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Free Premium Service Plays For Saturday 7/4/20 1 month 1 day ago #521627

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Betting news, trends, odds and predictions from various handicappers and websites for Saturday 7/4/20
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Free Premium Service Plays For Saturday 7/4/20 1 month 1 day ago #521628

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Saturday, July 4: Belmont Park Late Pick 4 Ticket

July 2, 2020 | By Dustin Fabian

Last week in this space, we came a head from hitting the (admittedly low-paying) Late Pick 4 at Churchill Downs. Unfortunately, Crystal Cliffs had a tough stretch run in the G3 Regret while Harvey’s Lil Goil had a dream trip and pulled it out by a slim margin.

Hopefully we have a little more luck this week as we turn our attention to Belmont Park’s loaded Fourth of July card.

Many of Saturday’s races – traditionally run on the Belmont Stakes undercard – would be in the books already. But due to the difficulty of scheduling an abbreviated meet, we get to enjoy them this weekend.

The Met Mile and Manhattan, the day’s co-features, attracted phenomenal fields of top notch racehorses including MCKINZIE, CODE OF HONOR and VEKOMA in the Met and INSTILLED REGARD, ROCKEMPEROR and SADLER’S JOY in the Manhattan. Sprinkle in horses like GOT STORMY, FRANK’S ROCKETTE, TACITUS and SIR WINSTON throughout the card and this is a day of racing you won’t want to miss.

Met Mile Day Essential Reading

Here’s my take on the Late Pick 4 (Races 8 – 11):

Race 8 (5:13PM ET) – Poker (G3, $150K) – 1 Mile Turf

The Opening Leg of the Late Pick 4 is a really solid edition of the G3 Poker and I think you have to use several horses to get through it. The Chad Brown-trained duo of #2 VALID POINT and #9 VALUE PROPOSITION are ‘must’ uses and I think you have to give #7 GOT STORMY another shot. She scratched out of the G1 Just a Game last weekend to run here and it’s hard to blame the connections – I wouldn’t have wanted to face Newspaperofrecord and Uni either. GOT STORMY will need to capture her best form but her best day is on par with any of these. I’ve chased #3 HAWKISH and #5 SOCIAL PARANOIA enough in recent starts to use them again.

Pick 4 ‘Use’ Horses: #2 VALID POINT, #7 GOT STORMY, #9 VALUE PROPOSITION
Pick 4 ‘Bigger Ticket’ Consider Horses: None

Race 9 (5:47PM ET) – Met Mile (G1, $500K) – 1 Mile Dirt

#3 MCKINZIE seems best suited for this one-turn mile trip and should have beaten Sprint Champion Mitole in this race last year if not for a tumultuous trip. He’s definitely the horse to beat on Saturday in my eyes and I will bet that accordingly. #5 CODE OF HONOR is one we must consider at Belmont and #2 VEKOMA has a pace advantage on the top picks as he’ll be drafting just in behind the speed. That said, it’s one thing to run away and hide from NETWORK EFFECT and American Anthem – another MCKINZIE and CODE OF HONOR. #7 MR FREEZE gets back to the one-turn mile trip over which he ran the best race of his life in the G2 Gulfstream Park Mile on February 29, but he needs to prove he can run that well away from Gulfstream.

Pick 4 ‘Use’ Horses: #3 MCKINZIE, #5 CODE OF HONOR
Pick 4 ‘Bigger Ticket’ Consider Horses: #2 VEKOMA

Race 10 (6:20PM ET) – Manhattan (G1, $400K) – 1 1/4 Miles Turf

The Chad Brown show continues in New York as he sends out three horses here and all have a big shot - #1 INSTILLED REGARD, #2 ROCKEMPEROR and #5 DEVAMANI. History says the winner should come from this group (Brown has won this race five times since 2012 and four of the last six) so we don’t need to get cute in looking for a winner. Of Brown’s four starters, INSTILLED REGARD is the likeliest winner with his other two charges being much more pace dependent. I’m adding #3 CROSS BORDER as a ‘consider’ as he has the potential to be lone speed and give his backers some thrills at a decent price.

Pick 4 ‘Use’ Horses: #1 INSTILLED REGARD, #2 ROCKEMPEROR, #5 DEVAMANI
Pick 4 ‘Bigger Ticket’ Consider Horses: #3 CROSS BORDER

Race 11 (6:51PM ET) – Suburban (G2, $200K) – 1 1/4 Miles Dirt

It would be hard to envision singling #1 TACITUS in this spot given all of the disappointment that one has given his backers in the last 14 months. Since winning the G2 Wood Memorial he is 0-for-7. That said, he exits a useful prep in the G2 Oaklawn Handicap and should move forward from that effort. #6 SIR WINSTON won the Belmont last year but isn’t a standout. #4 MR. BUFF is a New York bred who runs his best races on the lead.

Pick 4 ‘Use’ Horses: #1 TACITUS, #8 MORETTI
Pick 4 ‘Bigger Ticket’ Consider Horses: #4 MR. BUFF, #6 SIR WINSTON

My Ticket

Race 8: #2 VALID POINT, #7 GOT STORMY, #9 VALUE PROPOSITION
Race 9: #3 MCKINZIE, #5 CODE OF HONOR
Race 10: #1 INSTILLED REGARD, #2 ROCKEMPEROR, #5 DEVAMANI
Race 11: #1 TACITUS, #8 MORETTI

Ticket Cost: $36 for $1
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Free Premium Service Plays For Saturday 7/4/20 1 month 1 day ago #521629

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Race of the Week: Metropolitan Handicap at Belmont

July 2, 2020 | By Jeremy Plonk

GRADE 1 $500,000 METROPOLITAN HANDICAP AT BELMONT PARK
Saturday, July 4, 2020
By Jeremy Plonk

The Lead:
Independence Day fireworks do not have to wait until sunset. Belmont Park's July 4 card includes 5 major stakes, headlined by the Grade 1 Metropolitan Handicap, long a staple on Memorial Day, more recently on Belmont Stakes Day and this year re-slated a bit later due to the COVID-19 shuffling. It's a must-see race that often spawns a superstar performance around Belmont's 1-turn mile trip.

​Field Depth:
Grade 1 winners McKINZIE, CODE OF HONOR, VEKOMA and HOG CREEK HUSTLE highlight just half the field. MR. FREEZE is Grade 2 winner and Grade 1-placed, while WARRIOR'S CHARGE is a Grade 3 winner and Grade 2-placed. NETWORK EFFECT is Grade 1-placed, while ENDORSED is Grade 3-placed with the most to prove. These are high-quality performers who have competed at elite levels with no discernible 'class' edge.

Pace:
We don't have a champion sprinter like Mitole in this race as we witnessed in 2019. The speed is more route speed, likely to come from outside drawn WARRIOR'S CHARGE and MR. FREEZE next door. VEKOMA should be forwardly placed and could be inserted into the fray if Javier Castellano wants to secure the rail into the far turn, but his mount does his best running often outside and could sit third hoping to pounce. This does not appear to be an overwhelming pace and those near the front could be advantaged.

Our Eyes:
CODE OF HONOR and ENDORSED ran 1-2 in the Grade 3 Westchester June 6 at a prep for the Met Mile. Only a half-length separated them, though CODE OF HONOR was returning from a 7-month hiatus and didn't get a great set-up behind a moderate pace. ENDORSED was a bit quicker into the fray, held gamely and validated his 3 previous starts in 2020. It seemed if ENDORSED had CODE OF HONOR's number, it would have been then. The form cycle shift goes to CODE OF HONOR, though the weight shift is significant and now a 7-pound spread in favor of ENDORSED. Even so, CODE OF HONOR has been nearly flawless over the Belmont main track in 4 starts, John Velazquez has won the Met a record 5 times, and trainer Shug McGaughey tasted victory here as recent as 2015 with Honor Code.

McKINZIE finished second in this race a year ago when chasing home the eventual champion sprinter. This is a different kind of Met, but he's versatile enough to be a major force in most scenarios. He is age 5 now and has had an unconventional 2020 season with a trip to Saudi Arabia and return to California. The Triple Bend victory at Santa Anita last out was against inferior competition, but no fault of his own. But just how good is he now? Saturday will be the test. It's notable that 8 straight Met Mile winners, and 9 of the last 10, were 4-year-olds. He's got to show he can skate with the younger speedsters now.

VEKOMA and NETWORK EFFECT completed the Grade 1 Carter exacta over 7 furlongs on June 6, but VEKOMA left no doubt with a 7-1/4 length winning margin. Perhaps the sloppy track propelled some of the gap between rivals, but VEKOMA impressed nonetheless. He's 2-for-2 sprinting at Belmont, but the mile distance obviously is within his scope after capturing last year's Grade 2 Blue Grass over 9 furlongs and 2 turns at Keeneland. Though trainer George Weaver is just 1-for-26 in Belmont 1-turn miles, according to 1/ST BET statistics, VEKOMA seems highly capable of adding to his Carter score at a furlong farther.

WARRIOR'S CHARGE and MR. FREEZE exit the Grade 2 Oaklawn Handicap, where they finished 2-3 behind By My Standards, who returned last week to run a very good second in the Grade 2 Stephen Foster at Churchill. This was a quality effort from both, and their Met chances increase if VEKOMA is rated a bit off their pace. Not only are both of these runners capable of making the front, they've posted 101-103 BRIS late pace figures in their last 5 combined starts. If they are punching at a reasonable tempo, they will not give ground easily in the lane. You'll have to high-tail to run by them.

HOG CREEK HUSTLE will be at the back of the pack with CODE OF HONOR and will need a) pace help, b) clean sailing, and c) a stronger kick than the favored rival. That's a lot to ask, and it still doesn't put him ahead of some of the others. But his best race came here in the Grade 1 Woody Stephens last year at 18-1. So don't tell him that he can't do it. Jose Ortiz rides. This one might be better as a closing sprinter with a faster pace than at a mile.

Most Certain Exotics Contender: CODE OF HONOR will come with his run over his favorite track.

​Best Longshot Exotics Contender: WARRIOR'S CHARGE and MR. FREEZE have a similar profile and identical path to success. Both appear very live in this spot for one or both to hold for shares. Perhaps the 4-year-old WARRIOR'S CHARGE has the edge on Met Mile history.

Sending it in ($100 bankroll): Let's take the main players with the speed price. $35 exacta part-wheel CODE OF HONOR, VEKOMA over WARRIOR'S CHARGE ($70); $15 exacta part-wheel WARRIOR'S CHARGE over CODE OF HONOR, VEKOMA ($30).
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Free Premium Service Plays For Saturday 7/4/20 1 month 1 day ago #521630

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Saturday, July 4: Gulfstream Park Late Pick 4 Selections

July 2, 2020 | By Jerry Shottenkirk

The Azalea Stakes and Carry Back Stakes are good early-summer black-type opportunities for Florida’s 3-year-olds and a good chance for players to nail a challenging Late Pick 4 on Saturday.

The Pick 4 begins with the Azalea Stakes for fillies and continues with claimers, the Carry Back and maiden claimers to finish the day.

Here’s a look at the Pick 4 races:

Race 9 (3:00PM ET, Azalea S.)

The Azalea is a good test as the fillies attempt to carry their speed seven furlongs. BANKRUPTONTHEBEACH has had just two starts and showed promise by winning her maiden voyage at Monmouth last July. She was a non-threatening seventh in a stakes race at Laurel in her comeback in February and has had some decent drills for her 1st in about five months. With fresh legs, she could bring an element of surprise against those that have been running lately. DON’T GET KHOZY took several starts in which to figure out this game, and she has had it down pat with wins in four of her last five. Hot-riding newcomer Joseph Trejos is perfect in two starts aboard her and those two have been in easy fashion. A similar effort in this will make her extremely difficult to hold off. BOERNE whistled in three straight races before running second in the Game Face Stakes here. She’s a strong front-runner, has takes on good fillies and likely will get the most play. She’s the one to catch.

Race 10 (3:30PM ET, Claiming)

This is the spread race, as five of these make an appearance on the ticket. RODDICK won the last time he was on turf and can be strong from the beginning. SIR SEAMUS was a clear winner in two of his last three and beat ‘non-winners of three’ last out. TWENTY FOUR SEVEN was claimed two back by the Joseph barn and was third in his return. Has finished well in most of his recent races and can make a run here. AMERICAN NINJA has an upset chance, especially if he runs back to his latest, when he closed from far back and was third, beaten a half-length. He’ll get a good pace to follow and could be the one to watch for in the drive to the wire on the green. HOT AND HEAVY was up in time after stalking from just off the pace and can be close-up throughout. Showed a lot of gameness in his latest, and that definitely makes him a player here.

Race 11 (4:00PM ET, Carry Back S.)

CAJUN BROTHER failed at a mile last time after two wins to begin his career. He’s strong on the front end and can give it an honest go at seven furlongs. Could be the target as they turn for home. OUBLE CROWN was up in time in the Roar Stakes last out and another effort last that one will make him difficult to beat. This is his 1st attempt beyond 6.5 furlongs, and that could be an equalizer for others. WITH VERVE has some quality experience and beat outstanding runners in the Hutcheson. He came from off the pace and was a closing third behind Double Crown in the Roar and likely will appreciate the distance.

Race 12 (4:30PM ET, Maiden Claiming)

DR. SAMADI and CURLINGO are the players on the Pick 4 card in this finale. DR. SAMADI roared from far back and finished second in his debut. Another such effort should get him to the winner’s circle. CURLINGO never showed interest in his only start and quickly takes a drop to a claiming price, which is unusual for a $900,000 yearling purchase. The Edgard Zayas-Todd Pletcher jockey-trainer combo is five of their last 13. The drop could be what it takes for this Curlin colt.

Late Pick 4 Saturday at Gulfstream Park:

Race 9: #1 Bankruptonthebeach, #5 Don’t Get Khozy, #6 Boerne
Race 10: #4 Roddick, #7 Sir Seamus, #9 Twenty Four Seven, #10 American Ninja, #11 Hot and Heavy
Race 11: #2 Cajun Brother, #5 Double Crown, #6 With Verve
Race 12: #2 Dr. Samadi, #3 Curlingo

50-cent Late Pick 4 Suggested Ticket: 1-5-6 with 4-7-9-10-11 with 2-5-6 with 2-3 ($45).
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Free Premium Service Plays For Saturday 7/4/20 1 month 1 day ago #521631

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Micah Roberts


HOT DOG!!!


12:40 ET


Joey Chestnut and Miki Sudo will try to extend their dominance in the world's premier hunger game when they take on the best competitive eaters in the world in the 2020 Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest on July 4th. Chestnut, a 12-time champion, is a -1400 favorite in the men's competition, while Sudo, a six-time winner, is a -700 favorite on the women's side. The event starts at Noon ET from Coney Island in New York.


SportsLine analyst Micah Roberts has broken down the odds for the competitors and the number of hot dogs that will be consumed. A former Vegas Bookmaker who follows the hot dog competition closely.




Men's competition
Joey Chestnut -1400
Field (Any other competitor) +700
PICK: This is where a point spread of laying hog dogs would be helpful to even out the odds. No one wants to lay -1400 when the competitors haven't been named. But with Chestnut winning 12 times in the past 13 years and setting his best marks in the last four years says there is no one in his class. His results the past four years have been aided by the embarrassment of losing to Matt Stonie in 2015. Because of the coronavirus pandemic, no crowd will be pushing him, but he'll still win.


Over/Under total eaten by men's winner
Over 72.5 -150
Under 72.5 +120
PICK: Chestnut has topped this number only once, and while he won't be in front of the fans and air-conditioning could help, I'll go with the trends and stay under 72.5.


Will Joey Chestnut break his own record of 74 hot dogs eaten?
No -180
Yes +150
PICK: This price is interesting considering No is such a big favorite when Over 72.5 was favored. Anyway, I'll take No and lay the price.


Women's competition
Miki Sudo -700
Field (Any other competitor) +400
PICK: Miki Sudo has won the last five Nathan's contests for women and should do it again.


Over/Under total eaten by women's winner
Over 36.5 -160
Under 36.5 +130
PICK: Sudo won last year but ate "only" 31 hot dogs, which is the fewest amount she's consumed while winning. Her most was 41 in 2017. Under is the play.
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Free Premium Service Plays For Saturday 7/4/20 1 month 1 day ago #521632

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Al Cimaglia: Meadowlands Early Pick 4 Analysis

July 4, 2020 | By Al Cimaglia

The main event for the 4th of July card at the Meadowlands happens in Race 8, when 11-trotters compete in the Arthur J. Cutler Final. The Final has a $170,900 purse and features a rematch of two great mares, Manchego, and Atlanta. The 0.50 Early Pick 4 begins in Race 6. The sequence has a $50,000 guaranteed pool with a 15% takeout and it will be my focus.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 6

2-Century Farroh (7/2)-Wbsb regular just missed in the Graduate at TgDn. This is the Big M debut and should enjoy the mile oval, best to respect.
3-Covered Bridge (9/2)-Big try from the 9-hole at TgDn to come 2nd to #6. Now gets a post edge. Burke trainee likes the track and should be in the hunt.
6-Dancin Lou (9/5)-Winner of both starts in 2020, has taken control at the top of the stretch and has finished off each mile. Deserves respect but this appears to be a good test.

Race 7

3-Ocean Colony (3-1)-Gets some needed post relief and Miller should put the 6-year-old in play early on. Likes the track and could be sitting on a big try.
5-Rockapelo (7/2)-Gets some needed class relief and Gingras could blast out to take control. Burke pupil has been camera shy, but this is a spot to shine. Maybe Gingras can squeeze a bit more out of him to finish off the mile.
7-Saying Grace N (8-1)-Drops to a more comfortable level and there might be a few that could be leaving for the top. That means the pace could be hot and Zeron should have the Cullipher trainee rolling down the lane at a nice price.

Race 8

5-Atlanta (7/2)-Lost to #6 by a nostril on 6/19 but showed a lot of heart to dig in late. Not surprised by the tenacity and that was the 1st start since 11/23. Could be better tonight in what looks like another battle royal.
6-Manchego (3-1)-A perfect 2-2 this year and was bet down to .30 on the dollar last time versus Atlanta. This rivalry should last all year and fortunately we get to witness two champions battling each other.

Race 9

5-Soho Burning Love A (5-1)-Aussie invader seems to be getting better in each start. Last win in 148.4 looked effortless but now faces a tougher crowd. Not sure what the top end for this mare is and will use at a square price here.
8-Kissin In The Sand (9/5)-Qualified and then won on 6/5 at this class in a sharp 147.4. Came back on 6/27 to tune-up again in 149.1. In against similar and does look like the probable winner barring a bad trip.

0.50 Early Pick 4

2,3,6/3,5,7/5,6/5,8
Total Bet=$18
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Jeff Siegel's Day Makers - 7/4/20

July 4, 2020

JEFF SIEGEL’S NATIONAL DAY MAKERS FOR SATURDAY, JULY 4, 2020
*

Jeff Siegel’s prime plays from around the country are offered on a daily basis to members of xpressbet.com and 1stbet.com. Always the day’s the cream of the crop, Day Makers emphasize price and wagering value and each selection should be given strong consideration both as a straight wager and as a key in vertical and horizontal exotics.
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BELMONT PARK – 2nd RACE. POST TIME: 1:49 ET
2 – SPIRIT ANIMAL (7/2)

Made his first start as a 4-year-old off a seven month layoff and left his previous from behind when annihilating a restricted $50,000 claiming field three weeks ago with devastating late kick while registering a five and one-half length score and career top speed figure. Claimed by R. Rodriguez and protected on the raise after a recent bullet five furlong main track drill, the son of Lemon Drop Kid, a winner of three of six career starts, switches to J. Rosario, lands a favorable inside post, and should be capable of handling the class hike. At 7/2 on the morning line he’ll offer plenty of value both in the win pool and in rolling exotic play.

*

GULFSTREAM PARK – 7th RACE. POST TIME: 3:00 ET
3 – PLUM FUNNY (3-1)

Homebred son of Distorted Humor from the multiple Grade-1 winner Plum Pretty finally makes it to the post midway through his 3-year-old son and has trained like the goods for R. Nicks (solid stats with debut runners). While the work tab doesn’t jump off the page, this impressive chestnut colt has handled everything that’s been matched up with him in the morning and should be plenty fit and ready for a top effort first crack out of the box. The barn’s “go-to” rider E. Jaramillo takes the call, so at 4-1 on the morning line we’ll make him a win play and key in all of our rolling exotics.

*

BELMONT PARK – 5th RACE. POST TIME: 3:30 ET
7 -FORTIN HILL (5/2)

Had a right to be rusty in his first start since last June when rallying to be second in his comeback at Gulfstream Park in April and finding his best stride late after being somewhat sluggish early. Freshened for more than 10 weeks since that race but with a steady, healthy recent work tab, the son of Much Macho Macho lands the cozy outside draw, is reunited with “win rider” I. Ortiz, Jr., and returns to Belmont Park, where he is unbeaten in two starts. There should be no excuses today, so we’ll make him a win play and rolling exotic single while hoping to get close to his morning line odds of 5/2.

*

BELMONT PARK – 6TH RACE. POST TIME: 4:03 ET
8 – YES TO MISCHIEF (8-1)

Let’s take shot at a price with this well-bred first-time starter in a seven furlong turf affair for older maiden fillies and mares. A $400,000 OBS March Sale purchase last year after she breezed a blistering furlong in 10 seconds flat in the preview session, the daughter of Into Mischief might be a tad late to the party but hails from an outfit that hits at a respectable 17% with debut runners and shows a work tab that includes several good drills to have her plenty fit. By Into Mischief from a female family that includes major stakes winning turf runners Broken Dreams and Caribou Club, the M. Casse-trained filly looks like a live item and is worth a bit of gamble at 8-1 on the morning line.

*
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Brian Nadeau's Daily Picks

Belmont Park - Race #3
Picks Notes
#3 Reagan's Edge Stalker impressed getting up in fast time going shorter at CD, and while this is a big step up in class, the heavy favorite is hardly overwhelming, this miss has a ton of upside off just three starts, and the price will be right too; upset special.
#1 Frank's Rockette Deserving odds-on favorite will win this with her best, and she may be a Lone F, as there's not much pace on paper here, but note she's 0-3 in graded stakes, all at short odds, and the gut says she will get some pressure early; backwheel time.
#2 Up in Smoke Stretch runner is undefeated in four one-turn starts, and she finally ran fast in winning a small GP stakes last time too, though the race flow isn't going to help her, unless they go crazy early, which doesn't seem likely; runs out of room in the lane.
Race Summary That 8-1 ML is plenty worth the risk-reward on the 3, especially since she ran as fast as the chalk last time, so give her a look to win and place, and especially in the early Pk5/Pk4 as well, since anyone on a budget will be singling the 1, even though her margin for error isn't as wide as the tote will suggest, and the pick could be poised for another breakthrough.

Belmont Park - Race #8
Picks Notes
#9 Value Propostiion Lightly raced runner for Brown came back off the long break with aplomb in winning for fun over AOC foes, and though he spots some experience to a few good ones, that run last time says the sky is a limit; a star is born.
#3 Hawkish The pick's stablemate had a trip last time and didn't get to show what he's all about, yet he still ran on late to be a better-than-it-looked 5th, now makes his third start off the long layoff, and will be a price too; exotics appeal.
#2 Valid Point Brown's third is a GI winner against 3yos, so clearly he's a big player here, though he hasn't been seen since a total no-show in a Kee GI, is unproven against older, and picks a tough spot to come back in; tabbing for next time.
Race Summary You're not going to get rich on the 9, that much we know, but there are others here who will be bet, so that 5-2 ML might hold, and that would be worthy of a stiff win and place bet, though you can get some real value by singling him in the late Pk5, and to kick off the late Pk4 as well, since this is a race the public might want to spread in, even though a repeat of his last, much less a move forward, says the rest are running for second-money.

Belmont Park - Race #9
Picks Notes
#2 Vekoma Streaking runner has been absolutely eye catching in two romps this year, including an extremely fast laugher in the slop here in a GI last time, seems perfectly suited for the mile, should trip out perfectly just off the speed, and yet he might not even be favored; love his chances here.
#5 Code of Honor GI winning 3yo was up in time to win his seasonal debut and prep in a local GIII last time, and Shug is just aces when he points for a race, which he's done with this one for quite some time, though he's going to be spotting open lengths to the pick off the far turn; the one to fear late.
#3 McKinzie ML favorite for Baffert certainly figures, especially since he cut back and won an SA GII last time going 7Fs, and note he was a very troubled 2nd in this last year too, but there's no value here, he's no win machine, and the top pair haven't reached their ceiling either; making him prove it.
Race Summary Talk about a now horse and you have the 2 as the blueprint, as he comes into this better than ever, while hinting there's more in the tank too, so play him aggressively to win and place, while getting some added value by singling him in the late Pk5/Pk4 as well, since he looks like the prototypical Met Mile horse, full of tactical speed and stamina, and that gives him a big edge on his two main rivals as well.
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Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Ellis Park - Race #4
Picks Notes
#9 Really Slow No standouts in here from those who have run, but this guy might have enough upside to be interesting. He showed a little chasing pace last out and now stretches out on the turf.
#4 The Right Stuff Ward debuter obviously deserves respect first time out, but the barn's gaudy first-out stats don't really paint a complete picture. The limited number of Ward 2yo debuters going long have been dismal, and both of his runners here will probably take some cash.
#7 Brew Pub Didn't show a whole lot in the debut, but he took some cash that day and now adds blinkers. Might be well meant in this spot today.
Race Summary Really Slow will be a solid price on the tote and has some upside on the move to the turf. He didn't show much in two starts, but it's also worth noting he got beat 15 lengths last out, but almost nine of those were dropped on him by Cazadero who came to win the Grade III Bashford Manor without taking a deep breath.

Ellis Park - Race #8
Picks Notes
#3 Per Diem Debuter gets Lanerie up, and he has absolutely dominated Ellis Park turf sprints over the last few years, connecting at 32%. Outside of the rail runner, there doesn't appear to be much to worry about here.
#1 Sky Ride Maiden has had seven chances, but that effort last out stacks up very well with what it would take to win here. That said, he was 26/1 that day and now he's likely offer a much, much shorter price.
#6 Hillbilly Deluxe Ran an okay race when trying this trip locally in the debut last year, and he has some room to improve on the cutback.
Race Summary Per Diem debuts for a capable barn, and ace local turf sprint jock Lanerie signs on. This field feels pretty soft for the level. and he won't need to be a superstar to graduate at first asking.

Ellis Park - Race #9
Picks Notes
#11 Peddlers Pride Drops off a mild finishing effort last out, and Graham excels in maiden claiming turf routes here, winning with nearly a third of his rides with those types of horses. This spot feels pretty open, and he should offer a fair price even as one of the betting favorites.
#9 Carmel Bay Think that debut can lead to something better this time around, and he has a little bit of pace to get in the mix in the early going.
#12 Amended Cox barn can win with just about any kind right now, and they were solid over the local turf course here last year. Betting this guy will be ready.
Race Summary Peddlers Pride gets into an easier spot today and gets the rider for the situation in James Graham. This guy's late kick might produce something a bit better against this softer bunch.
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Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

Pocono Downs - Race #1
Picks Notes
#3 OUR ZAK WHITBY A Pressed odds-on winner a long way at Buffalo, use in all gimmicks.
#8 CATCH MY SHADOW Rallied first-over for back-to-back wins at Pocono.
#7 ROCKNROLL CHARM Has two wins and a second in last three starts at 5/8-mile oval.
Race Summary Let’s hope for some early fireworks with a longshot stab on Our Zak Whitby A (20-1), who was parked the mile, drew within a length of the 2-to-5 winner in early stretch and earned the top recent speed figure in the field. Play a 3-7-8 exacta box.

Woodbine-Mohawk Park - Race #6
Picks Notes
#4 INDICTABLE HANOVER Toyed with rivals in first two starts, gets acid test tonight.
#7 BEACH BLANKET BOOK Won three straight with ease, got faster and faster doing it.
#6 ANETO Improving, gets pace to run at, price attached.
Race Summary Indictable Hanover was tons the best in both of his starts, now takes on sire stakes ‘gold’ competition for the first time. Not going against him until proven otherwise. Play 4-6 and 4-7 exactas.

Meadowlands - Race #11
Picks Notes
#8 PERSIMMON A Turned back odds-on fave, worth a price play in deep field.
#4 CAPT MIDNIGHT Multiple stakes-winning 2yo returns off two winning qualifiers.
#7 HARAMBE DEO Couldn’t reach the pace-setter through :26.1 final quarter mile.
Race Summary Persimmon A repelled a strong bid by the 3-to-5 favorite and prevailed, earning a playback at a good price on the class rise tonight. Play a 4-7-8 exacta box.
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