SOCCER Betting News, Match-Ups and Trends For Tuesday 3/5/19

By Toby Maxtone-Smith

UEFA Champions League Round of 16 - First Legs

Tuesday, Mar. 5
Games scheduled for 3:00 p.m. ET

Borussia Dortmund vs. Tottenham Hotspur

One of Tottenham’s only convincing performances in 2019 came at the perfect time as they smashed Borussia Dortmund 3-0 in the first leg of their last 16 tie at Wembley. The Londoners are 1/10 to go through with their opponents at 20/1.

Both teams are in a bit of a rut of form. Tottenham have been dragged into the top four race in the Premier League after losing to Chelsea only narrowly escaping the North London derby against Arsenal with a draw. Their creativity has dried up, and the defence is looking more leaky than usual.

Dortmund, meanwhile, have surrendered their nine point lead at the top of the Bundesliga, which they now only lead on goal difference from Bayern Munich The good news for Spurs is that, realisitcally, they only need one goal to qualify. But they could suffer a scare.

Dortmund are unbeaten at home this year, having won 13 of their 15 games at Signal Iduna Park, and are still as attacking potent as ever, despite their defensive shortcomings. They were very unlucky not to score in the first leg.

At even money Dortmund look good value given that Spurs would happily take a narrow defeat.

Tip: Borussia Dortmund at 1/1
Prediction: Borussia Dortmund 2-1 Tottenham Hotspur

Real Madrid vs. Ajax

The Champions League is all that matters for Real Madrid now following a disastrous domestic season, and Los Blancos’ 2-1 win away in Amsterdam means they are now 1/9 to qualify for the quarter-finals, with Ajax priced at 11/2.

But it may not all be plain sailing in the second leg. Real were extremely lucky to win 2-1 in the first leg, as Ajax combined their usual attacking liveliness with some less familiar defensive nous to deserve at least a draw.

Since that win, Real have played three home matches and lost them all, although two of those matches were against Barcelona.

Ajax have proved that they can be free-scoring against the top teams, not just soft opponents in the Eredivisie. They put four past Bayern Munich in two matches in the group stages and both teams to score is correspondingly short at 4/9.

A better angle may be to back Dusan Tadic to score. He has scored a stunning 26 goals this year and takes Ajax’s penalties. At 5/2 anytime he looks more than decent value.

Tip: Dusan Tadic to score anytime at 5/2
Prediction: Real Madrid 3-2 Ajax

Real Madrid vs Ajax: With a late winner by Ascensio, Real Madrid pulled off a 2-1 win in the reverse fixture. They head home to face a rested Ajax team. Madrid are coming off back to back shutout defeats, to rival Barcelona, and are now out of League Cup as well as the La Liga title race, so Champions League is their last chance for a trophy. In the first match, these teams went back-and-forth and had 32 shots, 15 of which were on target. I expect this to be an up-and-down match again. Ajax have to push for an away goal, and Real are weaker in defense without Ramos, who is on a suspension. On the other hand, even though Madrid have been shutout the last two matches, Ajax are likely to concede. I expect this to be a 2-1 or 3-1 match with chance of 2-2. I am going to spread my exposure in this match.

Bets:

1.5u on BTTS & O2.5 @ -150
1u Real Madrid & O1.5 @ -125
0.5u Real Madrid & BTTS @ +175

Borussia Dortmund vs Tottenham: These two teams are each in a poor run of form currently. Borussia lost on the road to Augsburg and Nurnberg recently, and Tottenham have not won in their last three. They looked considerably worse than Arsenal this weekend and got fortunate to get any result (they can thank Auba for that one, yuck). In the reverse fixture, Tottenham played a great second half after a scoreless first, and got two late goals to win 3-0. Borussia now have a large hill to climb, where they cannot allow any goals and need at least two to make this interesting. With that being said, I like Borussia to come out on full-out attack. This should be a game where Borussia is on the front-foot a majority of it, unless Tottenham bag one early and put it out of reach. However, Tottenham, in their seven Champions League matches, average a first goal scored time of 62 minutes. I believe that Borussia will push early and get a lead within the first half, then it comes down to whether Borussia can get a second before Tottenham get a first. Look for Tottenham to be playing counter-attack football and Borussia to be pushing.

Bets:

1.5u on Borussia 1h ML @ +150
0.5u on Borussia 1h -1 @ +450

Porto vs Roma: This Champions League matchup also saw a 2-1 result in the reverse fixture with Roma getting the best of it. This is an interesting spot for both teams. Roma have been rather porous on the road this year as well as historically in the Champions League. They have allowed 15 goals in their last five away matches. On the flip side, Porto are a team who plays well at home in all competitions. They have a 3-0 record in Champions League home fixtures this time around, averaging 2.67 goals scored per match. My favorite bet in this game is to continue the fade of Roma’s defense and ride the home form of Porto. There is always the worry of what happens in a scenario of Porto scoring and then settling, but I believe they will push until they get at least two. I am going to expose my units via various Porto routes.

Bets:

1.5u Porto Team Total o1.5 @ -120
1u Porto ML @ +105
0.25u Porto win to Nil @ +275
0.25u Correct Score 2-0 @ +900

PSG vs Manchester United: This was one of the best matchups when round of 16 fixtures got picked, but after one game and numerous injuries, it’s not what we expected it to be. PSG went into Old Trafford and captured a 2-0 win without either of Neymar or Cavani. Now they return home with a two-goal advantage and two key away goals. In order for them to not move on to the next round, they are required to allow at least two goals..not something that happens very often at home. On the other side, Man U is without numerous starters including poster boy Paul Pogba. They are dominated in the midfield, and PSG will continue to have the best player on the field with Mbappe. I do not expect this to be as offensive as one would like. In order for anything to be interesting, Man United have to score and I do not see that happening without difficulty. I am expecting a game in which PSG pass around the midfield and maintain possession and continually looking for their opportunities to push up through Mbappe. This game has the fade feel and the small hope it turns out to be an exciting comeback.

Bets:
1u on u3 @ -120

CL Accumulator: Madrid vs Ajax o1.5, Borussia Draw No Bet, Porto vs Roma u4.5, Man United TT U1.5 (+136) 0.5u