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Free Picks: Free Service Plays for Saturday, November 18th, 2017

Free Picks: Free Service Plays for Saturday, November 18th, 2017 4 weeks 14 hours ago #461398

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Free Picks for Saturday, November 18th, 2017 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers
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Free Picks: Free Service Plays for Saturday, November 18th, 2017 4 weeks 14 hours ago #461400

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Brandon Lee

UCLA vs. USC
Play: USC -16

The ugly loss to Notre Dame has lit a fire under this USC team, as they have since went a perfect 3-0 SU and 3-0 ATS, beating Arizona St on the road 48-17 as a 5-point favorite, Arizona 49-35 as a 7-point home favorite and Colorado 38-24 as a 13.5-point favorite. Even with them laying nearly 3-scores, I think there's some great value with the Trojans in this one.

As you can see from the scores, USC's offense has been racking up the points. They are simply going to have a field day here against UCLA and that horrific defense of theirs. The Bruins simply can't stop the run, as they rank 130th in the country giving up 302.3 ypg on the ground. USC had over 330 yards rushing in both their wins over the Arizona schools and should easily top that mark here.

I know UCLA can score and that offense is the only reason this line isn't bigger, I just don't think they will be able to score enough to keep this within the number. USC's defense isn't great, but it's capable of getting stops. Not to mention I think they are going to come out fired up in their final home game and last tune up before the Pac-12 title game.

Lets also not overlook how bad the Bruins have been on the road, UCLA is just 2-9 ATS in their last 11 road games and are only scoring 22.8 ppg away from home during this stretch. It's also a plus they won last week, as they are just 1-8 ATS in their last 9 off a conference win. USC on the other hand is 12-3 ATS in their last 15 home games off 3 or more consecutive wins.
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Free Picks: Free Service Plays for Saturday, November 18th, 2017 4 weeks 14 hours ago #461401

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Stephen Nover

UConn vs. Boston College
Play: Under 50

Neither of these teams are what you would call high-scoring. Connecticut ranks 94th in scoring at 24.6 points per game. Boston College is even worse rating 104th in scoring at 23.3 points a game.

Both teams are using backup quarterbacks. BC quarterback Darius Webb has thrown just two touchdown passes in 109 throws. He's replacing Anthony Brown, who had started 10 straight games for the Eagles, but suffered a season-ending knee injury in the team's 17-14 loss to North Carolina last Saturday.

David Pindell is UConn's starting quarterback now replacing Bryant Shirreffs, who had started 29 of the Huskies' last 35 games. Shirreffs suffered a concussion two weeiks ago and no longer is going to play. He is fourth on UConn's all-time passing yardage list. Pindell has yet to prove he is an efficient downfield passer.

Making it worse are the probable weather conditions. This game is being played at Fenway Park, which we all know is a baseball field. Look for a slippery, slow track with rain in the forecast and wind. The forecast is for the rain and wind to get heavy before the end of the game.

The combination of backup quarterbacks and bad weather should ensure conservative game plans that feature lots of running and short passing, which eat clock.

Boston College shut out Connecticut, 30-0, in last year's meeting. The Huskies were held to 121 yards and eight first downs in that defeat.
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Free Picks: Free Service Plays for Saturday, November 18th, 2017 4 weeks 14 hours ago #461402

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Scott Spreitzer

Michigan vs. Wisconsin
Play: Michigan +7½

Last week, Wisconsin played with a chip on their shoulder, ranked 8th in the CFB playoff rankings and they took to the field and hammered an Iowa team off a big win over Ohio State. This week, Wisconsin understands if they win out, they're going to be in the playoffs. That's a different kind of pressure and a little tougher to overcome. One issue I have with the Badgers is that they have just one win over an impressive opponent and that was last week's victory over the Hawkeyes, who were in a vulnerable spot. We don't believe the Badgers have enough offense to pull away and win by margin against this Michigan defense. Badger QB Alex Hornibrook piled-up a lot of his positive numbers in the first three games of the season. The Wisconsin signal caller had an 8:1 TD/INT ratio against BYU, FAU, and Utah State. But he's thrown more INTs (11) than TDs (10) over his last seven games. We believe defenses will dominate this one and looks for the Wolverines to hang the number.
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Free Picks: Free Service Plays for Saturday, November 18th, 2017 4 weeks 14 hours ago #461404

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John Martin

Marshall vs. Texas-San Antonio
Play: Texas-San Antonio Pk

The UTSA Roadrunners need another win to get bowl eligible. They have a tough road game at Louisiana Tech next week, so I think they realize they need to take care of business against Marshall here tonight. It's Senior Night and this is a veteran team that has accomplished quite a lot the past two seasons. The Roadrunners are better than their 5-4 record too when you consider all four of their losses have come by 7 points or less and by a combined 17 points. That's how close they are to being 9-0. I think they take their frustrations out on Marshall today, a team that isn't as good as their 7-3 record suggests. UTSA's defense is only allowing 293.7 yards pper game this season and they are outgaining their foes by 118 yards per game. Marshall is only outgaining foes by 50 yards per game.
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Free Picks: Free Service Plays for Saturday, November 18th, 2017 4 weeks 14 hours ago #461406

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Doc's Sports

Iowa State vs. Baylor
Play: Baylor +9½

The love affair with Iowa State has faded. They are now a 6-4 team and will struggle to close out the regular season with two victories. Baylor got their only win of the season two weeks ago against Kansas, but I do not see them getting run off the field today in Waco. They have been competitive in three of their last four games and I just do not believe Iowa State has much left in the tank. Look for this to be a close game and getting this many points is too good to pass up.
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Free Picks: Free Service Plays for Saturday, November 18th, 2017 4 weeks 14 hours ago #461407

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Jesse Schule

UConn vs. Boston College
Play: Under 51

The Boston College Eagles were flying high during a three game winning streak, beating Louisville, Virginia and Florida State. Starting quarterback Anthony Brown threw for 275 yards and three TDs on 19-of-24 passing in the win over the Cavs. He suffered a season ending injury in last week's loss to NC State, and that could put a serious damper on the Eagles air attack. Backup Darius Wade threw for just 82 yards on 8-of-15 passing in the loss to the Wolfpack. The Eagles likely won't need to have any success passing the ball in order to defeat the UCONN Huskies. Heavy rain and wind in the forecast could also force both these teams to concentrate more on running the football. Boston College has won five straight meetings between the two schools, including a 30-0 home win last season. They have failed to reach the total in three straight, and the total for this game is higher than it was in all three of those previous contests.
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Free Picks: Free Service Plays for Saturday, November 18th, 2017 4 weeks 14 hours ago #461408

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Jack Jones

Navy vs. Notre Dame
Play: Navy +18

I certainly question Notre Dame's motivation this week after they came up woefully short in their 'game of the year' last week at Miami. They lost 41-8 to the Hurricanes in a complete no-show. Had they won that game, they would have been in line to make the four-team playoff. But now those dreams are crushed, and it's going to be hard for them to get back up off the mat in time to face a pesky Navy team this week.

This is a Navy team that will fight you for four quarters, and I'm not sure Notre Dame will be ready for that kind of fight. This is one of many great Navy teams under Ken Niumatalolo, who would have a bigger job elsewhere by now if he didn't love it at Navy so much. His players certainly go to war for him every week.

The Midshipmen have gone 6-3 this season, and they were competitive in all three losses. They only lost 27-30 at Memphis as 3.5-point dogs, lost 21-31 at UCF as 10-point dogs, and lost 26-34 at Temple as 6-point favorites. Memphis is 8-1 this season, UCF is 9-0, and Temple is playing its best football of the year.

Following those three consecutive losses, Navy bounced back with a 43-40 win over an upstart SMU team. I think the fact that that final score was close is keeping this line higher than it should be. But it really wasn't as close as the final score as Navy led 34-11 at halftime and outgained the Mustangs by 133 yards. The Midshipmen rushed for a whopping 559 yards in the win.

Both teams love rely almost exclusively on the run to move the football, which will help shorten the game and keep Navy in it. Navy averages 370 rushing yards per game while Notre averages 303. But it's worth nothing that the Fighting Irish's leading rusher Josh Adams got hurt against Miami last week and may not be at 100%. That puts even more pressure on shaky QB Brandon Wimbush and the Notre Dame offense.

Navy has been decent at stopping the run, giving up 166 rushing yards per game and 4.7 per carry against teams that average 212 yards per game and 5.0 per carry this season, holding them to 46 yards per game less than their season averages. Notre Dame is only holding opponents to 35 rushing yards per game less than their season averages. The weakness of Navy's defense is through the air, but Notre Dame won't be able to exploit it because they only average 52% completions and 168 passing yards per game.

Navy is 14-3 ATS in its last 17 games off a close win by 3 points or less. Notre Dame is 1-11 ATS in its last 12 home games after trailing its previous game by 17 points or more at halftime. The Fighting Irish are 0-6 ATS when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 75%) over the last two seasons.

Each of the last four meetings were decided by 17 points or less. Navy has only lost twice in the last 10 meetings to Notre Dame by more than 17 points. The road team is 17-5 ATS in the last 22 meetings. The Midshipmen are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 trips to South Bend.
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Free Picks: Free Service Plays for Saturday, November 18th, 2017 4 weeks 14 hours ago #461409

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Jimmy Boyd

Purdue vs. Iowa
Play:Purdue +8

I like the value here with the Boilermakers catching over a touchdown against the Hawkeyes on Saturday. Even after an ugly loss at Wisconsin this past Saturday, Iowa is still getting love from the oddsmakers and the public for what they did two weeks ago against Ohio State. As great as the Hawkeyes played in that game against the Buckeyes, I think that was more of Ohio State just not showing up mentally ready to play that game.

We don't have to worry about the Boilermakers not showing up, as Purdue's bowl hopes are on the line, as they need to win out to become bowl eligible. While the Boilermakers are just 4-6 overall and 1-4 in their last 5, I have really liked what I've seen out of this team and most importantly I think this is a great matchup for Purdue.

Iowa's a physical offensive team that needs to be able to run the ball to open up the passing game. We saw that last week against Wisconsin, when they had just 25 yards rushing and 44 yards passing. Purdue's defense is a lot better than you would expect for a 4-6 team and their strength is stopping the run, as they rank 36th in the country giving up just 139.4 ypg.

The offense for Purdue has been limited at times, but I think Brohm will be able to put together a game plan here to attack the Hawkeyes. Let's not forget the Badgers aren't a great offensive team and they put up nearly 400 yards on Iowa's defense. The other big key here is I think this Hawkeyes team is in a bad spot off those two monster games against Ohio State and Wisconsin and a big rivalry game on deck at Nebraska. I think the Boilermakers have a legit shot at winning this game, making this an easy play given the line.
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Free Picks: Free Service Plays for Saturday, November 18th, 2017 4 weeks 14 hours ago #461410

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Jeff Allen

Texas A&M vs. Ole Miss
Play: Ole Miss -2½

Looking for Ole Miss to keep up its series domination on Senior Day in Oxford. The Rebs have owned the last three meetings (including last year on a FG with 37 seconds remaining) and have covered all five games since A&M entered the SEC. New Reb QB Ta'amu throwing for 389 ypg. since taking over three back. Matt Luke has done a great job with a program circling the drain after the Hugh Freeze "affair" and other off the field player transgressions. The Rebs are 5-5 and need a win here to guarantee .500 season with a road game in the "Egg Bowl" on deck. Ole Miss wins by a touchdown.
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Free Picks: Free Service Plays for Saturday, November 18th, 2017 4 weeks 14 hours ago #461411

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Dennis Macklin

LSU vs. Tennessee
Play: LSU -15½

It took the Tennessee administration a millisecond to fire Butch Jones after the Vols were boat-raced 50-17 at Missouri last week, ex-Ball State/San Diego State/Michigan Brady Hoke fills in for the final two home games. Other than the Troy fiasco when LSU was hit hard by injuries, the Bayou Bengals and Coach Ed have had a decent year and played Bama tough as expected. Now LSU does was it does best, ground and pound beaten up teams like Arkansas which it easily handled 33-10 last week. Same scenario here. Looking for LSU to "tenderize" the Vols in the first half and pull away late with some easy touchdowns.
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Free Picks: Free Service Plays for Saturday, November 18th, 2017 4 weeks 14 hours ago #461412

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Sean Higgs

UL-Monroe vs. Auburn
Play: UL-Monroe +37

Last year, this was a 58-7 pasting. But I have to grab the points here. And the reason is both simple, and obvious.

Auburn has big, bad Alabama on deck. They are off a Georgia win, where they won 40-17. Could have been a worse beating if the offense started out a bit better getting TDs instead of FGs.

So this spot where they go through the motions. Try not to get anyone hurt. Not add any new wrinkles to things. Just get out healthy and with a W.
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Free Picks: Free Service Plays for Saturday, November 18th, 2017 4 weeks 14 hours ago #461413

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Marc Lawrence

Minnesota vs. Northwestern
Play: Minnesota +7½

Edges - Gophers: 9-1-1 ATS in Last Road Games; and 9-3 ATS in this series, including 9-1 ATS here… Wildcats: 3-4 SU and 2-5 ATS in Last Home Games. With Gophers in need of one more victory in order to become bowl eligible, we recommend a 1* play on Minnesota.
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Free Picks: Free Service Plays for Saturday, November 18th, 2017 4 weeks 14 hours ago #461414

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Freddy Wills

Texas A&M vs. Ole Miss
Play: Texas A&M +125

Texas A&M is a different offense with Nick Starkel back at QB and it really makes the entire team better. It will also help Starkel that his offense will be able to run the ball which hasn't been the case of late. Here they'll face Ole Miss who is 125th in rushing yards allowed.

Ole Miss is 5-5 and can't go to a bowl game so their motivation is beyond this game towards the Egg Bowl against Miss State. Clearly a look ahead spot and we are getting value because the offense has not missed a beat since Shea Patterson was lost for the season. However, QB Jordan Ta'amu has faced pass defenses ranked 110, 96, and 108. Here he faced A&M who ranks 75th, not good, but A&M is ranked 4th at getting to the QB, and Ole Miss 85th at protecting their QB. Ole Miss should have some mistakes in this one. Ole Miss -7 TO margin to A&M's +6 TO margin. A&M really needs to win in November to save their coaches job. Here they are in a good match-up against a poor defense. They have struggled against good defenses not the bad ones. I expect the Aggies to win this game outright.
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Free Picks: Free Service Plays for Saturday, November 18th, 2017 4 weeks 14 hours ago #461415

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Dave Price

Army vs. North Texas
Play: North Texas -3

My favorite thing about North Texas in this game against Army is the fact that the Mean Green are very familiar with the Black Knights. That's because they played twice last year, once in the regular season and once in the bowl game. North Texas pulled the 35-18 upset at Army as 17.5-point dogs, but lost the rematch 31-38 as 10.5-point dogs. It was impressive that they pretty much validated their win by taking the Black Knights to the wire in the rematch when it was clear that Army was the more motivated team. I don't expect Army to be as motivated here because they are coming off two huge wins against Air Force and Duke. And they have their biggest game on deck against Navy. North Texas has been a great team this year, averaging 6.4 YPP on offense and giving up only 5.5 YPP on defense. Army averages 6.0 YPP on offense and gives up 6.0 YPP on defense. I really think the Mean Green are the better team, and they're playing at home here.
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