Betting news, trends, odds and predictions for from various handicappers and websites for Wednesday 2/27/19
Alex Ferrara
Premier League betting after a weekend full of matches, all teams return to league play in the midweek. This week consists of four matchups Tuesday and the remaining six matches on Wednesday. There is not a top-6 duel this week like we had during the weekend, but there happens to be plenty of value; let’s take a look at my favorite plays of the mid-week clashes.
Tuesday Feb. 26th
Leicester (-105) vs Brighton (+350)
Over 2.5 (+120)
Leicester: After their weekend clash with Crystal Palace, in which the Foxes saw a 4-1 defeat, the manager got the boot. This sometimes can be a rejuvenator for a squad like we have seen with Manchester United this year or it can be a distraction. It is always hard to give a prediction to how this will motivate the team, but it is hard to believe it can be any worse than the recent results have shown. Leicester are coming in with zero wins in their past seven. They showed some quality against Palace, but could not bag one early and dismantled late to make it appear worse than the play showed. Team news is showing that Chillwell should be back in the lineup which is a positive; however, their defense has not been the weakness of this team at home, so he might not solve the scoring issues.
Brighton: The Seagulls weekend clash with Chelsea was postponed due to Chelsea being in the Carabao Cup final. They come in this game with slightly more rest than Leicester but top-scorer Glenn Murray is still a game day call. If they happen to be without Murray then they will be searching hard for someone to score more than they already do. Similarly to Leicester, Brighton have not won in their past six Premier League games and could be without key players.
The Pick: It’s hard for me to not like Leicester this week. They showed signs of life against Palace and even though they didn’t get the win, I expect them to bounce back Tuesday. Both teams, as mentioned before, are in poor form, so I am looking for the home team to get behind the crowd, and the new manager, to squeak out a win. Brighton have allowed 2+ goals in 9/13 away matches, and if that happens here, which is quite possible, then Brighton will have a tough hill to climb to salvage a result. This was exemplified earlier this year in the reverse fixture when Brighton played with a man advantage for 72 minutes and failed to score in that timespan.
Bet: Leicester ML (-105) 2.5u “if” Murray is out for BHA, 1.5u if Murray is in.
Wednesday Feb. 27th
Liverpool (-400) vs Watford (+1200)
Over 3.0 (-115)
Liverpool: A scoreless bout with Manchester United was not what many were expecting leading up to the top-four clash. The team is now scoreless in their last two matches, albeit against two quality teams, and looking to keep up with City down the stretch. The Reds now hold only a one-point lead on top of the standings after dropping points in three of their last four. If Liverpool wants to lift the trophy at years end then they can no longer drop points, especially at home. In thirteen PL matches at home, Liverpool have scored 35 and have only conceded seven while winning 11, drawing two and losing zero. The motivation is still high here.
Watford: The Hornets are starting to distinguish themselves as “the best of the rest.” They have three straight wins in all competitions with an explosive 5-1 win in their weekend match vs woeful Cardiff. However, before that goal explosion, Watford had only scored four in their previous five Premier League games, with two shutouts along the way.
The Pick: Liverpool need a win here. They lost Firmino during the weekend, but his replacement in the starting squad should be Shaqiri, so no major loss there. Their defense remains one of the best in the league with eight clean sheets in their thirteen home matches and a total of 15 clean sheets in all Premier League matches. Watford are not a team you want to necessarily target against, but this is a larger game in the grand scheme of things than expected earlier this year. I expect Virgil Van Djik and the clan to keep a clean sheet and get a much needed win.
Bet: Liverpool win to nil -105 1.5u &
Liverpool vs Watford u3 +105 0.5u
Additional Picks
2/26 Wolverhampton ML (-130) 1u
Note: fading Huddersfield until they show signs of any life.
2/27 Southampton ML (-110) 0.5u
2/27 Southampton o1.5 (-110) 0.5u
Note: Fulham have allowed 2+ in 12/14 away matches. Southampton at home, in need of a win, I’ll take my chances.
2/27 Arsenal TT o1.5 + city/whu o2.5 (-110) 1u
Note: not always a fan of parlays, but I like the combination of these two plays at limited juice, and who doesn’t enjoy action?
2/27 Man U ML (+135) 0.5u
2/27 Man U HT/FT(+275) 0.5u
Note: No goals against Liverpool and multiple injuries; however, I still like the value considering the expected replacement talent and in need of wins to finish top-4.
Admir Aljic
This midweek Premier League clash offers up a London derby that could be critical in Chelsea’s feisty fight for fourth place, and Tottenham’s waning battle for the title. The game between Chelsea and Tottenham will take place at the Stamford Bridge on February 27th, 2019.
Chelsea vs. Tottenham Hotspur
Three-Way: 1: Chelsea +129; X: +250 Draw; 2: Tottenham +225 at BetDSI Sportsbook
Spread -0.5:Chelsea +120; Tottenham -154
Total 2.5 goals: Over -125; Under +100
CHELSEA
Wildly unstable in recent PL rounds (W2, L3), Chelsea’s last four league matches have all been one-sided with either a big win or defeat (just one team scored with at least a two-goal victory margin). They have been fighting on four fronts, and come into this match following just two days of rest since losing the League Cup on penalties.
At home in the league, things have been better (W8, D4, L1), with the Blues conceding just nine goals – 0.69 on average per match. Furthermore, Chelsea is the only PL team yet to trail at half-time in a home match this season.
Chelsea’s loss in the League Cup final could be avoided if Willy Caballero entered the game in place of Kepa Arrizabalaga and Maurizio Sarri wanted to put the experienced goalkeeper in but Kepa refused it, which developed into a verbal fight between the coach and young goalie. Caballero played for Man City before and he knows the players well, so having him between the sticks would be beneficial, especially considering Caballero’s penalty-saving abilities. Instead, the Blues went on to lose the game and Kepa was fined with one-week salary a day later.
It will be interesting to see whether Sarri will give Kepa a chance to shine against Spurs on Wednesday, while he is definitely without Gary Cahill (lower back), Danny Drinkwater (Achilles tendon), and Davide Zappacosta (illness).
Betting Trends:
Eden Hazard is Chelsea’s top PL scorer (12 goals) and netted a brace in their last home league match
Chelsea won 60.87% of the matches where they’ve been favorites this PL season – the lowest tally of the top-six teams
TOTTENHAM HOTSPUR
Tottenham, meanwhile, continued their draw-less league season with a disappointing 2-1 defeat at Burnley last time out. That result caused manager Mauricio Pochettino to state Tottenham can no longer be considered title contenders.
Despite that defeat, Spurs remain the PL’s best away team (W11, L3), and have scored an average of 2.21 goals per road trip (highest in the league), finding the net in all 14 matches. They were in a fine form of four consecutive victories including the massive 3-0 win over Dortmund in the opening leg of the 1/8 finals of the Champions League but a defeat to the Clarets wasn’t expected.
Chris Wood gave Burnley a 1-0 lead in the 57th minute but Harry Kane, who missed the previous seven games due to an ankle injury, equalized eight minutes later, while Ashley Barnes set the final score in the 83rd minute.
Mauricio Pochettino cannot count on Eric Dier who is out with an illness, while Dele Alli is listed as questionable with a thigh injury.
Betting Trends:
Harry Kane marked his return from injury with a goal in the last round for Tottenham and has 15 PL goals to his name so far
Of Tottenham’s 14 PL away games, 71.43% have featured three goals or more
Chelsea won four of the previous ten H2H encounters (D2, L4) but Tottenham won three of the last four, while the Blues were victorious in three of the past four meetings at the Stamford Bridge. The Blues won the latest tilt at this venue when they beat Spurs 3-1 in the second leg of the League Cup semi-finals but Tottenham will be looking for revenge here, so I don’t think Sarri’s team will get three points, especially after the latest tussle with Kepa. Tottenham lost the last three games on the road and I am not backing them to get a win, either, and that’s why I am going with a draw.
MY PICK: Draw (+250)
ADDITIONAL PICK:Eight of the previous ten H2H duels featured over 2.5 goals and five produced over 3.5. I am not impressed with the teams’ respective defenses recently and I am backing them to concede at least three goals, and with the strikers such as Eden Hazard, Harry Kane, and Gonzalo Higuain, among others, that shouldn’t be a problem.
MY PICK: BTTS and Over 2.5 (+110)