Champions League Best Bets - Tuesday
By Toby Maxtone-Smith
VegasInsider.com
Real Madrid have made a disastrous start to their La Liga season, but they remain firm Champions League favourites after just one round of group stage games.
Next come PSG, rampant 5-0 winners away to Celtic - usually one of the hardest away ties in Europe of all the non-elite clubs. They are 11/2.
Barcelona and Bayern Munich remain locked level at 6/1. Manchester City and Manchester United are at 10/1, with Group C rivals Chelsea and Atletico Madrid both at 16/1.
Whoever wins that group will have a very good chance of getting deep into the tournament. Then it’s Juventus at 18/1, Tottenham Hotspur at 28/1, Liverpool 33/1, Napoli 40/1, Borussia Dortmund 50/1 and everyone else 50/1 or bigger.
The Banker: Monaco to beat FC Porto at 23/20
Monaco may have had one of the most gifted groups of players assembled at one European club in decades ripped apart over the summer, but a few remainers and some clever business in the transfer market has ensured that they will be challenging, if not for the French title, then at least for the top three. They have won six of their opening seven games, as well as drawing away to Red Bull Leipzig.
They meet FC Porto in their first Champions League home game, and the prices indicate that both teams are of almost identical quality, with Monaco being 23/20 favourites due to home advantage. This is wrong. Porto were beaten 3-1 at home by an unfancied Besiktas side, and while the win was something of a smash-and-grab effort, the Turks showed that Porto can be vulnerable on the counter-attack. And who better to take advantage of that than Monaco?
The Solid Bet: Real Madrid to win away at Borussia Dortmund at 31/20
Borussia Dortmund were somewhat unfortunate to lose 3-1 at Spurs, given that they had several key players injured and ended up dominating possession in London. Marco Reus is still out for Dortmund, as are Andre Schurrle, Raphael Guerreiro and any possible left-backs.
So even though Real Madrid are without Karim Benzema and Marcelo, their superior squad depth is enough to make them appealing narrow favourites at 31/20. Los Blancos recovered from their 1-0 home defeat to Real Betis with an unconvincing win away to Deportivo Alaves, but Zidane’s side are sure to click sooner or later. And in what should be a fascinating, open game, this could be the night that happens.
The Outsider: Besiktas to beat Red Bull Leipzig at 21/10
As mentioned above, Besiktas pulled off an impressive, if slightly fortuitous win away to FC Porto on matchday one, but they will still be full of confidence when Champions League newboys Red Bull Leipzig come to Istanbul in a group with no clearly outstanding team.
Red Bull were last season’s surprise package in the Bundesliga, finishing second in their first ever season in the top flight. But the squad is very light on Champions League experience, and it is likely they will need one year at least to get used to playing in this competition.
Besiktas, meanwhile, are regulars at this level over the last few seasons. They have avoided defeat in their last five Champions League home games, and at 21/10 could be value outsiders.
The First Goalscorer: Mohamed Salah for Liverpool away to Spartak Moscow at 9/2
Liverpool’s trip to face Spartak Moscow may be easier than it looks. Russia’s biggest club have had an awful start to their season, winning just three of their first 11 games. However, with the long travel time and Liverpool’s inconsistency, the visitors are not too tempting at 4/6 to win the match.
A much better bet is Mohamed Salah to score first. The Egyptian has already scored five times in his short Liverpool career, including three in his last three games. Already he has struck up fine partnerships with Philippe Coutinho and Sadio Mané. Coutinho is 4/1 and Mané 9/2, and so Salah’s recent eye for goal makes him the best value of that trio.