Betting news, trends, odds and predictions from various handicappers and websites for Sunday 6/17/18
Matchday 4 - Best Bets
June 16, 2018
By Toby Maxtone-Smith
World Cup: Matchday 4 Betting Preview
Group E & F Best Bets
Sunday, June 17
Costa Rica vs. Serbia (FOX, 8:00 a.m. ET)
Group D is a section with one obvious favourite to win it in Brazil, one fairly long outsider in Costa Rica, and two European teams who look very hard to split in Serbia and Switzerland.
Serbia were very impressive in qualifying, bullying their reasonably strong group opponents. But as so often happens with them, their pre-tournament preparations have been disruptive, with a change of coach and an overhaul of their style, switching from three at the back to four at the back in order to fit in the supremely gifted Sergej Milinkovic-Savic.
At previous tournaments Serbia just have not got going. But they have the perfect opening game against the group’s weakest team. Should they see off Costa Rica, they may forget any rumbling discontent in the squad and seize their chance.
Costa Rica are unlikely to repeat their exploits of 2014. The squad remains similar, but simply older - and expectations are higher. Their wing-backs, so crucial to their success in Brazil, have also declined.
Serbia look good value here at 19/20 to steal a march on their likely group rivals in Switzerland.
Prediction: Serbia 2-0 Costa Rica
Top Bet: Serbia to win at 19/20
Brazil vs. Switzerland (FS1, 2:00 p.m. ET)
World Cup favourites Brazil open their tournament with a match against an often underrated Switzerland side who had a very good record in qualifying.
There are a few reasons to believe this might be tricky for Brazil. If Switzerland adopt a similar high-pressing system to Croatia’s approach in the recent friendly at Anfield, the Seleção may find that they struggle to get the ball to their ultra-talented front men.
However they should come through this. Switzerland lack a natural goalscorer, and if Brazil take an early lead - and they will start right on the front foot - then it is easy to see them being picked off just as they were during their first game of the last World Cup, a 5-1 loss to France.
Brazil’s attack steals the headlines, but Tite’s men conceded just 11 in 18 South American qualifiers. At centre-back is the PSG pairing of Thiago Silva and Marquinhos, while Daniel Alves’s injury may actually help their balance as a steady right-back comes in to complement Marcelo on the left.
Prediction: Brazil 3-0 Switzerland
Top Bet: Brazil to win to nil at 6/5
Germany vs. Mexico (FS1, 11:00 a.m. ET)
You can never write off the Germans, but it may pay to be sceptical of Joachim Löw’s men in what looks like a difficult opening World Cup match against Mexico.
Mexico’s last five tournaments have all panned out the same way: they qualify from the group and then fail to get any further. But Juan Carlos Osorio’s side have only lost two of their last 15 World Cup group games.
There are a few reasons to be nervous about Germany. Results in friendly matches are usually quite irrelevant, but a defeat to Austria and a narrow win over Saudi Arabia may show that Germany do not come into this tournament in the best of form.
They are still likely to last the course as they always do, and with Sweden and South Korea coming up in the group they will still back themselves to top it. The game promises a lot of goals. Mexico’s strongest point is their strike partnership of Javier Hernandez and Carlos Vela, while Germany always score bundles in the group.
This could be closer than the odds suggest.
Prediction: Germany 2-2 Mexico
Top Bet: Mexico +1 at 21/20
Brazil vs. Switzerland
By Kyle Markus
Brazil has been anxiously waiting for another World Cup after getting demolished in the semifinals four years ago by Germany. They are now back and ready to knock off anyone in their path. Switzerland is the first team that will try to upset Brazil but it’s going to be a monumental task.
Brazil has a star-studded lineup and is playing well as a collective. Switzerland is a worthy foe and a good strategy could keep this match close, but it is going to be tough to spring the upset. The Swiss would probably be content with a draw in this one but Brazil is favored to come away with the victory in World Cup betting lines.
The Brazil-Switzerland World Cup matchup will be held at Rostov Arena in Rostov-on-Don, Russia. The match will take place on Sunday at 2 p.m. ET.
We'll have World Cup odds at BookMaker.eu available for every game of the 2018 soccer tournament.
Odds Analysis
Brazil’s odds on the moneyline are listed at -232 to win this match. The odds of a tie are listed at +369 while Switzerland coming away with a victory is listed as the +675 underdog to pull off the upset.
The under/over total of goals is 2.5, with the “over” the slight favorite. The odds for Brazil winning 2-0 is listed at +458, and a 3-0 outcome is listed at +708 as it will be tough for Brazil to win that easily against a competent Switzerland team.
Brazil is getting 79 percent of the action to win this contest by more than one goal.
Injury Report
Brazil star Neymar did not play in the blowout back in 2014 because of an injury but is healthy and looking like one of the best players in the world. He is listed at better than even odds to score against Switzerland as they have no match for his incredible talent.
While Neymar is the headliner, he is joined by fellow star Gabriel Jesus, another elite scorer Switzerland must look to bottle up. It is a tough situation and Switzerland hopes to dominate time of possession as much as possible to limit Brazil’s scoring chances.
The longer this one stays tied the more of a chance Switzerland has at pulling out a draw. If Brazil can get on the board early it may change the way the Swiss have to play, and a more aggressive style means more weakness on the back end, which could lead to a blowout. Keep an eye on Neymar because he could very well be the one that blows this game open.
Key Stat
+900. Those are the odds given to Neymar to lead every player in the World Cup in scoring, which are the best odds of any player, barely ahead of Lionel Messi. The idea certainly makes sense, as Neymar is a talented scorer who is playing for a team that figures to make it deep into the tournament.
This is a good match to get a goal as Switzerland has a sound defense but is not as talented as the Brazilian squad. Neymar will get his chances and it seems more likely he converts in this opening round matchup.
Free World Cup Soccer ATS Picks
The moneyline on Brazil seems much too low, as it would be a pretty big upset for this one to even end in a draw. It’s not that Switzerland is a poor team, but Brazil is ultra-talented and motivated. Switzerland will hope to steal a goal on a counter-attack, but the more likely scenario is seeing Brazil score a couple of times to cruise to the victory in World Cup wagering.
World Cup Soccer ATS Pick: Brazil 2, Switzerland 0