MLB betting trends, odds and predictions for Saturday, August 19th, 2017 from various handicappers and websites
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Cardinals @ Pirates
Wacha is 2-1, 3.86 in his last four starts; under is 6-2 in his last eight. Cardinals are 4-5 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 10-8-4
Kuhl is 2-1, 4.00 in his last three starts; under is 5-0-1 in his last six. Pirates are 6-5 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 12-9-3
Cardinals won six of last eight road games; 10 of their last 11 games went over the total. Pittsburgh lost its last six games; their last three games went over.
Marlins @ Mets
Worley is 2-0, 2.12 in his last three starts (under 2-0-1). Miami is 2-1 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 4-3-1
Montero is 0-4, 6.05 in his last seven starts (under 6-1). Mets lost his last five home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 2-7-1
Miami won six of its last seven games; under is 6-2 in their last eight road tilts. Mets lost their last five games; under is 6-2-1 in their last nine home games.
Reds @ Braves
Stephenson is 0-2, 5.28 in three starts this year (under 3-0). Reds split his two road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 1-1-1
Teheran is 0-4, 5.29 in his last six starts; under is 6-2-1 in his last nine. Atlanta is 3-8 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 10-9-5
Reds won three of last four games; over is 11-2 in their last 13 games. Atlanta is 3-8 in its last 11 games; under is 11-2 in their last 13 home games. .
Brewers @ Rockies
Woodruff is 1-1, 1.50 in his first two MLB starts (under 2-0). Milwaukee won his only road start— their first 5-inning record with him: 1-1
Bettis shut the Braves out for seven innings (90 PT) in his first ’17 start. Colorado’s first 5-inning record with him: 0-0-1
Brewers won four of their last five games; over is 4-1-1 in their last six. Colorado lost five of last eight games; under is 7-2-2 in their last 11.
Nationals @ Padres
Strasburg is making first start since July 23; he is 1-1, 3.32 in his last four starts (under 3-1). Nationals are 9-1 in his road starts — their first 5-inning record with him: 11-8-1
Wood is 1-1, 6.00 in four starts for the Padres (over 3-1). San Diego won his first two home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 1-2-1
Nationals won seven of last nine games; under is 7-0-1 in their last eight games. San Diego is 8-4 in last 12 home games; under is 7-2-1 in last ten home tilts.
Phillies @ Giants
Eickhoff is 2-0, 3.77 in his last five starts; over is 4-2 in his last six. Phillies are 1-10 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 9-10-2
Blach is 2-1, 4.29 in his last three starts (over 3-0). Giants are 6-6 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 10-9
Philly lost eight of last nine games; over is 5-1 in their last six games. Giants won six of last seven home games; last five Giant games went over the total.
Angels @ Orioles
Ramirez is 1-2, 3.71 in his last four starts; under is 6-2 in his last eight. Angels are 6-4 in his road starts— their 1st 5-inning record with him: 8-10-5
Gausman is 4-1, 1.80 in his last six starts; under is 4-1 in his last five. Orioles are 8-5 in his home starts— their 1st 5-inning record with him: 13-13
Angels won seven of last nine games; four of their last five games stayed under. Baltimore lost six of last ten games; fiver of their last six went over.
Mariners @ Rays
Miranda is 0-2, 8.02 in his last four starts; over is 7-2 in his last nine. Seattle is 8-3 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 13-10-1
Odorizzi is 0-2, 4.50 in his last three starts; over is 9-2 in his last 11. Rays are 3-7 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 8-8-4
Mariners won their last three games; under is 4-2 in their last six games. Tampa Bay lost nine of last 11 games; under is 14-2 in their last 16 games.
New York @ Boston
Sabathia is 0-2, 8.10 in his last three starts; under is 7-1 in his last eight. New York is 7-4 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 9-9-1
Sale is 3-0, 1.77 in his last six starts; under is 7-2 in his last nine. Boston is 8-2 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 13-4-7
New York won four of its last five games; over is 3-1 in their last four games. Red Sox are 13-2 in last 15 games; under is 4-2-1 in their last seven home games.
White Sox @ Rangers
Holland is 1-3, 9.00 in his last four starts; over is 6-2 in his last eight. Chicago is 4-7 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 8-12-3
Perez is 2-0, 1.93 in his last two starts; over is 6-4 in his last ten. Texas is 6-8 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 8-12-3
White Sox lost five of their last six games; under is 5-2 in their last seven road games. Texas won seven of last nine games; over is 3-1 in their last four games.
A’s @ Astros
Graveman is 1-1, 8.16 in his last three starts; over is 4-1 in his last five. Oakland is 1-4 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 3-4-4
McHugh is 0-2, 5.20 in five starts this year (under 4-1). Houston lost his only home start— their first 5-inning record with him: 2-3
A’s lost seven of last ten games; four of their last six went over. Houston is 4-7 in its last 11 games; under is 6-3-1 in their last ten.
Indians @ Royals
Bauer is 4-0, 2.41 in his last five starts; under is 3-0-1 in his last four. Indians are 5-5 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 12-8-3
Vargas is 1-2, 6.89 in his last three starts; over is 8-4 in his last 12. Royals are 8-4 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 13-8-2
Cleveland is 7-1 in last eight games- under is 11-3-1 in their last 15 games. Royals won four of last six games; four of their last five went over.
Blue Jays @ Cubs
Tepesch is 1-1, 4.35 in two starts for Toronto (over 1-1). Blue Jays’ first 5-inning record with him: 1-1
Quintana is 1-2, 5.73 in his last four starts, last three of which went over. Cubs are 2-1 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 2-4-1
Toronto won five of last seven games; under is 7-2 in their last nine. Cubs are 4-2 in last six games; over is 6-1 in their last seven home games.
Dodgers @ Tigers
Ryu is 1-0, 1.88 in his last four starts; over is 5-3 in his last eight. Dodgers won his last six road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 6-9-2
Fulmer is 0-4, 8.31 in his last four starts; over is 6-4-1 in his home starts. Detroit is 7-4 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 10-10-2
Dodgers are 20-3 in last 23 games; over is 5-2 in their last seven. Detroit lost seven of last eight games; over is 7-1-1 in their last nine.
Diamondbacks @ Twins
Greinke is 3-1, 3.15 in his last five starts; under is 6-2-2 in his last ten. Arizona is 5-4 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 15-5-4
Berrios is 0-2, 7.45 in his last four starts; over is 5-3 in his last eight. Minnesota won his last five home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 10-5-2
Arizona is 4-9 in its last 13 games; over is 5-2 in their last seven road games. Twins are 9-3 in last 12 games; over is 4-1-2 in their last seven.
Record with this pitcher starting
StL-Pitt: Wacha 11-11; Kuhl 9-15
Mia-NY: Worley 6-2; Montero 3-7
Cin-Atl: Stephenson 1-2; Teheran 10-14
Mil-Colo: Woodruff 1-1; Bettis 1-0
Wsh-SD: Strasburg 15-5; Wood 2-2 (2-1)
Phil-SF: Eickhoff 6-15; Blach 9-11
LA-Balt: Ramirez 13-10; Gausman 13-13
Sea-TB: Miranda 13-11; Odorizzi 7-13
NY-Bos: Sabathia 13-6; Sale 18-6
Chi-Tex: Holland 7-17; Perez 9-14
A’s-Hst: Graveman 5-6; McHugh 1-4
Clev-KC: Bauer 12-11; Vargas 16-7
Tor-Chi: Tepesch 1-1 (0-1); Quintana 3-3 (10-8 )
LA-Det: Ryu 9-8; Fulmer 11-11
Az-Minn: Greinke 17-7; Berrios 10-7
Pitchers allowing a run in first inning
StL-Pitt: Wacha 3-22; Kuhl 5-24
Mia-NY: Worley 5-8; Montero 3-10
Cin-Atl: Stephenson 1-3; Teheran 8-24
Mil-Colo: Woodruff 0-2; Bettis 0-1
Wsh-SD: Strasburg 3-20; Wood 1-7
Phil-SF: Eickhoff 7-21; Blach 7-20
LA-Balt: Ramirez 10-23; Gausman 7-26
Sea-TB: Miranda 11-24; Odorizzi 6-20
NY-Bos: Sabathia 5-19; Sale 2-24
Chi-Tex: Holland 6-24; Perez 10-23
A’s-Hst: Graveman 6-11; McHugh 0-5
Clev-KC: Bauer 4-23; Vargas 5-23
Tor-Chi: Tepesch 0-3; Quintana 6-24
LA-Det: Ryu 7-17; Fulmer 8-22
Az-Minn: Greinke 3-24; Berrios 5-17
StL-Pitt: Three of last four Randazzo games went over.
Mia-NY: Under is 4-2-3 in last nine Marquez games.
Cin-Atl: Over is 6-1 in last seven Reynolds games.
Mil-Colo: Four of last six Reyburn games went over.
Wsh-SD: Favorites won seven of last eight Foster games.
Phil-SF: Six of last seven Morales games stayed under.
LA-Balt: Over is 4-1-2 in last seven Hallion games.
Sea-TB: Three of last four Guccione games went over.
NY-Bos: Over is 6-2-2 in last ten HGibson games.
Chi-Tex: Five of last six Timmons games stayed under.
A’s-Hst: Over is 3-2 in Additon games this season.
Clev-KC: Seven of last nine Hudson games stayed under.
Tor-Chi: Underdogs are 9-6 in last fifteen West games.
LA-Det: Under is 5-3 in last eight Hamari games.
Az-Minn: Last eight Hernandez games stayed under total.
NL @ AL– 70-51 AL, favorites +$277
AL @ NL– 65-60 NL, favorites +$46
Total: 130-115 AL, favorites +$323
Totals in interleague games
NL @ AL: Over 62-58-3
AL @ NL: Over 66-53-7
Total: Over 128-111-10
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By Micah Roberts
L.A. Dodgers (85-34) at Detroit (53-67)
Scheduled Rotation: Hill (8-4) vs. Zimmermann (7-9), Ryu (4-6) vs. Fulmer (10-10), Maeda (11-4) vs. Verlander (8-8 )
Series Price: Dodgers -220, Tigers +180
It's August 18 and the Dodgers already have 85 wins, and they're doing it without their ace pitcher Clayton Kershaw. They've gone 24-5 since the All-Star break and have gone 50-9 in their last 59 and start a seven-game road trip in Detroit.The Dodgers are 14-3 in Interleague play and all three losses came at the hands of the Tigers. They split a pair at Dodger Stadium in early April, but then it was the Tigers holding serve at home winning both meetings, one of which was a 14-5 Tigers win in matchup between Justin Verlander and Hyun-Jin Ryu.
The Tigers enter this weekend's play on a four-game losing streak and have the majors second-worst ERA (5.08). The Dodgers are ranked MLB's No. 1 in ERA (3.11). It's hard to make a case for the Tigers to win more than one game in this series.
Detroit's poor form happens when it's supposed to, winning just once in its last 11 games as an underdog. Detroit's poor pitching has helped eight of its last nine go 'over' the total. Check the winds on that angle as well; Friday it was blowing out 12 mph to left field.
The Dodgers are currently the Las Vegas Westgate SuperBook's 2/1 favorite to win the World Series.
Arizona (67-54) at Minnesota (60-59)
Scheduled Rotation: (Godley 5-5) vs. Santana (12-7), Shipley (0-1) vs. Colon (4-10)
Series Price: Diamondbacks -135, Twins +125
After splitting a four game home-and-away series with Houston, Arizona just went 4-6 on a brutal 10-game stretch that began at Chase Field by going 1-2 against the Dodgers and then 1-2 against the Cubs. Since going 53-36 at the All-Star break -- a club record, they've stumbled in the second-half, 14-18.
The Twins have won eight of their last 11, but Arizona has won 11 of 14 inter-league games. They have MLB's No. 2 ranked team ERA (3.61), Minnesota is No. 26 (4.77). This is a team defining series for the Twins, who are just 28-35 at home this season. They're six games out of the American League Central, but are in the middle of a wild eight-team race for the final AL Wild Card.
Eight teams are within three games of each other for the stretch run. The Twins are only one game behind the Angels. I'd look for Arizona to bounce back here and score quite a bit of runs in this series. Greinke will handle Saturday, so they have to win either Friday or Sunday to win. Bartolo Colon goes Sunday, so that's a good bet against and try the 'over' in that game as well. Colon has gone 'over' the total in 13 of his 19 starts.
Cleveland (66-53) at Kansas City (61-59)
Scheduled Rotation: Kluber (11-3) vs. Kennedy (4-8 ), Bauer (11-8 ) vs. Vargas (14-6), Salazar (5-5) vs. Hammel (5-9)
Series Price: Indians -155, Royals +135
We still have a long ways to go in the regular season, but the feeling I get in this series is that it's kind of a big deal for the Royals. KC is already 5.5 games behind the Indians in the AL Central while being just half-game behind the Angels for the final AL Wild Card. They'll meet again next weekend in Cleveland and they'll play there again for four games from Sept. 13-17, their last meeting of the regular season. The Royals have a 5-4 edge in the nine meetings already this season.
The Indians return home after a successful eight-game road trip where they won six of their last seven to widen their division lead. The up and down Royals are currently trending up with wins in four of their last five. The 'under' has cashed in 11 of the past 15 meetings. And the Indians are currently on a 13-3-1 'under' run improving their MLB-best 'under' record at 70-43-6. That's cashing at a 61 percent rate just by blindly betting them 'under' the total. There's some pretty good pitching matchups in all three games. Other than double-digit mph winds blowing out, the 'under' will be my focus all weekend in this series.
N.Y. Yankees (65-55) at Boston (69-51)
Scheduled Rotation: Montgomery (7-6) vs. Pomeranz (12-4), Sabathia (9-5) vs. Sale (14-4), Gray (7-7) vs. Fister (2-6)
Series Price: Red Sox -170, Yankees +150
The Yankees lost two of three last week at home to the Red Sox, and Station Casinos sports books is saying it's likely to happen again this weekend when they meet at Fenway Park where the Sox are -170 to win the series. However, it's the Yankees that hold a 7-5 season lead. The Red Sox lead the Yanks by four games in the American League East. Boston is currently on a run of winning eight of its last nine home games and winning 11 of its last 12 as a favorite. I love this series traditionally, but I have to admit the last couple of seasons haven't exactly displayed the intensity (A-Rod vs. Varitek), or hate, of years past. Maybe this race down the stretch will start a new chapter in the rivalry.
Oakland (53-68) at Houston (74-47)
Scheduled Rotation: Manea (8-7) vs. Keuchel (10-2), Graveman (3-3) vs. McHugh (0-2), Cotton (5-10) vs. Peacock (10-1)
Series Price: Astros -300, Athletics +260
The Astros have beat up on the A's winning 10 of 12 this season by an 84-46 combined score, but that all came in the first-half. Houston has gone 14-18 in the second-half and their in the middle of an awful 6-13 skid. Is this just a hiccup for Houston or have they really run out of gas? Getting swept at the White Sox eight days ago was a definite low point to what has been an amazing season.
So the question here is whether it's worth taking a shot with Oakland in a couple spots and maybe take them to win the series at +270. The only problem with Oakland is that they've won only 16 times in their last 51 road games. They've also only won six of the past 29 meetings. The Astros rating right now is more about their first-half, so there's going to be 15 cents of value on Oakland in each game. Still, the A's might be just what the Astros needed to bust of this slump.
Seattle (61-61) at Tampa Bay (60-63)
Scheduled Rotation: Ramirez (4-4) vs. Pruitt (6-3), Miranda (7-6) vs. Odorizzi (6-6), Gallardo (5-8 ) vs. Snell (1-6)
Series Price: Rays -145, Mariners +135
The Mariners are 1.5-games behind the Angels for the final AL Wild Card and the Rays are only three back, so this series has a nice story-line behind it. Seattle has won seven of the past nine meetings at Tampa Bay. In their only meeting this season, the M's swept three at Safeco Field in early June. They were blowouts -- all three by at least six runs. The combined score of the series was 28-7. The Mariners won their last two against Baltimore after losing five straight
This series begins a long 12-game road trip that will define who the Mariners really are and where they're going. They are a fun team to watch nightly and the second-half has gone well for them at 18-14 to get them back to .500. Look for lots of runs in this series. Over their last 10 games, Seattle's starters have a 6.43 ERA and the bullpen isn't much better at 4.39. Seven of those last 10 games went 'over' the total. The Westgate SuperBook has Seattle at 40/1 odds and Tampa Bay at 60/1 to win the World Series.
L.A. Angels (62-59) at Baltimore (59-62)
Scheduled Rotation: Heaney (0-0) vs. Hellickson (7-7), Ramirez (10-10) vs. Gausman (9-8 ), Bridwell (7-1) vs. Miley (6-10)
Series Price: Orioles -140, Angels +120
Check out the Angels hanging on to the second AL Wild Card! It may be only a half-game lead over the Royals, but it's still impressive considering this team wasn't expected to do much. They've won seven of their last eight and the run started last week at home against the Orioles, who they took two of three from. They then started a four-game series at Seattle, who were ahead of the Angels in the AL West at the time, and promptly swept the M's. They took two of three at Washington and here they are at Baltimore ready to close out this already successful road trip.
Baltimore has been a completely different team at home going 35-23 this season, but lately they've started weekend series out terribly going 3-13 in their last 16 Friday games. Dating back to last season, the past five meetings between these two have stayed 'under' the number. The Angels are currently on a four-game 'under' streak. Baltimore has lost three of its last four including the last two at Seattle. Riding the hot Angels here to win the series looks to be the winning move with Friday and Sunday's games being their most likely wins.
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MLB Picks of the Day
By Zabo Jones
MLB Favorite of the day: Cleveland Indians -130
The Indians and the Royals are going to be playing at Kauffman Stadium with Trevor Bauer and Jason Vargas starting. The Indians have finally made a nice cushion in the division, with the Twins and the Royals finally falling back. The Royals are still in the thick of the wild card race however, but they are currently behind the Angels.
Trevor Bauer has been one of my favorite pitchers to bet on in the league for a while now. There have been times throughout the season where Indians fans wanted Bauer to be taken out of the rotation, but in recent weeks he has started to pitch closer to his peripherals. This has also correlated with him starting to focus on throwing his curveball much more, to the point that some have said he’s acting like Rich Hill. Bauer’s ERA is still much worse than his peripherals, and there is a chance that it will continue to be much lower, but in recent games, Bauer has shown his upside. I think Bauer is going to continue to be a very good pitcher for the Indians.
At the beginning of the season, some people thought that Jason Vargas was going to compete for a Cy Young award. Vargas was pitching excellently for the Royals, and some people even thought that the Royals would consider making him untouchable. This was before the Royals started to play well, and make a push for the playoffs, but Vargas is not a Cy Young quality pitcher. He has an ERA of 3.45, but an xFIP of 4.83. His batted ball data is no different from previous years, and his strikeout and walk numbers haven’t changed at all. Vargas, and the Royals should be really happy with his performance this season, but he’s not actually this good.
MLB Underdog of the day: Milwaukee Brewers +154
The Brewers and the Rockies are going to be playing in Colorado with two young pitchers starting in Brandon Woodruff for the Brewers and Chad Bettis for the Rockies. The Rockies look like they are locked into a wild card spot in the National League. The Brewers aren’t too likely to make the playoffs, but they have overperformed, and have shown how well their rebuild has gone. They have a great farm system, and may be able to threaten the Cubs in the future.
I don’t have too much to say about either team’s starters, but I want to focus a little bit on Colorado’s offense. On a run scored basis, the Rockies have one of the best offenses in the MLB, but by most other metrics, they have one of the worst offenses in baseball. The Rockies have a team wRC+ of 84, which is only better than the Giants. If players like Ian Desmond were performing better, the Rockies may be closer to league average, but it hasn’t looked like Desmond is going to start to perform better this season. The Rockies are a good team, but with a pitcher who we know almost nothing about on both sides, I would lean towards the team with the better offense. I like the Brewers as a value play in this game.
MLB Over/Under of the day: Arizona Diamondbacks/Minnesota Twins Under 9
The Twins and the Diamondbacks are going to be playing at Target Field in Minnesota with Jose Berrios and Zack Greinke starting. It’s starting to look unlikely that the Twins will make the playoffs, as the Indians are probably out of reach, and they are losing ground in the wild card race. The Diamondbacks meanwhile have a very good probability to win one of the wild card spots in the National League, and I’m not sure that there is any way that the Diamondbacks and Rockies don’t meet in the wild card round.
I don’t think I need to defend Zack Greinke as a great pitcher, so I’m going to focus on Jose Berrios. Berrios is one of the most important players on the Twins roster with respect to the success of their future. Berrios is a young pitcher, who I don’t think will ever establish himself as a top of the rotation starter, but I think has a strong chance to provide value for a team. Berrios has the ability to strike batters out at a very high rate, while avoiding walks pretty effectively. Berrios has a fastball that averages 93, and is heavily reliant on a curveball. While Berrios has a changeup that he’ll throw sometimes, he is largely a two-pitch pitcher. Berrios has been effective enough that I think this game should go under as long as Greinke looks like himself.
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