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The Masters Betting News, Match-Ups and Trends

The Masters Betting News, Match-Ups and Trends 1 month 1 week ago #503774

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Betting news, trends, odds and predictions from various handicappers and websites for Tuesday 4/9/19
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The Masters Betting News, Match-Ups and Trends 1 month 1 week ago #503775

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By Dan Daly


The azaleas are in full bloom, JD is set up in the Hooter’s parking lot on Washington Ave., and the most beautiful 365 acres on the planet are on full display this week. We return to the place where idiots screaming MASHED POTATOES after every shot are replaced with Patrons, cell phones must be checked at the door, pimento cheese sandwiches are a delicacy and of course with the help of their sponsors, Augusta National and CBS will continue to bring us 56 minutes of every hour of golf coverage. In other words, Hello Friends, and welcome to the greatest week of the calendar year.

So what’s on tap for 2019?

Well, last year was the most hyped-up Masters I can remember in a very long time (if not ever) and of course like most things in that scenario it was a monumental let down…unless your last name is Reed…actually even half of them were pissed off too. So the fact that this year’s Masters has gone very under the radar thus far makes me believe we are in for a very special week. All the names are the same as last year but I think this time they deliver for one of the most epic Masters in years.

With a few exceptions I think you will get an incredibly stacked leaderboard come Saturday night and Sunday will either be “one for the ages” or a complete and total letdown. Here’s hoping for the former.

I will break down the players to avoid and more importantly the players to ride this week.

(As always, odds are at the time this was written and will probably change throughout the week)

The biggest names to avoid or short this week:

Patrick Reed 40/1 – Let’s start with the defending champ, because let’s face it, Patrick Reed will be putting on the Green Jacket Sunday afternoon, it will just be on someone else. When your swing sucks so bad that your wife is secretly calling golf swing instructors behind your back you know it’s bad. Although I guess that’s better than what Lucas Glover’s wife would have done to him by now. How he went from Masters Champion to not recording a Top-10 of any kind this calendar year is beyond me, but it couldn’t have happened to a nicer guy. Karma’s a bitch Mr. and Mrs. Reed.

Sergio Garcia 45/1 – While he does have the Major monkey off his back, and at Augusta no less, there is no way this guy goes from throwing a 5-year-old temper tantrum at ACC to winning, or even contending, at Augusta in less than two weeks. Just not happening. He has a better chance of making another 13 on a hole this year than he does of winning. The only real question is how big of a sense of humor do the jackets at ANGC have to pair him with Kuchar the first two days? I mean unless you think that video they posted together the following day was sincere…in which case I have some Ocean Front Property in Arizona I’d like to sell you.

Bubba Watson 35/1 – Let’s just get all the terrible people out of the way early. I will admit, a two time champion who finished 5th last year at 35-to-1 odds in theory seems like a great value…but only in theory. The fact of the matter is that in 10 starts at Augusta he has finished 20th or worst seven of the 10 times. I’m going with percentages here and think it’s much more likely that he finishes worse than 20th.

Phil Mickelson 30/1 – Phil’s last three finishes at Augusta, 36th, 22nd, MC. The magic he once had around this place has been missing for a few years now. Can he get it back? Of course. Will he get it back this week? Very unlikely. Couple his recent skid at Augusta with the fact that he hasn’t finished higher than 37th since his Pebble win two and a half months ago and things don’t look great for the three time winner here this week. But hey, apparently if you get drunk at a wedding and tell FIGJAM how much he sucks he will give you a $100 bill and tell you to go f**k yourself. He did win 90,000 of them. So there’s that.

Jason Day 30/1 – He could win or take his family to an Atlanta Braves game on Friday afternoon because he had to WD. I honestly don’t have the slightest clue but I don’t bet on people that spend more time in a doctor’s office than the doctors themselves.

Louis Oosthuizen 40/1 – The perception is that Louis plays Augusta really well. The reality is that outside of his playoff loss to Bubba Watson way back in 2012 the guy doesn’t have a single other top-10. That trend continues in 2019.

Kevin Kisner 80/1 – Until the Masters becomes a match play tournament or allows players to ride in carts with an 18-pack in the cooler I’ll have to pass. But hey, if the latter ever happens I will definitely pay $29.99 for that pay-per-view round.

Tony Finau 30/1 – This dude basically broke his ankle on Wednesday last year and finished tied for 10th. Still one of the most amazing things I’ve ever seen in a golf tournament. Even with two healthy ankles this year I just don’t see how someone in their sophomore Masters who hasn’t recorded a single top-10 in any tournament this year suddenly plays well this week. His story on Feherty was incredible, but this doesn’t have the feel good Hallmark movie of the week ending.

Guys on the outside looking in:

Brooks Koepka 14/1 – This guy is like Angel Cabrera on steroids. He simply doesn’t care about non-majors. He can say otherwise but it’s really just that simple. Look, the guy has won three of his last six starts in a major. That’s Jack and Tiger good. My only issue with Koepka this week is that the Masters is the one Major he has yet to record a Top-10. I’m sure that will change at some point, maybe even this year, but until he proves he can play Augusta as well as the other three majors I’m staying away from him this week.

Rickie Fowler 16/1 – I’m sure Rickie will hang around for a while but inevitably he will fade over the weekend. Rickie’s lone win this year was a gift from the gods. I mean this guy tried everything in his power to go full Rickie on the last day and for reasons I still can’t figure out was somehow still able to win. If he gets into contention on the weekend it will happen again…it always does, only this time he will get lapped by the best in the world. I have no doubt Rickie will be at the Green jacket ceremony it will just be once again in the role he always plays…supportive friend.

Bryson DeChambeau 16/1 – A guy that has played eight professional rounds here and yet to break 70 in any of them with a 38th and 21st place finish is only 16/1?!?!? Ummm, hard pass. Yes, he won five times between June 2018 and February 2019 and looked like an evil genius but reality called and Bryson answered. Since his last win in February he has fallen back to earth without a top-10 in his last five starts. That trend will continue this week.

Francesco Molinari 20/1 – With a win at Bay Hill, an impressive showing at The Match Play tournament and a Major under his belt in the last year he certainly has the pedigree to win this week, but his record at Augusta, quite frankly, sucks. He has one sub-70 round in 24 tries and hasn’t ever placed better than 20th. I think a top-20 is well within reason but I’m afraid that’s the ceiling this week for the Ryder Cup hero.

Justin Thomas 16/1 – I love me some JT (both the singer and the golfer actually), so leaving him out of the top-10 was a tough call this week. His record at the Masters isn’t that great, which is surprising for someone with his level of iron play, but he has slowly shown improvement at Augusta (39th, 22nd and 17th last year). I think that trend continues this week even though his recent play hasn’t been that great and he manages to finish somewhere between 11th and 17th. JT will figure this course out sooner than later and will probably own a green jacket before it’s all said and done, I just think he needs another year or two.

Really Dark horse

Ian Poulter 100/1 – Do I think Poulter will or even can win this week? Probably not, but if you are the kind of person that only likes really big paydays then I would say Poulter is your best bet at 100/1. He has made the cut in 12 of his 13 trips to Augusta including a few late weekend tee times and three top-10’s. Throw in a stretch recently where he had four straight top-6 finishes and there are much worse ways to blow your money than Poulter at 100/1.

Dark horse

Hideki Matsuyama 40/1 – It’s been almost two years since Matsuyama has won. He’s too good of a player to not break through sooner than later. The issue with Matsuyama has and continues to be his putting. Obviously that is a big issue, but the rest of his game lately has been on point. He is second on tour this year in strokes gained approach to the green and tee to green. If, and that is a very big IF, he can somehow figure out a way to putt well for four days it wouldn’t surprise me at all to see him win this week. Putting issues aside I think his ball striking alone will cement him a spot in the top-10 at week’s end.

Rest of the Top 10

Jordan Spieth 20/1 – Jordan in the single biggest wildcard this week, and it isn’t even close. The guy could win, shoot a pair of 80’s or finish somewhere in-between and none of those would surprise me. Here’s what I know. In 2017 Spieth won three times, including the British Open, and had nine other top-10’s to go with it. In December 2017 Jordan Spieth got engaged. In 2018 he had as many missed cuts as top-10’s (5 each). Thus far in 2019 he has three miss cuts and ONE top-25. Does one have to do with the other? I don’t have the first clue, but either way his golf game since Christmas of 2017 has been abysmal. With that said there is something about Jordan and Augusta. The dude has finished second, first, second, 11th and third so far with a scoring average of 70.05 which is the best in this field. Oh, and he has been in first place after nine of his 20 competitive rounds played. That’s pretty good I think? The driver is the entire key to Spieth contending this week. Augusta is incredibly forgiving off the tee so he just needs to keep it on the planet as he plays that course better than anyone from the second shot in. That was never more evident than last year on Sunday's 18th when basically a terrible tee shot ruined his otherwise perfect round. Personally I think he gets real comfortable this week and plays well but the driver is just too much to overcome. He adds a fourth top-10 at Augusta this week but not a fourth major.

Matt Kuchar 40/1 – This guy went from being a fan favorite to public enemy #1 faster than Kevin Na gets a two-footer out of the hole. Do I think he can win this week? No. But I love taking Kuchar in a top-10 bet this week. The guy practically invented the term backdoor top-10. He has four top-10’s in his last seven starts at Augusta and ranks in the top-10 in strokes gained approach on tour this year which I think is a key stat when playing at Augusta.

Tiger Woods 12/1 – He’s going to contend this week, that much I’m sure of. How seriously? Well, that is the million dollar question. Even though he hasn’t won here in 14 years (which is mind blowing by the way) he also has six top-6 finishes in his last nine starts. The guy didn’t win here four times by accident, he knows his way around this course arguably better than anyone on the planet. Combine his love and knowledge of the course with recent form and you would be a fool to think he isn’t somehow in the mix this week, but he has also showed signs of age or rust or whatever you want to call it recently with mistakes that we just aren’t used to seeing him make back in the day. I’m afraid that’s the case again this week and the little things that he used to do so well are going to be the thing that keeps him from winning this time around.

Paul Casey 30/1 – I have taken Casey to finish top-10 at Augusta for the last four years and he has cashed in three of them. The one exception was last year where finished 15th after starting 74/75 due to some undisclosed issue. The guy went 69/65 on the weekend to post the low 36-hole score. Augusta is perfect for a guy like Casey whose iron play is his strength. Pair that with four top-3 finishes in his last seven starts this season and I think Casey is a lock for another top-10 and has a very real chance for a top-5.

Top 5

Tommy Fleetwood 25/1 – First of all let me say, the hair/Jesus jokes/puns are old and it’s time to find some new material. We get it, he has long hair and looks like Jesus. Move on. What’s constantly lost in all of those is that the guy can flat out play golf. I mean really well. His two starts at Augusta haven’t been the best with a missed cut and 17th place finish last year but I think the third times the charm. His ball striking is second to few and I just don’t see someone that hits the ball as well as he does struggling on a course that puts such an emphasis on it after several looks. The putter is always the issue with Tommy and will be the one thing that separates a very good week from a Green Jacket.

Dustin Johnson 10/1 – The fact that DJ still has only one Major win on his resume is mind boggling to me. The talent level is off the charts. His resume at Augusta has definitely improved with three top-10 starts in a row (except for that whole, “slip on the stairs” year). With that said, in 30 rounds at Augusta DJ has only shot in the 60’s 6 times. I think that continues again this year but ultimately I think a big Sunday round moves him into the top-5 and he never seriously has a chance to win.

Rory McIlroy 8/1 – Honestly, there is no reason in the world that Rory shouldn’t win this week. Then again there was no reason in the world he shouldn’t have won in 2011, or last year for that matter. And therein lies the problem with me taking Rory this week. Monty never won a Major, Phil hasn’t closed the door at the US Open and Arnie never won a PGA. Sometimes things that you just assume are inevitable…aren’t. Rory may win this year, or next, or at some point before he retires, it certainly wouldn’t shock me, but I think the pressure of closing out the career grand slam and avenging so many close calls there has taken a toll on him. The only person that has kept Rory from winning at Augusta is Rory himself. The guy has five top-10 finishes in a row at the Masters and I have no doubt that will continue again this year. He will be in contention all the way to the end again this week, but somehow, someway, I’m afraid he gets in his own way and finishes with another “disappointing” top-5 this week.

Final Group on Sunday (and to be honest with, I’m betting on both)

Justin Rose 14/1 – I absolutely love everything about Justin Rose this week. He has been about as consistent statistically as anyone on Tour this year and his record at Augusta is about as solid as you will find. Unfortunately for him he seems to have a not so awesome trend of finishing second recently. He should have won two years ago except Sergio blacked out for 90 minutes and forgot he was Sergio. Throw in another second place finish two years before that when no one on the planet was going to beat Jordan Spieth and you see where this is going. The Masters has a weird history of guys winning every other year. Justin Rose may be the guy that sets an even stranger trend this year by finishing second in 2015, 2017 and 2019. It wouldn’t surprise me in the least if he won this week and I had every intention in the world of picking him this week if not for….

Winner:

Jon Rahm 18/1 – I can’t stand Jon Rahm, so much so that I’m having to type this while wearing latex gloves and spraying it down with Lysol while I type…but it’s going to happen, so just accept it now and at least make some money on it. The guy shot 75 to open the 2018 Masters…and finished FOURTH. And he hasn’t really slowed down since. He has six top-10’s in his last nine starts, and the only thing missing in there is another win, which is only a matter of time. He should have won the PLAYERS if not for possibly the dumbest decision I have ever seen made by a guy leading a golf tournament. Well, lesson learned, surely there is no way he makes that mistake again. His last three rounds at Augusta were 68, 65 and 69; this course is tailor-made for him and the temper that has cost him in the past seems to at least be in check for the time being. Three Spaniard’s have won at Augusta already, unfortunately come Sunday afternoon Jon Rahm will become the fourth.

No matter what happens or who wins, "Happy Masters to all, and to all a good-week!"
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The Masters Betting News, Match-Ups and Trends 1 month 1 week ago #503817

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PGA Tour Betting Preview
The Masters
Augusta National Golf Club – Par 72 – 7,475 yards

The first official Major of 2019 has finally arrived, and Masters week is always a special one for golf fans and bettors alike. It's a tournament steeped in history and tradition (both good and bad), and with the small field and numerous past champions who are well past their prime teeing it up here, it's an event that always looks to blend the past, present, and future of the game into one single week.

Last year the Masters treated me pretty well as Patrick Reed was able to go the distance and cash a nice ticket as one of the couple of winners I had on the entire year. Hopefully this year's tournament can bring similar results for the golfers I'll be getting to in a minute, as it's a loaded field yes, but a small one, and many of the things I honed in on a year ago still apply regarding the course and golfer selection.

Staying away from the senior past champions is a must, and even though Tony Finau managed a Top 10 in his debutant Masters appearance last year – on a dislocated ankle - debutant guys are not ones I'm looking to back. There are 17 first-timers in the field this year when you include the amateurs, and while there are some names in that mix entering with some solid form – Keith Mitchell, Matt Wallace, Lucas Bjerregarrd etc – the nuances that Augusta's greens, and course in general shows guys can be too much for these debutants to handle.

In terms of scoring statistics, Par 4 Birdie or Better numbers have been a great indicator of past champions here as you typically want to come into the event in the Top 10 or so in that category, and being able to hone in your ball striking is always going to be a plus. Par 4 scoring is what tends to separate guys at Augusta, so it's paramount that guys make up strokes there overall.

Scrambling and putting can separate the Top 5 guys though, and as hard as that is to predict, it is something to keep in mind if you are considering some live wagering as the tournament goes on. Which, on that note, you typically want to back guys within four or five shots of the lead after Thursday as an overall general rule.

Finally, recent form can't be ignored either, as each of the last seven winners have had at least a 3rd place finish or better in that calendar year, and with so many big names in this field already hoisting trophies in 2019, there are plenty of great golfers that fit that mold. Also, the last four Green Jacket winners all earned their first career Major victory here, so it's not always the worst idea to settle on guys looking for that illustrious first Major victory.

With that in mind, this year's Master's selections are all guys who are looking to earn that first career Major, fit numerous other key categories, and have experience at Augusta to help them thrive in the thick pressure of Sunday afternoon. And with the goal of going back-to-back with winners at the Masters, I've stretched out the names to four this week.

Odds per - Sportsbetting.ag

Golfers to Watch

Rickie Fowler (+1800) – Fowler is probably the biggest name left on Tour in terms of “guys who've never won a Major”, and after a 2018 season that was not up to his standards, we've already seen him get back into the winner's circle in 2019 – Fitting that Top 3 or better trend in calendar year.

Fowler was the runner-up at the Masters a year ago, and while the biggest knock on Fowler may be that previous Masters runner-up's have only won this tournament the following year one time since 1985 (Jordan Spieth in 2015), that's some history I'm willing to buck with Fowler at this price.

Rickie does enter the week 3rd on Tour in the Par 4 Birdie or Better statistic, and with four Top 12 finishes here in the past five years, he's got to feel like he's on the cusp of a major breakthrough at this event. With that much needed win out of the way after claiming the Phoenix Open, some of the pressure to perform is off his shoulders – there will still be that “no Majors tag” pressure though – but with his talent and course history here, Fowler could be the fifth straight golfer to make the Masters his first career Major.

Hideki Matsuyama (+3300) – Matsuyama is another young phenom on Tour that's yet to claim the “big one” and while his form on the greens this year has not been great at all, He's still managed to have three Top 10 finishes in his last seven starts, including a 3rd in Dubai at the end of January.

Matsuyama has not finished worth than 19th here in each of the past four years, and while those finishes have been progressively getting worse (19th, 11th, 7, and 5th from 2018-2015 respectively), the average finishing position the year prior to winning for the last nine Masters winners has been around 30th. To have that kind of consistency at this tournament is something that should put him in the hunt again this year, as long as he can start scoring again on Par 4's.

Hideki can dial in his irons in a heartbeat though, and if the flatstick gets hot for him and he posts a very low number on a day like he's known to do, +3300 is somewhat of a steal for a guy of this talent.

Patrick Cantlay (+6600) – Cantlay was a guy I was on a year ago, but a missed cut after rounds of 75 and 76 had him watching the weekend from his couch. It was Cantlay's first Masters appearance since playing as an amateur in 2012, and that long layoff between seeing what Augusta National had to offer proved to be detrimental.

But 12 months later, and a boost to #21 in the world, should have Cantlay competing on the weekend this time around. Like Fowler, he's among the Tour's leaders in Par 4 Birdie or Better numbers (T6 with Rory McIlory in that category) and his long game checks off all the boxes in terms of finding success. It's been Cantlay's putting that's held him back at times, but he's still improved in that regard since the 2018 Masters, and putting numbers are so fickle that it's hard to put a tremendous amount of stock in weighing them with your selections.

It just takes a few holes for guys to catch fire with that club, and with three Top 15's in his last six starts, I'm willing to back Cantlay will be in feast-mode this week at Augusta.

JB Holmes (+12500) – It never hurts to back a few long shots in any golf tournament over the course of the season, and that's clearly where JB Holmes fits this week.

Holmes has missed the cut in five of his last seven starts on Tour (along with not getting out of the group stage in the Match Play), but he's also won an event in that span too. Talk about feast or famine, Holmes is a guy that if you catch him on a good week you can cash some big money plays with him, and with a 4th place finish at Augusta in 2016 on his resume, it's not like he hasn't had past success at the Masters either.

Yet, even with all of those missed cuts lately, Holmes still ranks 9th on Tour in the Par 4 Birdie or Better stat, and his length will have all four Par 5's begging for his mercy. If he can put it all together for four days, Holmes could be that American dark horse that nobody sees coming in this event. And while taking him in a Top 20 or Top 10 wager is probably the smartest way to go, this guy's got a winning pedigree on Tour and those odds are very appealing.

Odds to win The Masters - perSportsbetting.ag
Rory McIlroy 7/1
Dustin Johnson 10/1
Justin Rose 14/1
Tiger Woods 14/1
Jon Rahm 18/1
Justin Thomas 18/1
Rickie Fowler 18/1
Brooks Koepka 20/1
Jordan Spieth 20/1
Francesco Molinari 22/1
Tommy Fleetwood 22/1
Bryson DeChambeau 25/1
Paul Casey 25/1
Jason Day 28/1
Bubba Watson 33/1
Hideki Matsuyama 33/1
Phil Mickelson 33/1
Sergio Garcia 33/1
Tony Finau 33/1
Adam Scott 40/1
Louis Oosthuizen 40/1
Matt Kuchar 40/1
Xander Schauffele 40/1
Henrik Stenson 50/1
Marc Leishman 50/1
Patrick Reed 50/1
Gary Woodland 66/1
Kevin Kisner 66/1
Patrick Cantlay 66/1
Alex Noren 80/1
Brandt Snedeker 80/1
Cameron Smith 80/1
Charley Hoffman 80/1
Ian Poulter 80/1
Keegan Bradley 80/1
Si-Woo Kim 80/1
Webb Simpson 80/1
Haotong Li 100/1
Matt Wallace 100/1
Matthew Fitzpatrick 100/1
Billy Horschel 125/1
Branden Grace 125/1
Charl Schwartzel 125/1
Charles Howell III 125/1
Eddie Pepperrell 125/1
J.B. Holmes 125/1
Rafa Cabrera Bello 125/1
Thorbjorn Olesen 125/1
Tyrrell Hatton 125/1
Zach Johnson 125/1
Corey Conners 150/1
Danny Willett 150/1
Emiliano Grillo 150/1
Keith Mitchell 150/1
Lucas Bjerregaard 150/1
Shane Lowry 150/1
Kiradech Aphibarnrat 175/1
Martin Kaymer 175/1
Aaron Wise 200/1
Jimmy Walker 200/1
Kevin Na 200/1
Justin Harding 250/1
Kevin Tway 250/1
Kyle Stanley 250/1
Andrew Landry 300/1
Fred Couples 300/1
Patton Kizzire 300/1
Stewart Cink 300/1
Bernhard Langer 400/1
Shugo Imahara 400/1
Vijay Singh 400/1
Adam Long 500/1
Angel Cabrera 500/1
Jovan Rebula 500/1
Michael Kim 500/1
Satoshi Kodaira 500/1
Takumi Kanaya 500/1
Viktor Hovland 500/1
Alvaro Ortiz 750/1
Devon Bling 750/1
Trevor Immelman 750/1
Kevin O'Connell 1000/1
Jose Maria Olazabal 1500/1
Mike Weir 1500/1
Sandy Lyle 1500/1
Ian Woosnam 2000/1
Larry Mize 2500/1
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The Masters Betting News, Match-Ups and Trends 1 month 1 week ago #503818

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2019 Masters Prop Betting Preview

The first Major of the year always brings with it plenty of prop betting opportunities, and while massive “to make cut” parlays tend to be an industry favorite since such a big percentage of the small Masters Field is likely to see weekend play, but that's definitely not the only (or best) way to attack this tournament.

Last year, my Masters prop bets produced positive results to the tune of 3+ units thanks to Francesco Molinari sneaking into a Top 20 finish at the +400 price tag. That was definitely a nice result considering I ended up spitting into the wind with my “miss cut” selections, and that's one prop category I'll put on the shelf for this Major given the makeup of the field and event structure.

So while there will be some similarities between this year's Masters picks, and which names show up here, hopefully the end result is another profitable Masters tournament.

Odds per - Sportsbetting.ag

Prop Bet #1
Highest 18 hole score: Over 84.5 strokes (+115)

With Masters winners earning a lifetime exemption to the event, this is a tournament where you get a handful of seniors out there playing a few rounds at one of the game's great venues for nostalgia's sake. Combine those guys – who have little chance of competing – with the multitude of amateur invites the Masters gives out to reward golfers for their success at that level, and you get an instance where big scores are readily available from some either overwhelmed amateurs, or unable to keep up seniors. I'm not going to be out here naming names, but I do think we see someone from that group shoot 85 or worse on one of the first two days.

That's because that scoreline has been hit in five of the last seven playings of this event, and at plus-money odds that's hard to ignore. On the human side of things, you never want to see anyone young or old completely struggle at an event like this, but the reality is that Augusta National is hard for even the best players in today's game, and kick up some rough conditions and a few water balls, and ugly numbers happen.

Odds per - Sportsbetting.ag

Prop Bet(s) #2:
Top 20 Finish: Yes

JB Holmes (+600)
Keegan Bradley (+500)
Patrick Cantlay (+275)
Henrik Stenson (+200)

Holmes and Cantlay are two guys I've backed outright from this piece, but at +600 and +275 respectively to finish in the Top 20, that's a nice payout with plenty of wiggle room should they falter down the stretch or just not have it against the elite talent that may be in the mix with them on Sunday.

In terms of adding Bradley and Stenson to this list, both are elite ball strikers themselves when on, and while both of them still battle their putter more often than not, continuing to give themselves chances with their approach shots should have them in a great position on the weekend.

Bradley's results at Augusta have not been stellar as he's never had a better finish than T22 here, and having not played here since 2016, you can understand why his odds are as high as they are. But with two Top 20's in his last four stroke play events, current form is something to hang your hat on with him this week, and thanks to the new putting rules that allow players to keep the pin in, former long putters like Keegan (and Adam Scott) have found that to be highly beneficial to them already this year as they can just think about aiming for the stick. Keegan's still likely to miss a 4-footer or two, but should he avoid mistakes like that, than a +500 payout is easily a nice and feasible reward.

Stenson's ball striking is highly regarded as some of the best in the world, and with his recent form on an upward trajectory as well of late, he's a guy that's hard to ignore at this price for a T20. In the last six Masters, Stenson has finishes of 5th (last year), MC, 24, 19, 14, and 18th, meaning that this bet has cashed at a 67% clip in the past, and with that success rate and a 2-1 price tag, we should not be surprised if Stenson works his way into the Top 20 by tournament's end.

Odds per - Sportsbetting.ag

Top 10 Finish: Yes
Hideki Matsuyama (+300)

Matsuyama is another guy I've got win futures on, and while a Top 20 wager may be considered the 'safer' way to go given that he's cashed that bet each of the past four years at Augusta, bumping him up to a Top 10 finish at +300 adds just that bit more value – he's +120 to Top 20 – that makes this play much more attractive.

Like others listed in this piece, Matsuyama's play on the greens has held him back at times this year, and you'd better be able to knock in some putts at Augusta if you are going to compete. But poor putting is a tag you can put on a large majority of this field as a whole, and with course history being a much bigger part of things this week than it is other week's on Tour, backing Matsuyama being on the first page of the leaderboard when all is said and done is not that hard to take at this price.
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