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Horses: Preakness Stakes Breakdown

Horses: Preakness Stakes Breakdown 1 month 3 days ago #482807

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Betting news, trends, odds and predictions from various handicappers and websites for Thursday 5/17/18
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Horses: Preakness Stakes Breakdown 1 month 3 days ago #482808

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The second leg of the "Triple Crown" is set and the field is ready for the 143rd running of the Preakness Stakes!


2018 Breakdown

PP - Horse ML Odds Jockey (Preakness Record) Trainer (Preakness Record)

1 – Quip 12/1 Florent Geroux (0-2) Rodolphe Brisset (Debut)
Notes: The first of four new shooters, his connections also own Justify, and two other Kentucky Derby runners, so they decided to hold him out of the Derby for this more reasonable spot. He’s lightly raced, will be making his third start of the season but got the worst of it at the draw, That racetrack is going to be really wet and his pedigree says he’ll love it. He’s a really nice horse but I’m not sure he’s in the class of the two favorites. He’ll have to run the race of his life to win but I wouldn’t be shocked if he got a piece of it.

2 – Lone Sailor 15/1 Irad Ortiz, Jr. (Debut) Tom Amoss (0-3)
Notes: He didn’t have the cleanest of trips in the Derby but there are a few others who can say the same and in fact had it worse than he did. Connections make a rider switch to one of the best in the business but I don’t believe the last guy did anything wrong. I just think this horse isn’t this good. It is worth noting his lone win came in a sea of slop at Saratoga. It’s also worth noting that he’s still eligible for an entry level allowance contest. I’m passing.

3 – Sporting Chance 30/1 Luis Contreras (0-1) D. Wayne Lukas (6-41)
Notes: The 2017 Hopeful winner finished fourth in the one-turn Pat Day Mile on the Derby undercard after some traffic trouble but his trio of two-turn races this winter and spring weren’t very good. Simply put, I don’t think he can go this far. And furthermore, his trainer was quoted as saying at the draw that he’s “one dimensional” and pretty much intimated that he’ll be gunning to the lead. Good luck with that, Coach. Not for me.

4 – Diamond King 30/1 Javier Castellano (2-6) John Servis (1-1)
Notes: The local horse, he’s one both of his starts in Maryland at Laurel, including the Tesio last out which was essentially a win-and-you’re-in for this event. Connections scratched from the Peter Pan at Belmont last week for this. Another getting an unwarranted rider change, but I guess if you can get a Hall of Fame rider you get him. He’s tried graded stakes company twice – in the KJC when he fell down after getting cut off, and sprinting in the Swale at Gulfstream, where he finished third. Another who’ll be tested for class. I don’t think he’ll pass.

5 – Good Magic 3/1 Jose Ortiz (0-1) Chad Brown (1-1)
Notes: His effort in the Derby was excellent but it will get overlooked because of how well Justify ran and by people looking for trips coming out of the race. He had a nice trip but, remember, he was involved from jump-street. Maybe not as involved as Justify but in the thick of things nonetheless. Brown doesn’t ordinarily run horses back in two weeks so I look at this as a positive sign. Of course, there are only three American classics so you’d think he’d make an exception for a race of this magnitude but I still think it’s a good thing. This makes far more sense to try than the Belmont. That field will be deeper and you never know about the 12 furlongs. Can he find the three lengths he needs to in just two weeks? You’ll get 3-1 or so if you want to find out.

6 - Tenfold 20-1 Ricardo Santana, Jr. (Debut) Steve Asmussen (2-7)
Notes: He didn’t run that badly when fifth in the Arkansas Derby last out where he was on the wrong end of a four-horse place photo. Victor Espinoza gave him an awful ride that day and now he’s reunited with the guy who was aboard for his first two starts, both wins. Another bred to love a wet track, look for him to get involved sooner rather than later and easily offers the most value of the new shooters that actually have a chance and getting in the exotics.

7 - Justify 1-2 Mike Smith (1-16) Bob Baffert (6-18)
Notes: Look, he’s the best horse in this race. You’re not supposed to chase a :45 and change half-mile in the Kentucky Derby in your fourth start of your career that’s totaled just 77 days and live to tell the tale. He got a great post, it seems like it’s been raining in Baltimore since the Derby and he should get an even more favorable set-up than he did in Louisville. But make no mistake about it, this horse was lame the day after the Derby. I don’t want to hear about skin irritations, cuts and scrapes from the Derby, etc. I’ve been around horses my whole life and I can tell you unequivocally that the horse was lame. Now, they’ve admitted to a heel bruise that apparently has been resolved but he has to wheel back in just 14 days and things obviously haven’t gone completely smoothly. He’ll probably win but I’m not as in love with him as everyone else seems to be
.
8 - Bravazo 20-1 Luis Saez (Debut) D. Wayne Lukas (6-41)
Notes: Lukas is a big believer in having to run in all of these Triple Crown races. Normally, I make fun of him for it, like I did with Sporting Chance. But I think there may be some method to his madness with this guy. Not for this heat…..I don’t think he has much of a chance here but he may be a horse to keep an eye on three weeks from now in the Belmont.
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Horses: Preakness Stakes Breakdown 1 month 1 day ago #482897

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The Preakness Stakes is the second jewel of horse racing’s Triple Crown, and goes off with an expected starting post time of 6:48 p.m. ET from Pimlico Race Course in Baltimore, Maryland Saturday.

If you’re betting on the Preakness Stakes odds, here are some historical trends to keep in mind as well as race analysis and picks courtesy of Jeff Siegel, a racing analyst for Xpressbet and XBTV.

Preakness Stats, Trends and Facts

• The Kentucky Derby winner has gone on to win the Preakness 10 times in the last 21 years.

• Only two horses since 1911 have won the Preakness Stakes at odds of 20/1 or higher. That doesn’t bode well for the long shots in this year’s race: Tenfold (20/1), Bravazo (20/1), Sporting Chance (30/1) and Diamond King (30/1).

• The Preakness favorite is 72-for-143, scoring just over the 50 percent mark all-time. That’s good for Justify, who is a heavy 1/2 favorite on the morning line.

• Only two Preakness winners in more than a half-century have started from post position No. 1: American Pharoah (2015) and Tabasco Cat (1994). Quip (12/1) is starting from the rail in this year’s Preakness.

• Sub even-money favorites have lost the Preakness Stakes 13 times, most recently Nyquist (2016) and Orb (2013). Justify is 1/2 on the morning line, meaning a $2 Win bet would return $3.

Analysis: After surviving a tag-team assault during his superlative victory in the Kentucky Derby, undefeated Justify should encounter a less-taxing assignment in the Preakness - the second of three steps that will lead him to racing immortality. In the Derby, the son of Scat Derby pounded pace-setter Promises Fulfilled into submission midway on the far turn, shrugged off the stalking Bolt d’Oro at the quarter pole, took the best punch Good Magic could muster with a furlong to go, and then easily withstood the late kick of Audible to win by 2 ½ lengths. He did all of this after pressing one of the fastest early paces in Derby history before conquering what was arguably the strongest, deepest Derby field since the turn of the century. Now that he’s scared off most of the competition, his visit to Baltimore should be a stroll in the park.

Main Contenders: Good Magic was a relatively late addition to the Preakness field. He had a very favorable trip in the Kentucky Derby, but still couldn’t come close to passing Justify. He’s a quality colt and is the second-best in this field. Tampa Bay Derby winner, Quip, is owned by the same people as Justify, so don’t expect him to tussle with the Derby winner early. D. Wayne Lukas, of course, will be represented by Bravazo and Sporting Chance. Both have no chance to win, but since when did that ever matter, and besides, who’s to say that one or even both can’t hit the board?

Value Plays: The exacta from Justify to Good Magic will return the equivalent of a ham sandwich, if that, so I need to find someone to use underneath. Let’s try the lightly raced, but talented, Tenfold underneath. In the photo for second in the Arkansas Derby in what was just his third career start, the son of Curlin has plenty of talent and enters the Preakness primed for a forward move. He’s certainly not in Justify’s league, or even Good Magic’s, but if he’s ridden to be third, he could finish there.

$100 Betting Strategy

• $100 Trifecta: JUSTIFY over GOOD MAGIC over TENFOLD ($100)

Jeff’s Preakness Picks

1. Justify
2. Good Magic
3. Tenfold
4. Bravazo

Jeff Siegel
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Horses: Preakness Stakes Breakdown 1 month 1 day ago #482908

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This is one weak field .....they are handing the race to justify.....
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