PGA Wells Fargo

Wells Fargo Championship
Quail Hollow Golf and Country Club – Par 71 – 7,600 yards

The PGA Tour is on their annual trip to Quail Hollow Golf Club this week, as guys are looking to get it going in the right direction again with the PGA Championship now just a couple of weeks away. This course hosted the PGA back in 2017, but it's been an annual stop for years on Tour, and they don't have to trick it up to Major championship levels for it to be tough.

The final three holes tend to get all the attention for being tough and rightfully so, but there are a lot of big numbers out there on Quail Hollow if you aren't striking it pure and keeping it out of trouble, because on sheer length alone, this track is tough. It is a course where good shots will get rewarded though, as the winner does tend to be somewhere in the mid-teens below par, but most of that work better be done before Hole 16, because gaining strokes there is hard to do without the benefit of another's mistake.

Length with every club is always nice, but can be a bit more important here as a general rule. Recent winners here tend to all be guys who can get the ball out there – Jason Day, Rory McIlroy (twice) JB Holmes, Rickie Fowler, Lucas Glover – as longer tee shots translate into shorter clubs in their hands for the approach. With approach shots going to come in from a relatively long distance on average as it is here, those guys who do get it down the fairway and can use short irons more often will be the ones in contention on Sunday.

This place also has a history of being the spot where young, talented guys on Tour get their first PGA Tour win, as both Fowler and McIlroy are a part of that club over the past decade. There is one guy that fits that mold in my selections this week, but all three guys are phenomenal ball strikers and aren't afraid to try and overpower any golf course they come up against.

Odds per - Sportsbetting.ag

Golfers to Watch

Rickie Fowler (+1200) – This isn't exactly the worst field in the world as there are plenty of big names involved, so the +1200 price may not be ideal on Fowler, but he's loved this course ever since he became a pro. His first appearance here back in 2010 ended with a 6th place finish as McIlroy won his first ever PGA Tour event, but it was two years later that Fowler would get his first career title at this very event. Since then, it's been a MC, 38th, 4th, 5th, and 21st place here for Fowler, so it's hard to figure his name won't be one of them floating around the top of the leaderboard on Sunday.

To have a course history like that, Fowler has meet many of the criteria in terms of skill set to perform well at Quail Hollow. Well, it's plenty long off the tee, is an all around great ball-striker, and when the putts are falling that's when it really gets fun. The price could be a little better, but considering of the four guys with odds below +1800, you've got three past champions (McIlroy, Day, Fowler) and Justin Rose, we could easily see one of these guys take control of the tournament from the get-go and never look back. I'm looking for that to potentially be Fowler this week.

Henrik Stenson (+3300) – Stenson's course history here would suggest that this course isn't his most favorite track in the world – four MC's and a 13th and 58th – but it's really hard to figure out why. Stenson's not the longest guy on Tour, but he's really rather accurate off the tee, and if he gets that accuracy dialed in with his driver and not forcing himself to pull 3-wood for accuracy reasons, this course could really fit his game. Paired with his precision approach game that's had plenty of success from long distances, and Stenson and Quail Hollow should be a near perfect fit.

It will be that course history that has Stenson being looked over by many this week, but if he can put it all together for four days, then at least another top 15 should be in the cards. He'll need to avoid scrambling errors to make that happen (another Stenson weakness) but if his approach game is on point - 3rd on Tour in Strokes Gained: Approach this year – it might just take a semi-hot putter for Stenson to get back in the winner's circle.

Luke List (+8000) – List is a guy that's never been in the winner's circle for a PGA Tour event, and he could end up being the guy to add his name to the long list of first time Tour winners at the Wells Fargo. His failure to ever close a tournament down has his odds numbers climbing higher and higher each week, and at +8000, I've got to bite this week.

List has made four starts here since 2013, finishing 16th in 2013, missing the cut in both 2016 and 2017, before finishing 9th here a year ago. But it's his length and ball striking that make him a great candidate here, as his drawback is and likely always will be his putting, and you've just got to hope he sees some drop early. Scoring on the Par 5's won't be hard for List, and thanks to his length, he'll be one of those guys that consistently has shorter clubs in his hand then the majority of the field.

Until List wins one there will always be that cloud of doubt for bettors on whether or not to get behind him, but this course has got to be one of the better fits for his game, and maybe we get a nice size score on him for that first W. Because one List does figure out how to close a tournament out, chances are we will start to see him always in that +6000 and less range.

Wells Fargo Championship - per Sportsbetting.ag
Rory McIlroy 6/1
Jason Day 10/1
Justin Rose 12/1
Rickie Fowler 12/1
Hideki Matsuyama 18/1
Tony Finau 18/1
Webb Simpson 20/1
Sergio Garcia 22/1
Phil Mickelson 25/1
Gary Woodland 28/1
Paul Casey 28/1
Henrik Stenson 33/1
Jason Kokrak 33/1
Patrick Reed 40/1
Aaron Wise 50/1
Byeong Hun An 50/1
Charles Howell 50/1
Lucas Glover 50/1
Sung-Jae Im 50/1
J.B. Holmes 66/1
Jhonattan Vegas 66/1
Keegan Bradley 66/1
Daniel Berger 80/1
Keith Mitchell 80/1
Luke List 80/1
Zach Johnson 80/1
Adam Hadwin 100/1
Chez Reavie 100/1
J.T. Poston 100/1
Jimmy Walker 100/1
Joel Dahmen 100/1
Kevin Streelman 100/1
Kyoung-Hoon Lee 100/1
Michael Thompson 100/1
Rory Sabbatini 100/1
Sam Burns 100/1
Sung-Hoon Kang 100/1
Trey Mullinax 100/1
Danny Lee 125/1
Denny McCarthy 125/1
Dylan Frittelli 125/1
Joaquin Niemann 125/1
Kyle Stanley 125/1
Matt Jones 125/1
Nick Watney 125/1
Beau Hossler 150/1
Bud Cauley 150/1
Chesson Hadley 150/1
Russell Henley 150/1
Scott Stallings 150/1

By Joe Williams

PRIME MATCHUPS

Each week we'll take a look at the best round matchups to try and build up a nice bankroll.

Phil Mickelson (+120) vs. Tony Finau (-150): Finau is a masher, and that's a nice trait at Quail Hollow. However, no one knows this course better than Lefty. While Mickelson has never won at this event, he has played at Quail Hollow on 14 previous occasions dating back to 2005 when it was the Wachovia Championship and he finished seventh in his debut at the event. He has finished 18th or better in 12 of his 14 appearances in Charlotte, and he is fifth or better in seven of his past 12 stops at Quail Hollow, including fifth place last season.

Phil Mickelson (-140) vs. Sergio Garcia (+110): As stated above, there aren't many golfers who have the knowledge of Quail Hollow like FIGJAM. In fact, in this field, only Lucas Glover has as many appearances (14) at this event. He might be getting a little long in the tooth, but his vast knowledge of this course will pay big dividends.

Gary Woodland (-130) vs. Paul Casey (+100): Woodland missed the cut at this event last season, but he has had a measure of success at Quail Hollow in the past. That includes a fourth-place showing in 2015, and he is 24th or better in three of his past four starts at the Charlotte event.

Lucas Glover (-110) vs. Patrick Reed (-120): Glover has made 14 previous appearances at this event, including victories in 2011, and a runner-up finish in 2009. Reed has been up and down, finishing 47th or worse in four of his past five, including two missed cuts. He isn't hitting on all cylinders, making Glover the play here.

Last event (RBC Heritage): 0-3 (-335)
This season: 11-14-2 (-410)

OTHER BETS

Top 20 Finish - Phil Mickelson (+100): Again, Lefty has a vast knowledge of this course, and he has been 18th or better in 12 of his 14 previous appearances at Quail Hollow.

Top 20 Finish - Lucas Glover (+177): Glover has a win and a runner-up at Quail Hollow in the past, but he has four top-20 finishes, so he is anything but a slam dunk, thus the longer odds.

Top 20 Finish - Kyle Stanley (+425): Stanley has six previous appearances at Quail Hollow, including a sixth-place showing in 2013. He was also 13th last season in Charlotte. At this price level he is worth a roll of the dice.