Betting news, trends, odds and predictions from various handicappers and websites for Thursday 6/28/18
Matchday 15 - Best Bets
June 27, 2018
By Toby Maxtone-Smith
World Cup: Matchday 15 Betting Preview
Thursday, June 28
Japan vs. Poland (FS1, 10:00 a.m. ET)
Poland have been extremely underwhelming at this World Cup, losing 2-1 to Senegal before being thoroughly taken apart by Colombia. They were the only European team to be eliminated after just two matches.
Something is clearly not right. They have changed formations constantly. Star player Robert Lewandowski has been hopelessly out of sorts while the defence has looked slow and disorganised.
However key centre-back Kamil Glik returns for this game, and even though opponents Japan have everything to play for - a win guarantees them top spot while a draw would probably be enough to see them through - it might be worth trusting Poland one last time.
They are 2/1 to win the match. Before the tournament started they were roughly evens. How much can really change in two games?
Are Japan suddenly a better team than Poland? They were lucky to beat Colombia who had ten men for all but the first three minutes of the match. They then drew 2-2 with Senegal in a fairly even game, but Japan have lost their last four matches against European opponents.
Poland, despite everything, can come away with a win here.
Prediction: Japan 1-2 Poland
Top Bet: Poland at 2/1
Senegal vs. Colombia (FOX, 10:00 a.m. ET)
There is absolutely everything to play for when Senegal meet Colombia. This is one of the most important - and possibly exciting - match of the group stages.
If Colombia win they qualify. If they draw, they would need Poland to beat Japan to go through. A draw would see Senegal qualify, while a loss would require Poland to beat Japan by a larger margin than Senegal’s defeat.
Colombia’s 3-0 win over Poland was one of the best performanes of the World Cup so far. With James Rodriguez and the wonderful Juan Fernando Quintero pulling the strings behind a born-again Falcao, they tore through their opponents with some fantastic football.
They seem to have hit form at the right time, and they could be too good for Senegal, who are unfortunate to meet them on matchday three. They are probably the best African team at this World Cup, yet they may just end up going home here.
Colombia are 17/20 favourites, and that is good enough for me. They will be a side to avoid in the knockout rounds.
Prediction: Senegal 0-2 Colombia
Top Bet: Colombia at 17/20
Group G Table & Results
England vs. Belgium (FOX, 2:00 p.m. ET)
This promises to be one of the strangest games at the World Cup. So much depends on what has happened in Group G, and to a lesser extent Groups E and F.
It could well be that finishing second leads to a much easier path. The likely two to qualify from Group H are Japan and Colombia - and Japan would be by some way the weakest team in the knockout rounds. Furthermore, second place could lead to a potential quarter-final against Mexico or Switzerland.
Both teams will make changes. Roberto Martinez has hinted that he may change almost his entire team, while Gareth Southgate could make up to six.
It would take a brave person to bet on this match before Group H has been decided. But if it is the case that finishing second leads to an earlier path, it is Belgium who would be more likely to take the pragmatic approach than England.
England are riding a wave of national optimism, and Gareth Southgate is not experienced enough to take the risk of chucking the game. The English spirit of fair play is still very strong. England will probably be the best bet - but only once the situation beccomes clear.
Prediction: England 2-0 Belgium
Top Bet: England at 17/10
Panama vs. Tunisia (FS1, 2:00 p.m. ET)
This is the World Cup for the hardcore. Two of the least fancied sides play off in a dead rubber.
But given that this is Panama’s first ever World CUp and Tunisia’s first appearance since 2006, this is far from an unimportant match for both sides. They will be desperate to come away from the World Cup with at least a point and preferably a win, so optimism that these two relatively defensive sides could open up looks well-founded.
Tunisia had 16 shots against Belgium after barely threatening England’s goal in the first game. Panama deservedly hit the net against England and also had a few chances on the break against Belgium. Defensively they have been dreadful, conceding nine goals.
Tunisia have been priced up as 17/20 favourites, but this seems much too short. The price came crashing in during the first half of England vs. Panama, but it should not be forgotten that Tunisia conceded five to Belgium and were very lucky only to lose in the last minute to England.
This World Cup is becomingly steadily more attacking, and this match may well continue that trend.
Prediction: Panama 2-2 Tunisia
Top Bet: Over 2.5 goals at 8/11
World Cup bettors fire on Colombia; Japan now favored vs. Poland
By: Patrick Everson
Group H
Colombia vs. Senegal
After losing as a solid favorite against Japan in its World Cup opener, Colombia bounced back with a 3-0 rout of Poland as a +110 favorite Sunday. That gave the Colombians a critical 3 points, though they’ll need another good result Thursday, as they still trail Senegal and Japan, each with 4 points.
Senegal chalked up points in both its games, opening with a 2-1 victory over Poland as a modest +225 underdog, then drawing 2-2 against Japan as a slight favorite of +170 Sunday. The Senegal side is in good position, but needs a win or draw in this 10 a.m. ET clash to be assured of advancing.
“After their impressive win over Poland, everyone seems to be jumping on the Colombia bandwagon,” Crossman said. “Colombia opened as a -105 favorite, but they have since shot up to -120 on the three-way line. The amount of action has moved Senegal from +300 to +345 on the three-way line, and the draw has gone from +235 to +255.”
Poland vs. Japan
Japan is tied with Senegal atop the group and looking for a spot in the round of 16. The Japanese squad upset Colombia 2-1 in the opener as a +400 pup, then got a 2-2 draw with Senegal as a small ‘dog of +220 Sunday. Keisuke Honda’s 78th-minute score was the equalizer that got Japan a key point against Senegal.
Poland is completely on the outside looking in, with no chance to make the knockout stage after losing its first two matches. Following a 2-1 loss to Senegal, the Polish unit got blasted by Colombia 3-0 as a +250 underdog.
“We have seen a lot of action come in on Japan since opening,” Crossman said of wagering for this 10 a.m. ET contest. “Originally, Poland was a -110 favorite on the three-way line, but 63 percent of the action has come in on Samurai Blue. Now, the shortest odds are on Japan at +160. Poland has moved all the way to +190, while the draw is at +215.”
Group G
Belgium vs. England
This would be an outstanding matchup if a spot in the knockout stage was at stake. But both England and Belgium sit at 2-0 and with 6 points, safely into the next round and with only seeding to play for in the 2 p.m. ET start.
Three Lions escaped their opener against Tunisia with a stoppage-time goal for a 2-1 victory, then blasted Panama with five first-half goals on the way to a 6-1 rout as a healthy +450 chalk Sunday. Belgium rolled Panama 3-0, then hung a five-spot on Tunisia in a 5-2 win as a -300 fave Saturday.
“Typically, we see a lot of action from English punters in any game involving England. However, the circumstances surrounding this match mean that both sides might rather lose than get the victory, as it might mean a much easier draw,” Crossman said, alluding to possible round of 16 matchups. “As such, we haven't seen much action here. We opened with England at +175, and have the Three Lions at +165 now, with the prices on the draw and Belgium relatively the same price.”
By Wednesday evening, England tightened a bit to +160, with Belgium a slight ‘dog of +180 and the draw +200.
Tunisia vs. Panama
With the top of the group already settled, Tunisia and Panama are playing out the string, having lost both their matches thus far. After giving England a stern test in its opener, Tunisia couldn’t keep pace with Belgium, allowing three first-half goals in a 5-2 loss as a huge +1100 ‘dog Saturday.
Panama didn’t get its first goal of the tournament until it was far too late. The Central American side lost 3-0 to Belgium, then got boatraced by England 6-1, yielding all six goals before connecting in the 78th minute as a +1800 pup Sunday.
“At BetDSI, we are big fans of Panama in this match,” Crossman said of another 2 p.m. ET meeting. “Although this game doesn't mean anything in the grand scheme of things, with both sides eliminated, our sharps have been heavy-handed with their action on the North African country. Tunisia was originally a +130 favorite on the three-way line and are up to -120 at the moment. So far, 65 percent of the handle is on Tunisia in this match.”
Panama is a +320 underdog, with the draw at +250.