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Preakness Stakes Betting News

Preakness Stakes Betting News 3 days 18 hours ago #506050

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Betting news, trends, odds and predictions from various handicappers and websites for Friday 5/17/19
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Preakness Stakes Betting News 3 days 18 hours ago #506051

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The 2019 Preakness is set for Saturday, May 18, 2019 from Pimlico Race Course in Maryland.

Country House, the 65-1 longshot who captured the Kentucky Derby victory by disqualification, will not run in the second jewel of the Triple Crown due to a developing cough. This will be the first time in 23 years that the Kentucky Derby winner will not compete in the Preakness.

Maximum Security, the horse that was knocked out of first place in the Derby, will also not race in the Preakness.

Bettors can start placing early wagers on the Preakness Stakes at Sportsbook.ag with fixed odds up until the race, which has an expected post time of 6:45 p.m. ET.

Listed below are horses that are expected to be in the field.

Odds to win 2019 Preakness Stakes
Improbable 5/2
War of Will 4/1
Anothertwistafate 6/1
Bourbon War 6/1
Alwaysmining 8/1
Owendale 10/1
Warriors's Charge 12/1
Win Win Win 15/1
Bodexpress 20/1
Laughing Fox 20/1
Market King 30/1
Signalman 30/1
Everfast 50/1
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Preakness Stakes Betting News 2 days 17 hours ago #506106

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The 2019 Preakness Stakes won’t have the Kentucky Derby winner, but it will have Improbable, trained by Bob Baffert and Baffert has won the Preakness seven times. Improbable finished fourth in the Kentucky Derby and the three horses that finished ahead of him are not running in Saturday’s Preakness.

Only four horses that ran in the Derby are in the Preakness and only two of those, Improbable and War of Will are considered serious threats. Let’s look at Saturday’s race and Preakness picks.

Preakness Odds at BetDSI
Improbable +200
War Of Will +300
Bourbon War +650
Alwaysmining +800
Anothertwistafate +800
Win Win Win +1000
Owendale +1100
Warrior's Charge +1200
Signalman +1400
Bodexpress +2000
Laughing Fox +2000
Market King +2000

Favorite

Improbable was an official disappointment in the Derby, as the horse didn’t make up any ground. The horse was thought to be the best of the Baffert horses in the Derby and yet he did nothing once again. Could it be that Improbable just isn’t as good as advertised? One thing we do know is that we are not taking him at odds of 2-1.

Contenders

War of Will is one of the horses that got hurt by Maximum Security going wide in the Derby. Whether or not War of Will would have been good enough to win we don’t know, but the horse gets another chance on Saturday. This is another horse that looks overvalued at odds of 3-1.

The other three horses listed at single-digit odds at BetDSI are Bourbon War, Alwaysmining and Anothertwistafate. Bourbon War is going to need a fast pace to win and he might get that in the Preakness. The horse was last seen finishing fourth in the Florida Derby, but that race didn’t have a fast pace.

Alwaysmining is a Maryland-bred horse that will be popular at Pimlico but he is going to be overvalued. He has a trainer and jockey who are known in Maryland but not really known on the national stage. Alwaysmining has been great at Laurel Park, but this is a big step up in class. Anothertwistafate has finished first or second in his last five races and he gets a boost with Jose Ortiz taking over in the irons. The horse has speed and he was right with Owendale in the Lexington.

Dark Horse

Owendale came from off the pace to win the Lexington Stakes at odds of 12-1. The horse lost badly to War of Will in the Risen Star Stakes in February, but he has made some solid improvements since then. If Owendale goes off at double-digit odds he is worth considering and he is definitely worth a shot at BetDSI at the current odds of +1100.

Preakness Field by Post Position and Morning Line Odds
1. War of Will (4-1) Trainer: Mark Casse, Jockey: Tyler Gaffalione
2. Bourbon War (12-1) Trainer: Mark Hennig, Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr.
3. Warrior's Charge (12-1) Trainer: Brad Cox, Jockey: Javier Castellano
4. Improbable (5-2) Trainer: Bob Baffert, Jockey: Mike Smith
5. Owendale (10-1) Trainer: Brad Cox, Jockey: Florent Geroux
6. Market King (30-1) Trainer: D. Wayne Lukas, Jockey: Jon Court
7. Alwaysmining (8-1) Trainer: Kelly Rubley, Jockey: Daniel Centeno
8. Signalman (30-1) Trainer: Kenny McPeek, Jockey: Brian Hernandez Jr.
9. Bodexpress (20-1) Trainer: Gustavo Delgado, Jockey: John Velazquez
10. Everfast (50-1) Trainer: Dale Romans, Jockey: Joel Rosario
11. Laughing Fox (20-1) Trainer: Steve Asmussen, Jockey: Ricardo Santana Jr.
12. Anothertwistafate (6-1) Trainer: Blaine Wright, Jockey: Jose Ortiz
13. Win Win Win (15-1) Trainer: Michael Trombetta, Jockey: Julian Pimentel

Preakness Picks

There is no value in taking either of the top two favorites, as Improbable and War of Will are overvalued. We like Bourbon War and we are very surprised he is listed at 12-1 on the morning line. We also think that Owendale is a live longshot and we like the current odds of 11-1 at BetDSI. We’ll take Bourbon War and Owendale to win and also play those two in exacta and trifecta boxes along with Improbable and Win Win Win.

The 2019 Preakness takes place on Saturday with a start time of 6:48 p.m. Eastern on NBC.
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Preakness Stakes Betting News 2 days 17 hours ago #506107

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by Kyle Markus

Preakness Stakes Long shots

In usual years at the Preakness Stakes, all eyes are on the Kentucky Derby winner to see if they can add the second leg of the Triple Crown with a win at Pimlico. This season, though, the field is not going to have the Kentucky Derby winner or several of the other prominent horses.

Country House won the Kentucky Derby but has been sidelined with a respiratory infection. Maximum Security actually finished first at the Derby but was disqualified and won’t race at the Preakness. Omaha Beach is another prominent horse that won’t be racing.

So what does it mean? Well, there is still a list of favored horses in the watered-down field, but it also seems like a golden opportunity for some of the longshots to make a move at the Preakness Stakes in horse racing betting.

The Preakness Stakes will be held at Pimlico Racecourse in Baltimore, Maryland at 5 p.m. ET on Saturday, May 18th, 2019. The race will be nationally televised on NBC.

Odds Analysis

Improbable 2-1
War of Will 3-1
Alwaysmining 8-1
Win Win Win 8-1
Bourbon War 10-1
Owendale 10-1
Anothertwistafate 12-1
Signalman 14-1
Bodexpress 16-1
Warriors’s Charge 16-1
Laughing Fox 20-1
Market King 20-1

Longshots

Improbable is the horse to beat at the Preakness Stakes with War of Will the main expected contender. Improbable is trained by the legendary Bob Baffert, which is a huge advantage because of his unparalleled experience and ability.

However, some of the other horses in the field figure to be in contention despite the long odds placed by the oddsmakers. Alwaysmining is an 8-1 longshot but is an interesting option. He was bred and raised in Maryland and is familiar with the surroundings. Alwaysmining has won a lot on his career, although it hasn’t always been against the best competition. The talent is undeniable, but the question is if there is enough experience against a talented field.

Win Win Win was a fashionable pick in the Kentucky Derby but did not live up to expectations. However, the conditions there were not right for a true challenge and he will aim to bounce back in this one. Signalman is an interesting pick at 14-1 odds because he has good closing speed and simply needs to stick close enough to have a chance down the stretch.

The longshots in this race would love to follow in the footsteps of Country House, who was a 65-to-1 longshot and was able to capture the Kentucky Derby victory, which paid off handsomely for those who backed him. A logjam in the middle of the race helped, as did the rainy conditions. The weather is expected to be better for the Preakness Stakes but anything can happen in an individual race, which is why the underdogs are piquing the interest of horse racing bettors.

Free Horse Racing Picks

This is a dirt surface race that is 1 3/16 of a mile, so it will be interesting to see how that layout affects the field of horses. Alwaysmining and Win Win Win might not be in the same category as Improbable or War of Will, but they are decent bets to win the Preakness.

However, in such a muddled field, it’s best to take the most favorable odds for a horse that has a legitimate shot at shocking the field. Signalman is that horse as he will aim to follow Country House’s lead and stun the rest of the pack in horse racing odds.

Horse Racing Pick: Signalman to win the Preakness Stakes at 14-1 odds
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Preakness Stakes Betting News 2 days 17 hours ago #506108

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By Anthony Stabile

The second leg of the "Triple Crown" is set and the field is ready for the 144th running of the Preakness Stakes!


2019 Breakdown
PP - Horse ML Odds Jockey (Preakness Record) Trainer (Preakness Record)

1 – War of Will 4/1 Tyler Gaffalione (Debut) Mark Casse (0-4)
Notes: Boy, has he been on some roller coaster ride this year. Before his debacle in the Louisiana Derby when his three-race win streak was snapped, there was a good chance he was going to be the Kentucky Derby favorite. But he came out of that hurt. And then he was fine. And then he was training great. And then he drew the rail. End of story, right? Wrong. Gaffalione did a spectacular job working out a clean trip from the draw and was ready to make his move to the lead in the Kentucky Derby. And then………Look, we all know what went down. There are two camps. The first thinks he was never going by Maximum Security and that HE caused the problems and then there all the rational people like me who believe he was greatly affected and could have actually won. Either way, he showed up in Louisville off the six-week break and that spoke volumes to me. I think he has a big chance to win this and he’ll be on all of my tickets.

2 – Bourbon War 12/1 Irad Ortiz, Jr. (0-1) Mark Hennig (0-2)
Notes: I’ve liked this horse since the day he broke his maiden at Aqueduct last fall. He ran well in the Remsen just 17 days later, was good in his allowance score at Gulfstream and even better when his rally fell a bit short in the Fountain of Youth. He had no chance in the Florida Derby when the winner waltzed on the front end. Now, he has a bit of a freshening, gets a course more conducive to his late running style and some added distance. His jock doesn’t hurt either, or the addition of blinkers, which will hopefully make him a little keen and focused.

3 – Warrior’s Charge 12/1 Javier Castellano (2-7) Brad Cox (Debut)
Notes: Finished third in his first three tries from off the pace before putting it all together two back when his connections changed tactics and put him on the front end. Still eligible for a second level allowance contest and his pedigree does not suggest the extra furlong this offers over his last two tallies will do him any favors. I’ll pass.

4 – Improbable 5/2 Mike Smith (2-17) Bob Baffert (7-19)
Notes: I’ve watched the replay of the Derby from start to finish about a dozen times and the incident on the far turn around 50 more times. When you get a chance, do each one time and just focus on this horse. You’ll see what I see. He didn’t do one step of running. “Evenly” should be the short comment in the chart. What a non-effort. Now, he’s the morning line favorite, comes in for America’s Trainer and gets “Money” Mike. He will take boatloads of money. Not a dollar of it will be mine, save in a couple of “All” slots in trifectas. I know it can be hard to resist the temptation of just defaulting to this horse when you handicap the race but try. You’ll thank me later.

5 - Owendale 10/1 Florent Geroux (0-3) Brad Cox (Debut)
Notes: I’ve taken my fair share of shots at Geroux but that was a hell of a ride he gave this horse to win the Lexington. He put him in the perfect spot, pulled the trigger in the short-stretch of the 8.5 furlongs at Keeneland at just the right time and was able to last late. I do, however, feel that he was also the beneficiary of some bad racing luck for his rivals, namely the runner-up Anothertwistafate. I’m not certain he was best last time and the chances of him getting all of the breaks again are against him. A peripheral player, at best, for me.

6 – Market King 30/1 Jon Court (0-1) D. Wayne Lukas (6-43)
Notes: A gate scratch in the Pat Day Mile on the Derby undercard, he wasn’t even cleared to race in this until earlier this week as he was on the vet’s list. No thanks.

7 – Alwaysmining 8/1 Daniel Centeno (Debut) Kelly Rubley (Debut)
Notes: We haven’t seen a Maryland-bred win this in over three decades and Rubley would be the first female trainer to ever win a Triple Crown event. Combine that with his “local horse” status and you have an amazing, feel-good story that could steer the attention away from the Derby That Won’t End. Unfortunately, they run these races on the track and not with Mr. Rogers in the Land of Make Believe. He’s not facing the toughest Preakness field ever assembled but they’re killers compared to what he’s beaten, albeit, soundly. Bottom line is, he wins, I lose.

8 - Signalman 30/1 Brian Hernandez, Jr. (0-1) Ken McPeek (0-3)
Notes: Morning lines are a very tricky thing to make and for the most part it is a thankless job. But this is just stupid. This horse won’t be 30-1 and he shouldn’t be 30-1. He’s run one “bad” race and that was off of a three-month break over a short stretch run race at Gulfstream, hardly the place for a horse with his running style. He’s run well and been in the trifecta in his other six starts. He’s gaining ground at the end of most of his races, he’s making his third start off of the break and he’ll have plenty of pace to run into. A definite player, he’ll be included in all of my exotic plays and maybe even on a backup pick four ticket.

9 – Bodexpress 20/1 John Velazquez (0-8) Gustavo Delgado (Debut)
Notes: He found a little trouble in the Derby incident and gets a Hall of Fame rider for this but I’m sticking by my mantra: Maidens do not belong in these races!

10 – Everfast 50/1 Joel Rosario (0-5) Dale Romans (1-6)
Notes: He’s run three races in which he’s been competitive and seven where he has been noting more than an also-ran. Was a very late edition to the party on Wednesday. Not sure why. I wouldn’t use him with counterfeit cash.

11 – Laughing Fox 20/1 Ricardo Santana, Jr. (0-1) Steve Asmussen (2-8)
Notes: He is as sneaky a longshot as can be in this heat. He lost all chance at the start of the Rebel and didn’t love the slop in the Arkansas Derby. He’s won his other three starts this year in come-from-behind fashion and has plenty of pedigree to suggest the added distance will suit him. The two-week turnaround is my lone concern but his price more than makes up for it. Including him in all exotic plays and on a backup pick four ticket.

12 – Anothertwistafate 6/1 Jose Ortiz (0-2) Blaine Wright (-)
Notes: Sorry, but I’ve never understood the infatuation by many with this horse. He’s winless on dirt as all three of his scores have come against far inferior competition on the synthetic surface at Golden Gate Fields. He ran well in the Sunland Derby and got himself into a tough spot in the Lexington but I don’t think those efforts will get it done here. I also feel he has plateaued while others in here have some blue sky. I wouldn’t be surprised if his rider, one of the best around on the front end, reverts back to the gate-to-wire strategy used in all three of his wins, which would seemingly make his job that much tougher. I’m against him.

13 – Win Win Win 15/1 Julian Pimentel (0-2) Mike Trombetta (0-1)
Notes: Wise guy handicappers and fans love to bet the bigger price of an uncoupled entry. Well, he’s “other” local horse. Took some money and had a buzz around him going into the Derby but he didn’t run a step after a pretty clean trip. Maybe it was as simple as him not handling the slop or maybe he’s just not that good. I’m siding with the latter.
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