs. Tiger Woods
Rory has five top 15 finishes in his tournament and he has the distance and the accuracy to do really well this week. Tiger got a lot of love after the Masters, but he was a bust in the PGA. At this point in their careers, Rory is simply the better player. We’ll take Rory in this matchup.
Matt Kuchar -127 vs. Justin Thomas
Kuchar has been really good at Muirfield in his career with 122 strokes gained over the field in his last nine starts at the course. Kuchar has played really well this season and he should be in contention this week. Normally we like Thomas, but he is coming off a wrist injury and it may take him some time to get back into form. We’ll take Kuchar in this matchup.
Hideki Matsuyama -108 vs. Tony Finau
Matsuyama won this event in 2014 and he could be in contention again this week. He goes against a hot player in Finau, but Finau could struggle a bit if his accuracy is off. It is also hard to come back a week after having a chance to win and failing. We’ll go with Matsuyama in this matchup.
Kyle Stanley +117 vs. Jason Kokrak
We are a little surprised at the price on this one. We know that Kokrak is playing well, but he has made the cut just once in five previous tries in this event. He has lost strokes to the field in 8 of his last 12 rounds. Stanley isn’t having a great season, but we know he does well at Muirfield, as he finished second last season. We’ll take a shot with the underdog in this matchup.
Gary Woodland -127 vs. Bryson DeChambeau
We thought that DeChambeau would bounce back last week and it didn’t happen and we were fortunate to get a push in our matchup with him. DeChambeau is the defending champion of this event, but that may not help him this week, as his game seems to be off. Woodland is having a very good season and he has excellent strokes gained off the tree numbers and on approach. He has played well at Muirfield in the past with four top 25 finishes, including two in the top six. We’ll take Woodland in this matchup.