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NCAAF Betting News & Match-Ups For Week 8

NCAAF Betting News & Match-Ups For Week 8 4 weeks 2 hours ago #514053

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Betting news, trends, odds and predictions for from various handicappers and websites for Wednesday 10/16/19
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NCAAF Betting News & Match-Ups For Week 8 4 weeks 2 hours ago #514054

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NCAAF Betting News & Match-Ups For Week 8 4 weeks 2 hours ago #514055

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Hot & Not Report - Week 8
Matt Blunt

Week of October 14th

There were some strong results if you followed last week's piece that touched on NFL divisional games, as the majority of those trends held true in Week 6.

Road teams managed to sweep the board against the spread with Carolina, Cincinnati and San Francisco all cashing tickets on Sunday, with the Lions the only remaining team in that spot tonight on MNF. Carolina dominated Tampa Bay from start to finish, the Bengals were able to sneak through the back door against Baltimore, and San Francisco brought their best stuff to LA in beating the Rams in a game that many viewed as a measuring stick for the now 5-0 SU 49ers.

At the same time, NFL division games staying 'under' the number posted a 2-1 record as well on Sunday, with only the Panthers/Bucs game over in London sailing 'over' the number. Given the different circumstances of that game with no true home field – and London games tendency to go over as the NFL wants to make sure they put on a show over there – on paper that was the easiest division game to avoid going 'under' on the Week 6 card, especially with it being the first divisional rematch game of the year and the flip-flop theory seemingly alive and well in that regard again. Hindsight is always 20-20 though, but the good news is that had you played all three of those games you'd still have come out on top.

This week I'm taking a break from the pro game as there is one specific conference in college football that deserves noting. So I'd like to wish a happy Columbus Day to everyone - and a happy Thanksgiving to all you Canadians out there – as Columbus (the place), has a tie to this week's piece as we look at what's been going on in the Big 10.

Who's Hot

Home teams in Big 10 games are 11-2 SU the past two weeks – 9-4 ATS in that span

It's been quite the 14 days for Big 10 teams that play in front of their adoring fans, as that SU run is pretty impressive. Home sides went 5-1 SU in conference play this past week, after going 6-1 SU in Week 6. And the 9-4 ATS record could have been a little better considering Penn State's 35-7 win over Purdue in Week 6 missed out on cashing an ATS ticket by the hook.

What makes a run like this intriguing from a betting perspective is the six Big 10 games we've got on the schedule this upcoming week. It all starts with those boys from Columbus, Ohio – the Ohio State Buckeyes – heading out on the road on Friday night to face a Northwestern team as heavy, heavy chalk. Ohio State is currently laying 27.5 points on the road for that game, and that's a lofty number for any road team to cover in today's game, let alone one going up against quite a run for home teams within the conference right now.

The Buckeyes aren't the only Big 10 team laying heavy chalk on the road either this week, as Wisconsin's spread is even bigger (-30.5) for their road trip to Illinois, and Minnesota is laying about four TD's for their contest at Rutgers. Given that the outright record of those three road teams – Ohio State, Wisconsin, and Minnesota – is 18-0 SU and their opponents sit at 2-13 SU, the numbers are somewhat warranted, but don't be surprise to see at least one of those heavy chalk visitors fail to cover their lofty spread.

On the flip side of that equation we've got two other Big 10 games where the home team is laying chalk, the most notable being Penn State has they host Michigan under the lights. The “September Warriors” in the Iowa Hawkeyes – every year Iowa beats up on cupcakes and Iowa State in September to earn a Top 25 ranking and promptly loses it in October when the competition level rises – are the other team laying chalk with Purdue coming to town. Indiana/Maryland is yet to have a line as of this writing but that's the other Big 10 game on the board this week.

But it's the Michigan/Penn State game that becomes highly intriguing given this run for Big 10 home teams, because Michigan is already a program that's been labelled as chokers once again this year. There is never any love for Harbaugh's squad in these type of big games, and with the number on Penn State currently climbing to approach double digits, it will be very interesting to see how this game shakes out. My initial reaction is that if there ever was a game to go against a run by the home teams like this, this would be it, but you can't deny there are plenty of good things (revenge, being undefeated, being at home) working for the Nittany Lions here as well.

Penn State backers will assuredly use this great run by Big 10 home teams as an additional layer of support for why the Nittany Lions are getting their support, but whether that ends up being the right side, we've got six days to debate it and then find out.


Who's Not

Backing 'Overs' in Big 10 games the past two weeks – 2-11 O/U run against closing number

Similar to the great 'under' run in division games in the NFL that was touched on last week, this Big 10 conference games have been an 'under' bettors haven the past 14 days.

A run like that on low-scoring games is a combination of superior teams blowing out inferior teams, keeping those weaker foes off the scoreboard and then running out the clock with reserves, but also quality foes – especially on defense – doing battle with one another as well.

This week's card has a bit of both in that regard as we've got all those huge road favorites that were already discussed likely to fall on the former side of things if things go according to plan for them. However, if those home teams like Northwestern, Illinois, and Rutgers do end up keeping that trend going for home sides, you've got to figure they'd do so by putting up a few scores to put a scare in their opponent. It's what we saw from Illinois this past week when they hosted Michigan, and I wouldn't put it past them or Northwestern to have a similar type of effort this week.

Then again, Ohio State and Wisconsin could put the clamps down on defense rather early and cruise to blowout wins (as expected) that fail to see enough total points be put up to break this great run of 'unders.'

The Michigan/Penn State game is likely to see some initial 'under' love when totals come out as they fit the style of two elite defenses squaring off with points being at a premium. Both of those teams were on the right side of that style of game against Iowa the past two weeks, but the series history between the two schools is also on a 4-0 O/U run the past four years, and that includes the loser scoring 13 or fewer points in each of the past three meetings.

Yet, just like the initial feel of going against the home team trend for this game that I talked about earlier, this would be the one game where I'd strongly consider going against this 'under' trend as well. Obviously we've got to wait to see what number gets posted for this total, but it's definitely something to consider.
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NCAAF Betting News & Match-Ups For Week 8 4 weeks 2 hours ago #514056

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College football Week 8 opening odds: Early bettors peek at Penn State in clash with Michigan
Patrick Everson

College football rolls into Week 8, and in a change of pace, the biggest game is in the Big 10, rather than the Southeastern Conference. We check in on that matchup and three others, with insights from Matt Chaprales, head of content for PointsBet USA.

No. 16 Michigan Wolverines at No. 7 Penn State Nittany Lions (-7.5)

Penn State is undefeated and very much in early College Football Playoff discussion heading into this prime-time game in Happy Valley. The Nittany Lions (6-0 SU, 4-2 ATS) engaged in a defensive slog at Iowa in Week 7, coming away with a 17-12 victory as 3.5-point favorites.

Michigan cannot take another loss and reasonably expect to stay in the CFP conversation, thanks to its Week 4 blowout setback at Wisconsin. In Week 7, the Wolverines (5-1 SU, 2-4 ATS) blew almost all of a 28-0 lead at Illinois, with the score 28-25 early in the fourth quarter. Jim Harbaugh’s squad ultimately won 42-25, but fell short as 24.5-point faves.

“Early action has laid the 7.5 with Penn State, meaning the first move looks like it would be to 8,” Chaprales said. “Either way, with two high-profile teams battling under the lights, we’re anticipating good two-way action on this game.”

No. 12 Oregon Ducks at No. 23 Washington Huskies (+2.5)

At midseason, Oregon is the Pac-12’s best hope for a CFP bid, making this contest extremely important. The Ducks (5-1 SU, 3-3 ATS) bounced back from a season-opening neutral-site loss to Auburn by winning five in a row. In Week 7, Oregon hammered Colorado 45-3 laying 23.5 points at home.

Washington fully expected to be a CFP contender this year, but two outright losses as double-digit chalk – home against California and at Stanford – shattered those expectations. The Huskies (5-2 SU and ATS) followed the Stanford setback by ripping Arizona 51-27 laying 6 points on the road in Week 7.

“Oregon enters with the superior body of work, while Washington has already stumbled a few times in conference play, losing twice as big favorites,” Chaprales said. “Given that, we opened the Ducks as short road favorites and wouldn’t be surprised if this number moves further in their direction.”

That’s exactly what happened by Monday afternoon, with the line ticking up to Oregon -3.

No. 9 Florida Gators at South Carolina Gamecocks (Off)

Florida acquitted itself well in a very difficult two-seek stretch of SEC play, but couldn’t muster two victories. Following a Week 6 home win over Auburn, the Gators (6-1 SU, 4-3 ATS) went to Louisiana State as 14.5-point pups and were in it almost the entire way before bowing out 42-28.

South Carolina wouldn’t normally be worth a mention in this space, except that it’s coming off a monster upset and is 4-1 ATS in its last five games. The Gamecocks (3-3 SU, 4-2 ATS) were 20.5-point road ‘dogs against unbeaten Georgia, but came away with a 20-17 double-overtime victory.

Gamecocks QB Ryan Hilinski left in the third quarter of the big win, due to a knee sprain. It appears he will play this week, but it’s not yet certain.

“This game is currently off the board, pending the status of Hilinski,” Chaprales said. “Assuming he’s a go, it will be interesting to see how the public reacts to this team, on the heels of one of the biggest upsets in recent memory.”

If Hilinski indeed is cleared to play, Chaprales expects to open Florida around -6.

No. 18 Baylor Bears at Oklahoma State Cowboys (-3.5)

Oklahoma is rightly all the rage in the Big 12, but flying under the radar is an unbeaten Baylor team. The Bears (6-0 SU, 3-3 ATS) barely kept their perfect record intact in Week 7, edging Texas Tech 33-30 in double overtime giving 10.5 points at home.

Oklahoma State, coming off a bye week, certainly knows a little bit about Texas Tech, as well. The Cowboys (4-2 SU, 5-1 ATS) went to Lubbock as 9-point Week 6 favorites and exited with a 45-39 outright loss.

“This game opened Oklahoma State -3.5 and ticked down to 3 on the strength of some early Baylor interest,” Chaprales said. “The Bears have impressed in a weak Big 12 so far, but the market remains a bit skeptical about their 6-0 start, evidenced by them catching points against a team that’s dropped two of its past three.”
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NCAAF Betting News & Match-Ups For Week 8 3 weeks 4 days ago #514192

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Saturday’s top 13 games
Duke is 4-2, scoring 41+ points in all four wins; they’re 2-0 on road, winning at MTSU, Virginia Tech- their only loss other than Alabama ((42-3) was 33-30 at home to Pitt. Blue Devils covered five of last six games as a road underdog. Last four Duke games went over the total. Virginia just lost at ND/at Miami after a 4-0 start; under Mendenhall, Cavaliers are 6-6 as a road underdog- they averaged only 49 rushing yards per game the last three games. Virginia won its last four games with Duke, all by 7+ points; Blue Devils lost their last seven visits to Charlottesville.

Indiana won three of its last four games with Maryland, with average total in those games, 75.0. Teams split last two games played here. Terps ran ball for 353 yards in LY’s 35-32 Indiana win, but Hoosiers were +3 in turnovers. Indiana is 3-2 vs I-A teams, scoring 31+ points in four of the five games; they’re 0-2 in true road games, losing at Ohio St (51-10), Michigan St (40-31)- under Allen, they’re 2-4 ATS as road favorites. Maryland has played only one close game (20-17 loss at Temple); over last decade, Terps are 11-17 ATS when getting points at home.

Florida State won nine of last ten games with Wake Forest; they’re series underdog for only 2nd time in last 22 meetings. FSU won its last three visits to Wake, by 7-8-56 points; favorites are 4-2-1 ATS in last seven series games. Seminoles are 3-3 SU, giving up 31+ points in four of six games; they’re 1-4-1 ATS in last six games as a road underdog, and gave up 320 RY in LW’s loss at Clemson. Deacons lost 62-59 to Louisville LW, their first loss in six games; they allowed 1,053 TY in last two games, 477 on ground. Under Clawson, Wake is 8-9 as a home favorite.

Utah lost six of last eight games with Arizona State, getting upset as 8-10 point favorites last two years. Underdogs covered four of last six series games. Sun Devils won three of last four visits to SLC. Utes are 5-1, scoring 90 points in last two games, gaining 501.7 TY/game in last four; Utes are 9-3 ATS in last dozen games as a home favorite. ASU scored with 0:34 left LW to nip Wazzu 38-34, their 5th win in six games; they gave up 466 PY but pulled the game out- under Edwards, Sun Devils are 8-2 ATS as an underdog.

Favorites covered 14 of last 16 Oregon-Washington games; Ducks won five of last six trips to Seattle, losing 38-3 (+17) in last one in ’17. Oregon won its last five games since an opening loss to Auburn, allowing total of only 25 points in the wins; Ducks won only true road game 21-6 at Stanford- they don’t have a win by fewer than 10 points. Oregon is 17-7 ATS in last 24 games as a road favorite. 5-2 Washington won 51-27 at Arizona LW after trailing 17-13 at half; since 2013, Huskies are 1-4 ATS when getting points at home. Pac-12 home dogs are 3-3 so far this year.

USC is 3-3, losing three of last four games; they’ve started three QB’s already- the 2 guy is the current starter. Trojans allowed 308 YR in LW’s 30-27 loss at Notre Dame- the head coach’s job is hanging by a thread. USC is 4-10 ATS in last 14 games as a home favorite- they won their last six gams wth Arizona, winning last four games played here, by 14-8-7-7 points. Arizona is 3-2 vs I-A teams but allowed 445+ TY in last three games; Wildcats gave up 41 points, 441 TY to a I-AA team- they’re Pac-12 home favorites are 7-10 ATS TY.

Washington State lost its last three games after a 3-0 start, allowing 143 points that included blowing a 49-17 lead at home to UCLA- they fired their DC 12 days ago. Coogs gave up 1,715 TY in their three losses, are 18-12 ATS in last 30 games as a home favorite. Wazzu beat Colorado 31-7/28-0 the last two years; Buffaloes lost 27-0/28-3 in last two visits to Pullman. Colorado lost three of last four games; they’ve given up 30+ points, 444+ TY in every game this year. Buffs are 4-6-1 ATS in last 11 games as a road underdog.

How does South Carolina react after shocking Georgia 20-17 (+20) in OT LW? Gamecocks were outgained 468-297 by the Dawgs, but won anyway- over last 10+ years, Carolina is 11-5 ATS when getting points at home. Trap game for Florida after their 42-28 loss at LSU LW, their first loss after a 6-0 start; Gators won their other road game 29-21 (-10) at Kentucky. Florida is 3-5 ATS in last eight games as a road favorite, 0-2 TY. Florida won three of last four games with South Carolina; they lost three of last four visits to Columbia.

TCU won four of last five games with Kansas State, winning 26-6/52-45 in last two visits to the Little Apple; underdogs covered four of last six series games. Horned Frogs are 2-2 vs I-A foes, giving up 41-49 points in the losses (SMU/Iowa St), 13-14 in wins (Purdue/Kansas)- they’re 6-4 ATS in last ten games as a road favorite. K-State lost its last two games after 3-0 start, allowing 952 yards; Wildcats are 12-5 ATS in last 17 games as a home underdog. Big X home teams are 8-4 ATS in conference games, 3-2 when they’re the underdog.

6-0 Baylor has road wins at Rice (21-13), K-State (31-12); they allowed 510 TY in LW’s 33-30 home win over Texas Tech. Under Rhule, Bears are 7-5 ATS on the road. Oklahoma State lost four of last five games with Baylor, which lost 10 of last 11 visits to Stillwater, but OSU averaged 550+ TY in last four series meetings. Cowboys lost two of last three games after a 3-0 start- they allowed 36-45 points in losses at Texas (36-30), Texas Tech (45-35). OSU covered six of its last eight home games. Big X home teams are 8-4 ATS in conference games.

Texas A&M split its first six games, losing 24-10 (+16) at Clemson in its only true road game; Aggies are 4-2 ATS in last six games as road favorites. A&M won 38-24/31-24 in last couple of games with Ole Miss; favorites covered three of last four series games, with Aggies winning three of last four visits to Oxford. Ole Miss lost three of last four games, despite running ball for 896 yards in last three games; under Luke, Rebels are 0-5 ATS as a home underdog. SEC home underdogs are 5-3 ATS in conference games this season.

Iowa State is 4-2 with two losses by total of three points; they were held under 100 RY in both their losses. Under Campbell, Cyclones are 4-2 ATS as a road favorite- they won/covered their last two games, routing TCU/West Virginia. ISU won its last three games with Texas Tech; they split last four trips to Lubbock, but won last visit here 31-13 (+7) in ’17. Red Raiders lost three of last four games, giving up 499+ TY in all four games. Tech is 9-7 ATS in last 16 games as a home underdog. Big X home teams are 8-4 ATS in conference games, 3-2 when they’re the dog.

Michigan won its last three games since getting whacked 35-14 at Wisconsin; under Harbaugh, Wolverines are 1-4 ATS as a road underdog. Michigan allowed an average of only 223 ypg in its last three games; favorites covered last five Penn State-Michigan tilts, with Wolverines winning four of the five games. Michigan lost four of last five visits to Happy Valley; home side won eight of last ten series games. PSU allowed only 49 points in its 6-0 start, winning 17-12 at Iowa LW, by far the best team they’ve played; under Franklin, Lions are 19-13-1 ATS as a home favorite.
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