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Early thoughts

Early thoughts 1 month 4 days ago #525948

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Belichek off a loss—- New England

49ers- 3rd defense vs 32nd 3rd def getting points??
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Early thoughts 1 month 3 days ago #525950

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Tonights games:

South Alabama at GA Southern -3.5. I liked GASO from the start, when the line was -6.5. South Bama defense is not good. GASO's losses have come against teams in the top 25. I think GASO will run all over SBama and look for them to easily cover this line. Too much respect given to SBama for this line to move so far down, I just dont see it, not on the road vs a strong run attack. Gimme GASO.

Colorado St -1.5 at Fresno St. Fresno started as the slight favorite. CST has a good returning QB and decent offense. Fresno was sord of lit up by Hawaii last week and I look for more of the same here. Gimme CST

Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers -2 total 51 Interesting and even matchup here. Panthers are scrappy and the Falcons conitnue to lose close games. They allowed Detroit to win on a last play last week, while Carolina fought hard and played well at Saints. This one is tough. I usually like to take the home team on Thursday games, especially if i can get the moneyline cheap. Which Falcons team will show up though? The one that beat up the Vikings in Minn? Im currently riding the fence on this one. I will look to Timmys play here. We know he likes them dogs, so it'll probably be ATL. I can see either team winning this one. Maybe ATL buy up to 3.5 ?
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Early thoughts 1 month 3 days ago #525958

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Iowa has major problems and Northwestern is way better than the Northwestern of a year ago. What do you get there? You get a Hawkeyes bunch under-motivated and a Wildcats crew that is going to overachieve. Northwestern wins out right.

Georgia had an unforced extra week to hear about how bad it stunk against the best team in the sport before Jaylen Waddle got hurt. Kentucky's offense is broken and will turn to a run-first QB against a Georgia defense that is a) legit and b) ticked after hearing about Bama for two weeks. I think the UK side total is also an interesting bet but 13.5 is a great number. Georgia gets well and rolls beyond the 13-point line.

I believe Kansas has quit. Period. End of conversation. I believe Iowa State is the opposite of that. So while I'm not going to lay a monster four-TD-or-more line with the four-TD-or-more machines that are Bama and Clemson, I am more than happy to do it with Iowa State, and that's as much an indictment against the Jayhawks as it is a belief in the Cyclones.

Another four-TD favorite I will believe in is BYU. Why? Well, first, they are going to need style points all year. They are very good and will roll a lot of teams, but to get the attention of the college football elite and the playoff decision makers, BYU 27, Western Kentucky 10 simply will not do. BYU 59, Western Kentucky 13, though gets the point across. And gets us to the pay window.

Alabama has been a first-half juggernaut in its offensive renaissance under Steve Sarkisian. I think Alabama covers, but the 31-point line scares me for the following reasons. First, Alabama's back-ups have not scored a TD all season. Second, I believe, after the Jaylen Waddle injury, Alabama's back-ups will see time much earlier than normal. That said, I am riding on Alabama to get five TDs in the first half by itself, and when the over/under for the first two quarters is 34.5, well, that's all you need to know.

I am in on teams who have had a hugely disappointing loss being overly motivated the next week. I am also in on traditionally average teams that had a huge win the previous week not handling it well. The former scenario is in the Georgia pick. The latter scenario tells me to take Rutgers and the 11 at home against an Indiana team that shocked Penn State last week. (This kind of logic also points me to taking Michigan State and the huge number over Michigan too, but I am a little afraid that Coach Khaki may have a scary offense and a legit dual-threat QB.)

Minnesota is ticked and ol' boat rower PJ Fleck will have the Gophers jacked. (Rushmore of gophers starts with the Caddyshack critter, goes to Dave Winfield, the former Minnesota star that was drafted in four different leagues across three sports, Gopher from Love Boat and the Gopher Hole Museum in Alberta, Canada. Hey, how bout a Molson? Lay the 20 friends. Truly. Maryland STEE-inks.

I think Jeff Brohm is good at this college football coaching thing. I do. And yes, last week he was not on the sideline as Purdue exploited in-fighting Iowa, but this week comes a visit from Illinois, which may be the worst team in the Big Ten not named Maryland, which is a shame because we all know that Maryland a) should be better and b) should be in the ACC.
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Early thoughts 1 month 3 days ago #525962

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One of the newsletters this week mentioned that the home team in the Caro/Atl match ups is 1-6 ATS in last 7. I didn't fact check it but, it might be worth a look for the dog play here.
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Early thoughts 1 month 3 days ago #525979

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7:30 p.m. ET: Minnesota (0-1) at Maryland (0-1)

Both of these Big Ten foes are coming off blowout losses in their season openers. Minnesota got crushed by powerhouse Michigan 49-24, failing to cover as 3-point dogs. Maryland got absolutely demolished by Northwestern 43-3, failing to cover as 13-point dogs. This line opened with Minnesota listed as a 20.5-point road favorite. The public isn't scared off by the big spread and is happy to fade a Terps team who just lost by 40-points. However, despite a majority of bets laying the points, we've seen this line fall from Minnesota -20.5 to -19.5. This signals some sharp reverse line movement with pros grabbing the points with Maryland. Pros and Joes seem to be united on the over. We've seen this total rise from 59 to 61.

Lean over 61 and Maryland plus 21.5

9 p.m. ET: East Carolina (1-3) at Tulsa (2-1)

On paper, this American Conference showdown looks like a layup with the home team. East Carolina has lost three of their four games, most recently falling to Navy 27-23, failing to cover as 3.5-point dogs. On the other hand, Tulsa has won two straight and just crushed South Florida 42-13, easily covering as 12-point favorites. The public also remembers Tulsa hanging tough against Oklahoma State in the opener, losing 16-7 but covering as 24-point dogs. This line opened with Tulsa listed as an 18-point home favorite. The public is laying the points, but we've seen the line drop to 17. This signals some respected money hitting ECU and the points. ECU has value as a contrarian double-digit conference road dog with a line move in their favor.

Lean ECU plus 17.5

9:45 p.m. ET: Hawaii (1-0) at Wyoming (0-1)

This late night Mountain West matchup features the sharpest line move of Friday's tripleheader slate. Hawaii (1-0) is coming off a 34-19 win over Fresno State, winning outright as a 3-point dog. Conversely, Wyoming lost their season opener in a shootout 37-34 to Nevada, losing outright as 3-point favorites. This line opened with Hawaii listed as a 1.5-point road favorite. Tickets are split, yet we've seen this line flip toward Wyoming, pushing the Cowboys from a 1.5-point dog to a 1-point favorite. Wyoming has value as a buy low, sell high dog-to-favorite play. Pros might prefer betting the moneyline in this one, with Wyoming roughly -115.

Lean Wyoming ML -115
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