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Kentucky Derby Premium Service Plays

Kentucky Derby Premium Service Plays 1 month 2 weeks ago #505280

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Saturday 5/4/19 thread for free handicapping service plays and expert predictions for MLB, NHL & NBA games.
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Kentucky Derby Premium Service Plays 1 month 2 weeks ago #505281

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Paul Leiner

Kentucky Derby $10 W/P/S Maximum Security

$4 exacta box- Maximum Security/Improbable/Roadster/Game Winner
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Game winner Win Place & Show net same amount suggests
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Mike Missanelli

Roadster & win win win
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Kentucky Derby Premium Service Plays 1 month 2 weeks ago #505282

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Jody Demling
EXOTICS UPDATED MAY 2 AFTER OMAHA BEACH SCRATCH
Here's what I said prior to the scratch: "I picked Omaha Beach but was back and forth in the final week or so between the favorite and Improbable. It wouldn't surprise me at all if either of those two horses or Game Winner or Tacitus was wearing the roses on Saturday night."

So, why change things....I'll pick Tacitus but play the three:

Here's a look at a ticket I believe will not only cover you but has a chance to give you a solid return on your investment.

Let's play a $5 exacta box with the top four in the race. And then take Tacitus and play him in a $1 bet over the rest of the horses in the field.

$5 exacta box 5,8,16 ($30)

$1 exacta 8 over ALL ($19)

The trifecta will be a tough on to snare but we'll try two angles.

The first - and likely the wager I will make - its using the top three and then 10 horses.

$0.50 trifecta 5,8,16 with 5,8,16 with 1,3,5,6,7,8,13,14,16,17 ($24)

The second has Tacitus singled.

$0.50 trifecta 8 with 1,3,5,6,7,8,13,14,16,17 with 1,3,5,6,7,8,13,14,16,17 ($36)

The superfecta is a minimum of $1 on Derby Day, so you can spend a ton of money trying to hit it. The good thing is it will likely pay a ton....but hopefully it will pay off.

$1 superfecta 5,8,16 with 5,8,16 with 1,5,8,14,16,17 with 1,3,5,8,14,16,17 ($96)

DERBY-OAKS DOUBLE
The Oaks-Derby Double is my favorite wager at Churchill Downs this weekend.

And for good reason.

I have used different combinations to win the wager nine of the past 10 years. It's a wager that takes place in two races on consecutive days - the Kentucky Oaks on Friday and the Kentucky Derby on Saturday at Churchill.

It's a wager that more often than not has proven to be a very good play for a return. Since the wager started in 1999, the payout has been under $51 just four times. On the flip side, the payout has been more than $500 on six occasions.

So, let's try and hit a good one.

And remember, if you hit the Oaks winner then you will be able to see the will-pays on Friday night and it won't change.

Here we go:

I was ready to do a $5 bet with Omaha Beach and all in the Oaks, but he's scratched. I'm not as confident in Tacitus or Improbable but let's wheel them both for $2.

$2 Oaks-Derby double ALL (Oaks) with 5,8 (Derby) total ($56)

I still want to make sure I cover myself on the Derby side, so I will use my other top picks up with the top few in the Oaks

$1 Oaks-Derby double 1,3,4,7 (Oaks) with 1,3,14,15,16,17 (Derby) total ($30)

I really like Bellafina in the Oaks, so I will use her on top with all

$1 Oaks-Derby double 4 (Oaks) with ALL (Derby) - total ($20)

And I will use my second pick - Jaywalk - and long shot - Lady Apple - with my other top picks in the Derby

$1 Oaks-Derby double 3,7 (Oaks) with 1,3,5,8,14,15,16,17 (Derby) - total ($16)

The wagers here would total - $122 - which is more than I have ever wager on this bet - but would likely give us a good return.
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Kentucky Derby Premium Service Plays 1 month 2 weeks ago #505284

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Billy Coleman

3 Star Game Winner
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Five horses I like, in projected order of finish:

(8) Tacitus (5-1) -- He got a good draw for his running style, he'll be coming off the pace, and (jockey) Jose Ortiz will be able to get him into position. I like his odds here. This is the horse that (trainer) Bill Mott says the longer he goes, the better he does. In the Wood Memorial he got slammed out of the gate, almost went to his knees, still won easily and galloped out great. He's my No. 1 horse.

(5) Improbable (5-1) -- Everything is breaking Improbable's way. He drew Post 5, which is a great spot for him. He's in a perfect position. I like this horse a lot. He's working great. He shouldn't be bothered by the post. He's the only Bob Baffert horse who drew well.

(13) Code of Honor (12-1) -- Trainer Shug McGaughey's horse, he ran third closing at the Florida Derby. But the way that race was run, he had no chance coming off the pace. There's enough pace in the Derby that it will benefit him. He comes from the back of the pack, but he drew well and he has good odds. He's going to have to get through horses but I think he comes through. Shug has won this race before, he knows how to get a horse ready, and he'll be well-rested.

(16) Game Winner (6-1) -- He got a terrible draw, No. 16, right next to Roadster, but losing Omaha Beach makes him the favorite. He has a tendency to drift out, so an outside post is no good for him. He's got too much pace, and stalkers on the inside. He's going to have a difficult time from out there, but is a very talented horse and still worth a spot in some of your bets.

(3) By My Standards (15-1) -- He's getting a lot of talk because he's training so well. He won the Louisiana Derby, and he got the No. 3 post is a good position for him. He and Improbable will probably be running together.

Three horses to fade:

(17) Roadster (9-1) -- He's going to have a difficult time getting into position from out there. That's not very good, he could get into all kinds of trouble for his running style. He's got to get into position. Improbable is inside of him, the other big stalker. He's right next to Game Winner -- they have similar styles, they could hook up behind the pace and both have trouble.

(7) Maximum Security (9-2) -- He got an easy trip in the Florida Derby, ran slow fractions and nobody challenged him. I don't think he'll keep up here.

(6) Vekoma (22-1) -- He and Maximum Security are going to be next to each other, two of the speed horses. I think he needs to have the lead, and don't think he's necessarily going to have it in the Derby.

EXOTICS

Exacta box 5,8,13

Exacta box 5,8,16

Exacta box 3 with 5,8,13,16

Superfecta box 5,8,13,16
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Last Edit: 1 month 2 weeks ago by Shazman.
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Kentucky Derby Premium Service Plays 1 month 2 weeks ago #505293

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Dick Jerardi
7,3,5,17
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the derby: 7-8-5
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Marco D’Angelo Derby Picks

My approach to the Kentucky Derby is to attack the Exacta and Trifecta. Good Luck today all of my exacta and Trifecta bets will have a total investment of $391. Two years ago we bet $390 and returned $9069 lets hope for another big score this year. I want to Thank everyone who has followed along with me. This is exactly how I am betting today.


Trifecta Wagers Total Bets = $266


$1 Trifecta 5-8-13-14-16 over 5-8-13-14-16-17 over 3-5-7-8-13-14-16-17 = $150*** (corrected amount)

$1 Trifecta 5-16 over 5-8-13-14-16-17 over 5-8-13-14-16-17 = $40

$.50 Trifecta 5-8-13-14-16-17 over 5-16 over 5-8-13-14-16-17 = $20

$1 Trifecta 5 over 8-13-14-16-17 over 8-13-14-16-17 = $20 (corrected amount)$1 Trifecta 8-13-14-16-17 over 5 over 8-13-14-16-17 = $20 (corrected amount)

$1 Trifecta 5 over 16 over 2-3-6-7-8-13-14-17 = $8

$1 Trifecta 5 over 2-3-6-7-8-13-14-17 over 16 = $8


Exacta Wagers Total Bets = $125


$1 Exacta Box 5-8-13-14-16-17 = $30

$2 Exacta Box 5-8-13-14-16 = $40

$5 Exacta Key 5 over 8-13-14-16-17 = $25

$2 Exacta Key 8-13-14-16-17 over 5 = $10

$3 Exacta Key 16 over 5-8-13-14-17 = $15

$1 Exacta Key 5-8-13-14-17 over 16 = $5


I will have a Win-Place-Show Bet on #5 Improbable Example $15 across = $45

1 will also have a smaller Win-Place-Show Bet on Long shot #14 Win Win Win Example $5 across = $15
On the WPS bets those were examples so what ever you bet on Improbable bet 1/3 as much on Win Win Win.
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Kentucky Derby Premium Service Plays 1 month 2 weeks ago #505301

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E PONIES Twelfth Race
Kentucky Derby
Three year olds
One and one quarter miles on dirt

War of Will – His first win was at Churchill over a sloppy track. Just saying. At 20:1, definitely looks like a potential sleeper. Since switching to dirt he has three wins in four starts. The Louisiana Derby (G1) wants to be a throw-out for a lot of horses today, including War of Will. Clearly did not like the going in the Louisiana Derby (G2) but up to that point looked really strong and able to handle the distance. Worth a close look and possibly a speculative wager.
Tax – Solid second place effort in the Wood Memorial (G2). Got up for second in a large field. Has never missed the board. Will stalk.
By My Standards – Took him four tries to break his maiden, against relatively weak MdSpWt company at FG. Looks like an opportunistic ride and win in the Louisiana Derby (G2). Seems to always run his race. Can come from further back.
Gray Magician – Qualified on the merits of his second place effort in the UAE Derby but other than that looks to be a bit outclassed.
Improbable – Always heavily bet, and never worse than second in five lifetime starts. Second place over a sloppy track in the Arkansas Derby (G1). Very capable horse but not a clear must-bet horse. Has a win over this track.
Vekoma – Apparently winning the Blue Grass Stakes (G2) as the odds-on favorite doesn’t count for much anymore, because Vekoma gets just 20:1 shot of winning on the morning line. He drew away impressively in the Blue Grass. Lightly raced but has done nothing wrong in four starts. Should go off at lower odds than 20:1 but still an overlay at anything above 12:1.
Maximum Security – Cheaply bred but unbeaten in four lifetime starts. Got here by way of a fairly cheap path, up to the Florida Derby. Prior to that G1 win had been in nothing better than open claiming company. He did win the last open claiming race by 18 easy lengths. He likes to run on the lead and that will be his tactic today. He is likely a notch cheaper than some of the favorites, but the off track gives him some help.
Tacitus – Just four lifetime starts but the last two of them were wins in Derby prep races (Tampa Bay Derby (G2) and Wood Memorial (G2)). Great closing kick, and bred for the distance (Tapit). Historically, Tapit horses have been somewhat snake-bit in the Derby but his dossier says he belongs here today and certainly could win.
Plus Que Parfait – Impressive win in the UAE Derby but prior to that ran 13thin the Risen Star (G2) in company with some of these. Hard to explain the big step up in the UAE Derby but hard to put much confidence in him today.
Cutting Humor – Held on to a diminishing lead in the Sunland Derby (G3) as the second choice. Prior to that a seventh place finish in the Southwest (G3). This would be a massive step up today to repeat that effort.
Haikal – Was somewhat overlooked in the Gotham (G3) and raced greenly in that one. Still got up for the win. Followed up that respectable effort with a third place finish in the Wood Memorial (G2). Has never seen a sloppy track. Loves to close late and has handled trouble well in the past. Could be a sleeper at 30:1.
Omaha Beach – is scratched due to illness. I am pretty sure I was not going to recommend a bet on him anyway. Regardless, what was already a wide-open race is not even wider.
Code of Honor – Surprised a lot of people in the Fountain of Youth (G2) and then backed up that win with a third place effort in the Florida Derby (G1). Solid closing style. Never seen sloppy track.
Win Win Win – Always does his best running late. Should love the added distance. Assume the pace will put him towards the back of the pack early, so he will have more horses to pass than he is used to.
Master Fencer – Two wins and two seconds in six lifetime starts in Japan. Not much to go on, in terms of racing form information. And others in here have better records for finishing in the money.
Game Winner – With the scratch of Omaha Beach, Game Winner likely becomes your favorite. Won over this track in the BC Juvenile (G1) last year as the even money favorite. Has done nothing wrong since then, with two solid second place efforts in the Rebel (G2) and Santa Anita Derby (G1). Was four wide in both of those, but still finished well. Good stalking style. Lots to like but he is far from a lock.
Roadster – Another with just four lifetime starts. Lots to like in those four starts, but also some questions. Has never faced horses outside of California. Looks like he will try to stalk as he did in most of his races. Last time out he got a neck in front of Game Winner, who may be the favorite today. That was more than just an opportunistic ride. He took care of business.
Long Range Toddy – Modest success as lesser stakes company at Oaklawn and Retama before jumping up and winning the Rebel (G2) at Oaklawn. Came back down to ground in the Arkansas Derby (G1). Looks to be better than his morning line odds, but he is used to that. Four wins in eight starts and has never better than 6:1 in any of those.
Spinoff – Stalker stretched out to nine furlongs in the Louisiana Derby (G2) and that led to his defeat, giving it up in the stretch. Looks to be a bit outclassed today.
Country House – Arguably the best closer in the field. Has just the one maiden win, but a closing second in the Risen Star (G2) and a closing third in the Arkansas Derby (G3) got his ticket punched today. If the pace is hot, his chances go up.
Bodexpress – Held on impressively in the Florida Derby (G1) to finish behind just Maximum Security at 70:1 odds. Nothing but a maiden win before that. Hard to make sense of that other than to question the strength of the Florida Derby field.



There is not a ton of early speed in this one, but Maximum Security likes to be on or near the lead, and has one win over an off track (muddy). He should factor in the pace. Code of Honor has a wire to wire win but has not raced forwardly since then. Long Range Toddy and Spinoff both appear to be able to get up and go. Either of those two could mix things up on the front for a while. All things considered, I would expect Maximum Security to set the pace and try to clear the field. From the seven post he should be able to get over to the rail fairly quickly, certainly before the first turn. From a pace perspective, the race looks good for him now that Omaha Beach is out. I expect him to set a pace fast enough to establish a three-length lead between the front pack and the first horse in the stalker pack. He won’t tear up the track but he won’t have any mud on him prior to the top of the stretch.

Of the stalking types, Tax, Improbable, Vekoma, and Roadster look the most like they will try to stay within five lengths of the pace setter if they can. Improbable trailed Omaha Beach throughout the Arkansas Derby over a sloppy track and still stayed strong to the end. Game Winner has stalked well but just missed in two straight. Prior to that, he got to the front in the stretch in three straight. He will enjoy the extra distance today and should close well late. Roadster has also never given up ground late, and is bred to run all day. He will also have no trouble with the distance. It may be hard to make up ground late in this one so all of these may try to stay closer to the front than usual.

Tacitus, Code of Honor, Win Win Win, Game Winner and Country House will be more likely to concede the lead and just run their race from wherever the pace lands them. Game Winner has never passed more than six horses on the way to win. Win Win Win passed eleven horses to finish second in the Arkansas Derby. And Country House went from twelfth to second in the Risen Star. Coming from further back may be a challenge today so watch the undercard to see how the track is playing and adjust accordingly. The Derby typically allows for at least one deep closing type to hit the board at long odds.

With the scratch of Omaha Beach (a soft favorite) Game Winner will likely inherit the favorite’s spot, but he is hardly a lock. His claim to fame is primarily the win in the Juvenile a year ago over this track. He was a heavy favorite that day and lived up to expectations. Just two seconds since then but both were perfectly acceptable efforts, even if losses at short odds. Neither of those losses suggested he didn’t want the distance or has regressed. If he gets a good ride, he is a strong contender. Similarly, Improbable comes in off of two straight seconds, but neither is a poor effort. Improbable fought valiantly all the way to the wire in the Arkansas Derby. It looked to me that both Improbable and Omaha Beach ran the best races of their lives that day. Prior to that race, I would have been skeptical of Improbable running that fast for nine furlongs. Roadster will get plenty of action at the windows because of his nice win in the Santa Anita Derby last time out. That field was disturbingly small, but he did beat Game Winner that day, taking advantage of a solid pace and the fact that Game Winner chose to engage the pace setter too soon. Both ran a solid race that day.

Overall, this race is truly wide open. The favorite may go off as high as 5:1 so if you like a horse, you should get good odds. The trifecta and superfecta should both pay over $1000, so it is a good race to take a poke at some value.

For value, consider Tacitus. Although he is lightly raced, so are some others but he has raced over three different tracks in four races, comes in off two straight G2 wins and is 8:1 on the morning line. The Wood Memorial sent all three that hit the board on to the Derby, so the field was respectable. His running style could keep him close.

For even more value, consider War of Will and Long Range Toddy. War of Will is a tale of two horses. He started his career on turf, and finished a respectable fifth in the BC Juvenile Turf (G1). Then he switched to dirt to win three straight, including the LeComte (G3) and the Risen Star (G2) both at Fair Grounds. Then he laid an egg in the Louisiana Derby at short odds. In that one he faced a ton of traffic trouble and seemed to throw in the towel after a few attempts to get clear. The Derby will be even worse for traffic but if he gets a better trip somehow, I think he could be decent. He loved the sloppy track here in November, and drew clear by five lengths over solid maiden company. Long Range Toddy has closed nicely in all of his recent efforts except his most recent race in the Arkansas Derby. Prior to that he rallied to run down Improbable in the Rebel. The Arkansas Derby looks like a toss-out for me for many reasons so I’m inclined to give Long Range Toddy a pass on that dull effort. At 30:1 he looks interesting and it is likely his odds will stay inflated.

Best Bet to Win: Game Winner
Best Value to Win: Maximum Security
Live Long Shot: Long Range Toddy
Dad’s Value Play: Improbable

Exacta Bet: Box 1,5,7,16,18
Trifecta Bet: Box 5,7,16,18
10c Superfecta Box: 1,5,7,16,18
Pick 3 Bet: Use 7, 16, 18
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