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Kentucky Derby Picks 1 month 2 weeks ago #481944

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Betting news, trends, odds and predictions for Friday, 5/4/18 from various handicappers and websites
Last Edit: 1 month 2 weeks ago by Shazman.
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Kentucky Derby Picks 1 month 2 weeks ago #481945

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Joe Kristufek

Mendelson, Justify, Vino Rosso
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Jody Demling

1)Mendelssohn #14
2)Justify #7
3)Bolt d’Oro #11
4)Hofburg #9
5)Good Magic #6
6)My Boy Jack #10

His best LS is Hofburg, then My Boy Jack, then
Combatant
After My Boy Jack, his order is 18,5,17,16,19,
2,12,4,8,13,15,20,3,1

Besides configuring your own best bets from his
Info he says Hofberg #9 across the board and
Key #9 w/ all on a $1 exacta
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Patrick McQuiggan from cashiersline.com

14,11,7,5,12
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Kentucky Derby Picks 1 month 2 weeks ago #481946

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Kentucky Derby 144 Analysis & Selections by Ellis Starr

Race 12
Post Time 6:50 PM

Top 6 win contenders:

#14 Mendelssohn

#18 Vino Rosso

#9 Hofburg

#5 Audible

#7 Justify

#10 My Boy Jack

Wow, even though I do it every year, just cutting the win contender list down from 21 to 6 this year was quite a chore, with so many big efforts in the prep races and any number of horses with a good chance of wearing the garland of roses. In the end I've settled on the list above, with a few others to consider for 2nd on exacta tickets and for 3rd on trifecta tickets.

We'll start with Mendelssohn, a Kentucky bred who has raced seven times, just once in the U.S. and that was on turf. However, having won on turf, all-weather and dirt, Mendelssohn has shown all the elements of a champion. As a three year old he's started just twice, but that's a perfect pattern for a peak effort in the Derby. In his most recent race, the U.A.E. Derby in Dubai, Mendelssohn cruised to the lead and continued to extend his advantage, winning by 18 lengths. It may be hard to compare a foreign race with races the U.S. based runners have run, but not so hard with Mendelssohn because when he came over from England last October and won the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf Stakes, he earned a 109 Equibase Figure which was identical to the figure Good Magic earned on dirt the same day winning the Breeders' Cup Juvenile. Since then, Mendelssohn has only gotten bigger and stronger, and there's no doubt he can run as well in the Kentucky Derby as he did in the U.A.E. Derby, which is only 110 yards shorter, because of his pedigree. Not only is Mendelssohn a son of the late stallion Scat Daddy, he is out of the mare Leslie's Lady, the dam of Beholder, who twice ran 1 1/4 miles incredibly well, winning once and finishing second the other time, both in grade 1 stakes races. Another of Leslie's Lady's foals is Into Mischief, himself a top sire represented by Florida Derby winner Audible in this race. Jockey Ryan Moore has been aboard for all four of Mendelssohn's wins and chose to come to the states to ride while foregoing riding in a group 1 stakes at Newmarket in England this weekend. Although Mendelssohn led from start to finish in the U.A.E. Derby last month, in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf he relaxed in fourth before rallying and with that kind of versatility to go along with his bloodlines and the talent he's shown to date, Mendelssohn is my top pick to win Kentucky Derby 144.

Vino Rosso really came into his own last month when winning the Wood Memorial in New York, his second race in blinkers and his third start of this three year old campaign. Showing the kind of quick move that has won the Kentucky Derby many times before, Vino Rosso went from fourth on the far turn, four lengths back, to be in front by a head then fought doggedly before finding extra energy and drawing off for a career best 106 Equibase figure. Having put in a very impressive half-mile morning workout recently at Churchill Downs, it is obvious Vino Rosso has a liking for the track and may take another step forward and into the record books, also giving trainer Todd Pletcher his third Derby victory and second in a row after saddling Always Dreaming to win last year.

Now we come to the dark horse of the group, Hofburg, a horse many people won't consider a contender to win because of a lack of experience compared to others. Hofburg has raced just three times, but he's gotten better with each start, particularly his two starts as a three year old. Trying two turns for the first time and returning from six months off in March, Hofburg won nicely in a field of 11. In his second start off the layoff it might have been conceived his Hall-of-Fame trainer Bill Mott was throwing him to the wolves when entering him in the Florida Derby, but Hofburg was not disgraced one bit when second of nine at the finish. With a quarter mile to go in the Florida Derby, Hofburg was eighth, after having moved up from fifteen lengths back to three lengths behind the leader. Not having the experience of a horse like Audible, who had run four races previously, on the turn Audible went by Hofburg in an instant. However, when he figured out he was supposed to find another gear, Hofburg did just that and rallied past all but the winner to finish second, earning a 107 Equibase figure competitive with the top horses in this race. Since coming to Kentucky, Hofburg has also shown a liking for the surface and he too should have no problem with the mile and one-quarter distance of the Derby as his damsire (grandfather on the mother's side) is Touch Gold, who won both the Belmont Stakes and Haskell Invitational Handicap back in 1997. Comparing Hofburg to a young athlete, his progression to date suggests he could take a big step forward and perhaps post the upset in this year's Derby.

If I am going to take a liking to Hofburg, I would be remiss not to do the same with Audible. Undefeated in four races since a third place finish in his debut last summer, Audible has continued to progress as a three year old, first winning the Holy Bull Stakes with a 97 figure in February then improving markedly with a 111 figure effort in the Florida Derby. Considering the Florida Derby winner was victorious in the Kentucky Derby in three of the last five years, Audible must be on our radar. In the Florida Derby, Audible showed the right kind of quick acceleration I look for every year with my contenders, going from fifth, two lengths back on the turn, to be in front by two, before coasting home. Likely to improve once again in his third start as a three year old, Audible is absolutely a win contender in this race.

Justify is as lightly raced as Hofburg, having run just three times, but according to some he's the most talented horse coming into this year's race, hence he's likely to be the betting favorite. Undefeated in three races, Justify has run back-to-back races where he's earned 108 figures, one of them coming from off the pace and the other leading from start to finish. This will be his toughest test yet, not only because he will be asked to run a mile and one-quarter for the first time, but also because of the supposed "curse of Apollo," which relates to the fact not a single horse has won the Kentucky Derby without having raced at least once as a two year old since Apollo, in 1882. There is something to the theory that having raced at the age of two gives a horse a foundation on which to build, whether it be experience or something else. However, with only 100 or so renewals of the Derby having taken place since Apollo won without starting as a two year old, statistically speaking the curse is more hype than reality. As such, Justify has to be held in high regard when considering who can win the race.

My Boy Jack will round out my sextet of contenders and perhaps it's for sentimental reasons over other reasons. He's just a fun horse to watch as he rallies from last nearly every race, as he did in February winning the Southwest Stakes before making a very wide (10 paths) move in the Louisiana Derby and settling for third. Those efforts earned 106 and 105 figures, respectively, which appear competitive in this group if repeated. Following the Louisiana Derby and being short of enough points to enter the starting gate at Churchill Downs, My Boy Jack ran in the Lexington Stakes just three weeks ago. In that race My Boy Jack rallied from last of 9 to get up by a head. That may seem he barely got there but the mile and one-sixteenth races at Keeneland like the Lexington end at the first finish line. With the length of the stretch at Churchill Downs to work with, and with a good number of tired horses in front of him in the last quarter mile, I expect My Boy Jack to be passing many of them on the far turn and in the stretch and it just might be he passes them all for an upset of the likes not seen since Mine That Bird won the 2009 Derby and paid $103 for a $2 wager.



Betting strategy:

The Derby is a race to take the rubber band off the wallet just a little bit in order to have fun and go for a big sore. So my plays are as follows:

Win bets: Bet three of the six win contenders above to win at 5/1 or more, adding place bets at 8/1 and show bets at 15/1.

Exacta: Play an exacta box consisting of the six contenders. At the $1 level the cost is $30.

One additional Exacta option (not for the faint of heart):

Play the six win contenders over those six and six more, for a total of 12 horses in the second position. In this case, the additional six horses I would use are Flameaway (4), Good Magic (6), Lone Sailor (8), Bolt d'Oro (11), Enticed (12) and Magnum Moon (16).
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Kentucky Derby Picks 1 month 2 weeks ago #481947

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Ellis Star

Race 11 at Churchill Downs on Saturday, May 5 | Post Time 5:25 PM Eastern

Old Forester Turf Classic Stakes | Purse $500,000 | 1 1/8 Miles on Turf | Four Year Olds and Upward





Channel Maker (5) could be a longshot KEY BET on the day, opening at 10/1. He has more 2nd place finishes than wins but he's not 3/1 or 5/2 as favorites Deauville (1) and Beach Patrol (10) are, both of the latter pair with more second place finishes than wins as well. Last fall in the Grade 1 Hollywood Derby, Channel Maker rallied very nicely in the last quarter mile going from 8th to 2nd. After 3 months off he came back in a stakes race nearly identical to this one, again finishing fast but too late and this time with traffic trouble early in the stretch. When last seen, he shortened up to a mile, which is too little a distance for him, but he managed to rally from 12 lengths back to be beaten a length in a highly rated race. This 9 furlong trip seems perfect for him and with 117 Equibase Figure efforts in his last start and the Hollywood Derby to run back to, Channel Maker has a legitimate shot to upset the field here.

Synchrony (7) is already where Channel Maker may be after the race, having won two 9 furlong stakes races in a row this February and March. There is no sign of declining form and jockey Bravo has ridden him beautifully in both races and rides right back.

Kurilov (3) was last seen running against the very strong turf star Heart to Heart, finishing 2nd by a neck in the same race Channel Maker had traffic trouble in. That was Kurilov's third start in the U.S. and more importantly his first U.S. start on grass and he nearly passed the test with flying colors. Heart to Heart came out of that race to win the important Grade 1 Maker's 46 Mile and the horse Kurilov beat for 2nd came back to win the Grade 2 Pan American Stakes so Kurilov could follow in their footsteps to win as well.

Now we come to Camelot Kitten (4) and Shining Copper (2), both owned by the powerful Ramsey Stable and trained by Mike Maker. Most of the time horses sharing common ownership are coupled for wagering purposes but not in grade 1 stakes so if we bet one we really should bet the other, and both are tremendous turf runners with combined career earnings of $1.8 million so neither can be discounted. Shining Copper likes to lead early but rarely gives in while Camelot Kitten compliments his stablemate's running style as a closer. Opening at 15/1 and 8/1, I find it very tough to discount their chances to have a say in the outcome.

About the favorites, Beach Patrol (10) and Deauville (1), and why they aren't on the contender list. Beach Patrol finished 2nd in this race last year after leading late and the year before lost a tough decision in the American Turf (which is for 3 year olds). He's earned over $2 million but he's coming back from six months off whereas all of the others except Yoshida have run recently. It's not that he can't win, but when comparing physical condition to many of the others, all who can run about as well, and the fact Beach Patrol tends to lose stretch battles (settling for 2nd after leading), I'm going to take a stand against him. Deauville has earned $1.2 million, but like Beach Patrol (who has a 5-6-3 career record) Deauville has a 4-5-4 record. He comes in from England off a 2nd of 8 finish when heavily favored and with the track comment "Not enough," which is similar to when he ran last summer in the states in the Arlington Million, rallying from 4th to make the lead in the stretch only to get passed by two horses and end up third.



Betting Strategies:

Win Bets: Channel Maker (5) to win at 7 to 2 or more. Add a place bet at 5 to 1 or higher.

Synchrony (7) can be considered for a win bet at about the same 7 to 2 odds.

Kurilov (3) might also be playable as a win bet, at about 4 to 1 or higher.

Win bets for smaller amounts may be warranted on both Camelot Kitten (4) and Shining Copper (2), at odds of 5 to 1 or more, as both open at high morning line odds of 15/1 and 8/1, respectively.

Exacta: Channel Maker (5), Synchrony (7), Kurilov (3), Camelot Kitten (4) and Shining Copper (2) over Channel Maker (5), Synchrony (7), Kurilov (3), Camelot Kitten (4), Shining Copper (2), Beach Patrol (10) and Deauville (1).

An additional exacta may be warranted keying the two top picks as follows: Channel Maker (5) and Synchrony (7), over Channel Maker (5), Synchrony (7), Kurilov (3), Camelot Kitten (4), Shining Copper (2), Beach Patrol (10) and Deauville (1).
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Kentucky Derby Picks 1 month 2 weeks ago #481983

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Jody Demling Race #11 today at Churchhill Downs
The Kentucky Oaks

1) #10 Midnight Bisou
2) #7 Rayya
3) #14 Monomy Girl
4) #2 Coach Rocks

5 thru 14 finish 5,11,9,4,1,13,6,12,3,8
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Spooky Express

Churchill Downs - Friday
Race 11 (Kentucky Oaks) - W/P/S #2 Coach Rocks - Exacta/Trifecta Box 2-10-11-14
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Eddie Olczyk's picks for the 2018 Kentucky Derby

To win the race: #6 Good Magic

Exactas and Trifectas: 6 over 5,7,9,10,18
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Kentucky Derby Picks 1 month 2 weeks ago #482046

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APwins

Selections in order I like them

# 18 Vino Rosso 12/1 to win

#19 Hoffburg 20/1

#6 Could Be Magic 12/1

#5 Audible 8/1

#11 Bolt D Oro 8/1

#16 Magnum Moon 6/1

#13 Bravazzo 50/1

#4 Flame Away 30/1

#7 Justify 3/1
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Hofburg 20-1
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Kentucky Derby Picks 1 month 2 weeks ago #482047

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My picks
Bolt d oro
Audible
To finish in top 3
Solomoni @ promises fulfilled longshots worth a look
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Kentucky Derby Picks 1 month 2 weeks ago #482051

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Battaglia's Full Card

Race 1
Churchill Picks 7-5-8 (3 stars)
#7 United Patriot- hard trying runner has won 4 of 8 career starts. He was claimed last out while drawing off to win by 4 lengths for his second win in a row, by very sharp connections. They move him up in class, he has a win over this track, and an 8-1 winner would be a great way to start our day.
Race 2
Churchill Picks 2-6-5 (2 stars)
#2 Summer Luck-finished second last out in a tough allowance race at Keeneland that was washed off the turf. She has a win in her only start over this track and looks like the one to beat.
Race 3
Churchill Picks 6-8-4
#6 Irish Freedom-Fresh off his huge score in the Kentucky Oaks yesterday, trainer Cox removes the blinkers from this west coast invader. Brad wins at a huge 58% when he makes that move and he and Castellano have won with 2 of 4 together.

Race 4
Churchill Picks 9-3-4 (2 stars)
#9 Irish Territory-came off an 8 month layoff, had a rough trip, but still ran a decent race last out at Keeneland. He needed that race, shows a fast work since, and Mott is great at cashing bets on big days.
Race 5
Churchill Picks 8-9-7 (3 stars)
#8 McCraken-Loves this track winning 4 of 5, his only miss in the KY Derby last year. He has certainly been taking on tougher, runs well fresh, and should out class these.
Race 6
Churchill Picks 1-5-3 (3 stars)
#1 Finley’sluckycharm- horse for the course for sure. She has won all 6 of her starts here and has won 2 of 4 with a second at this distance. She is coming off a huge win in the grade I Madison at Keeneland last out while racing on a dead rail. She has the inside today, speed was tough yesterday, and she is one of our best bets today.
Race 7
Churchill Picks 8-3-11
#8 Madame Stripes-long shot play both trainer and rider have been hot and we will get a big price on this one.

Race 8
Churchill Picks 7-3-10
#7 Limousine Liberal-another runner who does his best running over this track. He has won 5 of 7 with a second here. He missed by a neck last out while coming off a 5 month layoff in a grade III at Keeneland. He needed that race, shows a bullet work since, and will prove tough to hold off.
Race 9
Churchill Picks 1-2-6 (2 stars)
#1 Speed Franco- has won 2 of 6 with losses of a neck, a neck, and a length, or he would be a perfect 6 for 6. He has the inside, has speed, and is always the one to beat.

Race 10
Churchill Picks 8-12-5 (2 stars)
#8 Mask-685k colt is a perfect two for two to begin his career for trainer Brown. Castellano is back aboard looking to make it three for three.
Race 11
Churchill Picks 10-1-3-5 (3 stars)
#10 Beach Patrol- classy horse has a 5-6-3 record from 17 starts with 2.4 million in earnings. He just missed his third win in a row last out when he missed by less than a length in the Breeders Cup Turf. We are expecting trainer Brown to have a big day.
Race 12
Derby Picks 14-7-9-16-5
#14 Mendelssohn-3 million dollar colt has won 4 of 7 including the Breeders Cup JUF Turf and the UAE Derby last out by 18 lengths. Trainer O’Brien is one of the sharpest in the world and he didn’t come all this way for a Mint Julep, well not just a Mint Julep anyway.
#7 Justify-The favorite and deserving so. He is a perfect three for three and is getting faster with each race. However, in two of his three wins, he took advantage of a speed favoring track to go wire to wire. He is the talk of the town, but 3-1, in a 20 horse field, with a runner who has only 3 starts, we have to try to beat him.
#9 Hofburg- long shot play. This is another runner who has only 3 starts but he has only 1 win. Trainer Mott, as our followers know, is one of our favorite gambling trainers and it would be the ultimate ticket for him to cash on his 20-1 Derby winner.
#16 Magnum Moon- is a perfect four for four and is another who is getting faster with each start. He drew off to win the ARK Derby last out, is working well, has tactical speed and should not be over looked.
#5 Audible- finished third in his debut then rattled off 4 wins in a row including the Florida Derby last out which he won from off the pace. The Derby Super usually pays huge and this one could easily run up in there.
Race 13
Churchill Picks 6-5-9
#6 Determinant- 550k colt broke his maiden two starts back. Connections thought enough of him to try the Blue Grass in his very next start. However, he drew the #14 of 14 post, had a rough trip, and was over matched. He finds easier today, gets Leparoux, and will improve.
Race 14
Churchill Picks 4-6-8 (2 stars)
#4 Corot-missed by only 2 in his debut then came back 6 months later and again missed by two at Keeneland. He gets more ground today, needed his last race, and looks like the one to beat.
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Kentucky Derby Picks 1 month 2 weeks ago #482063

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Dick Jerdi

7 to win

Any h&h? Tia
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Kentucky Derby Picks 1 month 2 weeks ago #482066

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H&H Sports

W/P/S - #18 Vino Rosso
Exacta/Trifecta/Super Box - 18-5-6-7-9-11

Good Luck
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