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PGA Charles Schwab 3 weeks 6 days ago #506345

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Betting news, trends, odds and predictions for from various handicappers and websites for Wednesday 5/22/19
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PGA Charles Schwab 3 weeks 6 days ago #506346

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The PGA Championship is in the rear view mirror, but that doesn’t mean we don’t get a quality field this week. The Charles Schwab Challenge features a number of top players, including Jon Rahm, Justin Rose, Rickie Fowler and Jordan Spieth.

Let’s look at the matchups and golf picks.

Charles Schwab Challenge Matchups - per BetDSI.eu
Justin Rose -120 vs. Jon Rahm
Rickie Fowler -115 vs. Justin Rose
Joel Dahmen -147 vs. Zach Johnson
Billy Horschel -122 vs. Brandt Snedeker
Tyrrell Hatton -145 vs. Chez Reavie
Ryan Palmer -147 vs. Kevin Na
Si Woo Kim -120 vs. Abraham Ancer
Matthew Fitzpatrick -118 vs. Scott Piercy
Jason Kokrak -130 vs. Ian Poulter
Rickie Fowler -120 vs. Jon Rahm
Daniel Berger -135 vs. Sungjae Im
Emiliano Grillo -130 vs. Rory Sabbatini
Kevin Tway -125 vs. C T Pan
Pat Perez -115 vs. Graeme McDowell
Jim Furyk -132 vs. Jhonattan Vegas
Louis Oosthuizen -141 vs. Tony Finau
Jimmy Walker -132 vs. Matt Jones
Bryson DeChambeau -147 vs. Kevin Kisner
Francesco Molinari -119 vs. Xander Schauffele
Kiradech Aphibarnrat -122 vs. Byeong-Hun An
Louis Oosthuizen -152 vs. Paul Casey
Francesco Molinari -115 vs. Jordan Spieth
Paul Casey -118 vs. Tony Finau
Jordan Spieth -132 vs. Xander Schauffele
Charley Hoffman -125 vs. Russell Knox

Charles Schwab Challenge Matchup Picks

Before we get to the picks we’ll consider the course. Colonial Country Club is a par 70 that measures about 7,200 yards. It is considered a pretty short course in terms of the PGA schedule. It is all about accuracy and short iron play on this course. Wind is going to be a factor this week, so don’t expect the low scores we saw in this event a year ago.

Abraham Ancer -110 vs. Si Woo Kim
Ancer played well last week at Bethpage and he has been very consistent off the tee this season on the PGA Tour. He is not known for distance, so he has to find fairways and hit good second shots. That is exactly the recipe for success at Colonial. Kim has been better this season overall, but he is still very inconsistent. We’ll take Ancer in this matchup at the short price.

Emiliano Grillo -130 vs. Rory Sabbatini
Grillo finished third in this tournament a year ago and he has said he really likes this course. He played well last week at the PGA and there is no reason to think he won’t be in the mix this week. He goes against Sabbatini who has been playing better of late, but usually is no threat to contend. We’ll take Grillo at plus money in this matchup.


Jim Furyk -132 vs. Jhonattan Vegas
One player we know who is all about accuracy off the tee is Furyk and he has had a resurgence this season. On courses that don’t require distance off the tee, Furyk can contend. We get him at a decent price in this matchup against Vegas.

Bryson DeChambeau -145 vs. Kevin Kisner
This is an interesting matchup, as some people are down on DeChambeau after what happened last week at the PGA? DeChambeau said he didn’t like Bethpage and then he went out and laid an egg. It was no surprise. He is still having a very good season and this course should suit his precision game. Kisner is also a player that should do well on this course, but he isn’t playing well, with just three top 10 finishes in his last 35 tournaments. We’ll take DeChambeau and lay the price in this matchup.

Francesco Molinari -119 vs. Xander Schauffele
We are big fans of Schauffele but this is not a major and it is not a course that requires distance, so Schaueffele probably won’t contend. Molinari is known for his accuracy and short iron play, so he should do well at Colonial. We’ll take him in this matchup at the short price.
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PGA Charles Schwab 3 weeks 6 days ago #506347

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PGA Tour Betting Preview
Charles Schwab Challenge
Colonial Country Club – Par 70 – 7,209 yards
Fort Worth, TX
Thursday May 23 - Sunday May 26

After the 2nd Major of 2019 saw Brooks Koepka re-establish his dominance in Majors with a wire-to-wire win, the Tour takes a shift down in intensity level for the Charles Schwab Challenge. It's an event that has been around forever, and on the shorter Colonial Country Club course, it's almost accuracy above all else this week.

After dealing with the lengthy monster that is the Par 70 Bethpage Black course last week – guys that aren't bombers off the tee won't be priced out of this week's tournament, as Colonial provides no concerns for shorter hitters. The two Par 5's at this course aren't even a big advantage for the longer hitters, and with most of the Par 4's being between 400 and 450 yards, the winner this week will be someone who's had their short irons dialed in to these smaller greens.

Those smaller greens as targets could be dubbed as a nice little 'warm-up' for what the guys will see at Pebble Beach for the US Open in a few weeks, and that's not where the comparisons for the two courses end. Colonial is also known for some gnarly rough, and with that always dangerous Texas wind being Colonial's best defense, some guys may draw on their experience here this week if they find themselves with a shot at winning on Pebble Beach next month.

Furthermore, outside of Jordan Spieth's phenomenal record here – has finished 32, 2, 1, 2, 14, and 7th here since 2013 – as some local knowledge for him growing up in the area has definitely helped, winning the Colonial is typically reserved for guys who've got a wealth of experience on Tour in general. That speaks to the patience needed to win at a course that's got tight driving locations, and even tighter greens to try and hit, and it's probably why every recent winner here for more than a decade – outside of Spieth – has been 30 or older. Some young bombers like Jon Rahm and Brooks Koepka do have runner-up finishes here the past two years, but some savvy experience within guys isn't something to be overlooked this week.

With that in mind, here are three names to keep an eye out for this week, and oddly enough, all of them have had decent success throughout their careers at this venue, but all three of them missed the cut the last time they were here. I'm expecting that they all bounce back this week in Fort Worth, and could possibly find themselves lifting up this trophy on Sunday evening.

Golfers to Watch

Ian Poulter (+4000) – Poulter hasn't teed it up here since he missed the cut in 2016, but after missing the cut at last week's PGA, ending a run of Top 25's in four of his last six starts, the Englishman Poulter is hoping to find some form for the rest of the year and possibly duplicate the 5th and 8th place finishes he's had here in 2015 and 2019 respectively.

Poulter has not been his usual Top 30th self in Strokes Gained: Approach this year, as his 105th standing in that stat on Tour has him believing there should have been some much better results in his past. But this is a guy that's usually Top 30 in that category each and every year, and when you give him 15+ holes with a short iron in his hand, there is probably no better course to find a groove with those clubs for Poulter than this place.

Everything else, looks great for Poulter to have success here, and while the MC at the PGA Championship looks like an eyesore in his recent results, his short time there was merely a result of a few bad holes and that's it. A shorter course that keeps more long irons in the bag for Poulter is never a bad thing, and if he continues to scramble well - 15th in Strokes Gained: Around the Green – when needed, Poulter could get into the winner's circle for the second consecutive year.

Scott Piercy (+5000) – Piercy is someone who missed the cut here last year, but it was a 7th place finish here in 2017, and teeing it up here seven times since 2009 doesn't hurt the know-how to get around these 18 holes either.

Piercy largely went unnoticed to his T41 at the PGA last weekend, but with finishes of 2nd adn 3rd in his two Tour starts prior to that Major, it's not like his current form isn't something to like. And like Poulter, Piercy's approach metrics aren't particularly near his usual top tier on Tour percentile in 2019, but he's slowly been getting there as his recent results can attest too.

It will be Piercy's accuracy with every club outside of the putter that puts him into contention this week, and whether or not he stays there will be up to the flatstick on the green. Like so many guys on Tour, putting is by far the weakest link in Piercy's game, but his experience reading these greens and even finding success here should minimize those worries relative to other courses we see on Tour.

Should the putter get hot – and it must for whomever wins this week – for Piercy, a +5000 price tag is a nice payday in a field where the class of golfers above him in the field isn't littered with names. A post-Major lull for some of those guys, combined with Piercy keeping his putter relatively hot after those recent Top 5 finishes, and this 40-year old should be in the mix on Sunday.

Zack Johnson (+6600) – Johnson missed the cut here a season ago, but when you think of guys who would excel at a shorter course that's dependent on accuracy, Johnson's name always has to be floating around. He may have missed the cut here last year, but he's also a two-time winner of this event (2010, 2012), and has seven Top 20's here the past 10 years.

When length isn't a concern in the sense that it eliminates shorter hitters from really having a shot, it's then that guys with a Zack Johnson-type skill set tend to thrive. Being a guy that's a past winner here always helps as well, and when his short irons are dialed in, it's just about sinking some putts.

Johnson's biggest concerns in his game are length off the tee and his putting, but the former doesn't mean much at Colonial, and the latter is so finicky for every guy on Tour week-to-week that it's hard to put a tremendous amount of weight into putting numbers. The eye test shows that ZJ is a guy that knows this course, likes this course, can play very well on this course, and a little bit of wind kicking up is something that has never bothered Johnson throughout his career.

This price for a former winner is too good to get ignored, even if Johnson's best days may be slightly behind him.

Charles Schwab Challenge - per Sportsbetting.ag
Justin Rose 10/1
Jon Rahm 12/1
Jordan Spieth 14/1
Rickie Fowler 14/1
Francesco Molinari 16/1
Xander Schauffele 16/1
Paul Casey 25/1
Tony Finau 25/1
Bryson Dechambeau 28/1
Kevin Kisner 33/1
Louis Oosthuizen 33/1
Ian Poulter 40/1
Jason Kokrak 45/1
Chez Reavie 50/1
Emiliano Grillo 50/1
Matthew Fitzpatrick 50/1
Rory Sabbatini 50/1
Scott Piercy 55/1
Billy Horschel 60/1
Brandt Snedeker 60/1
Graeme McDowell 66/1
Joel Dahmen 66/1
Kevin Na 66/1
Tyrrell Hatton 66/1
Zach Johnson 66/1
Pat Perez 70/1
Ryan Palmer 70/1
Si Woo Kim 70/1
Abraham Ancer 75/1
Byeong Hun An 80/1
Charley Hoffman 80/1
Daniel Berger 80/1
Jason Dufner 80/1
Kiradech Aphibarnrat 80/1
Russell Knox 80/1
Jim Furyk 85/1
Matt Jones 85/1
Jhonattan Vegas 90/1
Jimmy Walker 90/1
Kevin Tway 90/1
Sungjae Im 90/1
Branden Grace 100/1
C.T. Pan 100/1
Corey Conners 100/1
Danny Lee 100/1
Kevin Streelman 100/1
Sam Burns 100/1
Seamus Power 100/1
Brian Stuard 110/1
Bud Cauley 110/1
Joaquin Niemann 110/1
Matt Every 110/1
Trey Mullinax 110/1
Bill Haas 125/1
Brian Harman 125/1
J.T. Poston 125/1
Martin Kaymer 125/1
Martin Laird 125/1
Max Homa 125/1
Shawn Stefani 125/1
Vaughn Taylor 125/1
Aaron Baddeley 140/1
Beau Hossler 140/1
Denny Mccarthy 140/1
Kramer Hickok 140/1
Kyoung-Hoon Lee 140/1
Ollie Schniederjans 140/1
Austin Cook 150/1
Cameron Champ 150/1
Doug Ghim 150/1
Michael Thompson 150/1
Nick Taylor 150/1
Nick Watney 150/1
Peter Uihlein 150/1
Scott Stallings 150/1
Talor Gooch 150/1
Adam Schenk 160/1
Andrew Landry 160/1
Patton Kizzire 160/1
Andrew Putnam 170/1
Brian Gay 175/1
Jonas Blixt 175/1
David Toms 180/1
Ben Crane 200/1
Brendan Steele 200/1
Bronson Burgoon 200/1
Carlos Ortiz 200/1
Chesson Hadley 200/1
Mackenzie Hughes 200/1
Peter Malnati 200/1
Ryan Blaum 200/1
Scott Brown 200/1
Wyndham Clark 200/1
Anirban Lahiri 225/1
Ben Silverman 225/1
Chris Stroud 225/1
Nate Lashley 225/1
Ryan Armour 225/1
Adam Long 250/1
Richy Werenski 250/1
Scott Langley 250/1
Brice Garnett 300/1
Dominic Bozzelli 300/1
Ted Potter Jr. 300/1
Boo Weekley 350/1
Whee Kim 350/1
Colt Knost 400/1
Hudson Swafford 400/1
Josh Teater 400/1
Tom Hoge 400/1
J.J. Henry 500/1
Roger Sloan 500/1
Tim Herron 500/1
Michael Kim 600/1
Dru Love 750/1
Kenny Perry 750/1
Mike Weir 750/1
Rod Pampling 750/1
Tyrone Van Aswegen 750/1
Keith Clearwater 1000/1
Tom Purtzer 1000/1
Tucker Wadkins 1000/1
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PGA Charles Schwab 3 weeks 6 days ago #506348

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By Joe Williams

The PGA TOUR moves to the Dallas-Fort Worth area this week for the Charles Schwab Challenge at Colonial Country Club.

PRIME MATCHUPS

Each week we'll take a look at the best round matchups to try and build up a nice bankroll.

Abraham Ancer (-120) vs. Si Woo Kim (-110): Bet the favorite in this head-to-head matchup, as Ancer is the play. He has fared well in the Driving Accuracy Percentage (68.75 percent), Par 4 Scoring Average (3.97) and Putts Per Round (28.63) categories. He made the cut last season, and was headed for a big finish before posting a 3-over 73 on Sunday to tumble down the leaderboard.

Jordan Spieth (+105) vs. Francesco Molinari (-135): The Texas native Spieth is worth a roll of the dice in his home state, especially as a short 'dog. He has made the cut in five consecutive events, including a third-place showing at the PGA Championship last weekend at Bethpage Black, and an impressive 21st-place showing in the first major of the season at Augusta National in the Masters.

Jordan Spieth (-115) vs. Xander Schauffele (-115): Vegas sonsiders this one a coin-flip situation, but again, Spieth is finally looking like he is snapping out of his season-long slumber. Schauffele missed the cut at this even last season, too.

Russell Knox (-125) vs. Charley Hoffman (-105): Hoffman posted a 54th-place finish at the PGA Championship last week, and he is looking for a turnaround at Colonial. It might not come, however, as he has posted a dismal 58.17 percent Driving Accuracy Percentage while ranking 62nd on Tour in Strokes Gained: Putting and 149th in Par 4 Scoring Average. Hoffman doesn't seem to perform very well in key stats necessary for success in the past at this event, so look for Knox to slip by him in a head-to-head matchup.

Last event (PGA Championship): 1-3 (-250)
This season: 12-21-2 (-1140)

OTHER BETS

Top 20 Finish - Louis Oosthuizen (+115): If you're looking for a decent value for Top-20 Finish candidates, the South African is your man. He checks off all of the boxes for success at Colonial, posting a 67.12 percent Driving Accuracy Percentage, while checking in 25th on Tour in Par 4 Scoring Average (3.98).

Top 20 Finish - Abraham Ancer (+260): Based on Ancer's stats, he is a decent Top-20 value. He enters with a lot of confidence after a 16th-place showing at Bethpage Black last week.

Top 20 Finish - Corey Conners (+325): An even stronger value play is Conners, who was a winner at the Valero Texas Open in his most recent showing in the great state of Texas. As long as he can overcome his inconsistencies on the putting surface then Conners might overcome.
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