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PGA: Phoenix Open - Best Bets

PGA: Phoenix Open - Best Bets 6 months 2 weeks ago #470919

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Betting news, trends, odds and predictions for Thursday, February 1, 2018 from various handicappers and websites
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PGA: Phoenix Open - Best Bets 6 months 2 weeks ago #470920

  • Shazman
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PGA Tour Betting Preview
Waste Management Phoenix Open
TPC Scottsdale -7,266 yards – Par 71

As it typically is during every Super Bowl week, the PGA Tour gets rowdy with their stadium golf at TPC Scottsdale. This is usually one of the more fun events on Tour for both the players and the fans as it's an atmosphere that brings a lot of energy and guys will have to approach a -20 number to come away with a victory.

This year we've got Hideki Matsuyama looking for a three-peat after he won in a playoff in both 2016 and 2017, becoming the sixth golfer in this tournament history to successfully defend his title. Of the previous five, only Arnold Palmer was able to complete the three-peat from 1961-63.

That history isn't exactly a plus for Matsuyama as he enters this star-studded field as one of the favorites (+900), but with two wins and a T2 at this event over the last three years, it's hard not to like the Japanese sensation given his course history.

There are quite a few other names in this week's field with great course history, as Phil Mickelson (+5000) is a three-time winner of this event, and Rickie Fowler (+1200) and Bubba Watson (+8000) are both multiple-time runners up here as well.

TPC Scottsdale is a course that demands accuracy off the tee and with approaches, as typically those that gain the most strokes on their approaches during the week find plenty of success. All three Par 5's can be had with eagles, so length is always a plus, and pairing the two together is a great place to start your handicapping.

Putting on these greens isn't overly tough – another reason to back accuracy guys with length who may struggle with some short-game aspects – but the key is definitely avoiding trouble and to not give all those strokes gained back on a mistake or two. History suggests that you may want to stick with a few guys who've had success here in the past, but the value in those guys is all but non-existent pre-tournament as going with guys who've done well here is common knowledge.

With plenty of big names on the board, this field is a bit more wide open than some may believe, so let's take a look at a few guys to keep in mind for this event.

Betting Odds per Sportsbetting.ag

Golfers to Watch:

Rickie Fowler (12/1) – Of all the big names at the top of the odds list, Fowler is the guy I'm inclined to go with here as he would love to gain some redemption for losing to Matsuyama in the playoff two years ago and finishing T4 back in 2016.

Fowler has all the length and accuracy you'd want off the tee, and while the stats don't exactly show it in limited action this year, his course history here and overall resume as a Top 20 golfer in the world for years should take precedent there. Seven of his past eight rounds at this course have been 69 or better and with the winning score being likely being in the -15 to -20 range, daily scores of -3 or -4 is what you want to see.

A missed cut from Fowler last week likely has him as one of the most overlooked favorites for this week's tournament, although many will bring him back to the front of their minds given his course history. It's the latter I'm looking to back here as 12-1 odds aren't horrible by any means for a guy with Fowler's track record here.

Byeong Hun An (40/1) – An is a guy that finished in 6th all alone here a season ago and he is currently 16th on Tour this season in Strokes Gained: Approach. A final round 73 derailed his hopes of claiming the title a season ago, but the experience of having entered the final round with the lead was a good one to go through and draw experience from this time around. Taking An to finish Top 5 or Top 10 might be the smarter approach here given last year's struggles on Sunday, but this is a guy that is playing some good golf of late (T40 and T6 last two starts) and should definitely be on your radar. As long as jet lag from making the trip here from Dubai last week doesn't hurt An too much, expect him to be in contention on Sunday.

William McGirt (100/1) – In terms of a longer shot in the field, McGirt may be the guy to settle on given his consecutive finishes of T24 at this tournament the past two seasons, and the fact that he's a bit refreshed after struggling a bit at the Sony Open a few weeks back. McGirt may not have the length for this course that others do, but he's more than capable of taking advantage of the Par 5's at this course, and if he avoids some Sunday struggles like An had a year ago – McGirt carded a 73 on Sunday last year and had a 73-70 finish on the weekend in 2016 – we could just see him vying for this trophy come late Sunday evening.

Phoenix Open Odds per Sportsbetting.ag

Hideki Matsuyama 8/1
Jordan Spieth 17/2
Jon Rahm 10/1
Justin Thomas 14/1
Rickie Fowler 12/1
Marc Leishman 28/1
Alex Noren 28/1
Daniel Berger 28/1
Webb Simpson 33/1
Gary Woodland 33/1
Tony Finau 33/1
Zach Johnson 33/1
Matt Kuchar 33/1
Adam Hadwin 40/1
J B Holmes 40/1
Byeong Hun An 40/1
Brendan Steele 50/1
Keegan Bradley 50/1
Phil Mickelson 50/1
Shane Lowry 50/1
Kyle Stanley 50/1
Ryan Palmer 50/1
Austin Cook 50/1
Harris English 50/1
Patton Kizzire 50/1
Patrick Reed 50/1
Cameron Smith 66/1
Russell Henley 66/1
Kevin Chappell 66/1
Scott Piercy 66/1
Chez Reavie 66/1
Ollie Schniederjans 66/1
Charley Hoffman 66/1
Francesco Molinari 66/1
J J Spaun 66/1
Ryan Moore 66/1
Xander Schauffele 66/1
Bubba Watson 80/1
Brandt Snedeker 80/1
Bud Cauley 80/1
Russell Knox 80/1
William McGirt 100/1
Bill Haas 100/1
Chesson Hadley 100/1
Kevin Streelman 100/1
Jonas Blixt 100/1
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