Betting news, trends, odds and predictions for from various handicappers and websites for Wednesday 6/6/18
PGA Tour Betting Preview
St. Jude Classic
TPC Southwind – Par 70 – 7,244 yards
We are a week before the year's second Major (US Open) on the PGA Tour and that means the Tour stops in Memphis this week for the St Jude Classic. It's a tournament, given its spot in the schedule, that's known for having a weaker field, a withdrawal or two, and having plenty of balls go in the water.
Since 2004, no course on Tour has had more balls go into the water than TPC Southwind and that's saying something considering it's TPC Sawgrass (The PLAYERS) that gets all the coverage regarding golf balls entering the wet stuff. I guess when everyone's mostly focused on the US Open the following week, many bettors, DFS golf players, and even the Tour pros themselves treat St Jude Classic week as more of an afterthought.
One guy who doesn't overlook this event is Daniel Berger (+2500). Berger is looking for the ultra-rare “three-peat” in golf as he's the two-time defending champion here. Course history guys are going to land on Berger (and Phil Mickelson) for the most part, but the way this course sets up, any style of player can win here. We've have bombers like Dustin Johnson win here, as well as short,accurate guys like Fabian Gomez, and Justin Leonard. TPC Southwind is a second shot course by far, so with length off the tee basically a negligent issue, it's all about sticking your approach shots this week.
Fairways are narrow at TPC Southwind, and with all that water (10) scattered all over the course, trouble lurks everywhere. It's important for guys to avoid those “disaster” holes with double, triples, and quads being made, so Bogey Avoidance is probably a stat you'll want to zoom in on this week. Along with that, it's the usual Strokes Gained: Approach that should be weighed the heaviest, a long with a few scrambling and Par 4 scoring numbers.
So with all that in mind, let's take a look at the three guys I'm targeting to have a solid week.
Odds per - Sportsbetting.ag
Golfers to Watch
Brooks Koepka (+900) – Honing in on one of the favorites is not typically something I like to do, but given this week field, I think you've got to look somewhere at the top. For me that's Brooks Koepka – who will be defending his US Open title next week – and while I hate to 'play on' guys the week before they defend a title (because they could be looking ahead, have more media obligations to deal with etc etc), my one exception to that rule is when the title defense comes at a different venue. Whether that be at a regular PGA Tour stop that switches up tracks, or, and probably more importantly, the final three Majors of the year, looking ahead to next week's title defense is not as worrisome. That's because their isn't quite the same feeling for these guys when they hit a different course as defending champ, and while media obligations will still be plenty, it's something I'm willing to live with compared to other events.
But when the only two knocks on Koepka this week deal with the small chance he's looking ahead to next week's US Open (but there are also others in this field in the same boat), and a price point of +900 being not great, it's tough not to like him here.
For one, Koepka has played in this tournament the last four years, so being here the week before the US Open is nothing new for him. This being his regular routine suggests that the “lookahead” effect will be negligible, especially when you consider that Koepka has a 2nd place finish (2016) and a 3rd place finish (2015) during his time at the St Jude Classic. Furthermore, since Koepka returned from injury at the start of May, he's played in three events, made the cut in each one, and has a T42, T11, and T2nd on his resume. That steady improvement has Koepka rounding right into form for June, something that Koepka has showcased the past few years. Just looking back at his results from May/June the past few years tells me that Koepka tends to peak around this time of year, and with how weak this field is, it's hard to imagine him not being involved in the leaderboard come Sunday.
Chez Reavie (+4000) – This odds range is the one I'm more comfortable playing pre-tourney selections and while Reavie's recent form hasn't been great for a month or two now (he really peaked back in February with consecutive runner-up finishes), he's got the game that is built for success at a second shot course like TPC Southwind when he's on.
GOLF - Payday Betting Props
Reavie ranks 9th in the field in terms of Strokes Gained: Approach (0.54), is 7th in Par 4 Birdie or Better numbers, and 6th in terms of bogey avoidance. That's a trifecta of numbers that are tough to ignore at a track like TPC Southwind where Par 4 scoring and avoiding disaster are key. Current form does bring some concerns with backing Reavie, but all it takes is one start to get things to click again, and knowing how weak this field is and Reavie having a great chance to play four rounds and figuring things out with his game as he goes, I'm expecting him to be a contender at some point this weekend.
Matt Jones (+10000) – Jones is a guy that's way down the odds board as he's not exactly a household name on Tour. There's good reason for that as he's struggled with consistency at times during his time on Tour, but the organizers at the St Jude Classic know who this guy is and probably expect him to play well here again this week.
Jones has been here the past three years and with finishes of 18th, 26th, and 3rd going back chronologically, there is some solid course history to fall back on with him. There is a bit to be desired in terms of his approach game (-0.22), but he's one of the better scramblers in this field (31st in Strokes Gained: Around the Green), and does sit in 10th in terms of this field for Par 4 Birdie or Better numbers. Add it all up at +10000 odds and if you're looking for a longshot, Jones should be it.
Odds to win FedEx St. Jude Classic - per Sportsbetting.ag
Dustin Johnson +650
Brooks Koepka +900
Henrik Stenson +1200
Phil Mickelson +1400
Tony Finau +2000
Billy Horschel +2200
Charl Schwartzel +2500
Daniel Berger +2500
Byeong-Hun An +2800
Joaquin Niemann +3300
Peter Uihlein +3300
Luke List +3300
Charles Howell III +4000
Steve Stricker +4000
Chez Reavie +4000
Kevin Chappell +5000
J.B. Holmes +6600
Shane Lowry +6600
Chris Kirk +6600
Harris English +6600
Brandt Snedeker +8000
Danny Lee +8000
Ryan Palmer +8000
Scott Piercy +8000
Keith Mitchell +8000
Kevin Tway +8000
Braden Thornberry +10000
Joel Dahmen +10000
James Hahn +10000
David Lingmerth +10000
Brian Gay +10000
Matt Jones +10000
Trey Mullinax +10000
Seamus Power +10000
I (Shazman) have my annual U.S. Open golf pool next week. If anyone is interested in joining in the details are in the link below. Thanks