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English Premier League Betting News and Notes

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English Premier League Betting Breakdown
Covers.com

Games of the week

Aston Villa -v- Manchester United

Aston Villa look to be in a world of trouble this Saturday, not only will they be missing half their team through injury and suspension, they'll also be facing the most "in-form" team in the League.

Man Utd have now won 6 straight, and the Bookies aren't expecting any surprises, the Red Devils can be backed at -162 for the away win.

Key stat: The last time Aston Villa beat Manchester United at home was in 1995

Arsenal –v- Liverpool

Premier League fixtures don't come much bigger than this, defeat for Liverpool could see Brendan Rogers lose his job; Liverpool who finished 2nd last season are struggling to beat anyone at the moment. A big performance will be required this Sunday if they’re to keep their hopes alive of playing European Football next year.

Arsenal have won 5 of their last 6 games in all competitions, and with last season's 5-1 thrashing fresh in their memory we should see a motivated Arsenal side take to the field this Sunday.

Key stat: Liverpool have only scored 6 Goals in their last 8 Premier League games

Underdog value: Everton (220) v Southampton

We like Everton this weekend, Southampton have lost 5 games in a row now, and there are signs that the Saints just don't have enough squad depth to see them through this tough period.

Southampton should be without Key players this Saturday, including Dušan Tadic and Graziano Pellè.

Key stat: Southampton have only scored once in their last 6 games

Key Injuries:

Aguero (Man City)
Tadic & Pelle (Southampton)
Smalling & Shaw( Man Utd)
Ramsey (Arsenal)
Balotelli & Lovern for Liverpool.

 
Posted : December 19, 2014 11:01 pm
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Aston Villa vs. Manchester United Betting Preview and Pick
By: William Duncan
Goal.com

A run of six successive Premier League victories has reignited Manchester United's title challenge, and they will look to maintain that momentum this Saturday (10 a.m. ET, NBC Sports Network).

Villa have struggled to find their best form in recent months, with Paul Lambert's side winning just two of their last 12 matches in all competitions, and the 45-year-old Scot will know that his side will need to be at their best to halt United this weekend.

Louis van Gaal's side cruised to 3-0 victory over Liverpool at Old Trafford on Sunday afternoon and can be backed at just -175 with William Hill U.S. to take maximum points from their trip to Villa Park.

Villa got a vital win over Leicester City on home turf earlier this month – their first home win since August – and Lambert's side are available at +505 with William Hill U.S. to beat United this weekend, while the same firm hang +300 that the match ends in a draw.

On the goal-spread, William Hill U.S. has Manchester United -1 goal (EVEN), with Aston Villa +1 goal (-120). The total is 2.5 goals (UNDER -115).

If Lambert's side are to get the better of the visitors at Villa Park, they will need to be much more clinical in front of goal than they have been thus far this term.

Remarkably, despite occupying 13th place in the Premier League, Aston Villa have notched just six goals in their last 12 matches and have scored only 10 goals in the top flight thus far this season – fewer than any other side.

Manchester United were dogged by defensive woes earlier in the campaign but seem to have put that behind them in recent weeks despite some ongoing injury concerns, with Van Gaal's men conceding just three goals in their last six outings.

David De Gea's form has certainly played a huge part in this, with the Spanish goalkeeper often contributing just as much to United's winning streak as their goalscorers.

Each of Manchester United's last five matches has seen three or more goals scored.

However, it should be noted that all but one of Villa's last six matches has produced fewer than three goals and, therefore, UNDER 2.5 goals could well prove popular with bettors here.

There's another price that stands out, though. With the visitors finally finding their best form and the home side desperately struggling for goals, it is the +163 odds for Manchester United to win in a shutout that appeals the most here. Such a prop can be found outside of Nevada, and it is this selection that is the recommended play for bettors this weekend.

Goal.com best bet: Manchester United to win in a shutout at -175.

 
Posted : December 19, 2014 11:21 pm
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EPL Best Bets - Week 17
By Toby Maxtone-Smith
VegasInsider.com

The Capital One Cup quarter-finals took place in England in midweek, and with four teams left it is Chelsea who are the favourites at 10/11. They overcame Championship high-flyers Derby 3-1. The Blues will face Liverpool, who also beat another good second-tier side, Bournemouth, by the same scoreline. Spurs put in arguably their best performance under Mauricio Pochettino in beating Newcastle 4-0, while the only shock was Southampton continuing their slump in form with a 1-0 defeat at League One side Sheffield United.

This weekend’s Premier League fixtures are the last before the ultra-hectic Christmas period. While most other European leagues have a break now, English teams will play on the 26th and the 28th December, as well as the 1st and 3rd January. These games can be crucial in deciding teams’ fates at the end of the season, as stamina is so important in the English game.

Let's handicap Week 17 of the Premier League.

Odds provided by Sportsbook.ag

The Banker: Over 2.5 goals in Liverpool vs. Arsenal at 8/11

Matches between two flawed teams tend to produce great entertainment, and Sunday’s game between Liverpool and Arsenal looks a good example of that. Neither team is good defensively, and there are questions over the teams’ mentality as well. Arsenal are the narrow favourites at 8/5 with Liverpool at 9/5, and I would not be too keen to get stuck into either price. The game promises lots of goals, and this should discourage a bet on a draw at 5/2. Liverpool played really well against Bournemouth in midweek - well enough for me to end (for now) my policy of opposing them in every game this season. Arsenal have played some good football of late, but their record in big matches is so bad that they are not value favourites here. However one good performance is not enough to go too strong on Liverpool.

So over 2.5 goals at 8/11 is the bet. In their last three halves of league football, Arsenal have scored six goals. They are relying less and less on Alexis Sanchez as Olivier Giroud, Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain and Aaron Ramsey start chipping in with goals. Liverpool still have a long way to go to being top 4 contenders, but there are reasons to be hopeful.

The Solid Bet: Manchester City to win to nil against Crystal Palace at 10/11

Manchester City have won their last five league games. This has put them just three points behind Chelsea, and they look very unlikely to lose ground this weekend as Crystal Palace come to the Etihad Stadium. The question here is how much of an effect will City’s injuries have on the outcome of the game. I think it will be quite minimal. They will probably not thrash Palace, who are a solid defensive unit anyway, but it is very likely they will only need one goal to win the match. Palace’s strategy in tough away games is to be very defensive, and the Eagles lack a top quality striker to make the most of their creativity.

City have won their last two games 1-0, against Everton and Leicester City, and a repeat of that scoreline looks quite likely at 5/1. 2-0 is 6/1. City’s defence has tightened up a lot of late, and they have now conceded just one fewer than Chelsea.

The Outsider: Everton to win at Southampton at 2/1

If there’s one team in the top half of the table to play at the moment, it is Southampton. They have lost their last five games. The first three of those were excusable, as they were against the two Manchester sides and Arsenal, but the last two have been 1-0 defeats at Burnley and Sheffield United. Both losses had elements of bad luck about them, but the performances were lacklustre. Graziano Pelle’s early season form seems a long way away now. They should not be such strong favourites at home to Everton, particularly without three key players. Central midfielders Victor Wanyama and Morgan Schneiderlin will be huge misses. They are the heart of the team and provide great protection to the back four. Winger Dusan Tadic also misses out.

Everton have had a stop-start season in the Premier League, partly because they are taking the Europa League seriously. However, having won their group and with no European action until February, the Merseysiders will be looking at the next six weeks as the time to climb up the table. They swept past QPR in their last game, winning 3-1, and are value at 2/1 to win this one.

The First Goalscorer: Eden Hazard for Chelsea at Stoke City at 6/1

Chelsea are 8/13 to win the Monday night game away to Stoke City. Their recent away form in the league, along with Stoke’s good record at home against the big teams means this should not be smashed into. However Eden Hazard looks a solid bet at 6/1 to open the scoring. The Belgian winger broke the deadlock for the West Londoners at Derby County in the League Cup on Tuesday with an excellent solo effort, and he has been getting amongst the goals more and more of late. He scored first in Chelsea’s last league game, and also against Tottenham on the 3rd December. Stoke’s defence is solid, but can be caught out against the most skilful attackers, meaning penalties are likely to be given away. Hazard takes Chelsea’s penalties.

 
Posted : December 20, 2014 7:36 am
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