R. J. White
BUFFALO @ KANSAS CITY | 01/23 | 6:30 PM EST
KANSAS CITY -2
ANALYSIS: Both these offenses are coming off incredible performances in the first round of the playoffs, even if it took the Chiefs a quarter to get going. The Bills dominated the regular-season matchup but are unlikely to go +4 in turnover rate again. If the Bills can get to a lead, an emerging rushing attack can keep Patrick Mahomes off the field by pounding a bad Chiefs rush defense. But this feels like the game where not having Tre'Davious White will doom the Bills; they allowed 488 yards in a loss to the Bucs soon after his injury. With Tyler Bass struggling with kicks last week, the Chiefs may also have the edge in the kicking game. I like K.C. at anything less than -3.
+699 27-18 IN LAST 45 NFL ATS PICKS
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Matt Severance
BUFFALO @ KANSAS CITY | 01/23 | 6:30 PM EST
KANSAS CITY -2.5
ANALYSIS: Did the Bills peak too early? They played about as perfect a game as possible in trashing New England in the Wild-Card Round, but facing Mac Jones in Buffalo compared to Patrick Mahomes in Kansas City is just slightly different. Now we'll see how much the loss of All-Pro cornerback Tre'Davious White will hurt the Bills. The only very good QB the Bills have faced since White was lost for the year was Tom Brady in Week 14 and the Bucs put up 33 points.
+1006 19-8 IN LAST 27 NFL ATS PICKS
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Larry Hartstein
BUFFALO @ KANSAS CITY | 01/23 | 6:30 PM EST
KANSAS CITY -1.5
ANALYSIS: No one looked better than the Bills last weekend, as they wiped out a solid Patriots team by 30. However, teams that win by 28 or more in the playoffs are just 6-14 ATS the next week. The Chiefs, moreover, are a different team than the one that faced Buffalo on Oct. 10. For one, their defense is healthy. Chris Jones, Charvarius Ward and Melvin Ingram weren't on the field that night. And Patrick Mahomes isn't forcing as many throws. K.C. was minus-4 in turnovers in that 38-20 loss, something that's not likely to happen again. With the Bills missing Tre’Davious White, look for Mahomes to put on another show as K.C. advances.
+1805 70-46-1 IN LAST 117 NFL PICKS
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R. J. White
L.A. RAMS @ TAMPA BAY | 01/23 | 3:00 PM EST
TAMPA BAY -3
ANALYSIS: The Rams ran the ball all over the Cardinals, but they'll now face a Bucs rush defense that showed up in a big way against the Eagles. Matthew Stafford will have to make some plays in this game to advance, but he's been an enigma for much of the year, throwing four pick-sixes and eight interceptions in all on his side of the field. The Rams rolled in the first meeting between these teams, but the Bucs are stronger in the secondary this time around, particularly if Sean Murphy-Bunting can play. The Bucs have OL injury issues, but if you can trust any QB to compensate for that, isn't it Tom Brady? Look for Bucs -2.5 and grab it if it becomes available.
+589 27-19 IN LAST 46 NFL ATS PICKS
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Allan Bell
L.A. RAMS @ TAMPA BAY | 01/23 | 3:00 PM EST
L.A. RAMS +3
ANALYSIS: It's a cliche at this point to say this game centers around Tom Brady but we're looking to the other side of the ball this time. Los Angeles boasts a front good enough to get after Tom Brady, something he hasn't seen in a month, and Tampa has some serious offensive line issues coming out of that win last week over Philadelphia. Los Angeles has a new spark back in Cam Akers and this Rams offense is good enough to balance out a tough Tampa defense. Couple that with Brady already 0-2 in his Bucs career against LA and Sean McVay is 12-3 (3-0 this season) in the Eastern Time Zone. The Bucs boast a 38% blitz rate (2nd highest in the NFL) and usually it's where they find their defensive success. The problem is Matthew Stafford is lethal against the blitz, 17 TD's to just one INT this season. When not blitzed those numbers shift to 26 TD's and 16 INT's. Neutralizing the Tampa DL and OL is an equation I'll buy into, give me the Rams plus the points.
+370 17-12 IN LAST 29 NFL PICKS
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Larry Hartstein
L.A. RAMS @ TAMPA BAY | 01/23 | 3:00 PM EST
L.A. RAMS +3
ANALYSIS: Bucs All-Pro right tackle Tristan Wirfs is dealing with a high ankle sprain, making it unlikely he suits up against Von Miller, Leonard Floyd and Aaron Donald. Tampa Bay center Ryan Jensen is expected to play through his own ankle injury. Either way, this matchup sets up well for a Rams team that's peaking at the right time. LA has won six of seven, the loss coming in OT to the 49ers, and just added stud RB Cam Akers to its potent attack. We all know about Matthew Stafford's turnover problems, but one area he has excelled in is against the blitz. The Bucs blitz at the highest rate in the NFL and I don't expect Todd Bowles to change his approach much at this point. If corner Sean Murphy-Bunting (hamstring) can't go, Stafford should pick apart this secondary.
+1805 70-46-1 IN LAST 117 NFL PICKS
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Adam Silverstein
L.A. RAMS @ TAMPA BAY | 01/23 | 3:00 PM EST
L.A. RAMS +3
ANALYSIS: If you told me a year ago I’d be siding with Matthew Stafford over Tom Brady in a playoff game, I’d never believe it. And yet, here we are backing the surging Rams visiting the defending champions. Yes, Tampa Bay has Brady and will be getting Leonard Fournette back, but it has lost key playmakers. Los Angeles is also surging at the right time. The difference comes up front as the Rams monstrous defenders will make life difficult for Bucs’ line. Brady can beat LA over the top, but Stafford can do the same as he excels against pressure. Tampa Bay has not faced a quality opponent in over a month, while LA has survived tough tests down the stretch. The Rams are 2-0 ATS/SU as an underdog and 4-1 ATS/SU between -3 and +3 this season, so I’ll have a sprinkle on LA straight up as well.
+1154 60-44 IN LAST 104 NFL PICKS
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Tom Fornelli
L.A. RAMS @ TAMPA BAY | 01/23 | 3:00 PM EST
UNDER 48.5
ANALYSIS: I have concerns about both offenses in this matchup. Tampa suffered a couple of injuries to its offensive line last week and we saw Tom Brady get battered around because of it. How will that same line hold up against this Rams front? On the other side, while the Rams are much better-equipped to attack Tampa's defensive deficiencies than the Eagles were, I don't trust them to play nearly as well on the road and on grass as they do indoors at home. This won't be a shootout.
+1190 27-14-1 IN LAST 42 NFL PICKS
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Hank Goldberg
BUFFALO @ KANSAS CITY | 01/23 | 6:30 PM EST
KANSAS CITY -1.5
ANALYSIS: I originally liked the Bills in this game, but I changed my mind to Kansas City. Too much is being made of Buffalo's win over the Chiefs earlier in the season. Kansas City was playing poorly back then. But the Chiefs have won 10 of their last 11 games with the only loss being a three-point defeat at Cincinnati. Bills quarterback Josh Allen played a near-perfect game last week at home against New England, but I don't trust him doing that again -- this time on the road. Give me Kansas City.
L.A. RAMS @ TAMPA BAY | 01/23 | 3:00 PM EST
L.A. RAMS +2.5
ANALYSIS: I like the way the Rams are playing. They blew out Arizona on Monday and have won six of their last seven games with their only loss coming to the 49ers. With all of the acquisitions the front office made in the offseason, this team is built to make a run in the playoffs. Remember, the Rams handily beat the Buccaneers earlier this season. I think Aaron Donald & Co. get to Tom Brady a couple of times. This pick may surprise some people, but I love L.A.
+850 14-5 IN LAST 19 NFL PICKS
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