Betting Recap - Week 12
By Daniel Dobish
College Football Week 12 Results
Straight Up 52-13
Against the Spread 33-32
Straight Up 44-21
Against the Spread 29-36
The largest underdogs to win straight up
Kansas State (+19.5, ML +800) at Oklahoma State, 45-40
Akron (+14.5, ML +450) vs. Ohio, 37-34
Tulane (+9.5, ML +270) vs. Houston, 20-17
The largest favorites to cover
Florida State (-52) vs. Delaware State, 77-6
Alabama (-49) vs. Mercer, 56-0
Clemson (-46) vs. The Citadel, 61-3
Top 25 Notes
Miami-Florida had a slight hangover after their dominating win against Notre Dame a week ago. They trailed Virginia 28-14 in the third quarter before the alarm clock went off at Hard Rock Stadium. The Hurricanes then proceeded to rattle off 30 unanswered points for the 16-point win, but the Cavaliers were still able to hang on for the road cover. Miami might be 10-0 SU overall, but they're just 2-4 ATS over their past six, and 1-4 ATS in five games as a double-digit favorite this season. ... Alabama had their annual November cupcake game, essentially resting before playing in the Iron Bowl against Auburn next week. Mercer of the FCS was this season's sacrificial lamb, and it went about as well as you would expect for the Bears. The Tide led 35-0 at half, and they went on to win 56-0. Hey, at least the Bears got paid over $1 million this season to be punched around by both Iron Bowl participants.
Auburn struggled with Mercer earlier this season, winning just 24-10 despite being a 40-point favorite. And they nearly lost to FCS Jacksonville State a couple of seasons ago, surviving the Gamecocks in overtime back in 2015. The Tigers faced Louisiana-Monroe, the last unranked team to beat Nick Saban and Alabama back in 2007. So, did the Warhawks pull off the big upset Saturday? Nah. It was 7-7 after the first quarter, and just 14-7 in favor of the Tigers at the half. However, the 38-point favorite Tigers pulled away in the second half, although ULM was never in danger of failing to cover. As a favorite of 21 or more points, Auburn is a dismal 0-2-2 ATS this season.
Memphis can score with the best of them, and their high-octane offense was on display at the Liberty Bowl on Saturday against visiting Southern Methodist. The Mustangs held their own after the first quarter, and they were down just 45-38 after three quarters. However, the Tigers were too much for Chad Morris' group, running away for a 66-45 win and cover. The Tigers rank fourth in points scored (44.7 PPG) and sixth in total yards (519.5), but 113th in the FBS in defense with 452.3 yards per game allowed. More importanty, though, the Tigers are 4-0 ATS over their past four games, and 5-0-1 ATS over the past six.
West Virginia entered as a three-point favorite against visiting Texas. The Longhorns turned the tables on the Mountaineers, who will tumble out of the Top 25. The Longhorns improved to 4-1 ATS in five road games, while the Mountaineers slipped 0-2-1 ATS over their past three games at Milan Puskar Stadium in Morgantown. The 'under' has cashed in three straight for WVU.
Georgia bounced back with a 42-13 win against Kentucky in between the hedges. The 'over' has now cashed in five of the past six for UGA, while the Bulldogs are just 2-3 ATS over their past five overall. It was Georgia's first cover of the season as a favorite of 18 or more points after going 0-3 ATS in their first three tries.
Big Five Conference Report
Florida State took out a season of frustration on poor ol' Delaware State of the FCS, 77-6. The Hornets were no match for the Seminoles, even a beaten and battered 'Noles team. FSU covered the biggest spread on the board Saturday (52 points), and they had scored a total of 72 points over their past four games combined. The cover was also the first of the season for the Seminoles after opening the season 0-7-2 ATS through the first nine. ... North Carolina picked up a win on FCS Western Carolina, 65-10, improving to 3-8 SU. Suddenly, the Tar Heels are 3-0 ATS over the past three outings. ... Duke put the brakes on a six-game slide, topping Georgia Tech by a 43-20 count. The Blue Devils started out 4-0 SU/ATS, then were 0-6 SU/0-5-1 ATS over the past six, before finally covering again. The 'over' result snapped an eight-game 'under' run, too.
Purdue shocked Iowa in Kinnick Stadium by a 24-15 score. The Boilermakers improved to 5-6 SU, and can punch their ticket to a bowl with a win at home in the Battle for the Old Oaken Bucket next week against Indiana. ... Speaking of the Hoosiers, they outlasted Rutgers 41-0 at 'The Rock' for their second straight game. Whomever wins in West Lafayette next week will win their sixth game and a trip to the postseason. IU entered Saturday's game 0-6-1 ATS over their past seven, and they're 0-4 ATS in their past four road games heading into next week's battle in Purdue.
Oklahoma State was dumped by Kansas State in Stillwater, as the Wildcats were the biggest underdog (+19) to win outright on Saturday. K-State became bowl eligible in grand style, improving to 3-0 SU over their past three road games, and 2-0 ATS over the past two away from home. They haven't covered back-to-back games since Sept. 2-9. ... Kansas didn't want to shake Baker Mayfield's hand before Saturday's tilt in Oklahoma, and the quarterback made them pay. He even showed them something below his waist. But the Jayhawks were able to cover for the second straight outing, and they're 3-1 ATS over their past four.
Oregon took care of Arizona by a 48-28 score, securing bowl eligibility in the process. They improved to 5-1 SU/4-2 ATS in six games at Autzen Stadium, which is where they'll host Oregon State in the Civil War next week. It's weird to see, but the 'under' has been hitting frequently for the Ducks. The under is 5-1 over the past six outings, and 7-2 over their past nine outings. ... Washington held off pesky Utah by a 33-30 count, never coming close to covering a 17 1/2-point number. The Huskies are a poor 2-3 ATS over their past five outings heading into the Apple Cup next week against Washington State. The Cougars were off this past weekend, and enter the rivalry game 7-2 ATS over the past nine outings.
South Carolina faced one of the better FCS opponents of the weekend in Wofford, a team that entered 9-1 SU. The Terriers led 3-0 after the first quarter, but the Gamecocks ended up getting some distance in the second half. ... Tennessee continues to struggle, falling 30-10 to Louisiana State. The Vols are 0-7 in the SEC, as is next week's opponent, Vanderbilt. The Vols and Commodores will battle to avoid the basement at Neyland Stadium in a game that is sure to draw in the television ratings.
UCF won 45-19 on the road at Temple, avoiding the upset in a place many have fallen before. The Knights are 10-0 SU, but their cover was the first since Oct. 14, entering the game 0-3-1 ATS over the past four. ... Tulane scored a 20-17 win against Houston, keeping their dreams alive for a bowl berth. The Green Wave have won back-to-back conference games. The 'under' is 3-0 over their past three outings, too. ... South Florida was unable to cover for the fourth straight game, but they topped Tulsa 27-20 to move to 9-1 SU leading up to their huge matchup against UCF next Friday.
Florida Atlantic moved to 7-0 SU in Conference USA play, punching their ticket to the league's championship game with a 52-24 win against rival Florida International. The Owls are an impressive 6-1 ATS over their past seven conference battles heading into next week's regular season finale at Charlotte. ... The 49ers haven't exactly been 'Packing the Mine' this season, mostly because they're 1-10 SU. They were buried 66-21 at Southern Mississippi in Hattiesburg, slipping to 5-6 ATS on the season. However, they are a respectable 5-2 ATS over the past seven despite their losing ways.
Temperatures were around freezing with winds around 20-25 mph, so you figure the weather would favor Wyoming. However, it was the California team from the Valley, Fresno State, winning 13-7 in the frigid conditions. The 'under' has cashed in five straight for the Cowboys, and it's 9-2 in 11 games overall. ... Colorado State bounced back after their implosion last week against Boise State, 42-14 in a win over San Jose State. However, the Rams were unable to cover for the sixth consecutive game to close out their regular season.
Coastal Carolina posted a 13-7 win at the Kibbie Dome in Moscow, Idaho in the final FBS home game for the Vandals. Idaho is leaving the Sun Belt Conference and dropping down to the FCS level to join the Big Sky Conference. ... Georgia Southern was one of just two winless FBS teams entering the weekend. They not only won, they pounded South Alabama, 52-0. It was the first shutout of an FBS opponent in Eagles' history.
If you had the 'over' (40.5) in Minnesota-Northwestern, my condolensces. First off, things didn't get off to a great start with a scoreless first quarter. However, the Wildcats posted 25 points in the second half to get things on track. While the Gophers didn't help you at all, getting blanked in the 39-0 game, it was a blocked extra point and two failed two-point conversion attempts that made the difference.
If you had Rice (+240) on the moneyline, first off, you're a lot more adventurous than I. Secondly, you took a bad beat, as they held a 21-17 lead until :37 left in regulation in Norfolk when Old Dominion pulled off the 24-21 win.
The 'over' (77) in Arizona-Oregon looked like a sure thing, as the Ducks scored with 13:54 left in regulation to take a 45-28 lead. The Ducks drove back into the red zone, but had to settle for a 24-yard field with 8:09 to go, moving within one point of the 'over'. That's how it stayed.
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