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Kentucky Derby News and Notes

Kentucky Derby News and Notes 3 months 5 days ago #542627

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Betting news, trends, odds and predictions from various handicappers and websites for Thursday 5/5/22
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Kentucky Derby News and Notes 3 months 5 days ago #542628

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Kentucky Derby Track Trends for Saturday, May 7
Thom Cunningham

MO DONEGAL (10-1)

Jockey: Irad Ortiz, Jr. (Kentucky Derby Wins: 0)
Trainer: Todd Pletcher (Kentucky Derby Wins: 2)

Won three of his last four races.
Top 3 result in five straight races.

Recent Result: 1st at Wood Memorial, Dirt (9 furlongs finished at 1:47.96)
HAPPY JACK (30-1)

Jockey: Rafael Bejarano (Kentucky Derby Wins: 0)
Trainer: Doug O'Neill (Kentucky Derby Wins: 2)

Two straight third-place finishes.
No Top 2 results in last three races that were at least 8 furlongs

Recent Result: 3rd at Santa Anita Derby, Dirt (9 furlongs)
EPICENTER (7-2)

Jockey: Joel Rosario (Kentucky Derby Wins: 1)
Trainer: Steven Asmussen (Kentucky Derby Wins: 0)

Won four of his last five races
Top 3 result in five straight races.

Recent Result: 1st at Louisiana Derby, Dirt (9.5 furlongs finished at 1:54.38)
SUMMER IS TOMORROW (30-1)

Jockey: Mickael Barzalona (Kentucky Derby Wins: 0)
Trainer: Bhupat Seemar (Kentucky Derby Wins: 0)

Top 3 result in four of his last six races.
Only race at least 8 furlongs saw a second-place finish.

Recent Result: 2nd at UAE Derby, Dirt (9.5 furlongs)
SMILE HAPPY (20-1)

Jockey: Corey Lanerie (Kentucky Derby Wins: 0)
Trainer: Ken McPeek (Kentucky Derby Wins: 0)

Top 3 result in four straight races.
Won two of last four races.

Recent Result: 2nd at Blue Grass Stakes, Dirt (9 furlongs)
MESSIER (8-1)

Jockey: John Velazquez (Kentucky Derby Wins: 3)
Trainer: Tim Yakteen (Kentucky Derby Wins: 0)

Top 3 result in six straight races.
Won two straight races after finishing in second-place the race prior.

Recent Result: 2nd at Santa Anita Derby, Dirt (9 furlongs)
CROWN PRIDE (20-1)

Jockey: Christophe Lemaire (Kentucky Derby Wins: 0)
Trainer: Koichi Shintani (Kentucky Derby Wins: 0)

Won three of last four races.
Only career finish outside the Top 3 was his only race under at least eight furlongs.

Recent Result: 1st at UAE Derby, Dirt (9.5 furlongs finished at 1:59.76)
CHARGE IT (20-1)

Jockey: Lusi Saez (Kentucky Derby Wins: 0)
Trainer: Todd Pletcher (Kentucky Derby Wins: 3)

Second-place finish in two of his last three races.
Top 2 result in three straight races.

Recent Result: 2nd at Florida Derby, Dirt (9 furlongs)
TIZ THE BOMB (30-1)

Jockey: Brian Hernandez, Jr. (Kentucky Derby Wins: 0)
Trainer: Ken McPeek (Kentucky Derby Wins: 0)

Won five of his last seven races.
Only one Top 3 result in his last three races when racing on a dirt track.

Recent Result: 1st at Jeff Ruby Steaks, Synthetic (9 furlongs finished at 1:48.60)
ZANDON (3-1)

Jockey: Flavien Prat (Kentucky Derby Wins: 1)
Trainer: Chad Brown (Kentucky Derby Wins: 0)

Top 3 result in four straight races when racing on a dirt track.

Recent Result: 1st at Blue Grass Stakes, Dirt (9 furlongs finished at 1:50.35)
PIONEER OF MEDINA (30-1)

Jockey: Joe Bravo (Kentucky Derby Wins: 0)
Trainer: Todd Pletcher (Kentucky Derby Wins: 3)

Third-place or worse in three of his last five races.
Top 3 in five of his last six races.
Won two of last four races when racing on a dirt track.

Recent Result: 3rd at Louisiana Derby, Dirt (9.5 furlongs)
TAIBA (12-1)

Jockey: Mike Smith (Kentucky Derby Wins: 2)
Trainer: Tim Yakteen (Kentucky Derby Wins: 0)

Won his only two races.

Recent Result: 1st at Santa Anita Derby, Dirt (9 furlongs finished at 1:48.67)
SIMPLIFICATION (20-1)

Jockey: Jose Ortiz (Kentucky Derby Wins: 0)
Trainer: Antonio Sano (Kentucky Derby Wins: 0)

Three straight wins after failing to win the race prior.
Top 3 result in six straight races.
Only finish outside the Top 3 was raced on a synthetic track.

Recent Result: 3rd at Florida Derby, Dirt (9 furlongs)
BARBER ROAD (30-1)

Jockey: Reylu Gutierrez (Kentucky Derby Wins: 0)
Trainer: John Ortiz (Kentucky Derby Wins: 0)

Second-place result in four of his last five races.
Top 3 result in seven straight races.

Recent Result: 2nd at Arkansas Derby, Dirt (9 furlongs)
WHITE ABARRIO (10-1)

Jockey: Tyler Gaffalione (Kentucky Derby Wins: 0)
Trainer: Saffie Joseph, Jr. (Kentucky Derby Wins: 0)

Won four of his last five races.
Top 3 result in five straight races.

Recent Result: 1st at Florida Derby, Dirt (9 furlongs finished at 1:50.64)
CYBERKNIFE (20-1)

Jockey: Florent Geroux (Kentucky Derby Wins: 1)
Trainer: Brad Cox (Kentucky Derby Wins: 1)

Won three of his last four races.
Top 3 result in five of his last six races.

Recent Result: 1st at Arkansas Derby, Dirt (9 furlongs finished at 1:50.42)
CLASSIC CAUSEWAY (30-1)

Jockey: Julien Leparoux (Kentucky Derby Wins: 0)
Trainer: Brian Lynch (Kentucky Derby Wins: 0)

Won two of his last three races
Finished 11th last race.
Top 3 result in five of his last six races.

Recent Result: 11th at Florida Derby, Dirt (9 furlongs)
TAWNY PORT (30-1)

Jockey: Ricardo Santana, Jr. (Kentucky Derby Wins: 0)
Trainer: Brad Cox (Kentucky Derby Wins: 1)

Won last dirt track race, but finished in fifth-place the dirt track race prior.
Top 3 result in four of his last five races.
Won three of his last five races, only one of those wins was on a dirt track race however.
No wins when racing at 9 furlongs or more.

Recent Result: 1st at Lexington Stakes, Dirt (8.5 furlongs finished at 1:45.24)
ZOZOS (20-1)

Jockey: Manny Franco (Kentucky Derby Wins: 0)
Trainer: Brad Cox (Kentucky Derby Wins: 1)

Won three of his last four races.

Recent Result: 1st at Louisiana Derby, Dirt (9.5 furlongs finished at 1:54.38)
ETHEREAL ROAD (30-1)

Jockey: Luis Contreras (Kentucky Derby Wins: 0)
Trainer: D. Wayne Lukas (Kentucky Derby Wins: 4)

No Top 3 results in four of his last seven races, including two straight.
One win in last seven races.

Recent Result: 4th at Lexington Stakes, Dirt (8.5 furlongs)
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Kentucky Derby News and Notes 3 months 4 days ago #542656

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Kentucky Derby News and Notes 3 months 3 days ago #542679

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Top Horse Racing Picks for Saturday, May 7, 2022
By J.W. Paine in Horse Racing

It’s finally Kentucky Derby Day! While we dodge the insane hats and all the attempts to sell us yet another mint julep (we didn’t want the first three, either, but we took them just to be polite), let’s take a look at my picks for each of the top horse races on the Saturday card.

We’ll finish up, of course, with the “Fastest Two Minutes in Sports”—the 2022 Kentucky Derby. And if you don’t mind, while you’re reading on, I’ll just help myself to another mint julep.

Oh, and before I forget, you can get the full odds on all the horses racing at Churchill Downs with a quick visit to one of our top horse betting sites.

Good luck!
My Saturday Picks for Kentucky Derby Day at Churchill Downs
Race five —Churchill Distaff Turf Mile S. (Grade II)

This is a $500,000 purse, one-mile turf run for fillies and mares four years old and upward.

While Speak of the Devil—the 2/1 morning-line favorite—looks interesting and will certainly be a serious contender, the French import has not raced in the States, and I have my doubts she’ll be up to the competition here.

So my two dollars is on the second-favored Lady Speightspeare, ridden by Luis Saez.

This four-year-old chestnut filly moneyed seven of her eight career starts, winning four. Among those wins were the Natalma Stakes (Grade I) in late 2020 and the Bessarabian Stakes (Grade II) last November, both at Woodbine.

Lady Speightspeare notably finished third in the Jenny Wiley Stakes (Grade I) at Keenland last month.

Thoroughbred Horse Racing Hall of Famer Roger L. Attfield trains Lady Speightspeare for owner-breeder Charles E. Fipke.
Race six — Overnight Stakes

This is a $160,000 purse, one-mile dirt run for four-year-olds and upward.

As unimpressive as this 12-horse field is, I’m going to buy a win ticket on the third-favored entry (at 6/1) Necker Island, piloted by Mitchell Murrill.

This five-year-old moneyed 11 of his 22 career starts, winning six, including the Sunshine Stakes (Listed) last November here at Churchill Downs. He’s posted triple-digit speed figures for his last six races.

Chris A. Hartman trains Necker Island for The Scherr Boys.
Race seven — Pat Day Mile Stakes (Grade II)

This is a $500,000 purse, one-mile dirt track race for three-year-olds. I have to agree with the morning line hear: Bet on the 2/1 favorite, Jack Christopher, with Jose L. Ortiz in the irons.

This chestnut colt won both of his career starts—his maiden last August at Saratoga and the Champagne Stakes (Grade I) at Belmont Park in October.
While he’ll see some competition here, Jack Christopher should easily reach the winner’s circle.

Multiple Eclipse Award winner Chad C. Brown trains Jack Christopher for owners Jim Bakke and Gerald Isbister.
Race eight — Derby City Distaff Stakes (Grade I)

This is a $750,000 purse, seven-furlong dirt track run for fillies and mares four years old and upward.

This race isn’t as clear-cut a victory for the favorite as it might appear, but I’m inclined to go along with the morning-line here: Bet on the 3/1 favorite, Just One Time, with Flavien Prat in the irons.

This four-year-old chestnut filly finished in the money six of her seven career starts, winning all six. Her most recent wins were the Inside Information Stakes (Grade II) at Gulfstream Park in January and the Madison Stakes (Grade I) at Keeneland just last month.

Who’s got this horse race? Just One Time’s got this horse race.

Brad H. Cox trains Just One Time for owners Warriors Reward, LLC and Commonwealth New Era Racing.
Race nine — American Turf Stakes (Grade II)

This is a $500,000 purse, 1-1/16 miles turf race for three-year-olds. The morning line picks the winner here: 7/2 favorite Sy Dog, ridden by ace jockey Irad Ortiz, Jr.

This three-year-old dark bay colt won all three of his career starts, including his initial maiden last October, the Central Park Stakes (Black Type) in November at Aqueduct, and the Transylvania Stakes (Grade III) at Keeneland last month.

Triple Crown and Breeders’ Cup veteran H. Graham Motion trains Sy Dog for Head of Plains Partners LLC.
Race ten — Churchill Downs Stakes (Grade I)

This is a $750,000 purse, seven-furlong dirt track run for four-year-olds and upward. Once again, the morning-line steals my thunder by naming my pick moments before I do: Bet the 5/2 favorite, Jackie’s Warrior, with Joel Rosario in the irons.

This four-year-old bay colt has been a success story his entire career, and he’s certainly the standout in this talented eight-horse field. For the record, Jackie’s Warrior moneyed eleven of his 13 career starts, winning nine. That includes his most recent race—the Count Fleet Sprint Handicap (Grade III) at Oaklawn Park in April.
With the exception of his maiden run, Jackie’s Warrior has competed entirely in graded stakes races. Even without checking my math, I think you’ll agree that this is his race to lose.

Steven M. Asmussen trains Jackie’s Warrior for owners J. Kirk Robison and Judy Robison.
Race eleven — Turf Classic Stakes (Grade I)

This is a $1,000,000 purse, 1-1/8 miles turf run for four-year-olds and upward.

While the French underdog Tribhuvan might provide some competition here, this looks like a clean win for the 3/1 favorite, Shirl’s Speight, piloted by Luis Saez.

This five-year-old finished in the money six of his nine career starts, winning five. His most recent wins were the Tampa Bay Stakes (Grade III) at Tampa Bay in February and the Maker’s Mark Mile Stakes (Grade I) at Keeneland in April.

Longtime horse racing veteran and Hall of Famer Roger L. Attfield trains Shirl’s Speight for owner-breeder Charles E. Fipke.
Race twelve — Kentucky Derby (Grade I)

This is a $3,000,000 purse, 1-1/4 miles dirt track race for three-year-olds.

I’m sticking with my prediction from last week for this horse race and betting all two of my dollars on the 10/1 underdog, White Abarrio, ridden by veteran jockey Tyler Gaffalione.

The gray roan colt has been on the Road to the Kentucky Derby leaderboard since he finished third in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes last November. Since then, he won the Holy Bull Stakes (Grade III) in February and the Florida Derby just last month to finish up #3 on the leaderboard under Epicenter and Zandon.
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Kentucky Derby News and Notes 3 months 3 days ago #542680

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Rocket Picks ��: Churchill Downs, Oaklawn Park, and Belmont Park for May 7, 2022
By: Aaron Halterman

Happy Kentucky Derby Day to all of you! For the free pick 4, we will head to Churchill Downs for the EARLY sequence on the card. We will also have full card selections for Oaklawn Park and Belmont Park for the paid Rockets, so be sure to check those out. Let’s go!

Below is our free Late Pick 4 for Churchill Downs:

Churchill Downs May 7, 2022

Race 2: Allowance Optional Claiming

#2 Stayed In for Half has been solid in three starts and fits with this group. #4 Surfer Dude ran second in a stakes race last time out at Keeneland and gets Irad back aboard for the second straight race.

Race 3: Allowance
freestar

#7 Final Belle has been a close fourth in two starts this year at Gulfstream Park and Keeneland. Today could be the day for her. #8 Talking Book should improve with Rosario aboard for the second time.

Race 4: Allowance Optional Claiming

#2 Bye Bye Bobby gets a big rider upgrade today, which should help, while also getting class relief in this spot. #1 McLaren Vale moves barns again today, while getting back to facing just 3-year-old’s in this spot.

Race 5: Churchill Distaff Turf Mile Stakes (G2)

#8 Speak of the Devil makes her United States debut for Chad Brown while getting Flavien Prat aboard, which is a great sign. She has won 2 in a row while earning Timeform speed figures that stand out amongst this group. #7 In Italian will go for her fourth straight win after an impressive Honey Fox Stakes score last time out.

THE TICKET

$.50 Pick 4 (Races 2-5) 2,4,6,7 / 3,7,8,10 / 1,2,4,10 / 8 – $32
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