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Breeders Cup Betting News and Notes Saturday, November 4th, 2017

Breeders Cup Betting News and Notes Saturday, November 4th, 2017 1 month 2 weeks ago #458598

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BC - Juvenile Fillies
By Anthony Stabile
VegasInsider.com

Distance: 1 1/16 miles
Purse: $2 million
Age: 2YOf
Time: 3:00 p.m. ET

The History

Open Mind, Go For Wand, Meadow Star and Silverbulletday are some of the fantastic young ladies to have captured this event. My Flag splashed home in the mud to win in 1995 before her daughter Storm Flag Flying took the 2002 renewal at Arlington Park. Ria Antonia was put up via DQ in 2013 after She’s a Tiger bumped her in deep stretch. Songbird led them every step of the way in 2015.

Favorites: 18 for 33 (54%)
Shortest: $2.40 (Meadow Star, 1990) *Shortest price in history of the Breeders’ Cup*
Highest: $125.40 (Take Charge Brandi, 2014)

The Best

Moonshine Memories looks to extend her undefeated streak to four in what figures to be a full field for trainer Simon Callaghan. She’ll also look to win her third race at Del Mar, having broken her maiden and taking the G1 Del Mar Debutante, in a pair of sprints at the San Diego-area course in gate-to-wire fashion.

Last out, she took her show up “The 5” to Santa Anita and stretched out for the first time in the G1 Chandelier at this trip. Sitting a couple of lengths off of the pace early on, she made her way to the leader on the turn before drawing away to win by almost three lengths, making her the lone filly to win three races in here.

Separationofpowers was arguably the most dazzling debut winner at Saratoga this summer when she ran away and hid from a field of eight by almost a dozen lengths on the front end for trainer Chad Brown. Those tactics backfired in the G1 Spinaway on closing weekend when she got cooked in a speed duel and was forced to settle for third as the 3-5 favorite.

Stretching out to a mile for the first time in the G1 Frizette over a good track at Belmont, Separationofpowers settled nicely off the early lead through a solid half-mile before unleashing a solid rally through the lane to score by a widening three-plus lengths.

Heavenly Love will look to run her win streak to three for Mark Casse as she makes her fourth start over her fourth different racetrack. In her lone defeat back in June, she finished third at Gulfstream in a five furlong maiden special weight event.

10 weeks later, Casse tried her on turf at Kentucky Downs where she won a six furlong sprint by five lengths with a spectacular nearly-last-to-first move. Last out at Keeneland, she took advantage of a speed favoring dirt course by sitting just off of the pace before galloping away on the turn to win the G1 Alcibiades by over five lengths.

The Rest

Princess Warrior was sharp when breaking her maiden first out in a sprint then closed well in the Alcibiades when she was against the track bias to grab the place money as the 3-2 favorite.

Alluring Star broke her maiden in her debut sprinting over this strip and set the pace in the Chandelier before tiring to second as the 9-5 favorite.

Third in the Chandelier, Piedi Bianchi just missed in the Del Mar Debutante after a maiden score over this course second time out.

Caledonia Road broke her maiden at the tough seven furlong distance at Saratoga in the slop from just off the pace before closing nicely to finish second in the Frizette.

Maya Malibu just missed becoming a G1 winner when she rode the rail to miss by less than a length in the Spinaway. Last out she finished almost a dozen lengths behind Separationofpowers when third in the Frizette.

Casse will also send out Wonder Gadot, who won her debut on grass against winners and G3 Mazarine over the synthetic track at Woodbine last out and Gio Game, a third out maiden winner going this distance at Keeneland most recently.

Blonde Bomber leads the way as far as seasoning goes as she’s already made six starts at Gulfstream Park, breaking her maiden two back before taking a minor stakes.

Stainless broke her maiden on debut then finished a distant third in the G3 Schuylerville. She’s made her last two starts on turf and is the first also-eligible for the Juvenile Fillies Turf, her first preference.

Tell Your Mama makes her first start for new connections and will be looking to break her maiden in here.

If I’m Right…

This race will return to normalcy after its departure last year. I don’t see a Champagne Room-type in here.

Live Longshot

Piedi Bianchi probably should have been second last time out with a better ride. She brings her “A” game every time and should be 10-1 or so.
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Breeders Cup Betting News and Notes Saturday, November 4th, 2017 1 month 1 week ago #459194

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BC - Turf Sprint
By Anthony Stabile
VegasInsider.com

Distance: 5 furlongs (T)
Purse: $1 million
Age: 3up
Time: 3:37 p.m. ET

The History

Run down the hill going 6½ furlongs in its first two runnings before going to this distance in 2011. Mizdirection became the first female to win the event in 2012 and first to repeat in 2013, when there was a dead-heat for second between Tightend Touchdown and Reneesgotzip.

Favorites: 4 for 9 (44%)
Shortest: $6.60 (Regally Ready, 2011)
Highest: $75.00 (Desert Code, 2008)
U.S based: 9
Foreign based: 0

The Field

A yearly ritual…I never use my traditional format for this race. Too much going on in these turf sprints.

Also, you may want to keep in mind that, depending on which past performances you use, they’ll group five furlong and five and a half furlong races together in the DISTANCE column of the PPs. I’ve included their lifetime record at THIS distance at the end of each paragraph.

Here is the field, in alphabetical order.

Bucchero sat a loose pocket before running past the speed and holding off the closers in his first graded tally, the G2 Woodford at Keeneland, most recently. He’s won three of his eight turf starts in all.
5F on T: 3-2-1-0

Cotai Glory finished second in his first North American starts, the G2 Nearctic at Woodbine, just three weeks ago when racing on Lasix for the first time. He is winless in eight G1 tries and has beaten soundly in most of those efforts.
5F on T: 22-3-2-3

Disco Partner is the world record holder by way of his win in the G3 Jaipur earlier this year on the Belmont Stakes undercard when he stopped the clock in 1:05 3/5. He’s won four of his five starts this season, his first since being moved to the Christophe Clement stable. He went another sensational six furlongs in the Belmont Turf Sprint Championship last out, winning by a bit over a length in 1:06 4/5 in his first start in almost two months.
5F on T: 0-0-0-0

In a career that’s spanned six seasons and 46 starts, 21 of which have come on the lawn, Hogy will be trying a G1 on the turf for the first time in his career. He won his first start off the Mike Maker claim two back in the G3 Kentucky Downs Turf Sprint when he stormed home to win in the last few jumps before failing to get to Bucchero when second in the Woodford. You can be sure he’ll be flying late.
5F on T: 5-4-1-0

Holding Gold scored his first graded stakes win this season when he outkicked Hogy and the rest to the wire in the G2 Shakertown at Keeneland back in April. Winless in four starts since, he was third in the Jaipur and second in the Troy at Saratoga before a sixth place finish at Parx last out some two months ago.
5F on T: 2-0-0-0

The globetrotting three-year-old filly Lady Aurelia figures to go off favored for trainer Wesley Ward off of a rare defeat. A three time winner as a juvenile, having scored at Keeneland, Royal Ascot and Deauville, she started her sophomore season off with a popular tally in the Giant’s Causeway at Keeneland before winning for the second time at Royal Ascot in the G1 King’s Stand by three lengths. Last out, she was on the lead sooner than usual and got gunned down in the final stages.
5F on T: 3-2-1-0

The one that got Lady Aurelia in the G1 Nunthorpe was the four-year-old filly Marsha. A bit of a specialist at this distance, she’s hit the board in all six starts this year, finished third in the King’s Stand and suffered her second defeat at the hands of Battaash in a G1 at Longchamp in her latest.
5F on T: 11-5-3-2

2015 Turf Sprint champ Mongolian Saturday has won just one time in his 13 starts since and was far back when ninth in this event last season. Last out, he finished third in the Woodford when he raced on Lasix for the first time in over three years.
5F on T: 11-2-4-2

Pure Sensation has won 5 G3 races in his career, including four at this trip, all at Parx in the Parx Dash and Turf Monster, a race he won in his most recent start two months ago. He’s also a little more effective with some give in the ground though he was third in this going down the hill at Santa Anita last season. This will be his third consecutive try in the event.
5F on T: 6-4-0-0

Richard’s Boy has something most in here don’t – experience and success – over the course. Two wins, a second and a third from four starts at Del Mar litter his PPs and he’s won half of his starts at the distance. A two time stakes winner this year, he finished second off a two month layoff just two weeks ago at Santa Anita.
5F on T: 8-4-1-1

Stormy Liberal is a seven time turf winner but all have come going six and a half furlongs down the hill at Santa Anita. Winless in three starts at Del Mar, he hasn’t raced since an off the board finish in the Jaipur nearly five months ago when he had a four race win stream snapped.
5F on T: 0-0-0-0

Washington D C ships over for Coolmore for his tenth start of the season and since finishing seventh in here last year. He won his first graded stakes from 18 tries in the G3 Phoenix three starts back before a pair of dismal off the board finishes coming into this.
5F on T: 13-3-5-0

The four also-eligible runners, in order, start with B Squared, winner of a California-bred stakes over Richard’s Boy last out. He’s won two of three overall on the lawn buy has never beaten open company.
5F on T: 0-0-0-0

Guns Loaded is making just his third start of the year and lost the rider after stumbling at the start of the G3 Eddie D. Last year he won the G3 San Simeon at Santa Anita.
5F on T: 2-0-0-0

Six-year-old mare Paquita Coqueta had tons of success in her native Chile but is has just two wins from 10 U.S. starts, though one of those victories did come over this course at this distance. As evident by her record, she adores this distance.
5F on T: 11-8-2-1

Tombelaine was claimed from Chad Brown from his most recent effort, a win in an allowance/optional claimer at Belmont going a mile. In fact he was never raced at a distance shorter than seven furlongs in his 14 starts.
5F on T: 0-0-0-0

If I’m Right…

This race is a crapshoot like it is every year. The only constant has been that the Euros usually have trouble because of how quickly these races unfold in the states.

Live Longshot

Richard’s Boy loves the course and the distance. He should be on or close to the lead and be in the 15-1 range.
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Breeders Cup Betting News and Notes Saturday, November 4th, 2017 1 month 1 week ago #459195

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BC - Filly & Mare Sprint
By Anthony Stabile
VegasInsider.com

Distance: 7 furlongs
Purse: $1 million
Age: 3up (f&m)
Time: 4:14 p.m. ET

The History

Run at six furlongs in 2007 because Monmouth Park isn’t configured for the intended distance. Groupie Doll became the first back to back winner in 2013.

Favorites: 3 for 10 (30%)
Shortest: $3.40 (Groupie Doll, 2012)
Highest: $42.40 (Musical Romance, 2011)
The champ is here? Yes. Finest City is here to defend her title

The Best

Seven months ago, a run in this event for Unique Bella would have been absurd to even think about. She was on target to waltz through the important races going long in the three-year-old filly division and even drew comparisons to fellow Jerry Hollendorfer trainee Songbird.

But the injury bug hit after her fourth consecutive win in the G3 Santa Ysabel and Unique Bella didn’t return to the races for over seven months. It was decided she would target this and she finally resurfaced in the G3 L.A. Woman on October 8th at six and a half furlongs. It would be her first start against older rivals. Sent off as the 1-5 favorite, she was off a touch slowly but quickly raced into contention and drew off through the lane to win by over three lengths.

Unique Bella broke her maiden over this course and won the G2 Santa Ynez at this distance. She will be facing the toughest field she’s tried to date and will need to come up with a big effort second off the bench.

Skye Diamonds hasn’t done much wrong since being claimed by Bill Spawr for $40K back in August 2016.

After winning an open claimer, a pair of allowance/optional claimers and a minor stakes, Skye Diamonds tasted graded stakes victory for the first time when she sat her usual stalking trip to win the G2 Great Lady M at Los Alamitos in July. She followed that performance with a win over the course in the G3 Rancho Bernardo.

Two for two at Del Mar in her career, Skye Diamonds will likely get a pace set-up she’s accustomed to

Perhaps the speed of the speed in here is Finley’sluckycharm. Trained by Bret Calhoun, she’s won nine of her twelve starts with two seconds, her lone blemish coming in her lone two-turn try.

A five time stakes winner, she started the season with consecutive tallies in the Roxelana, G3 Winning Colors and G3 Chicago, all at Churchill. Two back, she set the pace in the G2 Honorable Miss before getting passed late by Paulassilverlining in the G2 Honorable Miss at Saratoga.

Things took an interesting turn last out in the G2 TCA at Keeneland. Sent off as the prohibitive 4-5 favorite, Finley’sluckycharm was bumped at the start and for the first time in a long while wasn’t on the lead. And while it wasn’t her prettiest effort, she did manage to come from off the pace to win by close to two lengths.

Paulassilverlining has an interesting year since finishing third in the event last season. After closing out 2016 with a minor stakes win at Aqueduct, she was purchased privately by Juddmonte Farms and turned over to Chad Brown.

In his first start with Paulassilverlining, Brown got her to win that G1 that eluded her throughout her career when she came from off the pace to win the Madison at Keeneland going this distance. She followed that up with another G1 score in the Humana Distaff at Churchill in the slop on the Kentucky Derby undercard.

After wearing down Finley’sluckycharm in the Honorable Miss, she stubbed her toe in a strangely run renewal of the G1 Ballerina at Saratoga where she was never a factor, finishing fifth as the lukewarm 2-1 chalk. This will be her first start in 10 weeks.

The Rest

Defending champion Finest City won the G2 Santa Monica after her 8-1 upset of this last season but is winless in four starts since. Most recently she was a bad third in the Great Lady M some four months ago. She’s won two of her three tries locally.

Constellation will make her first start for trainer Bob Baffert having finished second in all four starts this year – G3 Las Flores, Madison, Great Lady M, Rancho Bernardo - since closing out her sophomore campaign with a G1 La Brea victory going this distance.

By the Moon won a G1 for the first time in almost three years when she walked the dog on the front end of a paceless Ballerina last out. Fifth in this event last season, she should revert to her usual stalking tactics against some speedier types in here.

Carina Mia disappointed last year as the slight 3-1 favorite and has one just once in five tries since, a restricted stakes at Saratoga in her first start for Brown this summer. It’s starting to look like her tally in the G1 Acorn last year is the exception as opposed to the rule on her PPs.

Highway Star has lost just twice in 10 tries around one turn, to Songbird and Paid Up Subscriber in the G1 Ogden Phipps and when she missed by a head two back in the Ballerina. She’s won her other three starts at the distance and the G2 Gallant Bloom most recently.

Ami’s Mesa ships in from Woodbine by way of Presque Isle Downs for her conventional dirt debut on a four race win streak. She won a pair of G3 stakes at Woodbine over their Tapeta surface before taking the G2 Presque Isle Masters over another synthetic surface last out.

Bar of Gold cuts back from nine furlongs to seven panels, a popular handicapping angle, after she failed to fire in the G1 Spinster over a sloppy track at Keeneland in her latest. All of her career victories have come over wet tracks or on turf and against fellow N.Y.-breds.

Curlin’s Approval ships in from Gulfstream having won half of her tries at this distance, including the G2 Princess Rooney in July and a minor stakes last out.

Princess Karen set the pace before getting inhaled by Unique Bella in the L.A. Woman and appears to be in way over her head.

Proper Discretion is 10 for 17 in her career, mostly against fellow Ohio-breds and figures to be nothing more than an early pace presence.

If I’m Right…

A lot of people are going to be surprised when this one is over. Unique Bella can obviously win, and I’ll use her as a saver in some multi-race wagers, but I think she’s ripe for the picking.

Live Longshot

Highway Star ALWAYS shows up around one turn. She’ll be in the right spot should this pace collapse and figures to be in the 20-1 range.
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Breeders Cup Betting News and Notes Saturday, November 4th, 2017 1 month 1 week ago #459196

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BC - Filly & Mare Turf
By Anthony Stabile
VegasInsider.com

Distance: 1 1/8 miles (T)
Purse: $2 million
Age: 3up (f&m)
Time: 5:00 p.m. ET

The History

Ouija Board won it in 2004 and 2006 and was stopped by Intercontinental in 2005 when she was second. Five jockeys have won two runnings while trainers Sir Michael Stoute and Chad Brown have each won three.

Favorites: 5 for 18 (28%)
Shortest: $3.80 (Ouija Board, 2004)
Highest: $94.00 (Shared Account, 2010)
U.S based: 11
Foreign based: 7
The champ is here? Yes, Stoute’s Queen’s Trust will look to help him break his tie with Brown while defending her title at the same time.

The Best

In what will likely be the final start in a remarkable career, there is no other place to start than with Lady Eli, who is looking for her second Breeders’ Cup win having taken the 2014 Juvenile Fillies Turf.

Lady Eli has won 10 of 13 starts and finished second in the other three, beaten less than a length COMBINED in those efforts, including last year’s renewal when Queen’s Trust beat her a nose in just her third start off of a year-plus layoff necessitated by a career and life-threatening injury.

This season, after a head defeat in a loaded rendition of the G1 Jenny Wiley at Keeneland, Lady Eli has won three straight, including the G1 Gamely at Santa Anita and G1 Diana at Saratoga at this distance. Last out, 10 weeks ago, she made her patented mid-pack run to roll to a popular score in the G2 Ballston Spa on the Travers undercard.

Oddly enough, Lady Eli’s fiercest competition may come from her stablemate, Grand Jete, who comes into this off of a couple of interesting trips, to say the least. After racing in France as a sophomore, Juddmonte sent Grand Jete to Brown for this season and she promptly rattled off three straight victories in a couple of allowance races at Keeneland and Belmont that were sandwiched between a tally in the G3 Eatontown at Monmouth.

She took a huge jump in class for the G1 Beverly D on Arlington Million Day. Sent off at 3-1, Grand Jete was tucked in along the rail behind a moderate pace and was left without racing room when the field turned for home. She managed to bully her way to daylight but it was too late and she was forced to settle for a dead-heat for second as her stablemate Dacita got the nod by just a half-length after a dream trip.

Then last out, stretching out to ten furlongs for the first time and with a rail draw, she went to the front for the first time in a paceless running of the G1 Flower Bowl back at Belmont. She tired very late to finish third by a length as the even money favorite.

Speaking of Dacita, the multiple G1 winner rounds out the three-pronged attack Brown is launching at this to win it for a record fourth time.

Though she’s gotten a reputation for wanting a little more ground than the nine furlongs this event will be run at for the first time in its 18-year history, she’s actually quite accomplished in and around this trip. She beat Tepin two years ago in her U.S. debut at 1 1/16 miles in the Ballston Spa and won the G1 Diana in thrilling fashion last year at this distance.

This season, Dacita owns just one win in four starts, the aforementioned Beverly D but was compromised by slow paces in her first two starts of the season and again last out when second in the Flower Bowl.

The Rest

Defending champ Queen’s Trust came into this last year with just a synthetic track victory from seven starts to her credit. She returns this year still eligible for a second level allowance contest as she’s gone winless in five starts with just a third place finish this season against some toughies like defending Turf champ Highland Reel and Enable.

War Flag beat colts in her first U.S. start back in June. After a second place finish in the G3 Matchmaker at Monmouth and G3 Glens Falls at Saratoga, she won her G1 debut when she got up to win the Flower Bowl by a head over Dacita. She’s won two of her three starts at this trip.

Avenge has won the last two runnings of the 10 furlong G1 Rodeo Drive at Santa Anita and was a solid third, beaten just a length in this last year. She’s won two of her three starts locally, including the G2 John C Mabee at this distance, last season.

Cambodia is perfect in two tries at Del Mar, having won the G2 Yellow Ribbon and this years’ Mabee nine weeks ago in her last pair since shipping out west. She’s won six of 10 turf starts overall over five different turf courses.

The three-year-old Rhododendron won the G1 Prix de l’Opera last out, her first victory in five starts this year. Second to Enable earlier this season, she’s the Euro that will likely benefit from the shorter distance of this event this year.

Zipessa scored the biggest win of her career when she closed nicely to take the G1 First Lady at Keeneland in her latest effort. She won an entry level allowance/optional claimer and finished off the board in the G1 Del Mar Oaks in the second and third starts of her career, respectively back in 2015.

Wuheida was set to make her stateside debut against fellow sophomore fillies in the G1 QE II Challenge Cup at Keeneland three weeks ago but was forced to scratch with a minor foot bruise. She’s winless in four starts this season after winning both of her races, including a G1, as a juvenile.

Senga beat a suspect bunch of sophomore fillies in a G1 earlier this year in France before a couple of uninspiring efforts when third two back and well behind Rhododendron last out in her second start off of a two month break.

Nezwaah hasn’t had much success racing stateside as she has finished off the board in the last two renewals of the G1 E.P. Taylor at Woodbine but did win a G1 three starts back before running into Enable two back.

Birdie Gold will be making her U.S. debut off of a four month layoff having finished second and first in her last two starts, her lone turf tries, down in Peru.

Goodyearforroses was abysmal in the Rodeo Drive when she failed to threaten at any point as the even money favorite. Second in the Mabee, she started off the season with victories in a minor stakes and the G2 Santa Ana at Santa Anita before losing her last four starts.

Minor stakes winners Kitten’s Roar and Responsibleforlove are the two also-eligibles, in order, for this event.

If I’m Right…

Chad Brown will win this race. I’m not sold on the Euros and the other American runners just don’t stack up with his trio at this distance.

Live Longshot

It’s not often a Euro is considered a longshot in a B.C. race contested on turf but I thing Rhododendron will be a square price, say 15-1, and will love the distance.
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Breeders Cup Betting News and Notes Saturday, November 4th, 2017 1 month 1 week ago #459197

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BC - Sprint
By Anthony Stabile
VegasInsider.com

Distance: 6 furlongs
Purse: $1.5 million
Age: 3up
Time: 5:37 p.m. ET

The History

Dayjur was home free in 1990 before famously jumping a shadow at Belmont Park and allowing Safely Kept to become one of three fillies to win this. Thirty Slews won the 1992 running, introducing the world to a then unknown trainer by the name of Bob Baffert. Kona Gold ran in the Sprint five times, grabbing the brass ring just once in 2000. Midnight Lute won back to back races in 2007 and 2008, while 2011 Juvenile Sprint winner Secret Circle won the 2013 renewal with just one prep race in over 18 months. Last year, Drefong gave Baffert five wins in the event.

Favorites: 8 for 33 (24%)
Shortest: $4.60 (Ellio, 1984)
Highest: $54.60 (Sheikh Albadou, 1991)
The champ is here? Yes. Drefong is looking to defend his title.

The Best

Defending champion Drefong will look to give trainer Bob Baffert a sixth victory in this event in just his third start since taking them virtually gate-to-wire in last years’ renewal.

Things couldn’t have gone more differently in Drefong’s two starts this season. In his return to the races off of a nearly nine month layoff, he was sent off as the 9-5 second choice in the G1 Bing Crosby at Del Mar in a field of nine. Breaking from post 2 under Mike Smith, Drefong spooked almost immediately and ducked in towards the gap and unseated his rider.

Less than a month later some 10 weeks ago, Baffert shipped Drefong to the scene of his other G1 tally last season, Saratoga, where he won the King’s Bishop at seven panels. Another seven furlong event was on tap, the G1 Forego and this time Smith managed to stay aboard. He also managed to get his speedy charge right to the front and made every pole a winning one, taking the race by a widening four lengths in a sharp 1:21 as the 6-5 favorite.

Roy H has turned into a new horse since being gelded earlier this year for trainer Peter Miller. A couple of allowance/optional claiming wins on the turf and dirt at Santa Anita was followed by an eye-catching performance in the G2 True North at Belmont in early June.

Of all the remaining runners, he seemed to be bothered the most by Drefong’s antics as he was forced extremely wide yet battled on gamely to hold second as the slight 8-5 favorite, his first defeat since receiving the “ultimate” equipment change.

Roy H returned to his winning ways last out, his first start in over two months, when he battled his way to victory in the G1 Santa Anita Sprint Championship, a seemingly perfect prep for this spot.

Mind Your Biscuits will be looking for some redemption, and to turn the tables on Drefong after he failed to fire his best shot in the Forego for trainer Chad Summers.

Mind Your Biscuits has become a two time G1 winner since being elevated to second after the DQ of Masochistic in this event last year. He won the Malibu to close out 2016 before traveling to Dubai to storm home and win the $2 million Golden Shaheen on the Dubai World Cup undercard.

An easy win in the G2 Belmont Sprint Championship preceded his Forego flop. He didn’t have a clean trip and never appeared to be comfortable at Saratoga whatsoever. Like Drefong, ‘Biscuits’ has had 10 weeks to prepare for this.

The Rest

Imperial Hint has won all four starts this year and five straight coming into this off of a two month layoff. He counts the G3 General George at Laurel, G3 Smile at Gulfstream and LeVine Memorial at Parx amongst his wins this year, the last in a wicked 1:07 2/5 for this distance. He’s a perfect three-for-three with his rider Javier Castellano as well.

Takaful nailed down his first stakes win when he sat just off the early pace of the now-injured El Deal in the G1 Vosburgh one start removed from getting run down by Practical Joke after setting a fast early pace going seven furlongs in the G1 H Allen Jerkens. A winner in both tries at this distance, the ability to rate he exhibited last out could prove handy in a field loaded with more experienced front-running types.

Whitmore is a bit of a six furlong specialist, having won seven of his nine tries at the distance. A four time stakes winner, he overcame an inside speed-favoring course to close nicely from his outside post 11 draw to win the G2 Phoenix last out at Keeneland in his biggest victory to date. He would surely benefit from a hotly contested pace.

Practical Joke is undefeated around one turn and got his lone G1 win when he closed along the inside to win the Jerkens. He did win his only start at this trip in his debut but is far more likely to run in his first preference race, the Dirt Mile.

After spending the bulk of his career at Woodbine on turf and synthetic surfaces,
Ransom the Moon has turned things around for the good since switching barns and relocating to SoCal this season. Two starts back, he parlayed an inside trip that kept him out of harm’s way into a G1 tally in the Bing Crosby failing to fire off the bench in the SA Sprint Championship most recently.

American Pastime takes on older stakes foes for the first time after running a bang-up second in the G3 Gallant Bob at Parx when he chased the now-retired Coal Front to the line. He won a second level allowance/optional claimer at this distance over the course two starts back and has won half of his six career starts, all this season.

Calculator will be making his first start at this distance after failing to close the deal when making the lead in deep stretch of the seven furlong G2 Pat O’Brien, his lone start over the Del Mar conventional dirt. He’s also finished second at seven furlongs in the G1 Carter at Aqueduct and G2 Churchill Downs Handicap.

B Squared has only won races restricted to California-breds and has just one win in six starts on dirt. He’s the first also-eligible in the Turf Sprint, his first preference.

If I’m Right…

They are gonna sizzle on the front end. Drefong will likely be the speed of the speed but he’ll likely face stronger and more potent pressure than he faced in this last year on the lead.

Live Longshot

Takaful might be able to work out the exact trip he sat in the Vosburgh. The question is can he work out the same result? It’s worth a flyer at 10-1 to find out.
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Breeders Cup Betting News and Notes Saturday, November 4th, 2017 1 month 1 week ago #459198

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BC - Mile
By Anthony Stabile
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Distance: 1 mile (T)
Purse: $2 million
Age: 3up
Time: 6:19 p.m. ET

The History

Where should I start?!?! Four horses have won multiple runnings, starting with Miesque beating the boys in 1987 and 1988. The speedy Lure won back to back runnings in 1992 and 1993 before failing to accomplish the three-peat in 1994. Da Hoss, amazingly, won it in 1996, ran once in between then re-rallied in the final strides to win it two years later in 1998. And, of course, Goldikova won three in a row from 2008 through 2010 before finishing third in 2011. In 2012, Wise Dan capped off his Horse of the Year campaign with a popular Mile score over 2011 Kentucky Derby winner Animal Kingdom and came back to defend his Mile title in 2013. It’s worth noting that Goldikova’s trainer Freddie Head has won three and is a five-time Mile winner and the only person to win a Breeders’ Cup race as a trainer and a jockey, as he was the regular rider of Miesque.

Favorites: 11 for 33 (33%)
Shortest: $3.60 (Wise Dan, 2012)
Highest: $131.60 (Court Vision, 1986)
U.S based: 20
Foreign based: 13
The champ is here? No. Tourist has been retired

The Best

Ribchester ships over for Godolphin and trainer Richard Fahey with three G1 wins at a mile this year and four at the distance overall.

Third in the G1 Dubai Turf on the Dubai World Cup undercard going nine furlongs to start the season, Ribchester won two in a row before missing by just a neck. He came back to score for his third time in six starts this season.

Last out, just two weeks prior to the Mile, he made the lead with a little over a quarter mile to go before getting run down late as the 2-1 favorite. If you’re worried about the quick turnaround, it’s worth noting he won a G1 last year off just a 17 day break but didn’t have to deal with a trans-Atlantic flight in between.

Coolmore and Aidan O’Brien, the connections of the talented three-year-old filly Roly Poly opted to forego a run against the ladies in the nine furlong F&M Turf to try the boys at her favorite distance. It’s a bit of a curious move since she’s made all but one of her 16 starts against fillies prior to this.

After closing out her juvenile season with a failed run at odds of 9-2 in the Juvenile Fillies Turf, Roly Poly started the year with four consecutive defeats before breaking through with back-to-back G1 victories when she stepped up against older rivals.

Her win streak was snapped over yielding ground two back before Roly Poly returned to the winners’ circle in the G1 Sun Chariot in her latest.

Despite wins in some middle distance races throughout his career, World Approval made a name for himself going a bit longer, with a tally in the 2016 G1 United Nations at 11 furlongs the biggest feather in his cap, coming into this season

This year, after wins in a Florida-bred stakes and G2 Dixie on the Preakness undercard at Pimlico, World Approval failed to fire off of a perfect trip in the G1 Manhattan on the Belmont Stakes undercard. It gave trainer Mark Casse an idea.

After a two month break, World Approval made the first turf start of his career at a mile in the G1 Fourstardave at Saratoga. After buckets of rain poured down on the Spa in the hours prior to the race, leaving the course a yielding bog, he sat just off the early pace and relished the going through the lane to win by over two lengths before taking a weak renewal of the G1 Woodbine Mile virtually gate-to-wire from his rail draw most recently.

The Rest

It took his connections 31 prior starts over four seasons to get him here but Suedois managed to award them with a sensational score in the G1 Shadwell Turf Mile last out at Keeneland when racing on Lasix for the first time. He should love all of the pace signed on in here but must avoid the dreaded Euro-bounce.

Heart to Heart has failed in all six of his tried to win a G1, with near misses when finishing a neck behind the winner in the Makers 46 Mile and half-length behind Suedois in the Shadwell. He figures to be part of a crowded front end.

Midnight Storm is a G1 winner on the lawn by way of his gate-to-wire tally in the Shoemaker Mile at Santa Anita last year. A solid third in this last season, he’s run almost exclusively on dirt this year, with just one win from six starts on New Year’s Day in the G2 San Pasqual when Arrogate scratched. His lone turf start came two back when he was fourth as the 2-1 chalk in the G2 Del Mar Mile over a course he’s won five of seven starts over in his career.

Blackjackcat comes in on a four race win streak, all at this distance, including the Wickerr and G2 Del Mar Mile, over the course before taking a minor stakes at Santa Anita. Overall, he’s four for five at the distance and three for five over the strip.

Ballagh Rocks finished third in both the Fourstardave and Shadwell last out after a win in the G3 Poker at this trip. He should get a favorable pace set-up for his late rally here. His trainer Bill Mott won this last year with Tourist.

Lancaster Bomber was a bang-up second last year after a brutal trip in his two-year-old finale behind Oscar Performance in the Juvenile Turf. This year, he finished behind his Classic-bound stablemate Churchill and some other top sophomores before getting the place money in the Woodbine Mile. Two weeks ago, he beat just one home over soft ground at Ascot.

Om hasn’t won in nine tries over the last two calendar years but has come very close, missing in the Turf Sprint by a nose after a rough trip last season and last out when the blinkers went back on for the first time in over two years in the Eddie D where he finished third.

Karar has won just one of his five starts this season, a G3 going seven furlongs two starts back, since a disastrous last place finish in the Turf Sprint last year. Third as the 6-5 favorite in a G1 last out, he’s won just one of his seven starts at this trip and four of 18 starts overall.

Mr. Roary won his first graded stakes, the G3 Eddie D, down the hill at Santa Anita sprinting last out and will be making his G1 debut. He’s winless in five starts at Del Mar and just one for five at a mile.

Godolphin also has Home of the Brave, a graded stakes winner in sprints who has plenty of speed for trainer Hugo Palmer, presumably to make sure the pace is contested.

Zelzal hasn’t won any of his four starts since taking the lone G1 to his credit in July 2016 at Chantilly. Last out he disappointed as the 6-5 favorite in a G1 going seven panels.

If I’m Right…

There is a chance for some chaos in here. There appears to be A LOT of speed signed on, this is not the strongest U.S. contingent we’ve seen in this event and I’m not sold on the Euros. That’s a possible recipe for a big price. Now we gotta find it!!!

Live Longshot

Blackjackcat loves the course, the distance and should be within striking distance when that pace starts to collapse. He should be 15-1 or so too.
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Breeders Cup Betting News and Notes Saturday, November 4th, 2017 1 month 1 week ago #459199

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BC - Juvenile
By Anthony Stabile
VegasInsider.com

Distance: 1 1/16 miles
Purse: $2 million
Age: 2YO
Time: 6:58 p.m. ET

The History

Is It True upset the great Easy Goer in 1988. Unbridled’s Song out-dueled Hennessy to win the 1995 running in just his third start. Johannesburg shipped in from across the pond and halted Officer’s winning streak in 2001. Street Sense took the first step in breaking the Juvenile/Kentucky Derby jinx by winning it in 2006, with Nyquist following in his hoof prints in 2015. Arazi put on his amazing display in the 1991 renewal at Churchill. In 2014, the Desormeaux brothers, trainer Keith and jockey Kent, teamed up with longshot Texas Red.

Favorites: 11 for 33 (33%)
Shortest: $3.40 (Chief’s Crown, 1984)
Highest: $63.20 (Vale of York, 2009)

The Best

Bolt d’Oro looks to stay perfect in four starts and has a good chance at being the shortest priced favorite of the two day event for trainer Mick Ruis. If he runs the way he has in his first three starts, he should have little problem rewarding his backers.

Despite breaking a bit slowly, Bolt d’Oro won his first two starts sprinting at Del Mar. A maiden win while dueling on the lead was followed a last-to-first procession in the G1 Del Mar Futurity.

Last out, on the stretch out to this distance in the G1 Front Runner at Santa Anita, Bolt d’Oro finally broke cleanly, sat just off the early pace and rolled to an almost eight length score. Not only did he appear to overcome his gate woes but he rated kindly and responded well when asked for run to put away the leader on the far turn before throttling down near the wire.

Free Drop Billy shipped into SoCal almost immediately after he hit the line first by four lengths in the G1 Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland at this distance for trainer Dale Romans.

Earlier this season, Free Drop Billy broke his maiden at first asking at Churchill Downs before finishing a couple of tough-luck second place finishes in a pair of Saratoga stakes, the G3 Sanford and G1 Hopeful where he was involved in an inquiry that would have gotten him the brass ring had the stewards reversed the decision.

In the Breeders’ Futurity, he checked all the boxes you want a two-year-old to. He passed half the field, made up substantial ground between horses and finished strongly through the lane as the 3-2 favorite.

G1 Champagne winner has won three of his first four tries, including two graded stakes, but will be making his first start around two turns in the Juvenile.

Trained by Jason Servis, Firenze Fire broke his maiden first out at Monmouth before capturing the G3 Sanford on opening weekend at Saratoga. In the Hopeful, he made a wide move to nowhere and never truly looked comfortable finishing fourth on a funky course that was labeled good after weekend rain.

He got back on a fast track and to his winning ways in the Champagne. Drawn outside in post 12, he was far back early in the prestigious one-mile affair before launching a wide bid to get the money in the final 70 yards.

The Rest

Good Magic is one of three maidens set to try and win for the first time in the Juvenile. Second in his debut going seven furlongs, Good Magic made the lead in deep stretch of the Champagne before getting cut down by Firenze Fire.

Solomini won his debut sprinting then got his doors blown off when he tried following Bolt d’Oro in the Front Runner in his latest. He should improve in his second start going two turns.

Another maiden, Givemeaminit was second and third behind Sporting Chance in his debut and the Hopeful, respectively, before a fifth place finish off of a bit of a wide trip in the Breeders’ Futurity.

The Tabulator is undefeated in three starts, including a minor stakes at Prairie Meadows and the G3 Iroquois at this distance most recently some seven weeks ago when he added Lasix for the first time.

$3 million yearling Mendelssohn will represent Coolmore in his first U.S. start after running four times on turf in Europe. His lone win came going a mile. They also two-time G1 winner U S Navy Flag nominated to this but his first preference is the Juvenile Turf on Friday’s card.

Hollywood Star was cutting into The Tabulator’s lead late in the game in the Iroquois before falling less than a length short. Earlier this year, he broke his maiden first out then finished a distant second to Copper Bullet in the Saratoga Special.

The third maiden is Bahamian. Fourth in his debut, he was second to Solomini before breaking awkwardly and stumbling at the break in the Champagne where he never threatened.

Hazit beat Good Magic in their debut then finished a flat fifth in the Champagne. His first preference is the Juvenile Turf but he is also-eligible number 12 so he’ll likely run here.

Golden Dragon is just below Hazit on the Juvenile Turf AE list, a race that is his first preference as well and with good reason as all four of his starts (two wins) have come on turf.

If I’m Right…

We’re going to get an amazing effort out of racing’s next potential superstar, Bolt d’Oro.

Live Longshot

Trainer Dallas Stewart has a knack at getting big prices to run on big days. Use Givemeaminit in your exotics, especially at 15-1 or higher.
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Breeders Cup Betting News and Notes Saturday, November 4th, 2017 1 month 1 week ago #459200

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BC - Turf
By Anthony Stabile
VegasInsider.com

Distance: 1½ miles (T)
Purse: $4 million
Age: 3up
Time: 7:37 p.m. ET

The History

Pebbles in 1985 and Miss Alleged in 1991 are the only two fillies to have beaten the boys in this. Theatrical finally got the job done in 1987 and more importantly helped forge the Bill Mott/Allen Paulson partnership that would rule the sport for a decade. Kotashaan capped an amazing Horse of the Year season with a win in 1993. High Chaparral won it in 2002, then dead-heated with Johar in 2003, the only dead heat for win in Breeders’ Cup history. Better Talk Now won it in 2004 before failing to do so the next four years. Conduit won consecutive runnings in 2008 and 2009. In 2011, trainer Aidan O’Brien trained St. Nicholas Abbey to win with his son Joe in the saddle. Main Sequence won his fourth G1 in as many tries with his patented late run to take it down in 2014.

Favorites: 9 for 33 (27%)
Shortest: $3.80 (High Chaparral, 2002 and Conduit, 2009)
Highest: $108.80 (Lashkari, 1984)
U.S based: 13
Foreign based: 21
The champ is here? Yes. Highland Reel will try to defend his crown after blitzing the field in gate-to-wire fashion last year.

The Best

Sir Michael Stoute’s Ulysses leads the Euro contingent coming off a third place finish in the G1 Arc de Triomphe behind the magnificent filly Enable.

A non-threatening fourth in this last season, Ulysses has won half of his starts this year, including the G1 Coral Eclipse and G1 Juddmonte International at distances considerably shorter than this

Just one for five at this trip, with that win coming last year in a G3, Ulysses was second earlier this year in another G1, again finishing behind Enable.

Unlike Ulysses, defending Turf champion Highland Reel thrives at the 12 furlong distance, having won or placed in eight of his 12 starts, with four of his five wins at the trip coming in G1, including a smashmouth, front-end win in this last season.

Trained by Aidan O’Brien for Coolmore, Highland Reel has seen the world in a career that’s spanned four seasons and 25 starts. He’s won here, in Ireland, England and Honk Kong, raced in Dubai, France, most notably second in last year’s Arc and finished third in Australia’s prestigious G1 Cox Plate back in 2015 in what turned out to be the first of three runnings won by the great race mare Winx.

This season, after another subpar effort in Dubai, Highland Reel won a pair of G1s, including the Coronation Cup at this trip before a third place finish behind Enable and Ulysses three months ago. Last out, just two weeks ago, he finished third in a G1 at Ascot.

Beach Patrol comes in off wins in two of America’s top G1 turf races, the Arlington Million and Joe Hirsch Turf Classic at Belmont, for trainer Chad Brown.

Winner of the G1 Secretariat at Arlington last year as a sophomore and runner-up in the G1 Hollywood Derby over this strip, Beach Patrol was winless in four tries this season before getting a rider switch to Joel Rosario for the Million.

This distance was a big question in the Hirsch but Beach Patrol answered it in a big way, comfortably rating behind a hopeless longshot on the lead before exploding through the lane to win by a widening five lengths.

The Rest

Bigger Picture has hit the board in all four of his starts at this distance, including a tally in the JB Connely at Sam Houston back in January. Claimed out of his final start of 2015 by Mike Maker for $32,000, he has gone on to earn over $800K in the two seasons since.

Bullards Alley parlayed his love for a soft course at Woodbine to win his G1 debut in the Pattison Canadian International by almost 11 lengths last out at this distance in what was easily the performance of his career just three weeks ago.

Cliffs of Moher gets Lasix for his U.S. debut having failed to threaten in his last four tries against older rivals in Europe. Earlier this year, he won a minor stakes to start the season before missing by less than a length in the G1 Epsom Derby, the last time he’s been close to the money.

Decorated Knight upset the G1 Irish Champions Stakes at 25-1 last out two months ago. Earlier this year, he finished behind both Ulysses and Highland Reel. Three-time G1 winner has never raced longer than 1 5/16 miles.

Fanciful Angel finished second to Beach Patrol in both of his U.S. starts after winning a few minor stakes in Europe. Turned over to Brown before the Hirsch, that second place finish was his first start at this trip in 25 starts.

Hunt won a couple of G2 races, the Eddie Read and Del Mar Handicap, over the local strip this summer before a non-effort as the 2-1 second choice in the G2 John Henry at Santa Anita. He’ll be making his 12 furlong debut.

Itsinthepost won both the G2 San Luis Rey at Santa Anita and G2 Elkhorn and Keeneland earlier this year, making him a perfect in two tries at this distance. After a three race losing streak, including a second place finish in the Del Mar handicap, he took the John Henry as the 8-5 favorite. He’s winless in eight starts at Del Mar.

Oscar Performance tries older foes again after a third place finish when he wasn’t close to the early pace in the Hirsch. Look for jockey Jose Ortiz to be aggressive from his outside post and to utilize the speed he has that got him G1 tallies in the Juvenile Turf last year and both the Belmont Derby and Secretariat this season.

Sadler’s Joy finished off the board for the first time in five starts at this trip when fourth in the Hirsch off of a wide trip through the lane. Two back he got up in the nick of time to take his first G1 in the Sword Dancer at Saratoga.

Seventh Heaven finished fourth in the F&M Turf last year and has won just one of her four starts, a G2 at this distance, since. Far back in the Arc most recently, she appears to be a cut below the best Europe has to offer though has won three of seven starts at the trip.

Talismanic ships over for the sharp Andre Fabre off of a third place finish in a G2 in France. He’s won or placed in six of his starts at the trip but is winless in three G1 tries.

If I’m Right…

Highland Reel may defend his crown but it’s not happening if he plans to go flag-fall-to-that’s-all. Not with Oscar Performance in the race.

Live Longshot

Sadler’s Joy shows up almost every single time he runs and relishes this distance and tighter turned courses like this one. He should be a great price at around 18-1.
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Breeders Cup Betting News and Notes Saturday, November 4th, 2017 1 month 1 week ago #459201

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BC - Classic
By Anthony Stabile
VegasInsider.com

Distance: 1¼ miles
Purse: $6 million
Age: 3up
Time: 8:35 p.m. ET

The History

You knew this race was aptly named after the stretch run of the inaugural running when eventual winner Wild Again played bumper cars along with Slew o’ Gold and Gate Dancer. Ferdinand won the battle of the Kentucky Derby winners over Alysheba in 1987 before Alysheba claimed his own classic victory the following year.

In the final chapter of their brief, yet intense rivalry, Sunday Silence held off the desperate surge of Easy Goer to win in 1989. Jerry Bailey won three in a row, starting in 1993 with Arcangues, the longest priced winner in Breeders’ Cup history and ending with the great Cigar in 1995 who capped a perfect 10-for-10 season with a fantastic score. Awesome Again split rivals in deep stretch to win a wild one in 1998 over Silver Charm and Swain.

Tiznow gutted out two of the greatest wins over a pair of tough Europeans, Giant’s Causeway and Sakhee, in 2000 and 2001 respectively, making his trainer Jay Robbins and the great Charlie Whittingham the only two time winners of the race.

Volponi blew up the tote board, then the Pick 6 scandal, in 2002 with his win at 43-1. Ghostzapper set the stakes record with a gate-to-wire, tour de force victory in 2004. Curlin capped his Horse of the Year campaign in 2007 with a win before finishing fourth the following year on the synthetic surface at Santa Anita.

The great Zenyatta kept the undefeated dream alive with a remarkable last-to-first run in 2009 before falling a head short of Blame in the 2010 renewal and finishing her career with 19 wins from 20 starts. In 2014, Bayern made a left turn coming out of the gate before going gate-to-wire, holding off Toast of New York and California Chrome in another whale of a photo.

In 2015, American Pharoah capped off a historic, legendary season by winning the Triple Crown in the spring and Classic in the fall with a brilliant, gate-to-wire score. Just last year, Arrogate gave his trainer Bob Baffert a record three in a row when he ran passed California Chrome in the final strides.

It’s the Classic indeed!!!!

Favorites: 9 for 33 (278%)
Shortest: $3.40 (Cigar, 1995 & American Pharoah, 2015)
Highest: $269.20 (Arcangues, 1993) *Highest price in history of the Breeders’ Cup*
The champ is here? Yes. Arrogate will look to defend his crown and give his trainer Bob Baffert his fourth consecutive win in the event.

The Best

Defending champion Arrogate is the richest racehorse in the history of North America. A repeat here makes him the richest of all time and the sports’ first $20 million earner.

He won the Travers last year with the fastest ten furlongs in the 150-plus year history of Saratoga. He ran down former earnings leader and eventual Horse of the Year California Chrome in this last year. He won the inaugural Pegasus World Cup at Gulfstream in track record time in a common gallop. And he won the Dubai World Cup by passing every one of 13 rivals after he walked out of the starting gate in a legendary performance under Mike Smith, the winningest rider in Breeders’ Cup history.

Yet, despite the accolades and that four race, G1 streak one of the most impressive any horse has ever strung together, Arrogate will likely be the second choice come post time for his title defense after stubbing his toe twice this summer over this course.

Upon his return from Dubai, trainer Bob Baffert laid out a plan that included the G2 San Diego at Del Mar as a prep for the crown jewel in their summer meet, the G1 Pacific Classic. Run at 1 1/16 miles, Baffert figured he didn’t need Arrogate anywhere near 100 percent to get the money and to set him up for the final leg of a historic career. Baffert was wrong.

Arrogate broke slowly again and never got involved. He showed momentary interest that faded as soon as it began and finished fourth in a field of five, beating just one rival who had an equipment malfunction soon after the start.

After some deliberation, Baffert decided Arrogate would forge ahead to the Pacific Classic. He didn’t appear to be the same horse in his preparations and quickly started to wonder if the horse was still worn out from his desert journey or if the sometimes quirky Del Mar surface just wasn’t to his liking.

Those questions weren’t really answered in the Pacific Classic. He broke better and ran in spots but couldn’t quite muster his patented rally and fell a half-length short of his loose-on-the-lead stablemate Collected.

That race was 11 weeks ago. In the almost three months since, Arrogate seems to be rounding back to his old self and his final two workouts gave us a glimpse of the horse we knew from a year ago.

Gun Runner will be the Breeders’ Cup Classic favorite and looks to put his name right up there with some of the greats should he conquer his two toughest rivals to date – Arrogate and 10 furlongs.

Trained by Steve Asmussen, Gun Runner is a virtual machine, unless he encounters moisture in the track. In fact, his only pair of off the board finishes have come over tracks labeled sloppy.

Going nine furlongs or less on a dry track, Gun Runner is nearly impossible to beat. In fact, he’s lost just twice, in back-to-back starts last year when he was second in the G2 Pennsylvania Derby and G1 Dirt Mile. In all last season, he finished third in G1 Kentucky Derby after winning a couple of preps, was third in the Travers and capped off the year with his first G1 win in the Clark at Churchill Downs.

This year, a win in the G3 Razorback at Oaklawn was followed by his runner-up performance in the Dubai World Cup and a three race, G1 win streak of his own, starting with an easy, gate-to-wire tally by seven lengths at Churchill in the Stephen Foster.

Up at Saratoga for his last two, he sat just off the early pace to win the Whitney by over five lengths and Woodward by over 10 lengths against less than stellar fields all under regular rider Florent Geroux.

At 1¼ miles, however, the story changes a bit. Though third in the Derby, he never really threatened and raced evenly through the stretch. He finished 15 behind Arrogate in the Travers and had his rival dead to rights when he turned for home with a two-length lead in Dubai.

The Rest

Baffert sends out four runners in all in the Classic. He’ll not only saddle Arrogate but West Coast, Collected and Mubtaahij as well.

West Coast has strung together five wins in a row at three different distance over five different racetracks with four different running styles. After an entry level allowance/optional claiming win at Santa Anita, he took the Easy Goer from well off the pace on the Belmont Stakes undercard, raced in mid-pack before striding away late to win the G3 Los Alamitos Derby, went gate-to-wire, a la Arrogate in the Travers in a three-plus length tally then alternated on the lead before galloping home an over seven length victor in the Pennsylvania Derby at Parx. Javier Castellano rides for the first time.

Collected scored the biggest win of his career last out in the Pacific Classic when he used his early speed to steal it on the front end. A perfect-four-for-four this year since Baffert removed the blinkers, he’s won all seven of his starts on dry dirt in his career. Martin Garcia rides.

Mubtaahij made his first start for his new trainer a winning one when Baffert put a pair of blinkers on him and he responded with his first G1 tally in the Awesome Again, his first start since a fourth place finish in Dubai and first win in over two years. Drayden Van Dyke has the return call.

Coolmore and Aidan O’Brien will take another crack at the Classic, opting to run two three-year-olds, Churchill and War Decree.

A G1 winner at a mile, Churchill is winless in his last four, three against older rivals, including an off the board finish at the distance on turf, the only surface he’s raced over in a dozen starts. Ryan Moore rides.

War Decree won at 10 furlongs off of a nearly four month layoff when trying a synthetic surface for the first time in an Irish G3 most recently. Seamus Heffernan has the mount.

Pavel makes just the fifth start since his July 1st debut coming off a third place finish in the G1 Jockey Club Gold Cup. His rider Mario Gutierrez gave a curious ride, leaning on the favorite and now retired Keen Ice through the stretch, possibly costing himself a placing.

Earlier this year, Pavel broke his maiden on debut at Santa Anita before a fourth place finish in the G2 Jim Dandy at Saratoga and a win at Parx by six lengths in the Smarty Jones for trainer Doug O’Neill.

Gunnevera is the first Classic starter for trainer Antonio Sano, who was kidnapped not once but twice in his native Venezuela. A five time winner, he’ll be seeking his first G1 score and will be ridden by Edgard Zayas.

After winning three starts as a juvenile, including the G3 Delta Jackpot, Gunnevera won the G2 Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream this year. He was off the board in both the Derby and G1 Preakness before winning at minor stakes and finishing third in the Travers behind West Coast.

War Story winds up here after failing to crack the field for the Turf, his first preference. The Jorge Navarro charge Won the G2 Brooklyn going 12 furlongs on Belmont Stakes Day but is winless in three tries at this distance, including a next-to-last run in this last year. Jose Ortiz will ride.

Win the Space is still looking for his first stakes win off of a third place finish at 25-1 in the Awesome Again last out. He hasn’t won since taking a second level allowance/optional claimer back in May 2016. Joe Talamo rides for George Papaprodromou.

If I’m Right…

Most believe this race boils down to Gun Runner versus Arrogate. Let me put an end to the mystery. The Arrogate of old may be gone but if a version that is 90-95 percent of him shows up, this thing is what he’ll make with a win and that’s history. Gun Runner fans will argue he’s improved tremendously this year and they’re right. But improvement doesn’t help with distance limitations.

Live Longshot

Mubtaahij liked being blinkered and Bafferted last time out and should get a solid early pace to run into late. Look for 12-1 or more.
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Breeders Cup Betting News and Notes Saturday, November 4th, 2017 1 month 1 week ago #459349

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Breeders Cup Classic Horse-by-Horse Preview and Picks
By: Monique Vág
Covers.com

The 2017 Breeders’ Cup Classic at Del Mar features the rematch of the No. 1 and No. 2 ranked horses in the world, Arrogate and Gun Runner. Is it really a two-horse race or will one of the fringe horses provide a huge upset in one of the most prestigious dirt races in North America?

Here’s a look at the field for Saturday's Breeders' Cup Classic, according to gate:

1. Arrogate (Jockey: Mike Smith, odds 2-1): He’s by far the most successful and accomplished in the field winning seven of 10 races accounting for purse winnings surpassing the $17.3 million mark. I’m certainly not saying he needs the lead in this situation, but he races his best on the front end. Seeing as both Arrogate and Collected are Baffert trained and the two lone speed horses, I doubt a pace duel will ensue. That bodes well for Arrogate, who looks to likely wire the field over a surface at Del Mar he hasn’t found the most favorable.

2. War Decree (Seamie Heffernan, 30-1): He will be trying Lasix for the first time and while it’s common practice in North America, it can prove to be a huge adjustment to European horses racing with it for the first time. He only has one start off turf – a synthetic race last time out where he recorded a career best Beyer. In a quote regarding War Decree, the son of trainer Aidan O’Brien said, "War Decree has a lot of ability, but getting it out of him can be hard at times. He loved that surface and hard ground is what he needs.” While the newer surface at Del Mar isn’t as hard and speed favoring as it once was, he may find it to his liking.

3. Win the Space (Joe Talamo, 30-1): His only wins have come in the optional claiming ranks and there’s no surprise he’s almost always been double-digit odds throughout the stakes ranks. Racing at his absolute best, he can’t compete with this field and spotting them as many as 10-plus lengths early really eliminates all chances unless there’s a blistering pace, which isn’t likely. He will pass tired horses late but that’s all you can really ask from a horse that doesn’t match up favorably against the world’s best.

4. War Story (Jose Ortiz Jr., 30-1): He was never a factor in his last two starts, both Grade 1 races at Saratoga despite receiving quite a bit of play both days at the betting windows. He’s another long shot which hasn’t found much success within the graded stakes ranks, but it’s possible he has success against the competition due to his racing style. He’ll be up close, just off the pace, and may really appreciate the added distance. His best race was the G2 Brooklyn, which was run at a mile and a half.

5. Gun Runner (Florent Geroux, 9-5): Held the second position in the NTRA Poll of the top thoroughbred horses for what seemed like an eternity, whereas Arrogate fell to the second spot after his disappointing effort in the Pacific Classic. Gun Runner was very impressive in his last two outings in the Whitney and Woodward. The last time these two heavyweights met was in the Dubai World Cup where Gun Runner was left with a little bit too much work to do in deep stretch. If he has a clean run with no traffic and enough furlongs left to make up ground late, he has every shot at running down Arrogate. If not, the race is completely wide open for the bottom half of the exotic wagers with Arrogate looking like a clear winner.

6. Mubtaahij (Drayden Van Dyke, 12-1): Recently claimed after the Dubai World Cup and now being in the Baffert barn, this horse may be reinvigorated. His 10-race losing streak came to an end last time out in the Awesome Again Stakes, in large part to the equipment change of adding blinkers and facing a much weaker field. Last time, he put forth an effort similar to the one in the Awesome Again. It was the UAE Derby where he won very convincingly and disappointed at Churchill Downs in the Derby in his subsequent effort. He’s likely racing for fourth or fifth place.

7. Churchill (Ryan Moore, 15-1): What stands out to me in his form is running second to the likely winner of the Breeders’ Cup Turf race, Ulysses, over a less-than-ideal conditioned turf course. I can certainly look past the fact that he hasn’t raced over dirt before and the notion he may be best suited as a turf runner. Trainer Aidan O’Brien is the master at placing horses in their proper classifications to get the best efforts out of them. The issue with selecting this runner is that he’s been well beaten in every effort of 10 furlongs or longer. Long shot odds for a reason.

8. West Coast (Javier Castellano, 6-1): Could Baffert’s success with 3-year olds in the Classic continue as he goes for four in row (Bayern, American Pharoah, Arrogate)? This colt has won five straight and it’s nice to see that he’s shown improvements and progression on a race-to-race basis. He’s dominated the 3-year old division but facing the best of the older divisions may prove too tough. He’ll likely be close to the pace today, but how will he take to being pressured? Will he be asked along and encouraged to win the race from the front end? There are far too many questions and concerns to accept odds in the single-digit range.

9. Gunnevera (Edgardo Zayas, 30-1): This colt disappointed in both Triple Crown legs but it’s nice that he has rebounded after a solid performance in the Travers in August. He’s run into some trouble in both his efforts at this distance, but I do think he prefers racing longer. In the Travers, he was bumped at the start, shuffled back and was left with nearly an impossible task in the deep stretch to chase down the uncontested Gun Runner, who was left on the front end under no pressure.

10. Pavel (Mario Guiterrez, 20-1): I have mixed feelings after his second career start at Saratoga in the Jim Dandy Stakes. He really didn’t show much against Always Dreaming and Cloud Computing. He did hold his own last time out against older runners in Diversity and Keen Ice, which is nice to see. He’s lightly raced and we haven’t seen the best out of him yet. But asking this horse to hit the board in the Breeders’ Cup Classic seems like wishful thinking.

11. Collected (Martin Garcia, 6-1): He has wins at both 10 furlongs and a notable victory over this surface with a big win in the Pacific Classic, where he defeated a very questionable Arrogate. He meets again Arrogate on the exact track where we saw his worst performance and arguably the only time in his racing career Arrogate has shown serious vulnerability. Will Collected be leading? If he does, it’s almost certainly not going to be uncontested. A win against Grade 1 company and an off-form Arrogate isn’t enough to sell me.

Picks: 1. Arrogate 2. Gun Runner 3. War Story
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Breeders Cup Betting News and Notes Saturday, November 4th, 2017 1 month 1 week ago #459545

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At the Gate - Saturday
By Mike Dempsey
VegasInsider.com

Elate was one of my favorite picks on Friday’s Breeders’ Cup card but we had to settle for a little elation instead as she checked in fourth, but we still knocked down the recommended exacta for $46.80 and the trifecta which paid $147.20.

My second choice Forever Unbridled was the impressive winner of the Distaff with my fourth choice Abel Tasman rallying late to complete the exacta.

The day did not start well as my top pick in the Juvenile Fillies Turf (G1) Happily failed to fire while my third choice Rushing Fall ($8.00) got the job done.

I failed to use Battle of Midway ($30.40) in the Dirt Mile (G1) and we failed to cash anything.

We did get my top pick Mendelssohn home in the Juvenile Turf (G1) to the tune of $11.60 and he combined with Forever Unbridled for a nice daily double that paid $73.20.

We have nine more Breeders’ Cup races on a blockbuster 12-race card at Del Mar on Saturday and we have a good card at Aqueduct as well.

On Friday, I had five winners on top on the nine race card on pending day at The Big A.

As you can see below I am jumping back on the Arrogate bandwagon as I suspect Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert is going to have the colt ready to fire his best in the Classic.

My Best Plays Report for Saturday includes my nine strongest plays from Aqueduct and Del Mar.

Now would be a great time to purchase my Monthly Package for just $99.95. You get an entire month of action from Aqueduct, my weekend Best Plays Reports as well as my Breeders’ Cup Report.

To purchase my Aqueduct, Best Plays, and Breeders’ Cup Reports for Saturday click here.

Here is the opening race from Aqueduct to get the day off to a good start:

AQU Race 1 Clm $16,000N2L (12:15 ET)
#4 The Great Samurai 2-1
#6 Façade 7-2
#2 Chapin 5-2
#7 The Orphan Miracle 5-1

Analysis: The Great Samurai drops into an easier spot her tagged for $16,000 in his second start off the claim by the Toscano barn. The barn claimed this guy for $16,000 two back out of a game second place finish and he was sixth last out on the cut back to 6 1/2 furlongs. He is back in at a mile and he fits well in this spot for an underrated barn with recent claims.

Facade was not a threat in a seventh-place finish last out against $25,000 non-winners of two in a seventh-place finish. He makes his third start off a 4 1/2 month break here and catches an easier group here. His maiden score came going a one turn mile at Gulfstream Park back in February.

Wagering
WIN: #4 to win at 2-1 or better.
EX: 4,6 / 2,4,6,7
TRI: 4,6 / 2,4,6,7 / 1,2,4,6,7

Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Aqueduct:

AQU Race 9 The Chelsey Flower (4:36 ET)
#9 Golden Orb 6-1
#12 Brattata 7-2
#7 Go Noni Go 10-1
#2 Night Time Lady 5-1

Analysis: Golden Orb tracked thee early pace after getting bumped around early and weakened in the stretch to finish sixth in the Natalma (G1) at Woodbine at a mile in her first start against winners. She broke her maiden in her debut two back going long on the grass at the Spa. She is out of a stakes placed Victory Gallop mare that has dropped two other winners including stakes winner Finley'sluckycharm ($593,368).

Brattata is still a maiden but probably would have won last out with a better trip. The Brown trainee tracked the early pace and came up the inside but ran out of room, stuck behind foes, finally angling to the outside too late. The $250,000 Ocala purchase is out of the stakes winner Mama Nadine ($88,105) who has dropped three winners including one turf winner, top earner stakes winner Royal Son ($269,135).

Wagering
WIN: #9 to win at 4-1 or better.
EX: 9,12 / 2,7,9,12
TRI: 9,12 / 2,7,9,12 / 1,2,7,9,12

Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Del Mar:

DMR Race 12 The BC Classic G1 (1:00 PT)
#1 Arrogate 2-1
#8 West Coast 6-1
#11 Collected 4-1
#5 Gun Runner 9-5

Analysis: Arrogate is the defending champ and much has been made about his two "disappointing losses" after winning eight in a row including this race last year and then the world's two richest races. But , he really only tossed in a clunker in the San Diego 'Cap (G2) upon his return from Dubai and off a four-month layoff. Yes, he lost the pacific Classic (G1) to his stablemate Collected but he was only beaten a half-length and earned a 114 Beyer. Now he comes back off a 77-day break for Baffert two is 28% winners with runners coming back off a 61-180 day layoff. I'm not completely sold he does not like the Del mar surface and when you have Baffert and jockey Mike Smith in your corner I have to think he is going to return to his best here. The colt has worked sharply since his last outing and is primed to give Baffert his fourth Classic in a row.

West Coast faces older her but don't forget Baffert's three Classic wins were each with three-year-olds. Seven of the last 18 editions have been won by sophomores. The colt has won five in a row and trounced the field in the Travers (G1) and Pennsylvania Derby (G1). He needs to step up a few more lengths to get close to his stablemate, but looks capable.

Collected is Baffert again. He wired the field in the Pacific Classic beating Arrogate. He has run four consecutive career top speed figs. He draws the outside post and he is not going to get away with an easy lead here.

Gun Runner is likely going off as the favorite and hard to knock his three Grade 1 wins since getting run down by Arrogate late in the Dubai World Cup (G1). He rolled over the field in those three starts but really did not beat much. He earned a career top in his Woodward win. Three exited that race to run back, runner up Rally Cry was sixth in the Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1), third Neolithic was second in the Fayette (G2) and fifth place finisher Discreet Love was fourth in the Pa Derby Championship. He is coming into this race as sharp as ever but tough to get too excited about backing him at 9-5 or 2-1 in this spot.

Wagering
WIN: #1 to win at 2-1 or better.
EX: 1,8 / 1,5,8,11
TRI: 1,8 / 1,5,8,11 / 1,5,6,8,11

Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.

Aqueduct
R4: #8 Twofer 8-1
R5: #9 Mr. President 10-1
R8: #2 Old Dubai 8-1
R9: #7 Go Noni Go 10-1
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