Golfers to Bet - Wyndham
By Sportsbook.ag
Sedgefield Country Club will be hosting the Wyndham Championship for a ninth consecutive year beginning Thursday.
Most of the top golfers in the world will be sitting this one out, but there is still some talent in this field.
The most noteworthy golfer participating on Thursday is Jimmy Walker, who won the PGA Championship in late July. This is Walker’s first event back since winning his first major and he’ll surely be hoping to keep up his excellent play this weekend.
One unfortunate thing to note when coming into this tournament is that last year’s winner, Davis Love III, is not going to be playing. He has won this tournament three times in his career, so it’s an absence that will certainly be felt.
2014 winner Camilo Villegas and 2013 winner Patrick Reed will both, however, be playing on Thursday and that should help make up for the loss of Love III.
With that information out of the way, let’s now take a look at some of the better plays this weekend:
Golfers to Watch
Patrick Reed (19/1) - As mentioned earlier, Reed won this tournament back in 2013 and he’ll be hoping to do it again when he takes the course on Thursday. Reed was impressive that year, shooting a 14-under to defeat Jordan Spieth in a playoff. The 14th ranked golfer in the OWGR also happens to be playing pretty well coming into this one. Reed has finished tied for 11th at each of the past two tournaments, shooting a total of 15-under in those two events. Reed also has two second-place finishes on the season and will certainly be hoping to break through and win his first event of the year. He has a good shot to do so at 19/11, as he has all the talent needed to dominate a relatively weak field this weekend.
Jim Furyk (23/1) - Jim Furyk is 46 years old, but that hasn’t held him back recently. Furyk is coming off of the round of his life, shooting a 58 in the final round of the Travelers Championship in early August. That was the record for best score ever shot on the TOUR and being that it was his most recent round played, Furyk should be coming into this event with a ton of confidence. He might not be able to drive the ball like some of his peers, but Furyk is excellent with his irons and knows how to make putts. At 23/11, it’s worth taking the guy that just might be on a serious roll coming into this one.
Jimmy Walker (33/1) - Jimmy Walker surprised a lot of people by winning the PGA Championship a few weeks ago, but he has actually been playing some incredible golf for nearly two years now. Walker finished 25th in the OWGR in 2015 and he is now ranked in 17th. All signs points to Walker continuing to improve, as he is just getting more and more confident each time he gets out onto a course. Walker doesn’t have anything that will wow people, but he is a solid player all around and doesn’t make a lot of mistakes. He’s a tremendous value at 33/11, as he will be hoping to make a big statement by coming out on top after his first major victory.
Camilo Villegas (150/1) - When looking for a dark horse to win this tournament, Villegas is the guy that really stands out as an insane value. As previously mentioned, Villegas won this tournament in 2014 and he was pretty dominant in doing so, shooting a 17-under to defeat both Bill Haas and Fredrik Jacobson by a stroke. Being that this is the same course Villegas won on, there are plenty of reasons to believe that he is capable of performing at a high level here again. He’s worth putting a half-unit on at 150/11.
SPORTS WAGERS
The 2016 Wyndham Championship
This par 70, 7,127-yard stretch has produced some low-scoring masterclasses and some surprise winners. After Webb Simpson, Patrick Reed, and Sergio Garcia took the honors from 2012 to 2014, the two subsequent champions have been Camilo Villegas and Davis Love III, and both with a score of -17 to boot. That is great insight into the kind of free-scoring barnburner to expect this week and the longshot potential too.
Extra bunkers have been added, and the Bentgrass greens changed to Bermuda, but low scoring has remained a constant in deciding the outcome of the trophy here. The greens are smaller than average but run at a reasonable pace (around 12 on the stimp) and are reliably undulating. The trend is for strong putters who are accurate off the tee and who can avoid falling into the few traps that are present. In truth, getting the ball onto the dancefloor and putting your boots off is the smart play this weekend. Also, with a 60% chance of rain on Thursday and Friday, a good tee time will of course help.
To really add some color to those claims, let’s examine the performances of the past five champions. Only one of them has ranked outside the Top 15 for Driving Accuracy in the last five years, with Davis Love III, the 2015 champ, just sneaking into the upper echelons in 10th. Three have gone Top 20 for Greens in Regulation (Reed, Villegas and Love III) while the last seven winners – yes, seven – have ranked inside the Top 25 for Putting Average. That gives us an idea of which golfers to target.
A mixed field will feature players who turned out in Illinois last week and those risking all kinds of jetlag and illness, having returned from Rio de Janeiro just 72 hours ahead of the first tee. Will fatigue be a factor? You would have to assume so, and as such it is likely to be wise to swerve any Olympians in Greensboro this week.
Here are five sleepers we’re going to invest in: Wagers to win outright will be placed ay Bet365 because of their washout option during the event. Heads up wagers will be placed at :
Kevin Kisner 50-1
The South Carolina native started the 2016 season like a house on fire, but after a barren spring/early summer, it is no surprise to see his betting odds tumble to the mark they are this week. However, the signs suggest that Kisner is returning to somewhere near his best. A T10 at the Dean & Deluca in May preceded three cuts made at the majors, including a T18 at the PGA Championship last time out in July. T16 at the WGC Bridgestone and a T26 at the Canadian Open confirm our suspicions that Kisner’s swing has returned.
Kisner is three-for-three at Sedgefield Country Club, including a best of T8 in 2014, so we have no qualms about his suitability for the test in hand. Indeed, his numbers suggest he is tailor-made for this stretch: he ranks seventh on the PGA Tour for Putting Average, 12th for Strokes Gained: Putting, 40th for Total Driving, and 32nd for Par 4 Scoring Average. Kisner has the game to attack the par 5’s while keeping his nose clean on the par 4’s, which is very handy here. Kisner’s best trio of performances came back in January, when he carded -18, -22 and -16 in the HSBC Champions, the RSM Classic and the Sony Open respectively. If he can recapture that form, and it looks positive on that front, then a birdie shootout will clearly not faze him (Risking 0.2 units to win 10 units).
Head-to-head matchup:
K. Kisner -109 over T. Hatton (Risking 1.09 units to win 1).
Ben Martin 70-1
When shortlisting candidates, we look at a few key areas: course history, current form, statistical make up, and suitability for the track. Ben Martin ticks all of these boxes with relish. Barring a missed cut back in 2010, his only trip to Sedgefield yielded a T10 finish, while in his last outing he was just two shots shy of Ryan Moore at the John Deere Classic to finish second.
Another South Carolina native, Martin has returned six Top 25’s this season, and made the cut in 18 out of 24 events entered, so this young man is clearly heading in the right direction. He is carving out a reputation as something of a Bermudagrass specialist too, and his performances on this surface tend to outdo those on Bentgrass, etc.
Martin is a free-scoring cyborg, ranking in the Top 40 on tour for both Par 4 Scoring Average (32nd) and Par 5 Birdies or Better Leaders (30th), who is arrow straight off the tee (23rd for Driving Accuracy) and decent with the flatstick (42nd for Strokes Gained: Putting). Coming in off the back of his JDC exploits, expect Martin to go well again here.(Risking 0.2 units to win 14 units).
Head-to-head matchup:
B. Martin -140 over R Garrigus (Risking 1.4 units to win 1).
Jason Dufner 50-1
It is sad to see the Dufner’s career come to this: a place in midfield in a lineup lacking in star quality but that is representative of his own fall from grace. But like Kisner, there is evidence to suggest he is finding his feet once again. 10 straight cuts made is a nice place to start – a run headlined by Top 10 returns in the US Open and Dean & Deluca, plus a T22 in the Open Championship. His PGA Championship campaign was a disappointment, but he did play the par 5’s in -3, so let’s hope he can take advantage again on the longer stretches this week.
Dufner’s previous best here was seventh back in 2012, and, interestingly, he won the 2013 PGA Championship at the Donald Ross-designed Oak Hill Country Club – he is also responsible for Sedgefield too, which gives us a handy insight into Dufner’s suitability for the setup. Not many in the world are better at converting on the par 5’s (he ranks 30th for Par 5 Birdie or Better Leaders) nor consolidating on par 4’s (32nd for Par 4 Scoring Average), and with an ability to deliver the ball to the green in a timely manner (30th for Total Driving and 12th for Greens in Regulation), Dufner is a player to get onside this week (Risking 0.2 units to win 10 units).
Head-to-head matchup:
L. Dufner +109 over K. Bradley (Risking 1 unit).
Adam Hadwin 80-1
This has been something of a breakthrough season for the Canadian, and with a FedExCup place secured, he can now relax and enjoy a final tune-up ahead of the PGA Tour curtain call. A T8 at the John Deere Classic was pleasing for his supporters, and a 25% success rate in making the Top 25 of tournaments entered suggests he is a man worth having on your side for events like this that appear to suit him.
Hadwin’s only appearance at Sedgefield saw him finish T51, but his game has improved so much this year, and he is performing astonishingly well on the green, ranking fifth for Putting Average and 14th for Stroked Gained: Putting, as well as Top 50 verdicts for Total Driving (46th) and Par 4 Scoring Average (49th). It’s handy having young players that are upwardly mobile on board at this time of the season, and Hadwin’s brilliance with the flatstick could get him into contention this week. (Risking 0.2 units to win 16 units).
Head-to-head matchup:
A. Hadwin -109 over C. Kirk (Risking 1.09 units to win 1).
Bud Cauley 80-1
Cauley enjoyed a fine four days to finish T8 at the John Deere Classic last week. Despite his fledgling years, Cauley already has two missed cuts to his name at Sedgefield, but a T3 in 2012 highlights his suitability and so do his stats, ranking second for Par 5 Birdie or Better Leaders, 14th for Total Driving, and 20th for Par 4 Scoring Average. That’s a very nice make up for this particular test.
Also handy is that a place in the FedExCup is at hand, and at this point in the season, when burnout can be a factor, having a player onside who is motivated to go well always helps. Cauley has made four cuts on the spin, and his GIR and Driving Accuracy performance of 79% and 81% respectively at the John Deere is indicative of how well he is stroking the ball right now. We played him last week at 125-1 and he wasn’t far off and so we’re not going to be a week late and miss him here should be pop.
Head-to-head matchup:
B. Cauley -101 over S. Brown