Betting news, trends, odds and predictions from various handicappers and websites for Saturday 6/23/18
Matchday 10 - Best Bets
June 22, 2018
By Toby Maxtone-Smith
World Cup: Matchday 10 Betting Preview
Saturday, June 23
Group G Table & Results
Belgium vs. Tunisia (FOX, 8:00 a.m. ET)
Belgium easily swept aside Panama in its first game, winning 3-0, but the victory was down to moments of of magic from Belgium’s star-studded team rather than thanks to a cohesive team performance.
Thibaut Courtois was barely tested in goal and again their match against Tunisia could be another case of Belgium going through the gears with their class telling in the end.
Tunisia eventually succumbed to a last minute goal by Harry Kane to lose 2-1 to England, but they conceded a hatful of chances in the first half and did not threaten the English goal apart from the penalty they scored.
This is going to be another game of attack vs defence. Tunisia are unambitious, and know that their best hope of qualifying comes from edging a draw here, beating Panama and hoping other results go their way.
Romelu Lukaku looks a good shout to add to his goals tally, but is predictably short to open the scoring at 5/2.
It is becoming a familiar prediction, but Belgium to win to nil at even money looks the best bet here.
Prediction: Belgium 2-0 Tunisia
Top Bet: Belgium to win to nil at 1/1
Group F Table & Results
South Korea vs. Mexico (FOX, 11:00 a.m. ET)
Mexico were fantastic in their opening match against Germany, playing a wonderfully fearless style and constantly opening up the four-time world champions in a deserved 1-0 win.
The fixture list plays out perfectly for Juan Carlos Osorio’s men with the group’s whipping boys, South Korea, next up.
South Korea only lost 1-0 to Sweden thanks to a second half penalty, but they were second best throughout and failed to muster a single shot on target. The defence, which had been leaky in Asian qualifying, held up better than expected, but they will face a more varied attack in Mexico here.
Mexico have won five of their last eight matches with each of these wins being to nil, and it would not be a surprise to see another such scoreline. Despite their attacking talent, finishing remains a problem and they rarely thrash teams.
Anything but a win here would all but end South Korea’s chances of qualification. Mexico should have too much for Shin Tae-yong’s Taeguk Warriors.
Prediction: South Korea 0-1 Mexico
Top Bet: Mexico to win to nil at 7/5
Germany vs. Sweden (FOX, 2:00 p.m. ET)
One of the most fascinating and crucial games of the second round sees holders Germany facing a battle to stay in the competition as they face Sweden, who opened their World Cup by beating South Korea.
While Mexico’s win over Germany was unexpected given Germany’s record in World Cup groups, it did follow a pattern for the reigning champions with 10 of their last 12 World Cup or European Championship matches now featuring fewer than three goals. The 7-1 against Brazil still skews perceptions of Joachim Löw’s men. They were not brilliant in the last World Cup, and their flaws were out on display against Mexico.
Germany held a crisis meeting after that defeat. Former stars have been slamming them in the press, with Löw favourite Mesut Özil coming in for particularly stinging criticism. The Germans, usually so calm and confident, are rattled.
And the fixtures have played out badly for them. A match against South Korea after an opening day defeat would have been the perfect opportunity to get into their stride, but organised Sweden are very awkward opponents. They ran France close in the group before dumping Italy out in the play-off.
It sounds incredible, but Germany’s World Cup dreams could be hanging by a thread at full-time.
Prediction: Germany 1-1 Sweden
Top Bet: Draw at 17/5
Pros vs. Joes fuels Saturday World Cup betting, with public on Mexico, Germany
By: Patrick Everson
Public bettors seem certain Mexico’s magic will continue Saturday in World Cup play, but the wiseguys appear to disagree. Covers checks in on the action and line movement for all three games, with insights from Will Bernanke, lead analyst for CG Analytics in Las Vegas, and Mirio Mella, spokesman for Bitcoin-based Cloudbet.com.
Group G
Belgium vs. Tunisia
Belgium can take a big step toward the knockout stage if it can pick up where it left off in its World Cup opener. After a scoreless first half against Panama, the Belgians knocked in three second-half goals, including Dries Mertens’ opener in the 47th minute of a 3-0 victory as a -550 favorite Monday.
In the match that followed, Tunisia gave England all it could handle but fell just short 2-1. The Tunisians rebounded from an early Harry Kane goal to tie it at 1 on a Ferjani Sassi penalty kick in the 35th minute, then lost the game in heartbreaking fashion when Kane scored in second-half stoppage time.
Those outcomes have influenced betting on both sides in Saturday’s 8 a.m. ET start. Belgium opened -380 in the three-way betting at CG books, with Tunisia a huge -1100 chalk and the draw +460; those numbers have moved to -320/+900/+400.
“Seventy-four percent of account money on Tunisia, while 96 percent of over-the-counter money is on Belgium. A definite Pros vs. Joes shaping up,” Bernanke said. “Public bettors are flocking to Belgium, as they are seen by many as a potential World Cup winner. Sharp bettors like what they saw in Tunisia in their opening game, as they were minutes away from a draw vs. England. Tunisia is considered a dark horse to get out of the group.”
Cloudbet.com opened Belgium at -357 and tightened to -256, while big ‘dog Tunisia moved from +1440 to +890, with the draw going from +458 to +396.
“In what appears to be a weaker-than-expected Group G, Tunisia are the 32nd-ranked team in expected goals after a first-half schooling by England, who failed to capitalize before finding a winner in injury time,” Mella said. “Meanwhile, as teams like Australia, Iceland and Mexico are greater than the sum of their parts, Belgium are the opposite, which is the result of appointing a coach deemed unemployable by English Premier League also-rans Everton. Despite boasting a world-class forward line of Eden Hazard, Dries Mertens and Romelu Lukaku, squad depth is poor beyond the impressive first 11, on paper at least.
“After opening at -357 with Cloudbet, Belgium have drifted, with the perceived value on Tunisia now.”
Group F
South Korea vs. Mexico
Mexico notched a big upset in its World Cup opener Sunday with a 1-0 victory over Germany, one of the pre-tournament favorites. Hirving Lozano struck in the 35th minute, and the +542 underdog made it stand up the rest of the way.
South Korea missed out on a draw against Sweden on Monday, thanks to a video review of the game’s lone goal. Sweden converted a 65th-minute penalty kick that review confirmed, and South Korea couldn’t get the equalizer.
The second game for these two teams is proving quite popular at CG books, including at The Cosmopolitan and Venetian on the Vegas Strip. Mexico opened -200 and dipped to -150, while South Korea went from +620 to +475 and the draw from +315 to +250.
“Another Pros vs. Joes, as 89 percent of account money is on South Korea, while 87 percent of over-the-counter money is on Mexico,” Bernanke said of the 11 a.m. ET matchup. “Public bettors were certainly impressed and even shocked by Mexico’s upset of Germany in the first game of the group stage. This was the biggest upset thus far.
“Sharp bettors are seeing a possible letdown and maybe even an overreaction in the market, as in just one game, Mexico has gone from a +600 underdog to a -150 favorite. The line move has reflected some respected money coming in, but we anticipate Mexico money to just keep pouring in right up until start time.”
In addition, CG has seen the total come down, from 2.5 (Under -140) to 2 (Over -115).
Mexico opened significantly lower at Cloudbet, at -129, but was bet up to -147 at its peak. South Korea opened at +431 and moved to +500, and the draw went from +263 to +268.
“Mexico’s impressive and deserved victory over Germany means they go into this fixture full of confidence, and Cloudbet customers have pushed their price in for victory,” Mella said. “The interesting market in this game is the Total (2). Sweden and Korea are low-scoring teams, so 1-0 was not an unexpected scoreline, while all the sharp money for Germany vs. Mexico pre-kickoff was for Over 2.5, 2.75 and 3.0 goals.
“Once that game started, even more shrewd money piled into the Over, resulting in a mid-game line equivalent of 3.5, as an incredibly open game produced numerous opportunities. Mexico wasted most dangerous attacks, as the clever money stayed in the bookie's satchel. In this game, will Mexico’s attacking instincts overcome Korea’s defensive outlook? The under might be the smart play.”
Germany vs. Sweden
Germany looks to rebound from a shocking loss in its World Cup opener, now needing a victory to get on track for the knockout stage. The German side couldn’t generate a single goal against Mexico, losing 1-0 as a -211 fave Sunday.
Meanwhile, Sweden picked up a key 3 points with its 1-0 victory South Korea on Monday. The Swedes got a 65th-minute score from Andreas Granqviston on a penalty kick that was reviewed and ultimately upheld.
Germany’s price has tightened a bit at CG books for this 2 p.m. ET kickoff, from -275 to -240, with Sweden going from +850 to +650 and the draw from +375 to +345.
“Once again, a Pros vs. Joes scenario, as 91 percent of account money is coming in on Sweden, while 94 percent of over-the-counter money is on the defending champs Germany,” Bernanke said. “Public bettors are having no problem backing Germany, believing the Germans will bounce back in a must-win situation. Sharp bettors are thinking otherwise, seeing value in an underrated Sweden team that knocked out perennial world power Italy in the UEFA two-leg playoff just to get to the World Cup.
“Sweden is battle-tested. Could Germany be overrated this time around? Certainly, Germany’s odds have a built-in tax because of their world dominance of late. It should be one heck of a game.”
At Cloudbet.com, Germany opened -204 and moved ever so slightly to -200, while the Swede side went from +700 to +631 and the draw from +335 to +340.
“It’s crunch time for the Deutschland, with several selection dilemmas facing coach Joachim Low,” Mella said. “As it seemed to every man and his dog, Low’s starting 11 in the loss to Mexico was devoid of any pace in the attacking third, so Mesut Ozil may be sacrificed for Marco Reus. Dynamic but out-of-form striker Tino Werner limped off and may be replaced by false-nine Thomas Mueller or lumbering but direct Mario Gomez. Changes need to be made at fullback, where the Mexicans dominated on the flanks.
“The Swedes will, as ever, be obstinate opponents, predictably tough to break down, and could easily come away with a low-scoring draw.”