NHL betting trends, odds and predictions for Saturday, November 18th, 2017 from various handicappers and websites
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Home side won last five Calgary-Philly games; Flames lost three of last four games in this building. Under is 6-2 in last eight series games. Calgary won five of its last seven games; they’re 4-3 on road. Flames’ last five games went over the total. Flyers lost last three games, scoring total of two goals; under is 6-1 in their last seven games. Philly lost three of its last four games.
Ottawa won four of last six games with Arizona; over is 6-2 in last eight series games. Coyotes are 2-3 in their last five games in this building. Arizona is 3-18 this season, 2-11 on road; they lost five of last six games. Under is 6-1 in their last seven games. Senators are 4-5 in last nine games overall, 3-4 in last seven at home; Over is 6-2 in their last eight home games.
Edmonton outscored Dallas 17-7 in winning last three series games; all three games went over the total. Oilers lost three of last four visits to Texas. Edmonton lost three of its last four games; they’re 2-2 in last four road tilts. Under is 5-2 in their last seven games. Dallas Stars lost their last three games (over 3-0), outscored 15-5; Dallas won two of its last three home games.
Devils lost six of last eight games with Winnipeg; they’re 1-4 in last five visits to Manitoba. Under is 8-1-1 in last ten series games. New Jersey lost five of last seven games overall, three of last four on road; four of their last five games stayed under the total. Winnipeg won three in row, seven of last nine games; they won four of last five at home. Under is 4-1 in their last five games.
Kings won six of their last eight games with Florida; under is 5-2-3 in last ten series games. Panthers lost four of last five games in Staples Center. Florida won three of its last four games; they split last four road games. Four of their last five games stayed under the total. Los Angeles lost its last four games, all at home, outscored 12-6; their last three games stayed under the total.
Chicago won its last seven games with Pittsburgh; they hammered the Penguins 10-1 back on October 5th. Under is 5-1-2 in last eight series games. Blackhawks won their last three games in Steel City. Chicago are 4-3 in last five games overall, 2-3 in last five road games. Last three ********* games went over total. Penguins won their last two games after a 2-6 skid; under is 5-3 in their last eight games.
Islanders lost their last seven games with Tampa Bay; under is 4-1 in last five series games. New York lost four of last five games in this building. Islanders are 5-3 in last eight games overall, 2-3 in last five road games. Over is 8-2 in their last ten games. Lightning won their last five games overall; they’re 3-2 in last five home tilts. Four of their last five games went over the total.
Carolina won its last three games, outscoring Sabres 10-4; home side won six of last eight series games. Over is 5-2-3 in last ten series games. Hurricanes lost six of their last nine games; they lost three of last four on road. Last three Carolina games went over the total. Buffalo lost its las four games, outscored 14-7; they split their last four home games. Under is 4-1 in their last five games.
Canadiens won nine of last ten games with Toronto; Leafs won last meeting 4-3 in OT Oct 14th. Under is 4-2 in last six series games. Maple Leafs lost four of last five games in this building. Toronto won its last five games, with three of the five in OT/SO; their last three games stayed under total. Leafs are 2-3 in their last five road games. Canadiens lost three of last four games, all at home; five of their last six games stayed under the total.
Washington won its last five games with Minnesota; over is 3-0-1 in last four series games. Wild lost four of last five games in this building. Minnesota won its last four games, outscoring foes 13-4 (under 3-1); they won last two road games 1-0/3-0. Washington won its last four games at home; they’re 2-3 in last five games overall. Under is 5-2 in last seven series games.
Nashville won its last seven games with Colorado; over is 8-2 in last ten series games. Colorado lost its last four games in Music City. Avalanche lost three of its last four games, both overall and on road; their last ten games all went over the total. Nashville won five of its last six games, but split last four home games. Five of last six Predator games went over the total.
St Louis won five of its last six games with Vancouver; under is 4-1 in last five series games. Blues lost three of last five games in this building. St Louis is 7-3 in its last ten games, 3-1 in last four road games (under 3-1). Canucks lost six of their last nine games overall, four of last five at home. Six of their last nine games stayed under the total.
Bruins won their last three games with San Jose; three of last four series games stayed under the total. Boston lost three of its last five games in the Shark Tank. Bruins lost four of their last five games, both overall/on road; three of their last four games stayed under the total. Sharks won six of their last eight games but lost two of last three at home; nine of their last ten games stayed under the total.
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NHL Picks and Betting Tips
By Parker Michaels
MORNING LINE REPORT
We gave one back last night as it turns out Buffalo really is that awful. Detroit completely dominated the Sabres despite the score being tied 1-1 in the third period and it never really felt like Buffalo had a chance all night. It was a good bet though as the Wings still shouldn’t be 50-cent favorites over anyone in this league and the market confirmed that by driving that line down throughout the day.
The Columbus number never got low enough for us to jump in which was too bad as they shut down the Rangers behind another stellar performance by Sergei Bobrovsky. Can we finally anoint this guy as the best goaltender in the world yet or does he need to win another Vezina before that’s possible? Carey Price gets all the media love and while he’s personally my favorite goaltender in the league, Bobrovsky is the highest rated goaltender in my player ratings for a reason.
Onto a busy Saturday where we have a massive 13-game card highlighted by several early starts that are well spaced throughout the afternoon to take us right into the evening games. Although would it have killed the NHL to schedule a game or two at the :30 mark of the hour rather than every game on the hour? It’s incredibly annoying to have multiple games on at once and every one sitting in an intermission at the same time.
We’ll going to change things up a bit today with this huge card as I want to make sure we get this up for you guys early enough to get the best lines. Today’s previews below will only highlight the injury situation for each team in addition to any significant news I feel is worth sharing. If you have other questions about any of the games today feel free to hit me up on social media.
CALGARY FLAMES @ PHILADELPHIA FLYERS
Calgary – Mike Smith (confirmed)
Philadelphia – Brian Elliott (confirmed)
Calgary – Tkachuk (out)
Philadelphia – MacDonald (out), Gudas (out)
Mike Smith will be back in the crease for the Calgary Flames after missing a game with an upper-body injury. Smith fully practiced yesterday without issue and is ready to go.
Matthew Tkachuk was punished for his gentle love tap on the leg of Detroit’s Luke Witkowski. Tkachuk was assessed a major penalty for spearing and a game misconduct which seemed quite excessive as it really wasn’t anything near that bad. The NHL Department of Player Safety had to try and save face though and back up their referee’s decisions as is often the case and suspended Tkachuk for one game, which will be today.
Philadelphia will be without their own super-pest as Radko Gudas will miss today’s game and several more once he has a phone hearing with the NHL’s DPOS on Sunday. Gudas received a major penalty and a game misconduct for a vicious two-handed hack down on the back of Winnipeg’s Mathieu Perreault. It was pretty brutal and if you haven’t seen it I’ll tweet out the video later this morning on my Twitter. Gudas was scheduled to have an in-person hearing but waived his right in favor of the phone hearing. When the NHL offers an in-person hearing it means business and gives them the right to issue a suspension of at least five games. Gudas is a repeat offender and I have a feeling the NHL is going to throw the book at this guy and rightfully so. I’ll be surprised if this is anything less than ten games and that’s going to be a significant blow to the Flyers as he’s actually quite a useful player on the ice for them.
Brian Elliott will get the start against his former team so no doubt he’ll be pretty pumped up to show the Flames brass they made a mistake.
This should be a great game and is the perfect way to kick off the busy afternoon. Calgary will be out to atone for Wednesday’s embarrassing 8-2 loss at Detroit and the Flyers have lost three in a row so will be getting desperate for a win. We’ll see where this line opens but I’m not particularly excited about backing either side here.
ARIZONA COYOTES @ OTTAWA SENATORS
Arizona – Antti Raanta (likely)
Ottawa – Mike Condon (confirmed)
Arizona – Chychrun (out), Hjalmarsson (out)
Ottawa – MacArthur (out), Z. Smith (out), Wideman (out), Karlsson (probable)
Arizona finally earned their first regulation win of the season and will now look to snap another streak by trying to win two games in a row for the first time this season. I haven’t seen confirmation of Raanta starting but would imagine Tocchet would stick with his starter who just earned the biggest win of the season. Defenseman Niklas Hjalmarsson will remain out today although Tocchet said there’s a chance he could play Monday at Toronto.
Mike Condon will start in net for Ottawa who will be without defenseman Chris Wideman “for weeks” after suffering a torn hamstring. Ben Harpur was recalled and should draw into the lineup and honestly this should be considered an upgrade for the Sens. Harpur actually traveled to Sweden with the team last week and played in both games and looked pretty good. I think he is NHL-ready now so hopefully Boucher gives him a regular chance to show what he can do.
Erik Karlsson missed practice yesterday and the world stopped for a brief moment until Boucher reassured everyone that it was just a day off for him to rest his “foot or ankle or whatever you want to call it”. I listed him as probable above but there shouldn’t be any worry about him today.
This line opened a bit high but an overnight move has brought it down closer to where it should be although I wouldn’t be surprised if it still dropped a bit more. Arizona at +172 or better would be our target here but as of now this will be a pass.
EDMONTON OILERS @ DALLAS STARS
Edmonton – Cam Talbot (expected)
Dallas – Kari Lehtonen (confirmed)
Edmonton – Sekera (out), Slepyshev (out)
Dallas – Methot (out)
Edmonton has played better on the road this year so should be happy to begin a five game trip as they continue to look to get on track. For some reason the Oilers have been able to play a more defensively responsible game on the road whereas at home they seem to run-and-gun with teams and try to simply outscore them with too many cute plays. They had looked a bit better recently which is why Thursday’s 4-1 loss to the Blues was disappointing. After games at Dallas and St. Louis the schedule eases up some with games against Detroit, Buffalo, Boston and Arizona so this would be a good time for the Oilers to get on a bit of a run.
Andrej Sekera has started skating with the team and will travel with them for this trip. His recovery has been going well and he’s still on schedule for an early to mid-December return. His loss was underrated by most I felt and if Edmonton can just hang on until he’s back it will make a significant difference.
Dallas went 0-2-1 on their road trip and now return home in a sour mood. This will be their fourth game in six days and with Kari Lehtonen getting the start in net, the Oilers should actually be small road chalk in my opinion. Ben Bishop hasn’t put up very good numbers yet this year but the drop-off from him to Lehtonen is so significant that it drastically changes the line.
Marc Methot returned to practice on Friday but left after just 15 minutes and will miss his fifth straight game today. Brett Ritchie was a healthy scratch on Thursday but Hitchcock confirmed he’ll be back in the lineup today.
The Stars have been a heartbreaker for us so far this year as we’re 2-6 backing them. I’m terrified to finally go against them thinking this will be the day where they put it all together but the value is too strong to ignore so we’ll back the Oilers today in a game where both teams should be fairly desperate.
NEW JERSEY DEVILS @ WINNIPEG JETS
New Jersey – Cory Schneider (confirmed)
Winnipeg – Connor Hellebuyck (confirmed)
New Jersey – Johansson (out)
Winnipeg – no significant injuries
New Jersey continues their four game road trip after splitting the first two. The Devils lost 1-0 in overtime at Toronto on Thursday in a game that saw the return on top center Travis Zajac.
Cory Schneider will get the start again today against Connor Hellebuyck in what should be a heck of a goaltending duel as both starters are near the top of the league in several categories.
Marcus Johansson did not travel with the team for this trip and there’s still no timetable for his return from a concussion.
Winnipeg wraps up a three game homestand today after winning the first two games. The Jets will then head out to a lengthy four game trip that seems them go to Nashville then California. With the early afternoon start this should almost feel like a getaway day game and I’m expecting a lower scoring game so the under 5.5 is probably worth a look here.
This line opened a bit high on Winnipeg and has come down a touch but there’s still some value on New Jersey here. This looks like a pretty good spot for the Devils so we’re comfortable locking them in today. They’re good down to +132.
FLORIDA PANTHERS @ LOS ANGELES KINGS
Florida – Roberto Luongo (likely)
Los Angeles – Jonathan Quick (expected)
Florida – no significant injuries
Los Angeles – Gaborik (out), Carter (out)
Florida continues their three game trek through California after Thursday’s surprising 2-0 shutout at San Jose and has now won two in a row.
The Panthers are fairly healthy but have a couple of minor players nicked up in Derek MacKenzie and Jared McCann although McCann has looked good in practice the last couple days and could return today. Florida begins a back-to-back here so haven’t seen who will start in net although I imagine it will be Luongo coming off the shutout last game.
The Los Angeles Kings have lost four in a row all on their home ice and today’s game will conclude the five game homestand. The Kings are finally really feeling the loss of Jeff Carter and Stevens will try to shake things up today looking for a spark. Tyler Toffoli will be dropped to the third line while Trevor Lewis will jump up onto the second line with Tanner Pearson and Adrian Kempe. Not sure I like this move but things are definitely a bit stale lately so some kind of change is needed. If it wakes Toffoli up a bit then it will be a good thing.
Jonathan Quick was first off the ice in yesterday’s practice which generally indicates he’ll be the starter today as the Kings also open a back-to-back. Los Angeles almost always goes with the starter in the first half and the backup in the second game so nothing surprising here.
This line is exactly where it should be which is unfortunate because I really like the Kings here today. It’s going to be a pass based on the current number but if this drops anywhere below the bottom range of -138 I’ll be adding LA.
CHICAGO BLACKHAWKS @ PITTSBURGH PENGUINS
Chicago – Corey Crawford (likely)
Pittsburgh – Matt Murray (expected)
Chicago – Hossa (out), Keith (probable)
Pittsburgh – Hunwick (out)
The biggest storyline in this game will be Pittsburgh’s chance at revenge after getting thumped 10-1 in what was the Hawks season opener. The Penguins were on a back-to-back that night though and Antti Niemi was the starter. Pittsburgh is now back home where there are 6-0-1 and Matt Murray is expected to be in net. Murray allowed six goals in relief of Niemi in that game but he’s 11-4-0 since then and is a staggering 40-6-4 on home ice.
Duncan Keith has missed three consecutive practices this week but Quenneville said yesterday that the defenseman was much better now and will be fine to play today.
I thought this line opened short but an overnight move has taken it even lower which I completely disagree with. We’ve got some pretty big value on the Pens today in my opinion and we’ll happily lock them in as a play.
NEW YORK ISLANDERS @ TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING
NY Islanders – Jaroslav Halak/Thomas Greiss (unknown)
Tampa Bay – Andrei Vasilevskiy/Peter Budaj (unknown)
NY Islanders – Kulemin (out)
Tampa Bay – no significant injuries
The Islanders open a back-to-back tonight and no word whether it will be Greiss or Halak but there’s not a huge difference in the line move with one over the other. New York is quietly playing pretty solid hockey and their second scoring line of Matthew Barzal and Jordan Eberle has been a big reason why.
Tampa Bay continues to roll and look unbeatable right now but coming off a blowout win and looking forward to a few days off after this one maybe, just maybe, we see a bit of a flat effort from them tonight.
That probably seems pretty unlikely but hey, I have to give you some reason to have faith in the Isles here because this line is a shade high and we’ve backing the road pups. New York is good down to +155.
CAROLINA HURRICANES @ BUFFALO SABRES
Carolina – Scott Darling/Cam Ward (unknown)
Buffalo – Chad Johnson (expected)
Carolina – Stempniak (out), Kruger (probable)
Buffalo – Josefson (out), Bogosian (out), Ristolainen (out)
No line available here yet and we’ll have to wait on the goaltending announcements. Carolina opens a back-to-back here so even though Cam Ward has played very well so far, my number would significantly drop if he gets the nod. Chad Johnson is expected in net for Buffalo after Robin Lehner went last night.
Marcus Kruger was out with an illness but is back with the team now and expected to be good to go for tonight.
TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS @ MONTREAL CANADIENS
Toronto – Frederik Andersen (expected)
Montreal – Charlie Lindgren (confirmed)
Toronto – Matthews (questionable)
Montreal – Hemsky (out), Lehkonen (out), Schlemko (out), Pacioretty (), Drouin (), Mitchell (), Benn ()
Toronto snapped a 14-game losing streak at the Bell Centre with a 4-3 win here last month so we can finally throw that narrative out the window. The Leafs have won five in a row and four of those without Auston Matthews.
Matthews has been practicing with the team this week but still doesn’t feel like he’s back to 100% and says he’s likely a game0time decision tonight. We’ll see what happens this morning and if anything official is confirmed but I’m expecting him to play tonight so my number includes him in the lineup.
Montreal has a ton of question marks for tonight. The flu bug is going around the locker room and Max Pacioretty, Jonathan Drouin, Torrey Mitchell and Jordie Benn all missed practice yesterday. Julien had no update on anyone and had no idea who would or would not be available today so this will be the primary focus for this morning to find out who’s in and who’s out.
I created my line with everyone in for now and still have the Leafs as road chalk thanks to the downgrade from Price to Lindgren. I’ll update this one on Twitter after everyone is confirmed but I expect we’ll likely be on the Leafs or nothing tonight.
MINNESOTA WILD @ WASHINGTON CAPITALS
Minnesota – Devan Dubnyk/Alex Stalock (unknown)
Washington – Braden Holtby (expected)
Minnesota – Parise (out), Coyle (out)
Washington – Burakovsky (out), Djoos (questionable)
The Minnesota Wild have won four in a row thanks to the strong play of goaltender Devan Dubnyk but we’ll want to keep an eye on whether he starts tonight. Word is Alex Stalock is going to start one of these next two games either tonight or at home against the Devils on Monday.
Washington lost a pair of road games but are back home now to open a four game homestand where they’ve won four in a row.
This line opened where it should but a move on Minnesota has occurred overnight and this just one cent away from being a confirmed play on the Caps. I actually really like the Caps tonight and if Stalock is announced we’ll be looking to quickly jump on Washington but for now we’ll hold off.
COLORADO AVALANCHE @ NASHVILLE PREDATORS
Colorado – Semyon Varlamov/Jonathan Bernier (unknown)
Nashville – Pekka Rinne
Colorado – Nemeth (out), Barrie (likely)
Nashville – Ellis (out), Hartnell (out), Weber (out)
Colorado opens a back-to-back tonight but no word on whether Varlamov or Bernier goes tonight. Tyson Barrie missed Thursday’s game but returned to practice yesterday without any issues and could return to the lineup tonight. Rookie Vladislav Kamenev made his Avs debut last game but suffered a broken arm so Dominic Toninato was called up and will center a line with Yakupov and Andrighetto.
Nashville blew a third period lead in Minnesota to snap their five game winning streak and will open a three game homestand tonight. The lineup is expected to remain the same except for the backup goaltender. Juuse Saros was sent down and Anders Lindback called up. Lindback leads the AHL in wins and with Saros struggling, he’s earned the call-up.
This line has dropped a bit from the high open but is within the range of where it should be. No interest in the Avs here and nowhere near enough value to think about the Preds. If anything, you could use them as a parlay piece today but I’m not even real crazy about that. Plenty of other better spots around today.
ST. LOUIS BLUES @ VANCOUVER CANUCKS
St. Louis – Jake Allen (likely)
Vancouver – Jacob Markstrom/Anders Nilsson (unknown)
St. Louis – Fabbri (out), Berglund (out), Bouwmeester (out)
Vancouver – Tanev (out), Stecher (out)
The Blues wrap up a three game road trip tonight after splitting their first two in Calgary and Edmonton. Patrik Berglund is getting close to a return and will be re-evaluated again next week. He could be back in just a couple of weeks.
Vancouver wraps up a mini two game homestand tonight and will then head out East for a six game trip.
The Blues are probably the play here but this line is priced right and I don’t have any interest in this one.
BOSTON BRUINS @ SAN JOSE SHARKS
Boston – Anton Khudobin (confirmed)
San Jose – Martin Jones/Aaron Dell (unknown)
Boston – Marchand (out), Bjork (out), Backes (out), Spooner (out), McQuaid (out), Krug (questionable)
San Jose – Martin (out)
The Boston Bruins are coming off a 2-1 win at Los Angeles in a game I expected them to do well in. Now they travel to San Jose who is playing much better defensively than the Kings and are more responsible with the puck. Cassidy is going with the “hot hand” in Anton Khudobin again and it amazes me that there are people out there who think Khudobin is actually a better goaltender than Tuukka Rask. Outside of an extremely small sample size of a few games this season, you’ll be hard pressed to find a single career stat (or even a recent 2-3 year span) that would suggest Khudobin has an edge on Rask.
The injury list continues to grow for the Bruins as defenseman Torey Krug missed Thursday’s game and is day-to-day and questionable for tonight. The Bruins survived without him last game but he is a very significant loss and if he can’t go tonight this would create even more value on the Sharks.
San Jose has been playing well on home ice which made Thursday’s 2-0 setback to Florida surprising. Having two disallowed goals didn’t help.
Paul Martin has been skating for the past week and is nearly ready to return. The Sharks haven’t felt the need to rush him since Joakim Ryan has been playing so well beside Brent Burns.
Haven’t seen whether Jones of Dell starts tonight but it doesn’t make a huge difference to me. This line is drastically underpriced and I came close to making this a multi-unit play on San Jose but we’ll keep it at the standard unit for now. My line is with Krug in the lineup but hopefully he sits out again.
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