NHL betting trends, odds and predictions for Sunday, November 19th, 2017 from various handicappers and websites
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Islanders won their last three games with Carolina; road teams won four of last five series games. New York is won three of its last four visits to Raleigh. Over is 6-3 in last nine series games. Islanders are 5-3 in last eight games overall, 2-3 in last five road games. Over is 8-2 in last ten series games. Hurricanes won four of last six games, are 2-3 in last five home games- they are 0-2 if they played night before. Carolina’s last three games went over.
Road team won seven of last nine Colorado-Detroit games; Avalanche won three of last four visits to Detroit. Under is 6-3-1 in last ten series games. Colorado lost four of last five games, both overall and on road; they’re 1-3 if they played night before. Last 11 Avalanche games went over the total. Red Wings won six of last nine games; they won three of last four at home. Under is 7-3 in their last ten games.
Home side won seven of last eight Ottawa-Ranger games; Senators lost three of last four visits to Manhattan. Over is 3-0-2 in last five series games. Ottawa is 3-5 in its last eight games, they are 4-9 on road. Six of their last nine games went over the total. New York won its last five home games, but lost last two games, 6-3/2-0, both on road. Over is 8-2 in Rangers’ last ten games.
Florida won five of last seven games with Anaheim; they split last four games in the Pond. Over is 4-2-2 in last eight series games. Panthers lost seven of last ten games; they’re 2-3 in last five road games. Five of last six Florida games stayed under the total. Ducks lost five of their last seven games; they’re 2-4 in their last six home games. Over is 5-5 in their last ten games.
Kings lost four of their last five games; they’re 6-2 on the road this season. Last three LA games stayed under the total. Las Vegas is 7-1 at home; they’re 3-6 in last nine games overall. Over is 8-2 in Knights’ last ten games.
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NHL Picks and Betting Tips
By Parker Michaels
MORNING LINE REPORT
We had over twelve hours of consecutive hockey yesterday thanks to staggered start times throughout the afternoon and don’t you wish every Saturday could be like that? It was a lot of fun bouncing from game to game even though we got off to a rough start dropping a couple of early starts with Edmonton and New Jersey.
Hopefully you were paying attention to Twitter yesterday as I ended up adding three plays later in the morning on the Flames, Capitals and Leafs who were all victorious and salvaged a 4-4 overall day for a very tiny profit. I also gave out the Kings as a recommended play which I know some of you were able to get on but I won’t be including that win in my overall record. Los Angeles pulled a fast one and rolled Darcy Kuemper out onto the ice in pre-game warm-ups instead of the expected Jonathan Quick and I missed the announcement until about ten minutes before puck drop. The market moved the line too far after Kuemper’s confirmation and I tweeted out the Kings were worth a play at the current line of -123 if anyone was around but I don’t think it’s right to include a game in my record that only a few people would have been able to get. That’s also why you always see me tweet out a warning that a pick is coming within 3-5 or 5-7 minutes so that you’ll be ready to fire and get the same number.
When you’re giving out picks to anyone – whether you run a service or you give out free plays – you should only be giving out plays that are:
1) Widely available at a number of major sportsbooks and
2) Are lines that are currently available.
If you’re giving out prop bets that are specific to a particular book then as long as you are telling people where to bet them, that’s fine. Otherwise, you should only be giving out plays that are currently available.
It’s a huge pet peeve of mine when some of these guys on Twitter think they’re helping people by posting their “free” plays. I saw someone yesterday give out the Washington Capitals ML at -115 which is fine – except that line was available absolutely nowhere at the minute he posted it. The lowest the Caps were available at ANY reputable sportsbook was -121 and that -115 line wasn’t to be found anywhere for at least the previous 15 minutes. Giving out lines only you can get from your “special bookie” isn’t helping anyone. You’re not doing your followers a service by giving out lines that they can’t bet, in fact, all you’re doing is trying to blow your own horn. If that’s all your goal is, then fine, but when you pretend like you’re doing it to help people then don’t be surprised when people don’t take you seriously.
To make matters worse, he gave out a line on another game at the same time as the Caps which saw a line move within a minute of him posting. The move gave his play better odds and he posted within a couple of minutes that the game was “actually” those better odds.
Anyway, that’s the end of my Sunday morning rant (for now) so let’s get onto today’s card. We only had one line available early this morning but all are open now and it looks like we’re going to be eating a lot of chalk today. I wrote the previews below prior to lines opening and then included an update at the end of each one.
NEW YORK ISLANDERS @ CAROLINA HURRICANES
NY Islanders – Jaroslav Halak (expected)
Carolina – Cam Ward (expected)
NY Islanders – Kulemin (out), Clutterbuck (questionable)
Carolina – Stempniak (out)
The New York Islanders became just the third team this season to knock off the Tampa Bay Lightning in regulation on Saturday night as they continue to quietly surprise teams this year with an all-around solid offense getting contributions up and down the lineup. The Isles have six players with at least 14 points and only Tampa Bay has more productive balance with seven players at that mark.
Doug Weight shook up his lines to spread out his defensive forwards so Tampa couldn’t match lines as easily and it worked beautifully through the first 40 minutes as the Isles shut down the Lightning high-powered attack and built a 3-0 lead. The Bolts scored a pair of breakaway goals in 13 seconds to make things interesting late but the Isles hung on thanks to a 36-save effort from Thomas Greiss.
Jaroslav Halak should get the start today on the back-to-back and while he’s made the more spectacular highlight reel saves this year, he’s been prone to letting in too many softies as Greiss has been the more consistent of the two.
Cal Clutterbuck missed last night’s game with an illness and is questionable for tonight.
Carolina didn’t allow a shot on net for over 17 minutes to begin the game in Buffalo last night and Sebastian Aho scored for the third consecutive game to break a 1-1 tie with just over five minutes remaining as the Canes knocked off the Sabres 3-1. Carolina returns home to open a four game homestand and will be looking to avenge their 6-4 loss at New York this past Thursday.
Cam Ward should get the start today and that’s why I have this number so low on Carolina. Ward has played well so far this year but is a steep decline from Darling. I also think the Islanders are still being undervalued in the market so we’ll look to take advantage of this yet again. New York is good down to +110 but I don’t imagine it will ever get that low today.
COLORADO AVALANCHE @ DETROIT RED WINGS
Colorado – Jonathan Bernier (expected)
Detroit – Jimmy Howard (confirmed)
Colorado – Nemeth (out)
Detroit – Frk (questionable), DeKeyser (in)
The Colorado Avalanche lost for the fourth time in five games with a 5-2 loss at Nashville last night. The Avs had plenty of early chances with 11 total minutes on the powerplay in just the first period but couldn’t execute and once they failed to score on a five minute major penalty the Predators used that momentum to cruise to an easy victory. A couple of garbage time goals by the Avs made the score a bit more respectable than it really was.
The Avs have looked dominant at home with a 6-1-1 record but been a different team on the road with just a 3-7-0 record including 1-6-0 in their last seven. Jonathan Bernier is expected to get the start in net tonight on the back-to-back.
The Detroit Red Wings picked up their second consecutive convincing win on home ice with Friday’s 3-1 victory over Buffalo. The Wings dominated the game from start to finish despite the tight score and have turned things on as of late. Ever since captain Henrik Zetterberg stated in a post-game interview, “we aren’t good enough to win games” the Wings have gone 6-2-1 and look like a different team.
They’ll look a little bit more different tonight as Danny DeKeyser is set to return to the lineup. DeKeyser hasn’t played since the third game of the season and will give the defense a big boost as he’s one of their best puck movers. Last year he struggled when forced into a top pairing role but with the addition of Trevor Daley who is playing excellent and the resurgent Mike Green, DeKeyser shouldn’t feel as much pressure to do everything himself.
Jimmy Howard will get the start in net and he’s been incredibly solid to begin the season. Howard has the third best save percentage in the league at .931 and the sixth best Goals-Saved-Above-Average (GSAA) at +9.65.
We’re starting to get to that point in the season where this year’s stats start to matter and you can start to believe some of what you are seeing. I have no problem admitting when I’m wrong about something and my preseason opinion of Detroit appears to be flat out wrong. I said the Wings would be the worst team in the Eastern Conference but this team isn’t as terrible as I thought. Don’t get me wrong, they’re no powerhouse by any means, but their advanced stats are very middle of the league right now and Detroit isn’t the worst team in the league by any means. Dare I say it, but they could actually be a playoff bubble team as long as Howard holds up in net. They play a speed game with some great young players and the veteran leader Zetterberg just keeps on rolling.
I suppose after I pump their tires a bit they’ll go out and lay an egg today as that’s usually how it seems to work, but I’m expecting value when this line opens this morning and we’ll very likely be on the Wings. Which is frankly quite disgusting since I just said on Friday that the Wings shouldn’t be laying over 50 cents to anyone and now we’re likely backing them even higher. [UPDATE: This line opened short as I expected so we’ll be playing the Wings today]
OTTAWA @ NEW YORK RANGERS
Ottawa – Craig Anderson (confirmed)
NY Rangers – Henrik Lundqvist (confirmed)
Ottawa – MacArthur (out), Z. Smith (out), Wideman (out)
NY Rangers – no significant injuries
The Ottawa Senators dropped a pair of home games upon their return from Sweden including yesterday’s 3-2 overtime loss to Arizona. Now the Sens will head out on a tough three game road trip to New York, Washington and Columbus.
The Senators sit third in the Atlantic division with an 8-4-6 record but this team looks very similar to last year in that they’re somehow winning games despite sitting in the lower half of the league in just about every advanced stat. Ottawa has had a home heavy schedule to this point and even though they are 3-0-1 in true road games (not including the two wins over Colorado in Sweden), life should get a lot tougher as ten of their next 11 will be away from home with that lone home game being on a back-to-back.
The New York Rangers dropped a pair of road games at Chicago and Columbus after their six game win streak but now return home where they’ve won five in a row. The Rangers results have gone as their powerplay goes and the two recent losses aren’t surprising when you see the team went a combined 0-for-6 with the man advantage. Ottawa only commits 8.2 penalty minutes per game which is good for the 11th best rate in the league but their penalty kill is only the 21st ranked unit at just 78.85% so there’s a good chance the Rangers will get on the board with their special teams today.
This will be their first meeting since the Senators bounced the Rangers from the playoffs in the second round last spring in a series where NY was the better team for most of the games but a couple of late collapses led to their downfall.
I’m expecting to see some value on the Rangers today and the spot sets up as a strong situational advantage for them so we’ll look to jump on them when a line opens. [UPDATE: Line has opened well short and has been bet up some so I missed a better number here, but there’s still value so we’ll be on the Rangers]
FLORIDA PANTHERS @ ANAHEIM DUCKS
Florida – Roberto Luongo (expected)
Anaheim – John Gibson/Reto Berra (unknown)
Florida – Vrbata (questionable)
Anaheim – Kesler (out), Eaves (out), Getzlaf (out), Kase (out), Fowler (out), Lindholm (probable)
The Florida Panthers put forth another strong effort through the first 20 minutes yesterday in Los Angeles but were stymied by Darcy Kuemper who made 14 saves in the opening period. After that, the Cats couldn’t generate much offensively and were eventually wore down by the Kings.
Florida has traveled a lot of miles recently as this will be their sixth road game in their last seven overall and tonight’s game will be not just a back-to-back but also their third in four days and fourth in six.
Radim Vrbata took a puck to the mouth early in the first period and was down in a bloody mess. He left the game and did not return. Boughner said he’ll be re-evaluated this morning but it sounded like it would be 50/50 at best that he would play today. Vrbata’s absence would leave a fair-sized hole for a team with very little depth.
The Anaheim Ducks wrap up the early portion of their schedule this season which I had circled as “easier”. Beginning with tonight’s game, the Ducks will play their toughest stretch of the season with nine games over 14 days, including an extended road trip out East.
Anaheim will play three sets of back-to-backs during this upcoming stretch and will head into it with Reto Berra as the backup. Ryan Miller was on the ice yesterday taking some shots from Ondrej Kase but neither has been cleared to return to practice. Carlyle hopes Miller will be able to return sometime next week but that means Berra is likely to start either today or tomorrow.
Cam Fowler practiced with the team for the first time since his gruesome leg injury and is near a return. Recovery went excellent and Fowler should rejoin the team as early as later this week. When Fowler returns, it will be the first time this season the Ducks has their full arsenal of talented defensemen on the ice.
Hampus Lindholm missed Wednesday’s game with a lower-body injury but is expected to be in the lineup tonight.
We’ll want to get an update on Vrbata today and a confirmation on the Ducks goalie, but I’m expecting to find some value on Anaheim today. We’ll look to jump on them if the price is right. [UPDATE: There’s some value on Anaheim right now but we’re going to wait for a goaltender confirmation before playing this. If Gibson starts, we’ll be on the Ducks]
LOS ANGELES KINGS @ VEGAS GOLDEN KNIGHTS
Los Angeles – Jonathan Quick (expected)
Vegas – Malcolm Subban/Maxime Lagace (unknown)
Los Angeles – Gaborik (out), Carter (out)
Vegas – Sbisa (out)
The Los Angeles Kings smothered Florida over the final two periods yesterday and Darcy Kuemper was solid in net as the Kings earned a 4-0 win to salvage the final game of a disappointing homestand.
Rookie Jonny Brodzinski scored his first NHL goal to become the fifth Kings rookie this year to put his first NHL tally and the line changes by Stevens seemed to work as Tyler Toffoli, demoted to the third line, woke up with a goal and an assist.
The Kings will make their first trip to Vegas this season and being on a back-to-back actually might be helpful in this situation as they won’t have time to go out and enjoy the local scene like many other teams have fallen to already this year. Jonathan Quick is also expected back in goal which will help but it is still a tough spot being their fourth game in six days.
The Vegas Golden Knights finally got some good news when goaltender Malcolm Subban was activated off injured reserve this weekend but whether he’s ready to play tonight is still up in the air. He went through a full practice yesterday but Gallant, who said he knows who’s going to start, isn’t telling us until later today. We’ll do our best to find out beforehand but either way I think we’ll get some value on the Kings tonight. Vegas has been lights out on home ice but the Kings won’t be sitting around like other teams have been so I’m not sure Vegas will have that extra added edge at home for this one. [UPDATE: My number was with Subban starting so looks like we’ll be adding the Kings tonight, as well. Up to -133 is my recommendation and if Lagace starts this line is good up to about -140]
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