Horses: Belmont Stakes

Belmont Stakes Breakdown
June 7, 2018
By Anthony Stabile

The third leg of the "Triple Crown" is set and the field is ready for the 150th running of the Belmont Stakes!

2018 Breakdown
PP - Horse ML Odds Jockey (Belmont Record) Trainer (Belmont Record)

1 - Justify 4/5 Mike Smith (2-19) Bob Baffert (2-10)
Notes: His toughest rival in the Kentucky Derby and Preakness, Good Magic, is sitting this one out. He looks like the controlling speed in a race that lacks serious pace. His trainer, along with American Pharoah, ended the 37-year Triple Crown drought just three years ago. All things to like/love about him. But this will be his sixth start in just 111 days and that’s his entire career. He’s being asked to do something no horse has ever been asked to do. It seems like Baffert wanted a target for Justify to run at but from the rail draw he’ll likely have to do all of the heavy lifting on the front end. I think he took a step backwards from the Derby to the Preakness because it’s all getting to be a bit too much for him. When he hits the quarter-pole on Saturday, he’ll have little foundation to fall back on. He’ll have just 16 weeks of racing experience. If he manages to pull this off, he’s an all-time great. I just can’t see it happening, especially after the draw.

2 – Free Drop Billy 30/1 Robby Albarado (0-6) Dale Romans (0-9)
Notes: After the draw for posts for The Belmont at Citi Field Tuesday night, media and horsemen/women were invited to stick around to watch some of the Mets/Orioles game. Out in left field, trainer Dale Romans performed the Heimlich maneuver on a woman choking on a hot dog and quite possibly saved her life. Maybe THAT is the reason this horse is running in here because Romans would have been nowhere near Flushing this week without this horse in the field. I hope the karma police give him a piece of this but I think they have their work cut out for them, though his daddy Union Rags did win this in 2012. I’m passing.

3 - Bravazo 8/1 Luis Saez (0-2) D. Wayne Lukas (4-24)
Notes: He came awfully close to handing Justify his first defeat when he ran at him late to miss by just a half-length in the Preakness after running spottily the final half-mile. I wonder what would have happened had this guy gotten a better hold of that surface. If you read my Preakness analysis, I told you I thought Lukas was getting him ready for this by running him there. Maybe I was a race off. I wonder if he fired his best shot last out. If he did, he’s in trouble. If he didn’t and he runs to his pedigree and is allowed to relax and make his one run he can get a minor award in here though I think winning is a bit of a stretch.

4 - Hofburg 9/2 Irad Ortiz, Jr. (1-4) Bill Mott (1-6)
Notes: I’ve been around this sport my entire life and have seen it change tremendously over the past few decades. There are a number of handicapping tools and far more information at the disposal of the bettors and fans that weren’t around 30 years ago. As the oldest 41-year-old out there, the one thing that hasn’t changed and the one thing I will ALWAYS rely on first, is the eye test. And this horse passes the eye test. He looks and moves like a racehorse should. And while I’m not going to compare what he’s done to what Justify has, he’s been pretty impressive himself. Horses don’t win from post 11 around two turns at Gulfstream in their second career try and first in six months like he did. They don’t make up a dozen lengths in a half-mile in the Florida Derby like he did. And they don’t keep coming after getting stopped and bumped and shut off a handful of times in a sea of slop at Churchill like he did in the Derby. Go watch the replay and try to find the NBC version. Take a look at all of the times he could have called it a day but instead kept on coming. Then watch him gallop out past the winner like he is standing still. The fact that Mott has run him in his last two speaks volumes. His sire, Tapit, has sired three of the last four winners of the Test of the Champion. I haven’t liked a horse this much since Tonalist in 2014. I think I like this horse even more.

5 – Restoring Hope 30/1 Florent Geroux (2-6) Bob Baffert (2-10)
Notes: Like Hofburg, he’s eligible for an entry level allowance contest but Baffert has been high on his ability for a while. He didn’t seem to like the sloppy track at Churchill on Derby Day when he was abysmal in the Pat Day Mile but has run well in his other four starts. I’m fairly certain the original plan was for him to be the unofficial rabbit, and maybe it still is, but it’ll be harder to pull off now because of the draw. He’s never really done anything for me. Will likely be a part of the early doings, in some capacity, but I don’t see him anywhere near the action in the stretch.

6 – Gronkowski 12/1 Jose Ortiz (1-3) Chad Brown (0-2)
Notes: I’m so happy he’s in here to take some casual, dead money from every New England Patriots fan that loves the human “Gronk” who actually owns a piece of this horse now. He won a spot in the Derby starting gate but passed on the opportunity and was transferred to his new trainer. He’s undefeated since adding blinkers and switching from turf to synthetic tracks but he’s never run on dirt, never run past a mile and is making his stateside debut in his first start in two months. The Belmont Stakes seems like the wrong place to try all of these things for the first time, doesn’t it? I’m against him but I do think Tom Brady is the GOAT.

7 - Tenfold 12/1 Ricardo Santana, Jr. (Debut) Steve Asmussen (1-5)
Notes: He gave those who thought he was the live longshot in the Preakness (hand raised) a thrill when it looked like he was going to upset the applecart for a brief moment and put in an amazing performance in just his fourth start. The reason I liked him in the Preakness was because he has a fantastic pedigree for an off track and it rained in Baltimore for a week. He was the one who moved up the most on that sloppy mess. He should handle the distance and could grab a minor award but I was far more bullish on him last time around. He certainly moves up if the track comes up wet.

8 – Vino Rosso 8/1 John Velazquez (2-21) Todd Pletcher (3-24)
Notes: It was reported that Pletcher had to flush his eyes for hours, even into Sunday morning, from all of the slop he encountered in the Derby, yet he still kept moving forward even if it was slight movement. The flashier moves in the stretch by Hofburg and My Boy Jack seem to have overshadowed his sneaky-good effort. Johnny V has told me a couple of times that he’ll run all day long and Pletcher has seen his most success in the Triple Crown at Belmont Park. His biggest knock is that he might be pace dependent and if no one chases Justify he could be up against it. Lots to like about him and he could be the one that offers the value on the tote board.

9 – Noble Indy 30/1 Javier Castellano (0-11) Todd Pletcher (3-24)
Notes: The blinkers come off, Castellano goes on and you can throw out his Derby. Initially I felt like he was in here to provide some pace for Justify as well but now he may actually be in the most advantageous spot of the three who should lead the field down the backstretch. Another whose pedigree I like for the 12 panels, I’m getting a 2014 Belmont Stakes runner-up Commissioner vibe off of him. He may fall a part like a cheap suit on the turn but it’s not like you’re going to find out at 3-1; you’ll find out at 30-1. He’s my live longshot in here.

10– Blended Citizen 15/1 Kyle Frey (Debut) Doug O’Neill (Debut)
Notes: He’ll look to follow in the hoofprints of 2014 Belmont Stakes winner Tonalist by using a win in the Peter Pan to upset a Triple Crown bid here. He’s won two of his three starts since getting blinkers but really had no excuse when he took on the big boys in the Blue Grass two back despite what the trip-note in his PPs say. He does make up ground at the end of all of his races and has been stabled at Belmont for over a month so he is familiar with his surroundings. I’ve always questioned his class, and still do. A bit of a puzzler but ultimately, I’m against him.

Belmont Stakes betting odds horse-by-horse preview and picks
Jun 6, 2018 |
By: Monique Vág

Belmont Stakes betting odds horse-by-horse preview and picks
Justify will be running his third race in five weeks and only Bravazo has joined him on every single Triple Crown leg thus far. He's the 4-5 favorite to win the Belmont Stakes.

It all started in the Kentucky Derby when Justify broke one of the “longest curses in the sports” – the Curse of Apollo – winning the Derby without racing as a two year old shattering a record which dated back to 1882.

This Saturday Justify hopes to find his way into the history books to join twelve others as a Triple Crown winner while being only the second undefeated horse to capture the final jewel in the 150th running of the Belmont Stakes.

Here is a horse-by-horse breakdown for this Saturday’s Belmont Stakes with betting odds, according to Xpressbet. The race will start with a post time of 6:37 p.m. ET from Belmont Park in Elmont, New York.

No. 1 Justify (Jockey – Mike Smith, 4-5): He will be running his third race in five weeks and only Bravazo has joined him on every single Triple Crown leg thus far. While the competition was fairly weak in the Preakness there are a lot of positives to take out of his stretch run. This is the first time he was really tested and looked like he could be passed and done at the top of the stretch. The grit and perseverance to fight back and battle while being contested is a special characteristic and one which could work to his advantage especially if pushed early. He certainly looms as the most impressive in the field and the one to beat.

No. 2 Free Drop Billy (Robby Albarado, 30-1): The Derby was too big an ask for this longshot as he broke exceptionally slow and was never a factor finishing forty one lengths back of Justify. The weather may have played a factor, but a lot of it could be due to him being overmatched and outclassed. It’s been a year since we’ve seen Free Drop Billy in the winner's circle and with only two career wins to his name and both of those coming at 2, he’s a longshot for a reason and doesn’t look likely to hit the board.

No. 3 Bravazo (Luis Saez, 8-1): He was positioned really well and took advantage of the stretch duel between Good Magic and Justify to finish a very respectable second. While his effort in the Preakness was solid, his start in the Derby was not quite as impressive. The stretch run in the Derby was compromised by bumps and traffic trouble, so it’s hard to say if he would have been able to make up more ground there and improve on his finishing with a cleaner trip. His best races have been run close to the pace and if positioned well once again, he may be able to flaunt that impressive closing kick.

No. 4 Hofburg (Irad Ortiz Jr., 9-2): He received a lot of hype entering the Kentucky Derby with only one win – against maiden company – and once again he finds himself as the buzz horse after opting to skip out on the Preakness stakes and freshen up. He should appreciate the added furlongs today as it works well with his closing style and the smaller field (relative to the Derby), should be helpful in rallying late with a lot less horses to navigate between in the stretch. He has the aspect of being lightly raced working to his advantage and a sire in Tapit who sired last year’s Belmont Stakes winner for the third time in four years.

No. 5 Restoring Hope (Florent Geroux, 30-1): His only win has come against maiden company and he will be taking a huge jump up in class facing off against Grade 1 horses for the first time. Hopefully for his sake he runs better than he did on the Derby undercard in the Pat Day Mile and can improve on his twelfth place finish. Perhaps it was the off track, or six wide stretch bid that did him in, either way he will have to improve and run by far the best race of his career to have any shot at hitting the board.

No. 6 Gronkowski (Jose Ortiz, 12-1): He is this year’s version of “Patch” – a horse with a great story, likeable owners and a name which appeals to the casual bettor, and for those reasons he will receive quite a bit of play at the windows. Although he may be bet down near post, he has never raced on the dirt before and will be taking an enormous jump up in class while facing the longest test of his career as he has never raced longer than a mile in distance. Too difficult of an ask.

No. 7 Tenfold (Ricardo Santana Jr., 12-1): He ran a good race in the Preakness finishing third, less than a length behind Justify. He’s done well against Grade 1 competition, although he’s yet to record a win outside of allowance conditions. Although he’s another runner which will need to improve drastically and race by far the most impressive one of his career to contend, he may find himself with a perfect stalking trip. He’s a must include as a longshot play to round out the bottom half of your exacta or trifecta wagers at generous ML odds.

No. 8 Vino Rosso (John Velazquez, 8-1): The outside post really hindered his chances in the Derby and what happened to him is often what happens to runners with not a lot of early speed – he got shuffled back and was forced to race really wide to make a bid. Once again he draws an outside post, but with a much smaller field it should not be as detrimental if the break isn’t clean. He will certainly be hoping for faster early fractions or a pace collapse to clean up the pieces and make a run late in deep stretch.

No. 9 Noble Indy (Javier Castellano, 30-1): The outside post in the Derby seemingly forced him to break out of the gate quick, and it appears to have taken a lot out of him battling for early position as he faded badly before the half mile. His last two starts were run with blinkers and for the Belmont those will be taken off. The change isn’t that drastic as it can be for some, as his first three career races were run without them. Hopefully he breaks well and is forwardly placed, as his best chance to contend will come with him close to or setting the early pace.

No. 10 Blended Citizen (Kyle Frey, 15-1): With ten career races, Blended Citizen is tied for the most experienced runner in the field. Although he has a lot of starts, he has never faced off against Grade 1 competition so the jump up in class is substantial. Jockey Kyle Frey will also be making his debut racing in a Grade 1 race. This colt is entering with two wins out of his last three races so there may be an extra bit of confidence, especially with one of those being here at Belmont Park in a graded stakes race (he’s the only horse who has raced over this exact surface before and he already holds a win!)

Picks: 1. Justify 2. Vino Rosso 3. Hofburg

Betting the 2018 Belmont Stakes

One of the main things you have to understand is that no matter how unpredictable the Belmont Stakes his been historically, it is not a race for longshots in recent renditions.

Ten years ago, Da ‘Tara scored in the 2008 Belmont Stakes as a 38-1 longshot and Ruler on Ice won in 2010 thanks in large part to an injury suffered by heavy favorite Big Brown (one of the best horses bred this century).

More often than not, it’s an outsider that wins. This has a big range from Palace Malice in 2013 as a 15-1 shot all the way up to Union Rags as a 6-1 third choice in 2012.

Belmont Stakes – Saturday, June 9th at 4pm ET on NBC
1 ½ Miles – 3 Year Old Colts - $1.5 Million Purse

The favorite has only won once in the past ten years and that horse was 3-5 favorite American Pharoah. There’s a reason that this race is called the “Test of the Champion”. It’s also a graveyard of dreams.

So we have some directions we’re leaning ahead of the 2018 Belmont Stakes but it’s best to get to know the competitors before we lob suggestions your way.

THE FIELD
First you have to know who you’re dealing with. Here’s a rundown of the ten competitors in order of their post position, meaning that this is not a list in order of 2018 Belmont betting preference.

1. Justify (4-5)
Any bet on the 2018 Belmont Stakes basically has to involved Justify. First off, he’s the best horse in this race by a huge margin. Second, he is chasing history as the 13th Triple Crown champion. You want to be a part of this.

Verdict: No Brainer

2. Free Drop Billy (30-1)
Free Drop Billy simply has looked as competitive as anyone would’ve liked after a burst at the beginning of his juvenile season. He is the lowest rated contender in this field. I love to watch him run, but I don’t admire him as a competitor. Always a puncher’s chance in this sport, but there are much better longshots to bet on considering what we know.

Verdict: No Chance

3. Bravazo (8-1)
How you measure Bravazo is more so about how you measure production. This is not an outright talented horse, and he has never been properly given respect due to his overall pedigree. But when it comes to race day, Bravazo has a knack for delivering out of nowhere. That counts for something.

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There are two major knocks against Bravazo: he lost his jockey in the 2017 Kentucky Jockey Club back in November and was relegated to 10th. He then showed poorly in the Louisiana Derby. Since then? Sixth in the Kentucky Derby and runner-up in the Preakness.

If you’re going to make the argument that other contenders are “trending in the right direction” then Bravazo can’t be ignored. Nobody has trended in the right direction better than him. The 1 ½ mile course at the Belmont Stakes is the great equalizer, but I’m willing to take a chance. I’ve missed the boat on him too many times.

Verdict: Intriguing parlay stuffer

4. Hofburg (9-2 Second Choice)
Just so you newbies are aware, the phrase “second choice” is often used in Thoroughbred horse racing to delineate the next best horse on the board according to the oddsmakers. Hofburg is an interesting selection given that he finished 7th at the Kentucky Derby. Bettors will be relying on the enthusiasm of the training reports coming out of Hofburg’s camp, and the times he has set. They’re not otherworldly to be frank. Everyone talks a big game heading in to a big race. That’s part of the sport.

Validating Hofburg ahead of actual production is a tricky point, but we probably have to look no further than Tenfold to get a beat on this season. Tenfold enjoyed a similar boost in value despite long odds at the Preakness Stakes, and rallied to finish third but was still not up to par against Justify.

Hofburg could be like Creator, the surprise 10-1 winner of the 2016 Belmont Stakes, but that year did not have an outright, dominant favorite. I’m not sold that Hofburg is truly deserving of his ranking.

Verdict: At most I would wager a show bet on him.

5. Restoring Hope (30-1)
There are a few elements to admire about this longshot. He’s the son of Giant’s Causeway, one of the more celebrated stallions, and is also trained by Bob Baffert. But even owner Gary West said that, “We’re just taking a shot” when asked about his colt’s chances.

Verdict: Stay Away

6. Gronkowski (12-1)
He’s finally racing in the United States! Gronkowski’s number came in a lot lower than anticipated largely because of his name value. But he’s also a big unit, who has a massive engine. It’s impossible to believe that he is on the level of his rivals in this race. But he’s as fun of a gamble as there is.

Verdict: Stand alone flier play (win or place)

7. Tenfold (12-1)
Tenfold enjoyed an uptick in popularity in the Preakness, and was a missile down the homestretch, but more than anything he looks like a proper middle distance horse. This is not the type of race, nor the type of distance, that he can maintain a strong pace in. I didn’t love him in the Preakness, which was a mistake obviously, but I actually like him less in this race considering the conditions.

Verdict: Still off him…

8. Vino Rosso (8-1)
There’s no telling where Vino Ross actually fits in the big picture. He ran well in the leadup to the Kentucky Derby, winning the Wood Memorial, but then placed 9th which is just a hair out of the “respectable” portion of the losers. I’m not high on Vino Rosso. Especially at this distance.

Verdict: Not for me

9. Noble Indy (30-1)
Noble Indy caught my eye early on. He was very highly rated as a WinStar product (one of the best breeders in the country), and is trained by Todd Pletcher (essentially the second best trainer in the United States behind Baffert and well ahead of everyone else). Noble Indy finished a distant 17th in the Kentucky Derby. Given his long odds, he makes for a potentially profitable place bet hedge. But that’s only if the weather is optimal. There’s nothing that suggest that he’s keen for this distance as his pedigree suits him to shorter distances around a mile.

Verdict: A race day place bet hedge given that the weather is good. Don’t bet hi if the weather is remotely rainy.

10. Blended Citizen (15-1)
There’s usually a bridge bet between the outsiders and the longshots, and you’re staring at him. Coming from the outside gate gives Blended Citizen a bit more track to work with, which isn’t always a good thing considering the grueling distance of the Belmont Stakes. He’s taken an interested path by winning the 2018 Peter Pan handedly and then taking a month to prepare for this race.

Verdict: Very tough sell

THE PLAY

You can go about wagering on this race a few different ways. One is to just lob everything you’ve got at Justify, which pays out -125 (or $80 per $100 bet). He is, by all accounts, a legend in the making. Unlike the field of the Triple Crown over the last two seasons, he is far and away the best horse out there and has all the right backings, including trainer Bob Baffert.

Win Bet – No. 1 Justify
You’re not getting a step price right now, but by the time Saturday afternoon roles around it’s going to cost you a whole ton to get nominal value. Earlier is better. Join Justify in chasing history, damnit. It’s what sport is about.

Exacta – No. 1 Justify and No. 3 Bravazo
First and foremost, you build around Justify. As stated above I like him with Bravazo, because any other combinations just doesn’t feel great. You’re welcome to take a chance on some of the other threats like Hofburg or Tenfold but I’m just not as high on them as I want to be. Good Magic was similarly ignored in the lead-up to the Kentucky Derby and showed out by finishing second. Bravazo has accomplished too much just to cast him aside.

Upset Win – No. 6 Blended Citizen or No. 10 Gronkowski
They sort of have the kind of odds that most upset specialists hold heading in to a race like this. The nice part is that given their odds, you don’t really have to risk much to get a whole lot in return. You’re essentially getting +1500 odds on Blended Citizen and +1200 odds on Gronkowski, depending on when you wager. I don’t love either of them outright, but they make for good stand alone hedge bits. Packaging either as the third horse in a trifecta seems like a decent idea with Justify and Bravazo, but that’s a stretch even for me.

Eddie Olczyk's Belmont Picks: Take What They Give You

by Eddie Olczyk

June 6, 2018

Analysis: The Belmont Stakes always is interesting because you get some fresh horses to the Triple Crown series (new shooters), and you also get some who you think can get the mile and one-half distance. My handicapping take always has been that the mile and one-half race really boils down to about a half-mile. Positioning for each rider is all that is achieved in the first seven furlongs to a mile, and then it comes down to which horse is best over the last half-mile of those that are in the proper place. It’s a tough grind for a horse at the final part of the Triple Crown journey. When you hit the bottom of the tank, and believe me I recall that from my playing days, you’d better have something left or have a will to find it if it’s not really there.

Main Contenders: It is JUSTIFY’SBelmont to win or lose. They could have gone around again in the Preakness and nobody was going to get by him. He came out of the race well and has looked great in his training since then by all accounts. I’m not a chalk player, but sometimes you have to take what the races and the toteboard give you. There is some sentiment out there that he’s vulnerable and some handicappers will look to beat him. Six races since February 18 is a factor and a concern. But I trust in Bob Baffert, and his looks in training say “Yes!” If you wind up with 4-5 or 3-5 odds, that’s fair. HOFBURG is the other horse I trust most as he goes out for Hall of Fame Trainer, Mr. Bill Mott. He ran great in the Xpressbet Florida Derby and then didn’t have the cleanest of trips in Kentucky. Those big, sweeping turns at Belmont will hit him right between the eyes. He’s sitting on a big race and will relish the distance. It’s as if the Belmont was his target race from the beginning, especially given his pedigree, patient trainer and late start to his career.

Value Plays: Honestly, I can see anybody running third or fourth below the top pair. I will try to beat the Preakness pursuers, BRAVAZO and TENFOLD, as I don’t trust their performance at Pimlico as much as the margins suggest. I will attack the exacta with focus and use some of that uncertainty below in trying to land a price for the remaining slot in the trifecta.

Wagering Strategy ($100):

$52 Exacta: JUSTIFY over HOFBURG ($52)

$4 Trifecta Part-Wheel JUSTIFY over HOFBURG over ALL ($32)

$2 Trifecta Part-Wheel JUSTIFY over ALL over HOFBURG ($16)

Eddie’s Picks

JUSTIFY
HOFBURG
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I like Hofburg think justify runs outa gas
Noble Indy maybe a show

I’ve watched the replay over and over again restoring hope was used as a decoy for pace justify in 1 slot was sent to lead restore hope saddles up behind him holds the pack at a pace when time to go all horses are at a length to two disadvantage as restore hope fades back to the back

World class trainers shouldn’t be allowed more than 1 entry in prominent races like these
Not taking anything away from justify at all
But baffert made sure he was the victor