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FIFA Soccer: World Cup News & Notes 7/3/18

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(@shazman)
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Betting news, trends, odds and predictions from various handicappers and websites for Tuesday 7/3/18 .

 
Posted : July 2, 2018 8:57 pm
(@shazman)
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Rd 16 - Tuesday's Best Bets
July 2, 2018
By Toby Maxtone-Smith

World Cup: Round of 16 Preview - Day 4

Sweden vs. Switzerland (FOX, 10:00 a.m. ET)

This half of the World Cup draw has opened out spectacularly. One of Croatia, Russia, Sweden, Switzerland, England and Colombia will make the final. Other than Sweden (1958) and England (1966), none have ever played in the World Cup final before.

The stakes are huge for Sweden and Switzerland, who face off in Tuesday’s opening match. Sweden are 40/1 to win the World Cup with Switzerland 33/1, and it is Switzerland who are narrow 17/10 favourites with Sweden 21/10.

The draw looks a very strong runner here at 2/1. These games are now so important for the more minor nations that nerves will take over and managers and players will adopt more defensive systems.

This was particularly evident in the Croatia v Denmark game. There were two goals in the first four minutes before none in the next 116 as the game petered out into a nervy draw. The last 16 started with a crazy 4-3 between France and Argentina but things have become much tighter.

Switzerland deserve their slight favouritism. They have more spark going forward, but it would take a brave man to take on Sweden after they spectacularly rose to the challenge of beating Mexico in their final group game.

Sweden have kept clean sheets in four of their last five, with the exception against Germany. Switzerland, meanwhile, managed to keep Brazil out despite mounting pressure in their opening 1-1 draw. The second 0-0 of the World Cup at 5/1 looks reasonably likely here, but a safer option would simply be to back the draw in a match between two even sides.

Prediction: Sweden 1-1 Switzerland
Top Bet: Draw at 2/1

Colombia vs. England (FOX, 2:00 p.m. ET)

Colombia and England are gripped with World Cup fever as the group stage combined with Sunday’s results opened the draw out to give them a fantastic chance of at least reaching a World Cup final.

England are somehow 11/2 to win the World Cup with Colombia 18/1, and England are reasonably strong favourites to prevail in Moscow at 11/10. Colombia are 31/10 with the draw 9/4. In the “To Qualify” market Colombia are 6/4 with England 1/2.

England have undoubtedly played some fine football at this World Cup, beating Tunisia 2-1 (and deserving more) before despatching Panama 6-1. The 1-0 defeat to Belgium can be largely discounted from your considerations given the weakened XI both sides played.

But for me there simply is not enough evidence to make England such strong favourites.

They deserve favouritism, especially if Colombia’s talisman James Rodriguez is injured or only semi-fit.

But Colombia’s group stage performances deserve a lot of credit. They lost to Japan but had 10 men for all but the first five minutes, before thrashing Poland with an excellent display of attacking football. They were then more workmanlike against Senegal but still got the job done.

Juan Fernando Quintero has been one of the tournament’s breakout stars. He can spot a pass better than any English player. In Falcao and Juan Cuadrado Colombia have two talented players with a point to prove after both failed in their brief stints in the Premier League.

England, of course, have a razor-sharp attack and one of the best forwards in the world in Harry Kane.

But I cannot have them at 11/10. This could be a lot more even than bookmakers expect, and Colombia are the value.

Prediction: Colombia 2-1 England
Top Bet: Colombia at 31/10

 
Posted : July 2, 2018 8:58 pm
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Best ways to bet Colombia vs. England World Cup odds

You won't hear the players admit it, but England didn't seem all that interested in winning its Group G finale against Belgium. A loss would guarantee an easier path to the semifinals, and with Colombia facing the possibility of being without its best player, England might have made out even better than expected.

Harry Kane & Co. look to lead England to the quarterfinals for the first time since 2006 as they take on a Colombian side Tuesday that overcame a slow start to qualify as the Group H leaders.

QUICK-HITTER

Who else but Harry? England superstar Harry Kane leads the tournament with five goals, and while they haven't exactly been laser-guided missiles from 25 yards out, tallies are tallies. Kane has the inside track on tournament goal leader honors, and will look to make an early impact after sitting out the group stage finale.

This match should feature plenty of back-and-forth action, and with Kane one of the best in the world at being in the right place at the right time, he's a terrific option to open the scoring in this one.

PREDICTION: Harry Kane first goal (+300)
FIRST-HALF BET

Both teams have made life miserable for opposing defenses. England poured in a whopping nine goals in its first three games, while its Colombian counterpart converted five times and would have had more were it not for a catastrophic red card in the sixth minute of its tournament-opening 2-1 loss to Japan.

Both offenses will be humming in this one, making the possibility of a multi-goal first half an intriguing proposition. Look for both sides to go into the half with at least one shot past the opposing keeper.

PREDICTION: Both teams to score in first half (+550)
TEAM/PLAYER BET

Whether team leader James Rodriguez plays through his thigh injury or not – and things aren't looking good in the days prior to the match – Colombia will need to rely heavily on superstar Radamel Falcao. The AS Monaco sensation scored twice in qualifying and had one of his team's five goals in group play, making him a legitimate threat to convert Tuesday.

Falcao should see enough scoring opportunities to make good at least once. And if England is leading late, you can be sure that Colombia will look to get El Tigre as involved as possible.

PREDICTION: Radamel Falcao anytime goal (+240)
FULL-GAME SIDE

The absence of Rodriguez would be a crippling blow to the Colombians but despite them entering the game as a +300 underdog even without an update on his status, England would be wise not to sleep on a team that came within an ill-timed red card of putting together an unbeaten run through the group stage.

Look for this one to be a tightly-contested affair throughout and don't be surprised if these teams need more than 90-plus minutes to decide who will play in the quarterfinals.

PREDICTION: Game decided in extra time (+550)
FULL-GAME TOTAL

This match features plenty of star power on both sides – far too much, in fact, to not expect at least one goal from both teams. And while bettors can get away with taking the Under in this situation during the group stage, it's folly to follow suit in the elimination round, where teams get an extra half-hour to score the winning goal.

Colombia and England are two of the more offensively gifted teams remaining in the World Cup and this game could very well be the highest-scoring match of the Round of 16.

PREDICTION: Over 2.5 (+160)

 
Posted : July 2, 2018 9:00 pm
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