NHL betting trends, odds and predictions for Thursday, November 16th, 2017 from various handicappers and websites
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Home side won seven of last nine New Jersey-Toronto games; Devils lost three of last four visits to Toronto. Last five series games went over total. New Jersey won last four games overall, split last four road games. Three of their last four games stayed under total. Maple Leafs won their last four games, allowing eight goals; they won last three home games. Under is 2-1-2 in their last five home games.
Road team won seven of last ten Islander-Carolina games; Hurricanes won four of last five trips to Brooklyn. Over is 5-3 in last eight series games. Carolina won three of its last four games; they split last four road games. Over is 6-4 in their last ten games. Islanders are 2-3 in last five games overall; they won four of last five home games. Eight of their last ten games went over the total.
Penguins won three of last four games with Ottawa; they lost four of last five games in this building. Under is 5-1-2 in last eight series games. Pittsburgh lost six of its last nine games overall; they lost last four road games, outscored 15-8. Under is 6-4 in their last ten games. Senators won three of their last four games; over is 8-2 in their last ten games. Ottawa split its last eight home games.
Canadiens are 6-4 in their last 10 games with Arizona; Coyotes lost three of last five games in Montreal. Last three series games went over total. Arizona is 2-18, 1-11 on the road; Coyotes were outscored 17-7 in losing their last five games. Last six Arizona games stayed under total. Montreal won six of its last nine games; they scored total of 3 goals in last three games. Last five Canadian games stayed under the total.
Dallas Stars won three of last four games with Tampa Bay; Stars are 2-3 in last five games in this building. Over is 9-1 in last ten series games. Dallas lost three of its last four games; they lost their last thee road games, all of which went over the total. Lightning won four in row, eight of last 10 games; they allowed total of 4 goals in last three games. Three of their last four games went over total.
Home side won eight of last ten Philly-Winnipeg games; Flyers are 2-3 in their last five visits to Manitoba. Over is 3-2-1 in last six series games. Philly lost seven of its last ten games; they’ve scored total of 2 goals in last three road games. Under is 5-1 in their last six games. Jets won six of last eight games, three of last four at home; three of their last four games stayed under the total.
Nashville-Minnesota split their last ten games; over is 3-1-1 in last five. Predators split their last four visits to the Twin Cities. Nashville won its last five games overall, four of last five on road. Four of their last five games went over the total. Minnesota won 3-0/1-0/3-0 in its last three games; under is 4-1-1 in their last six games. Wild won four of their last six home games.
Edmonton won its last four games with the Blues; under is 5-2 in last seven series games. St Louis split its last four visits to Edmonton, but lost last two. Blues lost last two games 5-2/7-4 after a 7-1 run; St Louis is 6-4 on road this season. Over is 5-5- in their last ten games. Oilers split their last ten games; they’re 3-3 in last six home games. Under is 4-2 in their last six games.
Washington won its last six games with Colorado; three of last four series games went over the total. Caps won their last three visits to Denver. Washington won five of its last seven games but lost four of its last six road games. Under is 5-1 in their last six games. Colorado lost its last three games, outscored 14-10; their last nine games went over total. Avalanche won three of its last four home games.
Vancouver is 3-5 in its last eight games, losing three of last four home games. Under is 6-2 in Canucks’ last eight games. Las Vegas is 3-6 on road this season (7-1 at home); over is 8-2 in their last ten games. Knights lost six of their last eight games.
Road team won seven of last nine Florida-San Jose games; Panthers won four of last five games in the Shark Tank. Over is 3-1 in last four series games. Florida lost six of its last eight games; under is 3-1 in their last four games. Panthers lost three of their last four road games. Sharks won six of their last seven games overall, four of last five at home. Under is 8-1 in their last nine games.
Bruins-Kings split their last ten games; Boston lost three of last four games in Staples Center. Under is 5-1-1 in last seven series games. Bruins lost six of their last eight games; they scored total of five goals in last three games. Under is 6-3 in their last nine games. Kings lost last three games, scoring total of five goals; they lost their four home games. Over is 5-2 in their last seven games.
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NHL Picks and Betting Tips
By Parker Michaels
MORNING LINE REPORT
Our gamble paid off last night as the Ducks pulled out the victory but we’ll have to send a box of chocolates to John Gibson because he absolutely stole the show in an otherwise dominant Bruins effort.
We’re cautiously optimistic after a couple of winning nights in a row and we’ll hope to keep things going in a positive direction tonight with the massive 12-game card.
Elsewhere, it was an ugly scene in Detroit last night as the Flames didn’t take well to getting blown out. The teams combined for five game misconducts and over 100 minutes in penalties highlighted by a Matthew Tkachuk spearing major late in the game. Even Jaromir Jagr received two minutes for unsportsmanlike conduct. Ugg-ly.
Let’s get right into things today. I had planned on doing a condensed version with the heavy card but I still don’t know what that word means as I see I’m just over the 4000-word mark again with this sentence. Lines have held pretty stable so far this morn—and there goes the Vegas number. Crap. Okay so we’ll scratch that play but hopefully we’ll be able to get the other four.
NEW JERSEY DEVILS @ TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS
New Jersey – Cory Schneider (expected)
Toronto – Frederik Andersen (likely)
New Jersey – Johansson (out), Zajac (probable)
Toronto – Matthews (questionable)
New Jersey had a wild 7-5 comeback win at Chicago to kick off this four game road trip. Travis Zajac is expected to be activated off the IR today and make his season debut tonight. Zajac underwent surgery in August to repair a torn pectoral muscle and was supposed to be out until at least mid-December so this is great news for the Devils. Zajac is the team’s number one center but he practiced yesterday centering the second line between Jesper Bratt and Drew Stafford. Nico Hischier remained on the top line for the time being. I imagine this will be a short-term thing until Zajac gets his timing back.
Marcus Johansson has missed the last six games as he recovers from a concussion. He’s began lightly skating on his own for the past few days but did not travel with the team and is still a ways from returning.
Defenseman Mirco Mueller fractured his clavicle last game and will require surgery. Ben Lovejoy, a healthy scratch the last three games, will draw into the lineup for him on the third pairing.
Life without Auston Matthews has been good for the Toronto Maple Leafs as they’ve managed to win the past three games without their stud center and four in a row overall. Matthews was a full participant at Wednesday’s practice but has told the media he’s unsure if he’ll play tonight. Babcock said his health is now fine but his timing and lack of power was still evident. They’ll make a final decision on him after this morning’s skate.
Toronto lost 6-3 to the Devils early in the season so will be looking for a little payback. I’m expecting this line to open within my range so we’ll likely pass and look for better spots.
CAROLINA HURRICANES @ NEW YORK ISLANDERS
Carolina – Scott Darling (confirmed)
NY Islanders – Thomas Greiss/Jaroslav Halak (unknown)
Carolina – Stempniak (out), Kruger (questionable)
NY Islanders – Kulemin (out)
Carolina has won three of their last four after a 5-1 win over Dallas which was a lot closer than the final score indicates. Teuvo Teravainen scored a third period hat trick to break things open and Sebastian Aho finally scored his first goal of the season. The Canes are still at the bottom of the Metro division but they’ve played the fewest number of games in the division with just 16 and they sure don’t look like a last place team on the ice.
Marcus Kruger missed Wednesday’s practice with an illness. Josh Jooris would draw into the lineup as the fourth line center if he can’t go tonight.
The New York Islanders haven’t played since Saturday’s 5-2 win at St. Louis so should be well rested for this one. Less than 24 hours after Doug Weight had ripped the team to shreds and called them out for an embarrassing 5-0 loss at Dallas, the Isles received the message and came out much more aggressive.
Anthony Beauvillier is expected to be back in the lineup tonight after missing Saturday’s game. Josh Ho-Sang returned to practice yesterday after missing Tuesday with an illness but Weight isn’t sure if he’ll be in the lineup. Weight will announce his lineup and starting goaltender later this morning.
This line is sitting where it should and I don’t expect much movement here so we’ll sit this one out.
PITTSBURGH PENGUINS @ OTTAWA SENATORS
Pittsburgh – Matt Murray (expected)
Ottawa – Craig Anderson (confirmed)
Pittsburgh – Hunwick (questionable)
Ottawa – MacArthur (out), Z. Smith (out), Ryan (in), Borowiecki (in)
The Pittsburgh Penguins continue to be a tale of two teams as they ran their home record to 6-0-1 after a 5-4 overtime win against Buffalo on Tuesday. The Pens are a disappointing 4-7-2 on the road. Pittsburgh’s offense is starting to pick up steam as they’ve scored three 5-on-5 goals in each of the last two games and Sidney Crosby finally found the back of the net to break his prolonged scoring slump. Unfortunately, the defense is still a mess as they continue to give up too many odd man rushes and high danger scoring chances.
Defenseman Matt Hunwick returned to practice yesterday and continues to recover from a concussion. He traveled with the team and will be on the ice again this morning but a timetable for his return is still on a day-to-day basis.
The Ottawa Senators return home from the longest road trip imaginable after a pair of 4-3 wins over Colorado in Sweden last week. This is a little different than just traveling from the East Coast to the West or vice versa, so we’re not really sure what kind of effect the travel will have on the team.
Motivation shouldn’t be a problem tonight at least as the Sens get their first crack at avenging last year’s Eastern Conference Final Game 7 double overtime loss and they’ll have some new healthy bodies in the lineup.
Bobby Ryan will return after missing three weeks with a broken finger and will play on a line with newly acquired Matt Duchene and Ryan Dzingel. With Brassard, Hoffman and Stone on the top line, the Sens appear to have a solid top-six now.
Matt Borowiecki will return on defense after missing the Sweden trip due to a personal health issue.
Defenseman Chris Wideman played some on the fourth line wing in Sweden and Boucher said he was impressed enough that this experiment will continue tonight.
This is a tricky game because of the extended travel of the Sens and even though they’ve been back since Sunday that was a long trip for the body clock to adjust from. There’s line value on the Penguins here but because of the situation I’m choosing to pass on this one. There’s better spots on today’s card so there’s no need to force anything here.
ARIZONA COYOTES @ MONTREAL CANADIENS
Arizona – Antti Raanta/Scott Wedgewood (unknown)
Montreal – Charlie Lindgren (confirmed)
Arizona – Chychrun (out), Hjalmarsson (out)
Montreal – Hemsky (out), Lehkonen (out), Schlemko (out), Pacioretty (probable)
The Arizona Coyotes losing continued with a 4-1 setback at Winnipeg on Tuesday to complete a home-and-home sweep. The Coyotes set another dubious record as the first team in NHL history to begin the season 20 games without a regulation win.
Antti Raanta was pulled early in the second period and had his first real bad game. The Coyotes haven’t said if he or Wedgewood will start tonight.
The Montreal Canadiens only practiced with three lines yesterday as a trio of forwards were missing. Artturi Lehkonen was placed on IR with a lower-body injury and Torrey Mitchell was out with the flu and is questionable for tonight. Max Pacioretty also was absent but Julien said it was just a “therapy day” and he should play tonight so that’s something you’ll want to confirm if you like Montreal tonight.
The most concerning thing for Montreal is their waiver claim of goaltender Antti Niemi from Florida. Carey Price had been skating regularly and was supposed to be close to a return but on Tuesday it was announced he’ll be shut down again for a few days. When Price had season-ending surgery two seasons ago it was the same thing. He was supposed to be out only a few weeks and then all of a sudden the season was shut down. Let’s hope this doesn’t end up like that but it has to be worrisome that a player struggling like Niemi is brought in as the best option. Niemi will backup Lindgren tonight and for the foreseeable future until he’s waived again.
This is a classic letdown spot with a look-ahead for Montreal. The Leafs come to town on Saturday night and the Canadiens could overlook the Coyotes here in anticipation for that one. It seems like the Montreal media certainly is as they’re already assuming two points for Montreal tonight. They also talked poorly of Coyotes GM John Chayka and had some pretty terrible things to say about the Arizona team so it would be extra sweet for a Coyotes win tonight so they could eat their words, but that’s a personal opinion and has nothing to do with the pick for tonight.
The pick comes down to the simple fact this line is overpriced for Charlie Lindgren being in net so we’ll grab the value with Arizona again and hope the Coyotes can finally put a full game together.
DALLAS STARS @ TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING
Dallas – Ben Bishop (confirmed)
Tampa Bay – Andrei Vasilevskiy (expected)
Dallas – Methot (out)
Tampa Bay – no significant injuries
The Dallas Stars have to be feel extremely snake-bitten as of late. The team has been playing some excellent hockey but the bounces haven’t landed their way in the last two road games which they were arguably the superior team. Tuesday’s 4-3 shootout loss at Florida is just the latest example as the Stars hit more crossbars and posts than they did twine. The Stars dominated most of the game and Hitchcock called the second period their best road period of the year.
Ben Bishop will make his first return to Tampa since being traded last season to Los Angeles.
Tampa Bay made the long trip home after Sunday’s win in Anaheim completed a California sweep on the West Coast. Kucherov and Stamkos continue to roll and there’s not much else to say about the Bolts today.
First game back after a West Coast swing makes this a tough spot for the Lightning and with the inflated price on the red-hot Bolts we’ll jump on the Stars. Dallas has very extremely unkind to us so far this year so hopefully they can get one back for us. They’re good down to +144.
PHILADELPHIA FLYERS @ WINNIPEG JETS
Philadelphia – Brian Elliott/Michal Neuvirth (unknown)
Winnipeg – Connor Hellebuyck/Steve Mason (unknown)
Philadelphia – MacDonald (out), Patrick (questionable)
Winnipeg – Perreault (probable)
The Philadelphia Flyers will be happy to see a goaltender not named Devan Dubnyk in the opponent’s crease tonight after being shutout in back-to-back games by the Wild goalie. Things won’t get any easier though as they’re likely to face another hot goaltender in the 9-1-2 Connor Hellebuyck.
Rookie Nolan Patrick is hopeful to return to the lineup in his hometown tonight after missing the last nine games. He was a full participant in practice yesterday and it appears like he’ll be ready but Hakstol said he wouldn’t decide until after this morning’s skate.
Defenseman Andrew MacDonald skated for the first time since his leg injury almost four weeks ago. He’s closer to a return but will not play tonight.
The Winnipeg Jets swept a home-and-home series from Arizona with a pair of 4-1 victories.
Mathieu Perreault is expected to be activated off the IR today and return to the lineup after missing the last 12 games with a leg injury from a blocked shot. The Jets top-six has been firing on all cylinders and Maurice will have a decision to make whether he wants to tamper with the current chemistry. Perreault is expected to slot in on the third line to start with Adam Lowry and Andrew Copp or Brandon Tanev but he’ll be back in his regular spot on the powerplay.
One might think former Flyer Steve Mason might get the start in net tonight but a Flyers beat writer said he thought Hellebuyck would get the start according to “Jets insiders” and that Mason would get the call on Saturday so we’ll have to wait and see this morning.
Whether it’s Hellebuyck or Mason, we have enough value to play the Jets here and this looks like a pretty good play.
NASHVILLE PREDATORS @ MINNESOTA WILD
Nashville – Pekka Rinne (expected)
Minnesota – Devan Dubnyk (confirmed)
Nashville – Ellis (out), Hartnell (out), Weber (out)
Minnesota – Parise (out), Coyle (out)
The Nashville Predators are on a roll with five straight wins after Tuesday’s 6-3 victory over Washington. Kyle Turris has already settled in nicely on a new line with Kevin Fiala and Craig Smith as all three members have significant contributions the last two games.
Nick Bonino scored in his return to the lineup. Bonino centered the fourth line and was limited in ice-time but his return solidifies the Predators depth down the middle and makes them a serious contender.
Injuries to Scott Hartnell and Yannick Weber are more serious than initially thought. Hartnell will miss three-to-five week and Weber will be out two-to-four weeks, both with lower-body injuries. The loss of Hartnell will hurt their depth but they have a couple of capable candidates who should be able to fill the hole in either Pontus Aberg or Frederick Gaudreau. The Preds don’t seem to miss a beat when one of their defender’s go down. Alex Carrier, one of their most promising prospects, could be called up to fill Weber’s spot.
The Minnesota Wild had two streaks on the line Tuesday and while one ended just 12 seconds into the night, the other lasted the full 60 minutes and resulted in another huge two points. Nino Niederreiter scored for the Wild just 12 seconds into the game snapping Jason Zucker’s streak of scoring the team’s previous six goals while Devan Dubnyk recorded his third consecutive shutout and hasn’t allowed a goal over the last 195 minutes and 5 seconds. Dubnyk broke his own previous franchise record of 183 minutes during the third period.
I thought this line looked right when it first opened and was surprised to see such a high number on Minnesota when I calculated things. I personally think the Preds are the better team now but my number would suggest the Wild have a fairly significant edge. I’ll trust the number in this spot and play the Wild but I’m cautiously skeptical about it.
ST. LOUIS BLUES @ EDMONTON OILERS
St. Louis – Jake Allen (likely)
Edmonton – Cam Talbot (expected)
St. Louis – Fabbri (out), Berglund (out), Bouwmeester (out)
Edmonton – Sekera (out), Slepyshev (out)
The St. Louis Blues are coming off back-to-back terrible defensive performances and will look to avoid their first three game losing streak of the year.
Beau Bennett had one shot at playing in the top-six last game and failed miserably looking all out of sorts and was shipped to the AHL afterwards. It was thought maybe one of the Blues talented youngsters of Tage Thompson, Ivan Barbashev or Sammy Blais might be called up but Yeo said the roster will remain the same for tonight’s game at least.
Yeo is going back to his previous lines with Tarasenko back with Schwartz and Schenn and Sobotka back with Stastny and Steen.
The Edmonton Oilers finally broke out in a big way with Tuesday’s 8-2 smashing of Vegas. The Oilers pulled a fairly low-key trade swapping struggling Jussi Jokinen for struggling Mike Cammalleri. Statistically, Cammalleri has the potential to provide a bit more scoring pop in the bottom-six but gives up some on the defensive end compared to Jokinen. It felt like Jokinen was being misused by McLellan so I’m not so sure this actually makes them any better but it’s another interesting move by the Oilers.
This line opened on the high end of where it should be and had seen a move towards St. Louis. It’s currently a little below where it should be now and if it continues to drop a bit more we’ll be coming in on the Oilers later today or otherwise it’s a pass.
WASHINGTON CAPITALS @ COLORADO AVALANCHE
Washington – Braden Holtby (expected)
Colorado – Semyon Varlamov (expected)
Washington – Burakovsky (out), Djoos (out)
Colorado – Nemeth (out), Jost (probable)
The Washington Capitals inconsistency on the road continued with Tuesday’s 6-3 loss at Nashville which saw Braden Holtby allow all six goals and was pulled after 40 minutes.
Injury issues continued to rear its ugly head with the Caps as Matt Niskanen returned to the lineup after an extended absence but then rookie Christian Djoos was lost to an upper-body injury and won’t play tonight. There’s no timetable for his return. Taylor Chorney is expected to draw back into the lineup.
Colorado is expected to have Tyson Jost back in the lineup tonight. Rookie Vladislav Kamenev is also expected to be in the lineup tonight. Kamenev was acquired in the Duchene trade and projects to be a top-six forward and it appears the Avs are going to give him an extended look right away.
This line is on the high end of where it should be but isn’t anything unreasonable. Colorado is in the similar spot as Ottawa tonight with the extended travel trip home so we’re better off passing on this one for better spots elsewhere.
VEGAS GOLDEN KNIGHTS @ VANCOUVER CANUCKS
Vegas – Dylan Ferguson/Maxime Lagace/Malcolm Subban (unknown)
Vancouver – Jacob Markstrom/Anders Nilsson (unknown)
Vegas – Sbisa (out)
Vancouver – Tanev (out), Stecher (out)
The Golden Knights were shelled in Edmonton on Tuesday by the score of 8-2 but more importantly they lost yet another goaltender in what has become just an absurd storyline as he would be the fourth Vegas goaltender to go down with an injury. Lagace left in the third period after being slow to get up and reaching for his back. Gallant said after the game he was suffering from cramps but he tried to practice on Wednesday and left shortly into the session. Doesn’t look good.
Malcolm Subban did practice yesterday, however, and says he’s “pretty close”. Gallant thought he looked good and there’s a chance he could be activated and make the start tonight. We likely won’t find out until later in the day and maybe even up until pre-game skate so we’ll have to put this game on hold until then.
Vancouver returns home after a four game trip which ended with Tuesday’s 3-2 gutsy win at Los Angeles. Anders Nilsson celebrated the birth of his new child with the win and although his lack of recent work showed early in a quick 2-0 hole, he got stronger as the game wore on and has been excellent in net this year. Jacob Markstrom has also been very strong this year after a slow start and the Canucks duo actually lead the entire league in 5-on-5 save percentage at a .942 clip. No word yet on who will start tonight.
It’s hard to know exactly how to rate Dylan Ferguson and create a value for him which makes it difficult to set a true line for this game. Based on how I evaluate goaltenders I gave it a shot and even though I was fairly pessimistic on a rating for him, I still can’t get near the current line on Vancouver here. There’s some value on the Knights and if Subban ends up starting (which I think he could) there’s a ton more value on the Knights. Either way, we’re locking in Vegas as a road dog here which is a bit scary but it’s a tough spot for the Canucks returning home after the California swing. [UPDATE: Sharp line move as I was finishing the intro so we’ll scratch this one for now. We’ll keep an eye on it and re-visit later. Target number is Vegas +129 with Ferguson starting, much lower if Subban starts]
FLORIDA PANTHERS @ SAN JOSE SHARKS
Florida – Roberto Luongo/James Reimer (unknown)
San Jose – Martin Jones/Aaron Dell (unknown)
Florida – no significant injuries
San Jose – Martin (out), Thornton (probable)
The Florida Panthers begin a three games in four nights swing through California tonight as they try to move up out of the basement in the Eastern Conference. Bob Boughner was an assistant coach with San Jose during their run to the Stanley Cup so this will be a bit of a homecoming game for him with a little extra special meaning.
San Jose is making hay on this current extended homestand and have won six of their past seven games. The only significant news here is Joe Thornton missed practice the last two days and there’s questions on how his surgically repaired knee is holding up. DeBoer acknowledged Thornton wasn’t 100% but otherwise has deflected all questions this week other than to say he expects him to play tonight.
This line is on the high end of where it should be so even if Thornton ends up out tonight, it wouldn’t bring it down far enough to warrant a play on Florida. We’ll sit this one out.
BOSTON BRUINS @ LOS ANGELES KINGS
Boston – Anton Khudobin (expected)
Los Angeles – Jonathan Quick (expected)
Boston – Marchand (out), Backes (out), Bjork (out), Spooner (out), McQuaid (out), Krejci (probable)
Los Angeles – Gaborik (out), Carter (out), Clifford (out)
The Boston Bruins have lost four straight after kicking off their California trip with a 4-2 loss at Anaheim last night in a game where they probably deserved a better fate. The Bruins were dominant over the final 40 minutes in shot attempts and possession but couldn’t solve John Gibson who made a number of terrific saves.
The second period was maybe the most frustrating period of the season for Boston as they owned the Ducks with a 15-3 shot edge and 26-12 shot attempts advantage yet were outscored 2-1.
Some good news on the injury front is David Krejci is expected to play tonight. He was a game-time decision last night and did not play as Cassidy didn’t want him to play a back-to-back to start but he’s expected to be in the lineup tonight.
Los Angeles has dropped the first three games on this five game homestand after Tuesday’s 3-2 loss to Vancouver in yet another game where the Kings failed to move the puck out of their own zone effectively. Continued breakdowns and turnovers are the running theme for LA and even though the Bruins are severely banged up they are still a great fore-checking team and should provide the Kings with tons of problems.
We’ll wait for a line to open here and although I’m not expecting to find much value, I’ll be looking at Boston or nothing tonight.
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