Horses: At the Gate - Saturday

At the Gate - Saturday
March 30, 2018

While most of the talk this week has been centered around the $1 million Florida Derby (G1), I was pleasantly surprised to see an outstanding 10-race card at Aqueduct.

The New York Claiming Championships offer up 10 stakes this afternoon restricted to horses that have run for various claiming tags and the second half of the card features large and competitive fields.

The day starts early with Dubai World Cup night with first post at Meydan coming up 7:45am ET. Set your alarm clocks.

The feature is the $10 million Dubai World Cup (G1) which drew a solid field including U.S. invaders West Coast and Forever Unbridled.

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I am hoping that Breeders’ Cup Turf (G1) champ Talismanic takes to dirt and pulls off the upset. I have received nothing but positive feedback on how the five-year-old has looked the past couple of weeks.

The Florida Derby is a key Road to the Kentucky Derby point race with a field of nine going to the post.

It is pretty much a wide open field featuring Holy Bull (G2) winner Audible, Sam F. Davis (G3) runner up Catholic Boy and Fountain of Youth (G2) victor Promises Fulfilled.

There are six supporting stakes on an outstanding (and long) 14-race card.

After today’s action I am going to need a day off and Easter Sunday is tomorrow. Problem solved.

My Best Plays Multi Track Report for Saturday includes my 14 strongest plays from Aqueduct, Gulfstream Park and Meydan.

To purchase my Aqueduct, Gulfstream Park and Best Plays Reports for Saturday click here.

Here is the opening race from Aqueduct to get the day off to a good start:

AQU Race 1 The Karakorum Elektra (1:15 ET)
#3 She's So Fine 3-1
#5 Christmas Sky 1-1
#2 Princess Palomar 7-2
#4 Clairvoyant Lady 9-2

Analysis: She's So Fine caught a sloppy track last out and the mare raced evenly in a third-place finish against Alw-2 optional claimers. She earned competitive numbers last year and now makes her fourth start since coming back off the layoff. She was short first out and then was a decent third two back over a fast main track here. She won this race last year in the mud and now cuts back to seven furlongs. If she can recapture last year's form she fits here.

Christmas Sky took the field gate to wire to beat Alw-1 foes last out earning a career top speed fig. The runner up Total Control came back to beat Alw-1 foes here on March 18 and fifth place finisher Spring for More came back to beat $32,000 claimers in her next start on March 11. She went gate to wire in her last pair but she may not be quick enough early to do that here.

Wagering
WIN: #3 to win at 5-2 or better.
EX: 3 / 2,5
TRI: no play

Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Meydan:

MEY Race 9 The Dubai World Cup G1 (12:50 ET)
#7 Talismanic 7-1
#9 West Coast 4-5
#6 Forever Unbridled 8-1
#2 North America 8-1

Analysis: It is tough to take West Coast at such a short price so we will go with Breeders' Cup Turf (G1) champ Talismanic who makes his dirt debut. He ran well on the fake stuff last out in the Prix Darshaan off a three-month break beating a quality foe in Cloth of Stars, who is the 2-1 morning line favorite in the previous race, the Sheema Classic (G1). While his female side screams turf, his sire Medaglia d'Oro was a Grade 1 winner on dirt. He has landed din the exacta in 13 of 18 career starts and is sent out by the great Andre Fabre.

West Coast could not go with Gun Runner in his last two starts, a third in the Breeders' Cup Classic (G1) in his first start versus older and a solid second to him in the Pegasus World Cup (G1). The Baffert trainee has worked sharp since his last outing. The barn is 4 for 13 on the big night including winning this race last year with Arrogate. Speed has been holding throughout the Carnival on the main track and Castellano should be able to keep him within striking distance early. There is lots to like except for the short price.

Wagering
WIN: #7 to win at 5-1 or better.
EX: 7,9 / 2,6,7,9
TRI: 7,9 / 2,6,7,9 / 2,5,6,7,9

Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Aqueduct:

AQU Race 8 The Sis City (4:51 ET)
#10 Patriotic Endeavor 9-2
#2 Spring for More 8-1
#7 Cotton Candy Cutie 3-1
#4 Maddizaskar 8-1

Analysis: Patriotic Endeavor stalked the early pace and finished up well to beat $25,000 starter optional claimers in her last outing on Dec. 26 at Laurel Park as the 9-5 favorite. The runner up Princess Palomar came back to $25,000 starter optional claimers in her next start on Jan. 20. She was claimed out of her last outing by the Rice barn that is 31% winners (with a +ROI) first off the claim. She returns off a three month break here looks primed fora top effort here.
Spring for More tracked the early pace and drew clear late to beat $32,00 claimers here at a mile in her last start. She caught wet tracks two and three back with the seven-pound bug aboard. The low profile barn lands Carmouche here and she looks headed in the right direction. She may end up getting overlooked on the tote in this spot.

Wagering
WIN: #10 to win at 7-2 or better.
EX: 2,10 / 2,4,7,10
TRI: 2,10 / 2,4,7,10 / 2,4,5,7,10

Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Gulfstream Park:

GP Race 13 The Pan American G2 (6:00 ET)
#3 Hi Happy 3-1
#8 Sadler's Joy 2-1
#2 Bullards Alley 7-2
#9 One Go All Go 8-1

Analysis: Hi Happy came off a 10 month layoff with a solid effort, chasing the gate to wire winner Heart to Heart, a real tough one to catch. He makes his second start since landing with Pletcher and while he is 0 for 5 since arriving in the U.S. from Argentina he has earned solid Beyers over his last three starts, a career top 100 last out off the bench. He should get a good tracking trip and will have the jump o our second choice as they come into the stretch.

Sadler's Joy made his patented late run to rally from last to first to win the MacDiarmida (G2) last out at 1 3/68 miles. He won this race last year as well as the Sword Dancer (G1) and the extra ground here suit shim. He needs some pace and a trip and usually gets it. Our top pick is likely going to end up offering a bit more value for the top spot.

Bullards Alley was a game third last out in the McKnight 'Cap (G3) and looks headed back in the right direction form wise. He ran huge four back wining the Canadian International (G1) by 10 3/4 lengths. That was over soft ground which he is not going to get here. But he should get more pace here and after going two miles two back should be fit and ready to go in this spot for the Glyshaw barn.

Wagering
WIN: #3 to win at 3-1 or better.
EX: 3,8 / 2,3,8,9
TRI: 3,8 / 2,3,8,9 / 2,3,7,8,9

Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.

Aqueduct
R2: #3 Archumybaby 8-1
R5: #7 Carlino 8-1
R6: #3 Summer Bourbon 8-1
R7: #8 Rockford 10-1
R7: #9 Field of Courage 8-1
R8: #4 Maddizaskar 8-1
R9: #4 Mister Hayes 10-1
R9: #8 Street Heat 8-1
R10: #4 Global Positioning 12-1

Good luck today!

By Mike Dempsey

Handicapped by Rick Needham at Aqueduct

RACE #2 - AQUEDUCT - 1:45 PM EASTERN POST
The Videogenic Stakes
6.0 FURLONGS DIRT FILLIES AND MARES FOUR YEARS OLD AND UPWARD $12,500.00 STARTER STAKES $55,000.00 PURSE

#1 PICTURE DAY
#3 ARCHUMYBABY
#5 MY WON LOVE
#6 EXCHANGING SECRETS

Here in the 4th running of this event which is named after multiple graded stakes winner, Videogenic, #1 PICTURE DAY takes a class drop (-6), is the overall speed and pace profile leader, and has hit the board in "POWER RUN FASHION" in four of her last five outings, including a trio of "POWER RUN WINS" being embedded in this recent streak of racing consistency. Jockey Junior Alvarado and Trainer Linda Rice send her to the post ... they've hit the board with 65% of more than 65% of their entries saddled as a team to date. #3 ARCHUMYBABY has hit the board in "POWER RUN FASHION" in each of her last three starts, including a "POWER RUN WIN" in her last start.

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Gulfstream Park

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 12 - Stakes - 8.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $300000 Class Rating: 94

GULFSTREAM PARK OAKS - GRADE 2 FILLIES, THREE YEARS OLD. FREE NOMINATION BY SUNDAY, MARCH 18. $2,500 TO ENTER. $250,000 GUARANTEED, WHICH INCLUDES $50,000 FOR REGISTERED FLORIDA-BRED STARTERS TO BE SPLIT 70% TO THE WINNER, 20% TO SECOND, AND 10% TO THIRD. AFTER PAYMENT OF 1% TO ALL OWNERS OF HORSES FINISHING SIXTH THROUGH LAST, 62% OF THE REMAINING PURSE SHALL BE PAID TO THE

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks

# 7 HEAVENHASMYNIKKI 12/1

# 4 CACHE 8/1

# 13 ALTER MOON 30/1

I think about HEAVENHASMYNIKKI in this competition especially at a such a nice price. She has earned respectable figures under today's conditions and should fare well versus this group. Has to be considered in this contest if only for the very good speed rating recorded in the last race. CACHE - Has been racing solidly and has among the most favorable speed in the race for today's distance. The average class figure of 88 makes this entrant difficult to beat. ALTER MOON - With a solid 90 average Equibase Speed Fig at the distance, seems well suited for today's race. Could provide positive gains based on quite good recent speed figs with an average of 89.
__________________

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Sam Houston

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 6 - Trial - 440y on the Dirt. Purse: $4000 Class Rating: 86

QUARTER HORSE 440Y, FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOMINATED AND REMAIN ELIGIBLE. THREE YEAR OLDS.123 LBS; OLDER.126 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks

# 6 DASH QUICK PERRY 2/1

# 3 WILD TYCOON 5/2

# 4 TELLEREYEMATTHEBAR 7/2

My selection for this race is DASH QUICK PERRY. His 93 average has this gelding with among the strongest Equibase Speed Figures for this event. This pony has a terrific win percent in shorts. He has formidable class ratings, averaging 98, and has to be given a chance in this race. WILD TYCOON - Sound average Equibase Speed Figures in short races make this horse a solid choice. This trainer has done solidly lately with entries racing at this distance and surface. TELLEREYEMATTHEBAR - Solid average Equibase Speed Figures in short races make this pony a key contender. This gelding has a good win percent in short races.
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Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Laurel - Race #1 - Post: 1:10pm - Claiming - 7.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $21,000 Class Rating: 68

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#6 WITCHY'S LASTSTAND (ML=2/1)
#4 HERMANS GOLD (ML=8/1)
#7 BRAHMS ROMP (ML=7/2)

WITCHY'S LASTSTAND - This gelding has been running at higher class levels previously. He did win versus better, a $15,000 Claiming race though. I believe this one is in the right spot today. The fact that this gelding is entered right back into a race so quickly means he's fit and ready. This thoroughbred could be tough today, especially since Gonzalez rode last out and now should be familiar with this one. Another way to assign class is EPS (earnings per start). This racer has the highest in the group. I think he'll be close at the finish line. HERMANS GOLD - This gelding is in fine physical condition. Ended up first on Mar 17th. He keeps getting closer at the finish with each and every start. Recent speed ratings show powerful pattern of improvement. BRAHMS ROMP - You'll be generating money right and left by turning your betting money onto this rider/conditioner combination. Ness brings him back again. I advocate you stick with this live colt.

Vulnerable Contenders: #2 PORT LOUIS (ML=4/1), #3 ZESTY ZAR (ML=5/1), #5 LUCKY KICK (ML=6/1),

PORT LOUIS - In any contest of 7 furlongs, I like to play a contender that has been looking good in sprint races of late. Doubtful that the speed figure he registered on Mar 10th will be enough in this race. ZESTY ZAR - Don't feel this pony will do much running today. That last rating was pedestrian when compared with today's Equibase class figure. LUCKY KICK - Any horse coming out of a route affair should show some speed to clash with the sprinters.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:
#6 WITCHY'S LASTSTAND is going to be the play if we are getting 5/2 or better

EXACTA WAGERS:
6 with [4,7]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Box [4,6,7] Total Cost: $6

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Pass

SUPER HIGH 5 WAGERS:
Pass

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Santa Anita - Race #3 - Post: 1:04pm - Maiden Claiming - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $18,000 Class Rating: 87

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#5 WILLISTON DUDE (ML=7/2)
#7 DEFENSE MINISTER (ML=4/1)

WILLISTON DUDE - This gelding is in the top spot in (EPS) earnings per start. Check out this horse in the paddock. The February 18th race at Santa Anita was at a class level of (93). Dropping to a lower class rank significantly, so he should be in a good spot. Glatt gets a break on this horse carrying 10 lbs less than last out. Certainly could make the difference right here in this race. DEFENSE MINISTER - This colt is in nice form. Ran third on Mar 8th.

Vulnerable Contenders: #2 VEGAS ITCH (ML=9/5), #4 SPEND IT (ML=5/1), #3 LIGHTHOUSE POINT (ML=5/1),

VEGAS ITCH - Would be taking an underlay on this participant at the probable odds of 9/5. SPEND IT - This horse just hasn't looked fit of late. Tough to put any cash on this gelding on the win end. Likes to hit the board though. LIGHTHOUSE POINT - Hasn't been doing anything at all of late. Unlikely that the speed rating he garnered on Mar 8th will hold up in this event.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:
#5 WILLISTON DUDE to win at post-time odds of 9/5 or better

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [5,7]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Pass

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
None

SUPER HIGH 5 WAGERS:
Pass