Matt Severance
HOUSTON @ SEATTLE | 05/27 | 9:40 PM EDT
HOUSTON -185
ANALYSIS: Going to pick this game early as well as honestly I need a day/evening not sweating results after an incredibly frustrating Thursday. Will just check results Saturday. It's Cy Young favorite Justin Verlander on the mound for Houston. He has won six straight starts overall and is 2-0 with a 1.23 ERA this season vs. Seattle. The M's Chris Flexen, meanwhile, has yet to beat the Astros in his career (0-5, 6.16 ERA). The only advantage taking this now is that it likely will get to -200 or higher tomorrow.
PHILADELPHIA @ N.Y. METS | 05/27 | 7:10 PM EDT
N.Y. METS -124
ANALYSIS: I'm going to pre-play this Friday matchup -- I do this in hockey sometimes -- simply as the Mets are off today (Thursday) and the Phils had a tough matchup in Atlanta and then obviously had to travel. Only bad things could happen for Philadelphia in that Atlanta game (key relievers used, injuries, etc.). This ML can only go up and maybe way up. Mets starter Carlos Carrasco is 2-0 with a 2.16 ERA at home. Philly's Bailey Falter has a 5.12 ERA in 45.2 big-league innings. Could have a handful of day-before picks this weekend with the holiday as we won't be able to monitor lineups quite like we normally would.
COLORADO @ ST. LOUIS | 05/27 | 8:00 PM EDT
COLORADO -170
ANALYSIS: I have gone back-and-forth on this one regarding whether to take the Blues puckline or not. My concern in taking it is that Colorado won both games in St. Louis by three each and really was dominating Game 5 at home before completely falling apart. The ghosts of a possible Game 7 also loom for an Avalanche franchise that has lost five consecutive Game 7s. With the Blues' season on the line, they might pull their goalie very, very early if trailing in the third again ... which leads me to think the Avalanche may win by multiple goals on an empty-netter -- like they should have in Game 5 (but I'll never do -1.5 on the puckline in the playoffs). Hard to trust Blues netminder Ville Husso considering he has allowed at least four goals in five straight games.
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John Bollman
MIAMI @ ATLANTA | 05/27 | 7:20 PM EDT
ATLANTA -145
ANALYSIS: No Acuna Jr. is a big loss for the Braves but they should still have success against the Marlins at home. The Braves crush lefties and they will face a familiar lefty in Trevor Rogers today. Rogers pitched well in Atlanta in his first start but was rocked in Miami one week ago. I think he should struggle against a Braves team that is hoping to face anyone other than Aaron Nola after last night. Both bullpens are rested but the Marlins are also the worst team in the league in 1-run games with 14 losses already, so they just find ways to lose. I like the Braves at home.
KANSAS CITY @ MINNESOTA | 05/27 | 8:10 PM EDT
MINNESOTA -185
ANALYSIS: Both these starting pitchers faced the opposing team last time around, but Bailey Ober had success while Brad Keller did not. Byron Buxton could be out of the lineup tonight but I actually don’t think that would be the worst thing in the world with him going 1 for his last 29. The Twins had plenty of chances last night but were unable to convert. But now the Royals closer, Scott Barlow, pitched 41 pitches last night and will be unavailable. He and Josh Staumont are really all the Royals have. The Royals have one of the worst bullpens in the league and they will be without their top bullpen arm today, so essentially the only win outcome I see for the Royals here is if Keller pitches really well and goes really deep. That is possible, but highly unlikely at Minnesota where he has struggled in his career. I think this should be around -200, take the Twins at home to bounceback.
COLORADO @ ST. LOUIS | 05/27 | 8:00 PM EDT
ST. LOUIS 145
ANALYSIS: How are the Blues still this big underdog? Yes, no Jordan Binnington is massive, but the Blues are now at home with ALL the pressure on the Avs. The Avs were up 3-1 in the series with a 3-0 lead at home, and they blew it. Last season, the Avs were up 2-0 in the series against the Golden Knights before losing four straight games to miss out on the Conference Finals. The Avs have stalled in this exact spot three straight seasons and we saw the pressure get to them in their last game. The Blues won their Stanley Cup in 2019 and they have nothing to lose. They are at home with the last line change and Ville Husso is much better at home. All they need to do is put a little pressure on the Avs tonight and I think we will get a Game 7. I think this is a 50-50 game, take the Blues at home.
TORONTO @ L.A. ANGELS | 05/27 | 9:38 PM EDT
TORONTO -120
ANALYSIS: Alek Manoah has been dominant this season, and he should have success against a struggling Angels lineup. He has pitched a quality start in 7 of his 8 appearances this season. Chase Silseth is making just his third career start after being the first player from the 2021 draft to play in the Majors. I think asking him to face the Blue Jays lineup while they’re starting to get hot is a tough ask from him. Both bullpens are susceptible but have good backend pitchers that can definitely blow a save, so that’s a wash. Taylor Ward is still injured and cannot play the field, so the Angels must either hit him or Ohtani at DH, not both.
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Matt Severance
BALTIMORE @ BOSTON | 05/27 | 7:10 PM EDT
BOSTON -175
ANALYSIS: The Red Sox did play yesterday and had to travel but didn't really use any key reliever -- Matt Barnes isn't a key reliever any longer. I am a fan of Boston pitcher Garrett Whitlock despite him being roughed up last time out by Seattle. He had been very good otherwise. Orioles rookie Kyle Bradish has potential but also a 6.53 ERA this month. Lineup-wise, this is a mismatch unless Boston left all its offense on the South Side of Chicago.
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Micah Roberts
SAN FRANCISCO @ CINCINNATI | 05/27 | 6:40 PM EDT
OVER 8
ANALYSIS: We’re going to see a bunch of runs in this game between the two best Over teams in MLB. The Giants are 25-17-1 on the Over and the Reds are 26-17-1 (14-4 at home). The Reds average 6.2 runs per game at home and also allow 6.2. The Giants have scored 22 in their past two games, and the Reds scored 20 on Thursday. Looks like a shootout. Over is the play.
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Allie O'Neill
SAN FRANCISCO @ CINCINNATI | 05/27 | 6:40 PM EDT
OVER 8
ANALYSIS: The Reds are starting Graham Ashcraft up from AAA. Ashcraft was decent in his debut, but I predict he has problems against this San Francisco offense. While the Reds have made some improvements, their bullpen ERA is still the fourth worst in the league. Contrarily, the Giants' bullpen has regressed, as they now sit just ahead of Cincy with the fifth worst bullpen ERA. The Reds' ability to score will likely be the determining factor for this over, and while it could prove difficult against Carlos Rodon, the Reds still score an average of 5.35 runs per game at home. The over has cashed in 12 of the last 13 Reds home games, so I'll take the value tonight, even against Rodon.
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