Game: (309) Air Force at (310) BOISE STATE
Date/Time: Sep 20 2019 9:00 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Bookmaker
Play Rating: 4%
Play: BOISE STATE -8.0 (-110)
PLAY: (310) BOISE ST -8
RATING: 4% PLAY
First let’s start by saying we are getting great line value here with Boise St as this number should be much higher in my opinion but the public is overreacting to the fact that Air Force beat Colorado on the road last week. We were on Air Force last week because we were going against Colorado who 2 weeks before had beaten their instate rival Colorado St. then last week was coming off their upset of former Big 12 rival Nebraska where they were coming off a come from behind win. Colorado rallied from 17 down to win in OT. There was no way Colorado was mentally prepared to handle the Air Force option something they don’t see in the PAC 12. That was a HUGE advantage for Air Force. No such advantage this week as Boise St. sees this option attack every year in Conference Play. Boise St basically has had two weeks to prepare because they played Portland St last week who they blew out 45-10. Trust me they worked more on Air Force last week than they did preparing for Portland St. The other thing giving us line value here is the fact that in Boise St. other home game as a 14 point favorite they only won 14-7 over Marshall. Well that game was 6 days after they upset Florida St in the hot humid conditions of Florida St. Boise St was both spent and flat as a pancake that day against Marshall. Last thing to consider is Air Force just played a game in the altitude of Colorado and went to overtime and now comes back with a short week on the road. This is a big advantage for Boise St. who is averaging over 500 yards a game this year. Boise St wins 35-20.
TAKE BOISE ST as MARCO’S 4% FRIDAY NIGHT CFB GAME OF THE MONTH
+EV: CFB 2u: 309 Air Force Falcons +8 -105 (Friday, September 20th)
3* 305 Utah -4
Was at this game two years ago at Coliseum when Coach Whitt went for 2 in last seconds of regulation for the win. Bad play call as they elected to throw instead of running like they had the play prior for the TD. SC was gashed on D and was vulnerable to the run at that time. The Utes extracted some revenge last season at Rice Eccles Stadium but Coach Whittingham will get this one too. Zack Moss is one of the toughest RB's in the country and Britain Covey is almost back from last 7 months of injuries. The Utes D-Line is the strongest and deepest in the country and should wear down the Trojan O-Line. Tyler Huntley is a solid duel threat QB as well for Utah. Meanwhile the Trojans have a good you*ng QB in Slovis but he was under duress in Provo last week and threw 3-picks......he may get sacked several times in this one which will help negate getting the ball out to the second best collective receiving corp in the country. Utes by 8-20 points
Alex B Smith Sports
9/20 1* Utah -3.5
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