Betting news, trends, odds and predictions for from various handicappers and websites for Wednesday 7/1/20
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By Matt Blunt
Date: Thursday, July 2, 2020 to Sunday, July 5, 2020
Venue: Detroit Golf Club
Location: Detroit, Michigan
Par-Yardage: : 72, 7,340 yards
TV: Golf Channel, CBS
PGA is Off to Detroit!
The PGA Tour continues forward this week with its second-ever trip to the Detroit Golf Club after Nate Lashley won the inaugural event here last season. All of that newness has prompted many of the games biggest names to tag this as their week off, as this week is the first ho-hum field since the restart.
That's not necessarily a bad thing from a betting standpoint, as these are the tournaments where you may be able to connect on a big price with plenty of guys going low here. Those are the tournaments where it won't all be big names at the top, and if you're able to have a guy with nice odds up there, Sunday's can be fun with all the potential hedging for profit scenarios out there.
So congrats to those of you that were on Dustin Johnson last week, as backing him at the RBC Heritage proved to be a week too early. Last week's selections of Bryson Dechambeau (+650) and J.T Poston (+5000) are among the names at the top – Dechambeau is the tournament favorite – so we will track their progress this week, but let's get right into the course out in Detroit.
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PointsBet Sportsbook, one of the best US online sportsbooks, is running excellent promotions for the entire PGA Tour. For each tour event, there will be an updated PointsBet bonus offer. This weekend, the Rocket Mortgage Classic bonus gives new users the chance to get $100 in free bets. Bet $50 on any golfer to finish in the top 10; if you're right, PointsBet gives you $100 in free bets! Note, this must be your first bet at PointsBet, so golf fans should sign up today to claim this PointsBet promotion and bet on the Rocket Mortgage Classic in the PGA Tour.
It's always interesting to see just how quickly these pros can chew up a new venue, and with -10 needed to finish 42nd here in the inaugural event, you'd better be backing guys that are able to consistently go low.
Length and tree lines are the main concern for these guys with each tee shot, but a lack of real penal spots around the course means that guys have got to go low, and they've got to do it in a hurry. Last year, guys had to be -5 or better through two rounds just to see the weekend, and to see a similar number this week would not be surprising at all.
Greens in regulation is always going to be a good place to start when researching events you know will have a low score, and then things like proximity to the hole and other Strokes Gained numbers can be added on from there.
Rocket Mortgage Classic Odds to Win
Bryson DeChambeau: +650
Webb Simpson: +1200
Hideki Matsuyama: +1400
Tyrrell Hatton: +1400
Patrick Reed: +1600
Viktor Hovland: +1600
Sung-Jae Im: +2000
Rickie Fowler: +2700
Tony Finau: +2900
Kevin Na: +3100
(Odds Subject to Change)
It was already mentioned that Dechambeau (+650) comes into the event as the overall favorite, and while it's well deserved, it's also not a strong bet, at least at this stage. All it takes is for Bryson to have a slower Thursday on the scorecard and adjustments in price can make the decision to get on or lay off Bryson easier.
And if he runs away with the tournament from the outset? Well, you'll miss the wager here, but the confidence can only grow in firing on Dechambeau later on in the year when maybe the price point is a little juicier. But make no mistake about it, if Dechambeau keeps on this pace he's set with all his Top 10's in recent starts, his name will be in the mix in Detroit on Sunday.
Further past Dechambeau you get the names of Webb Simpson (+1100), Tyrrell Hatton (+1400), Hideki Matsuyama (+1600), Patrick Reed (+1600), and Viktor Hovland (+2000) as the rest of the names priced at 20/1 or better. There are some very good golfers in that list, and at least a few of them should find their way into the hunt on the weekend, but this week's list starts a little further down the odds board to try and connect on bigger longshots when you know almost a third of the entire field will finish in double digits under par.
With so few big names at the top, and -10 or better needed to potentially cash a Top 40 ticket, that's a big player pool to potentially connect on and hopefully one of these three following names can make that happen this week.
Golfers to Watch - PGA: Top Picks & Predictions
Contenders to Bet in the Rocket Mortgage Classic
Scottie Scheffler +4000
You don't get named Korn Ferry Tour Player of the Year like Scheffler did in 2019 without knowing how to go extremely low on the golf course and take advantage of softer courses where birdies are the norm. Scheffler led both points lists last year in earning his full PGA card this year, and he was out to make the most of it early on in the season back in the fall.
Those fields strongly resemble this week's cast in terms of depth, and Scheffler's first eight starts in the season saw him never miss a cut, and have four Top 7 finishes, with a pair of thirds in that mix. Those two 3rd place finishes saw him finish with scores of -18 and -23 overall, so going low shouldn't be an issue at all for him.
Scheffler is also among the best in this field in terms of Strokes Gained: Off-the-tee as he's 10th on Tour in that category this season, and he's hitting nearly 70% of his greens in regulation. If he's able to turn those shots into plenty of makeable birdie opportunities this week, and not have his short game let him down, Scheffler could end up officially adding his name to the growing list of exceptional young talent in the game right now.
Mid-Range Value for the Rocket Mortgage Classic
Rafa Cabrera-Bello +8000
The field may not be the deepest overall, but Cabrera-Bello is the name I settled on in a select group of guys in this range who probably shouldn't have as many of those specific names ahead of them on the odds board that they do. Kevin Kisner (+9000) and Alex Noren (+8000) are the two names I'm referring to there, as all three of them with Cabrera-Bello are guys I'd consider to be better than at least a few names ahead of them with better odds.
But it's the Spaniard I'm going with this week, as he's had two Top 40 finishes in three starts since the return, and statistically he's still trying to find his complete game again. Going extremely low isn't something Cabrera-Bello isn't known for, but he's definitely capable, and in terms of consistency, he's one of the better putters on a week-to-week basis.
With minimal trouble out there and low scores needed, if Cabrera-Bello can continue to improve his iron game, he should be able to outperform this price by quite a bit and hopefully bring a Sunday sweat for the outright title as well.
VegasInsider's Long Shot Pick in the Rocket Mortgage Classic
Wyndham Clark +17500
Clark is the only one of the three selections to play this event last year, and his -14 score was good enough for a T17 finish. Three rounds of 68 had him leave quite a few strokes out there as well a season ago, and while his iron game is still a weak point in his overall game, the price is worth taking on that risk.
Backing Clark is more of a play with the course history angle in mind, and as silly as that sounds with just one year played here, sometimes with young guys trying to stay on Tour, sometimes it's those early positive results at a venue in a career that gets guys to fall in love with certain courses. Last year, Clark had missed five straight cuts before finishing T15 at the Travelers, and it was here in Detroit where he proved that was no fluke with the T17 finish.
Clark went on to grab his best career finish the following with a T5 at the 3M Open, so chances are there are plenty of positive memories for Clark returning back to the Detroit Golf Club fairways. His variance level in his approach game could have him on either end of the scoring spectrum this week. But at a course where Clark actually holds an experience edge over a chunk of the field and has some positive memories from his play here a year ago, I'll back that Clark's scores are on the better end of that spectrum as a high upside long shot this week.
72-Hole Matchup to Take for the Rocket Mortgage Classic
Rafa Cabrera-Bello (-118) over Erik van Rooyen
Cabrera-Bello was discussed in the light of him being a better overall player then at least a few names above him, so it's hard not to put the money where the mouth is so to speak in his head-to-head matchup with van Rooyen, a guy who's listed at +7500 on the outright board.
With the accuracy numbers van Rooyen has at just 52.4% driving accuracy, and 61% greens in regulation, guys that spray the ball like that are going to find what little trouble there is here. There has been a T21 at the Heritage and a missed cut at the Charles Schwab for van Rooyen, so it's not like his recent form can trump those limited season-long numbers either.
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