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PGA Byron Nelson

PGA Byron Nelson 1 month 1 week ago #505538

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Betting news, trends, odds and predictions for from various handicappers and websites for Wednesday 5/8/19
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PGA Byron Nelson 1 month 1 week ago #505539

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PGA Tour Betting Preview
Byron Nelson Championship
Trinity Forest Golf Club – Par 71 – 7, 558 yards

It's the second time this season that I've had to begin a preview by stating it's the week before a Major, and that means this week's field is one that is void of many big names. This week it's the historic Byron Nelson Classic that sees their field take a hit thanks to the new schedule of flipping the PGA up to May, but with the event changing to this new venue just last year, much of the nostalgia for Tour vets to want to show up at this event is gone. Throw in a major championship the following week, and it's an easy skip for most guys. That's not to say there still aren't some recognizable names in the field this week, because after all, we've got Tony Romo teeing it up.

In all seriousness though, we've got Brooks Koepka as the biggest name in the field at the Byron Nelson, as he looks to sharpen his game up before trying to defend his PGA Championship title next week. Koepka (+650) is the heavy favorite to win the Byron Nelson this week at that price, as only Hideki Matsuyama (+1600), and local Dallas boy Jordan Spieth (+1800) are the other golfers priced below +2200 for the week. That +2200 price tag belongs to defending champion Aaron Wise, but names like Henrik Stenson (+2500), Branden Grace (+2800), Marc Leishman (+2800), and Patrick Reed (+2800) are right there as well.

As far as the course goes, we've only had one year of exposure to it on the PGA Tour, as it's a links style course – wide open, undulating fairways, lots of pot bunkers and no trees – that has the makeup of a bombers paradise. If the wind isn't blowing you'll see some very low numbers here – Marc Leishman shot a 61 here last year en route to a 2nd place finish – but if the wind does decide to make an appearance, all bets are off then. Wind (and some sand) is what can make this course tough, but if guys are hitting their spots and there is little Texas wind to speak of, the entire field is going to go low; -23 was the winning score here last season.

Having length with every club in your bag might be the biggest asset a player can bring to Trinity Forest, as there is such little rough to worry about that it's best to just get the ball as far down there as you can and become deadly with whatever short club you've got left in your hand. The Top 10 of last year's event was littered with bombers like Leishman, Wise, Keith Mitchell, Adam Scott and Kevin Tway, and that type of blueprint for success here is probably partly behind someone like Brooks Koepka deciding to play here after skipping the event a year ago.

It may be as simple as looking for guys who “drive for show, and putt for dough” this week, as bombers that can go really low when they get going. So with that in mind, let's get to this week's list of golfers to watch, and if Koepka's price was quite a bit better and not +650 for the event, he'd probably headline the list.

Odds per - Sportsbetting.ag

Golfers to Watch

Keith Mitchell (+3300) – Mitchell is a guy who's really found some consistency to his game as he's now gone through a full loop (year) on Tour. He's always been a guy that bombs it off the tee and can go very low when he gets streaky hot with his shorter clubs, but it wasn't until he found himself in contention consistently during the swing season this past fall that he was able to finally get over that hump. Mitchell earned his first PGA Tour win of his career a little later on in the first week of March, and it came with a runner-up finish for this week's favorite Brooks Koepka as well.

Mitchell has all the skills to put up a great week at Trinity Forest, as long as he can make some putts. He's 25th in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-green, 11th off the tee in that category, and finished T3 here last year thanks to a final round 63 that shot him up the leaderboard – another glimpse of what he could be with a great single round. Being a guy in the field that's already seen this track in Tour play should be somewhat of an advantage, and with little concern about spraying it off the tee, as long as Mitchell can be consistent and go station to station (fairway to green), another Top 10 finish here at worst should be in the cards.

Trey Mullinax (+6600) – Mullinax did not play here a year ago, but like Mitchell, he's a young guy who's always been known as a bomber searching for overall consistency in his game. He's got the same weaknesses as Mitchell in terms of putting and scrambling being the weak link, but with his distance off the tee (307.3 yards/average), he shouldn't have to worry about scrambling too much if he's always going to have a 8 iron to wedge in his hands for the second shot.

Finding overall consistency in his complete game may still be a ways away for Mullinax, but Trinity Forest is a bombers paradise as I said, and maybe it takes a favorable course setup to his game to kickstart his overall improvement as a golfer and help get the tap started into his potential. This guy is probably going to win one sooner rather than later on Tour, and with this course likely fitting his skill set to a T, and this price, I can't pass him up this week.

Kevin Tway (+8000) – Tway was T9 here a season ago, as he's another guy that has his eyes light up when he sees a place like this where you can just let it rip off the tee and not worry too much about the consequences.

It was a sub-par third round of 70 that kept him from seriously competing for the lead last year, and like Mitchell's Top 10 here a season ago, there is plenty of positives Tway can draw on from that experience. Now, he is the third of three guys on this list that don't exactly grade out well with the putter, but that's so volatile that you can't put too much stock into those numbers.

Tway is a much better scrambler than Mitchell or Mullinax, and his 55.4% accuracy rate off the tee (183rd) is about as least of a concern here as it will be at any event all year long. That plays right in the big man's hands if he can get everything clicking at once. His first career win came during the swing season last fall (Safeway Open) so there is no need to worry about his ability to close it out at this price either.

Byron Nelson Championship - per Sportsbetting.ag
Brooks Koepka 13/2
Hideki Matsuyama 16/1
Jordan Spieth 18/1
Aaron Wise 22/1
Henrik Stenson 25/1
Branden Grace 28/1
Marc Leishman 28/1
Patrick Reed 28/1
Keith Mitchell 33/1
Charles Howell 40/1
Kevin Na 40/1
Rory Sabbatini 40/1
Ryan Moore 40/1
Sung-Jae Im 40/1
Lucas Bjerregaard 50/1
Rafael Cabrera Bello 50/1
Ryan Palmer 50/1
Scott Piercy 50/1
Thomas Pieters 50/1
Thorbjorn Olesen 50/1
Abraham Ancer 66/1
Alex Noren 66/1
Daniel Berger 66/1
Justin Harding 66/1
Pat Perez 66/1
Russell Knox 66/1
Scottie Scheffler 66/1
Seamus Power 66/1
Brian Stuard 80/1
C T Pan 80/1
J J Spaun 80/1
Jimmy Walker 80/1
Kevin Tway 80/1
Kyoung-Hoon Lee 80/1
Ollie Schniederjans 80/1
Trey Mullinax 80/1
Aaron Baddeley 100/1
Andrew Landry 100/1
Brian Gay 100/1
Brian Harman 100/1
Bud Cauley 100/1
Dylan Frittelli 100/1
J T Poston 100/1
Kiradech Aphibarnrat 100/1
Matt Jones 100/1
Michael Thompson 100/1
Nick Watney 100/1
Sam Burns 100/1
Adam Schenk 125/1
Austin Cook 125/1
Beau Hossler 125/1
Denny McCarthy 125/1
Luke Donald 125/1
Martin Laird 125/1
Nick Taylor 125/1
Peter Malnati 125/1
Russell Henley 125/1
Scott Stallings 125/1
Sung-Hoon Kang 125/1
Wyndham Clark 125/1
Tony Romo 1000/1
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PGA Byron Nelson 1 month 1 week ago #505540

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By Joe Williams

The PGA TOUR rolls into the AT&T Byron Nelson at Trinity Forest Golf Club in Dallas, Texas. It's the second straight season the pros peg it at Trinity Forest GC, five miles outside of Dallas. The links-style course designed by Ben Crenshaw and Bill Coore is a Par 71 setup at 7,550 yards. The event was previously played at TPC Four Seasons Resort and Club in nearby Irving, Tex.

PRIME MATCHUPS

Each week we'll take a look at the best round matchups to try and build up a nice bankroll.

Kevin Tway (+110) vs. Dylan Frittelli (-140): Tway is the underdog in this battle, but his solid work in the Driving Distance category should serve him well at the Par 71, 7,550-yard setup at Trinity Forest. He was ninth in this event last season, and he seems to be on the right track after a 36th at the Masters and a 13th-place finish in the partner event at the Zurich Classic of New Orleans. The South African Frittelli is not long off the tee, not terribly accurate and he ranks 102nd in Greens In Regulation (GIR), while only posting mediocre numbers on Par 4 holes. He'll underachieve, letting Tway take him head-to-head.

Hideki Matsuyama (-105) vs. Brooks Koepka (-125): Matsuyama has quietly pieced it all together this season, making the cut in each of his 12 events this season, including three top-10 showings. Matsuyama played at Trinity Forest last season, and he had a strong tournament, finishing 16th. He fired an 8-under 63 in the second round, and ended up 12-under 272 for the weekend. He is playing with a lot of confidence, and his high ranks in Driving Distance (17th), GIR (34th), Scoring Average (18th) and Par 4 Scoring Average (44th) will serve him well against Koepka.

Ryan Palmer (-120) vs. Alexander Noren (-110): Palmer played his college golf at Texas A&M, so you can expect he'll be playing with a little extra giddy-up in his step in front of plenty of friends, family and fans deep in the heart of Texas. He is coming in with a lot of confidence, too, capturing the title with Jon Rahm in the partner event at the Zurich Classic of New Orleans. Noren is downright awful in GIR and Par 4 Scoring Average, two areas which will cause him to tumble down the leaderboard.

Sungjae Im (-135) vs. Kevin Na (+105): Im is humming along nicely in the Ball Striking (25th), GIR (44th) and Par 4 Scoring (3.98) categories, three areas of importance for success at Trinity Forest. The key to Im's game is his short game and work on the putting green. If those two areas are at least adequate, he could be in for quite a solid weekend. As far as Na, he is short off the tee, not terribly accurate and his GIR is rough. He also ranks 165th in Par 4 Scoring Average, so he checks off none of the boxes for success at the Nelson.

* It was a rough week at the Wells Fargo Championship, as I took it on the chin for a second straight week after a nice showing at the Masters. Look for a nice bounce-back this week.

Last event (Wells Fargo): 0-4 (-480)
This season: 11-18-2 (-890)

OTHER BETS

Top 20 Finish - Sungjae Im (+145): Im is playing with a lot of confidence, and not only do I like him to take care of Na in the head-to-head matchup (above), a Top 20 Finish should easily be within his grasp.

Top 20 Finish - Hideki Matsuyama (-170): Matsuyama is a perfect 12-for-12 this season making cuts, and he was 16th at this event last season when he posted a 12-under 272. He burned up the course with an 8-under 63 in the second, too.

Top 20 Finish - Ryan Moore (+160): Moore checks off all of the boxes for success at Trinity Forest. He ranks fifth on Tour at Driving Accuracy Percentage, he is 71st in GIR, a decent scrambler and a so-so putter. He was third in his most recent showing in the Lone Star State at the Valero Texas Open. Look for at least a Top 20, making him a nice value at this price.

Top 10 Finish - Hideki Matsuyama (+145): Matsuyama is a good bet at this price level, as he has a really good chance to win this tournament, too. A small-unit bet on Matsuyama to win (+1600) isn't a bad wager, either.

Last week: 1-2 (+225)
This season: 13-20 (-213)
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