NFL betting trends, odds and predictions for Sunday, November 19th, 2017 from various handicappers and websites
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NFL Week 11
Lions (5-4) @ Bears (3-6) — Detroit won seven of last eight series games; last four were all decided by 4 or less points. Lions won three of last four visits to Chicago, winning by 2-6-4 points. Detroit won its last two games, scoring 30-38 points; they’re 3-1 on road, with only loss 52-38 in New Orleans- their offense gave up three TD’s that day. Detroit is 2-3 if they score less than 30 points. Bears lost last two games, scoring two TD”s on last 22 drives; Chicago is 2-3 at home, 4-0 as a home underdog- dogs covered all five of their home games. NFL-wide, divisional home favorites are 9-12-2 vs spread. Four of last five Detroit games went over total; under is 6-3 in Chicago games. Bears stayed under their team total in seven of nine games.
Chiefs (6-3) @ Giants (1-8 ) — Chiefs lost three of last four games after a 5-0 start; they won/covered their last three post-bye games. KC is 3-2 on road, but lost last two away games, at Oakland/Dallas. Chiefs are 2-1 as a road favorite this season. Giants lost last three games, allowing 82 points in last two games; they’re 0-4 at home, scoring 14 ppg- they’re 3-4 vs spread as an underdog this year- their last three losses were by 17-34-10 points. Giants are 10-3 in this series, winning all six matchups played here- KC won last meeting 31-7 in ’13. AFC West favorites are 4-7-1 vs spread outside the division; NC East home teams are 5-8, 1-3 as home dogs. Over is 5-2-2 in Chief games this season, 5-2 in last seven Giant games.
Buccaneers (3-6) @ Dolphins (4-5) — Short week for Miami, after its dismal loss in Charlotte Monday night. Dolphins lost last three games, are 2-1 at home, with three games decided by total of 12 points. Bucs snapped 5-game skid with 15-10 win over Jets; they scored total of 28 points in last three games. Tampa Bay won four of last five meetings, with three of less four decided by 3 or less points. Bucs lost three of their four visits to Miami. NFC South underdogs are 3-4-1 vs spread outside the division, 2-2-1 on road. AFC East favorites are 6-4-1, 3-3-1 at home. This game was supposed to be in Week 1, but was moved here because of the hurricanes. Last three Tampa Bay games stayed under total; last four Miami games went over.
Ravens (4-5) @ Packers (5-4) — Baltimore lost three of last four games, with two losses by 3 points; they’re 2-2 SU in true road games. Ravens are 3-8-1 vs spread in last 12 games as a road favorite. Baltimore is 12-3 SU/ATS in last 15 post-bye games. Green Bay lost three of last four games; Hundley got his first NFL win Sunday. 7 of last 10 Baltimore TD’s were either scored by the defense, or on drives of 42 or less yards. Ravens are 1-4 vs Green Bay, with only win 48-3 in ’05; they’re 0-3 in Lambeau, losing by 18-8-13 points. AFC North non-divisional faves are 4-7 vs spread, 1-3 on road; NFC North home favorites are 4-2 vs spread. Last five Baltimore games went over total; six of last eight Packer games went over- lot of that was with Rodgers playing.
Rams (7-2) @ Vikings (7-2) — Case Keenum was 7-7 as Rams’ starting QB in 2015-16; he was replaced by Goff in Week 10 LY, with Rams 4-5. Minnesota won its last five games, covered last four; they’re 4-1 at home, 2-1 as a home favorite. Vikings were held to 9-7 points in their two losses. Rams won six of last seven games; they’re 4-0 in true road games, scoring 38.5 ppg (14 TD’s on 44 drives). LA is 2-0 vs spread as an underdog this year. Vikings won last four series games, three by 14+ points; Rams lost 21-18 in OT in last meeting here, in ’15. Rams’ last win in Minnesota was in ’06. NFC West non-divisional road underdogs are 3-5 vs spread; NFC North favorites are 5-2, 4-2 at home. Over is 6-3 in Ram games, 3-0 in last three Minnesota games.
Cardinals (4-5) @ Texans (3-6) — Stanton got hurt last week, Savage was awful, so this looms as Gabbert vs Yates in battle of 3rd-string QB’s. Cardinals are 3-0 when they allow 15 or less points, 1-5 when they allow more; Redbirds are 2-2 in true road games, winning at Indy/SF, losing at Detroit/Philly. Houston lost its last three games; they were outscored 34-7 in 2nd half of last two games. Texans allowed 8+ yards/pass attempt in each of their last three games. Home side won all three series games; Cardinals lost 30-19 in only visit here, in ’05. NFC West non-divisional favorites are 5-5 vs spread, 2-2 on road; AFC South underdogs are 7-4 vs spread, 3-1 at home. Under is 7-1 in last eight Arizona games, 3-0 in Texan games not started by Watson.
Jaguars (6-3) @ Browns (0-9) — Jacksonville won its last three games, allowing 8 ppg; they’re 3-1 on road, 1-1 as road favorite, with wins by 22-21-27 points, with lone loss to Jets in Swamp Stadium. Five of Jaguars’ six wins were by 16+ points; in their last five games, they outscored opponents 57-16 in second half. Cleveland is 2-7 vs spread this year, 2-2 at home; three of their four home losses were by exactly 3 points. Jaguars won last two meetings, 32-28/24-6; teams split last 10 meetings. Jaguars 6-2 in visits to Lake Erie. AFC South non-divisional favorites are 4-6-1, 0-2 on road; AFC North underdogs are 6-4-1 vs spread, 1-0 at home. Under is 4-1 in last five Jaguar games, 1-3 in Cleveland’s last four games.
Redskins (4-5) @ Saints (7-2) — New Orleans won its last seven games (6-1 vs spread); they allowed 10+ yards/pass attempt in first two games, then held last seven opponents to less than 5.0 ypa— they’re 2-1 as a home favorite, with home wins by 14-8-20 points, and a loss to the Patriots. Saints ran ball for 150+ yards in four of last five games; that takes heat off their offense and aging QB Brees. Redskins are 2-2 as a road underdog. Washington won four of last five meetings, scoring 40-47 points in last two; they’re 7-0 in last seven visits to Bourbon Street- their last loss in New Orleans was in 1973. NFC East non-divisional road underdogs are 7-3 vs spread; NFC South home favorites are 4-7. Under is 5-2 in Saints’ last seven games, over is 4-1 in Redskins’ last five.
Bills (5-4) @ Chargers (3-6) — Buffalo lost its last two games, allowing 492 rushing yards, 81 points; they’re 1-3 on road, 2-1 as a road underdog, losing by 6-4-13 points, with the lone win 23-17 in Atlanta. Bills are -1 in turnovers in their losses, +12 in their wins. Chargers lost their last two games; four of their six losses were by 3 or less points. LA is 0-1 as a favorite this season. Chargers won four of last five series games; Bills lost their last five visits to San Diego- last time they beat Bolts in California was 1981. AFC East non-divisional road underdogs are 5-3 vs spread; AFC West favorites are 4-7-1 against the spread, 3-5 at home. Last four Buffalo games went over the total, last four Charger games stayed under.
Bengals (3-6) @ Broncos (3-6) — Denver lost its last five games (0-5 vs spread), thanks to a -12 turnover ratio in those games; they lost last two home games, to Giants/Patriots. Broncos desperately need a QB. Bengals lost three of last four games; they’re 1-4 on road, with losses by 3-15-16-4 points. Cincy ran total of 87 plays in its last two games; their opponents ran 162 plays. Denver won six of last seven series games, winning 20-17/29-17 the last two years; Bengals lost their last 10 visits to Denver- their last win here was in 1975. AFC North non-divisional underdogs are 6-4-1 vs spread, 4-4-1 on road; AFC West favorites are 4-7-1 vs spread, 3-5 at home. Last three Bronco games, three of last four Cincinnati games went over the total.
Patriots (7-2) vs Raiders (4-5) — New England won its last five games (4-1 vs spread); they outscored last three opponents 59-16 in first half. Patriots won field position in last three games, by 7-10-14 yards. Oakland won three of last four post-bye games; they covered their last five; Raiders lost five of their last seven games; 2-2 vs spread as an underdog. Oakland has only two takeaways (-9) in their last six games- they allowed 88 points n their last three games. Patriots won last four series games; Oakland’s last series win was in 2002. AFC East favorites are 6-4-1 vs spread, 3-1 on road; AFC West non-divisional underdogs are 5-5. Four of last five Patriot games stayed under total; over is 4-1 in last five Oakland games.
Eagles (7-2) @ Cowboys (5-4) — Dallas allowed 8 sacks in Atlanta LW, with LT Smith injured; his replacement allowed 6 of the 8 sacks. They ran ball for only 107 yards with Elliott suspended. Cowboys are 2-2 at home, losing to Rams by 5, Packers by 4- under Garrett, they’re 7-5-2 as a home underdog. Eagles are 1-4 vs spread in last five post-bye games. Philly won its last seven games, covered its last six; they’re 3-1 on road, winning by 13-2-5 points, with only loss 27-20 at Kansas City. Teams split their last eight meetings; Eagles won three of last four visits here, with last two games here going to OT. NFL-wide, divisional home underdogs are 9-8-1 vs spread. Four of last six Dallas games, five of last seven Eagle games went over the total.
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NFL's Biggest Betting Mismatches: Week 11
By: Monty Andrews
Each week, Monty Andrews breaks down some of the underlying betting mismatches on the National Football League slate, giving you an inside edge when handicapping the schedule and setting your daily fantasy lineup.
Baltimore Ravens at Green Bay Packers (+2, 38)
Ravens' ruthless pass rush vs. Packers' poor O-line play
You might see the Ravens sitting in the middle of the pack in sacks (22) and wonder how this pass rush could be considered among the elite. A closer look reveals that Baltimore ranks 12th in sack rate (7.24 percent) and has forced a league-high 13 interceptions, leading to an NFL-best 270 interception return yards and two returns for touchdowns. Baltimore is coming off a three-sack effort in last week's 23-20 loss to the Tennessee Titans.
The Packers have already lost one quarterback to injury this season, and will need to do a better job of protecting the backup. Green Bay is one of only six teams to have already surrendered at least 30 sacks, and its 8.7-percent sack rate against is fifth-worst in the NFL.
Brett Hundley was taken down three times for a total of 30 yards lost in last week's victory over Chicago, and could be in for a long afternoon if the Ravens are able to exert their pass-rush dominance over Green Bay's suspect O-line.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Cleveland Browns (+7.5, 37.5)
Jaguars' ball-thieving prowess vs. Browns' turnover troubles
Jacksonville has reeled off three wins in a row, and boasts one of the league's top point differentials at plus-92. Winning turnover battles has played a bit part in the Jaguars' resurgence, and they'll look to continue that success against a Cleveland team struggling to hang onto the ball.
One year has made all the difference in the world for Jacksonville, in a variety of areas. Turnovers is near the top of that list; after finishing with an abysmal minus-16 turnover differential last season - only the New York Jets and Chicago Bears fared worse - the Jaguars have completed a dramatic 180-degree turn, coming into this week ranked fifth with a plus-7 differential. Jacksonville has forced a whopping 18 turnovers (11 interceptions, seven fumble recoveries); only the Los Angeles Rams have more.
Things aren't nearly as rosy for the woeful Browns, who once again own one of the league's worst turnover ratios. Cleveland comes into Week 11 with a dismal minus-13 turnover differential, ahead of only the Denver Broncos. Interceptions have been the biggest issue for the Browns; they've been picked off 18 times already in 2017, five more than the next closest team.
Look for that total - and the overall differential - to climb against one of the top secondaries in the league.
Cincinnati Bengals at Denver Broncos (-2.5, 39.5)
Bengals' red-zone rejections vs. Broncos' bungling down-field offense
Two of the league's most disappointing teams face off in Colorado this weekend as the Cincinnati Bengals visit the Denver Broncos. Both teams had high hopes coming into the season, but injuries and ineffectiveness on both rosters have them carrying identical 3-6 records into this one. Denver's biggest problem has been an inability to convert red-zone visits into points - and it just so happens that Cincinnati, despite its struggles, has been one of the league's top teams at preventing red-zone scores.
Only the Los Angeles Chargers have been better at keeping opponents from turning red-zone opportunities into touchdowns than the Bengals, who have limited foes to a 38.7-percent success rate on the season.
It's a dramatic improvement from the 51-percent TD rate opponents boasted vs. Cincinnati a season ago. The Bengals are also allowing just 1.3 touchdowns on red-zone visits per game so far this season, the eighth-best rate in the NFL.
Denver's red-zone offense was an area of concern last season, when the Broncos produced touchdowns on just 46.8 percent of their trips inside the opponents' 20-yard line - the fifth-worst rate in the league. But things are even worse in 2017, with Denver scoring TDs on 43.3 percent of red-zone visits; only Pittsburgh and Indianapolis have been less prolific.
An inconsistent running game and terrible QB play have contributed - and if neither improves Sunday, expect more frustration in the Mile High State.
Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys (+3.5, 48.5)
Cowboys' dismal third-down D vs. Eagles' drive-extension mastery
The marquee matchup of Week 11 pits the NFC-leading Eagles against the rival Cowboys, who struggled mightily without standout offensive lineman Tyron Smith last week.
Dallas yielded eight sacks in the loss to the Atlanta Falcons, and need a win this week to remain in the hunt for the NFC East crown. But the red-hot Eagles have won seven consecutive games and have a significant advantage against the Cowboys when it comes to third-down situations.
Philadelphia has done just about everything well so far this season, which explains why they're the class of the conference through 10 weeks. But the Eagles have been particularly good when it comes to converting third downs, doing so at a 46.8-percent clip so far - behind only the Rams and Carolina Panthers. It's a major reason why Philadelphia ranks second behind the Panthers in time of possession, controlling the football for an average of 33 minutes, 12 seconds per game.
The Cowboys' problems on the offensive side of the ball - in addition to Smith, they're without franchise running back Ezekiel Elliott due to suspension - have garnered the majority of the headlines. But bettors shouldn't ignore the fact that the Dallas defense has allowed teams to extend drives or score on 43.5 percent of their third-down opportunities - the sixth-worst rate in the NFL.
The Eagles are one of the most dangerous teams in football - and the Cowboys can't afford to let them hold on to the ball.
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Pick Six - Week 11
By Kevin Rogers
Week 10 Record: 3-3 SU, 3-3 ATS
Overall Record: 30-30 SU, 26-33-1 ATS
Rams at Vikings (-2, 46)
Record: 7-2 SU, 6-3 ATS, 6-3 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 12/1
The Rams continue to be one of the top stories in the NFL this season after finishing off their fourth consecutive win last week. Los Angeles routed Houston, 33-7 to easily cover as 12-point favorites, while allowing 17 points or fewer in five straight games. The road numbers are ridiculous for L.A. from a scoring standpoint by averaging 38.5 points per game, while posting a 5-0 record in games played away from the Coliseum, which includes a 33-0 shutout of the Cardinals in London.
Record: 7-2 SU, 6-3 ATS, 5-4 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 16/1
The Vikings are rolling as well by running off five straight wins, including a 38-30 triumph at Washington as one-point underdogs last Sunday. Case Keenum tossed four touchdown passes for Minnesota, as his time as starting quarterback may be running out with Teddy Bridgewater activated last week off the injured list. Minnesota’s defense continues to step up at home by allowing 19 points or less in all five games at U.S. Bank Stadium. The Vikings knocked off the Rams in their last meeting in 2015 as two-point favorites, 21-18 in overtime.
Best Bet: Rams +2
Ravens (-2, 38) at Packers
Record: 4-5 SU, 4-4-1 ATS, 6-3 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 80/1
The Ravens are still hanging around in the AFC Wild Card race in spite of losing three of their last four games. Baltimore is back following the open week as the Ravens try to rebound from a 23-20 loss at Tennessee in Week 9 to push as three-point underdogs. John Harbaugh’s team is riding a five-game OVER streak, while eclipsing the OVER in four consecutive road contests. The Ravens lost a 19-17 home decision to the Packers the last time they hooked up in 2013 as Joe Flacco threw for 342 yards and two touchdowns in the defeat.
Record: 5-4 SU, 4-5 ATS, 6-3 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 50/1
The Packers finally broke through the win column without Aaron Rodgers in the lineup by beating the Bears at Soldier Field, 23-16 as 4½-point underdogs. Quarterback Brett Hundley helped put a halt to Green Bay’s three-game losing streak by hitting Davante Adams on a 19-yard touchdown pass in the fourth quarter to give the Pack a 23-13 lead and a season sweep of Chicago. The Packers are looking to avoid losing three straight games at Lambeau Field for the first time since Mike McCarthy’s first season as head coach in 2006.
Best Bet: Ravens -2
Jaguars (-7.5, 37) at Browns
Record: 6-3 SU, 5-4 ATS, 5-4 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 25/1
The Jaguars continue their push towards a playoff berth for the first time since 2007 after edging the Chargers in overtime last Sunday, 20-17. Even though Jacksonville failed to cover as five-point favorites, the Jags’ defense kept up its dominating ways by allowing 17 points or fewer for the sixth time this season. In one of their three losses, the Jaguars gave up two non-offensive touchdowns to the Rams, while holding L.A. to 249 yards. Jacksonville has won in each of its past two meetings with Cleveland, including a 24-6 rout of the Browns in 2014.
Record: 0-9 SU, 2-7 ATS, 5-4 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: Really?
The Browns still haven’t broken through the win column this season despite being tied with the Lions last week heading into the fourth quarter. Detroit outscored Cleveland, 14-0 in the fourth quarter to pull away in a 38-24 victory, while dropping the Browns to 1-7 ATS the last eight games since covering the opener against the Steelers. Cleveland’s offense has been dreadful at home by scoring 18 points or fewer in four games at FirstEnergy Stadium, while losing 17 of its past 19 contests in northern Ohio.
Best Bet: Jaguars -7.5
Redskins at Saints (-8, 51)
Record: 4-5 SU, 3-6 ATS, 6-3 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 66/1
The Redskins have failed to find consistency this season as they have yet to win three straight games, but haven’t lose three consecutive contests either. Washington followed up an impressive 17-14 victory at Seattle with a 38-30 home loss to Minnesota to remain under the .500 mark. Jay Gruden’s squad owns a 9-3 ATS record in their last 12 as a road underdog, including a 2-2 ATS ledger this season. The two covers came in outright wins over the Rams and Seahawks, while losing a close game at Kansas City and dropping a 10-point decision at Philadelphia.
Record: 7-2 SU, 7-2 ATS, 5-4 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 8/1
The Saints are one of two teams currently riding a seven-game winning streak (Eagles the other), but New Orleans has managed to cover the number in all seven victories. New Orleans crushed Buffalo last Sunday by scoring six rushing touchdowns in a 47-10 rout of the Bills, while limiting six of its past seven opponents to 17 points or less. The Saints last faced the Redskins in 2015 as Washington blew the doors of Washington, 47-14, while Washington has covered five straight meetings with New Orleans dating back to 2006.
Best Bet: Redskins +8
Bengals at Broncos (-2½, 39)
Record: 3-6 SU, 4-5 ATS, 5-4 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 250/1
The Bengals won two straight following an 0-3 start, but Cincinnati’s momentum has faded recently by losing three of the past four games. The only win in this stretch came by one point against the Colts, while getting outgained by 100 yards in losses at Pittsburgh, Jacksonville, and Tennessee. The Bengals dropped to 1-4 away from Paul Brown Stadium following last Sunday’s 24-20 defeat to the Titans, while Cincinnati owns a 3-6 ATS mark as a road underdog since the start of 2016.
Record: 3-6 SU, 2-6-1 ATS, 6-3 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 125/1
It’s hard to find offenses more dreadful than the Broncos, who have broken the 20-point mark only once since a Week 2 blowout of the Cowboys. Denver’s defense has suffered as well by getting torched for 92 points the last two weeks (although the Patriots scored on a kickoff return last week). The Broncos are on an 0-5 SU/ATS stretch, but Denver has won five of the past six meetings with Cincinnati dating back to 2009, including a 29-17 victory at Paul Brown Stadium last season.
Best Bet: Broncos -2½
Patriots (-7, 55) vs. Raiders in Mexico
Record: 7-2 SU, 5-4 ATS, 5-4 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 3/1
The Patriots blasted the Broncos last Sunday in Denver, 41-16 to easily cash as seven-point favorites. In preparation for their trip to Mexico City, New England practiced this past week in Colorado to acclimate to the high altitude, but the Pats have no problem playing away from home this season. Bill Belichick’s team owns a perfect 4-0 record on the highway, while winning 13 straight games away from Gillette Stadium since the start of 2016.
Record: 4-5 SU, 3-5-1 ATS, 5-4 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 33/1
The Raiders are back from the bye week as Oakland has won two of three since a four-game slide to creep within one game of the .500 mark. Oakland held off Miami as three-point favorites, 27-24 in Week 9, although the Dolphins scored a late touchdown to manage a push. The Raiders can’t win a low-scoring game against the Patriots as Oakland owns a an 0-5 record this season when posting 17 points or less, while all four of its victories have come when scoring at least 26 points. Oakland has dropped four straight meetings with New England since 2005, while failing to cover three times.
Best Bet: Patriots -7
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Vegas Money Moves - Week 11
By Micah Roberts
It's Week 11 in the NFL, one week before Thanksgiving and Black Friday which means bettors are planning for ways to make more money so everyone is happy during Christmas. Some people ask work for more hours, some ask friends to repay a debt and others go the easy route: winning on NFL Sunday. Of course winning is always the goal, but this week they're really serious and they've come strong collectively on two teams as if the pair are the easiest exacta ever offered.
"We've basically got two games that are likely to define how we do on Sunday,' said CG Technology VP of risk management Jason Simbal. "The public are betting like crazy, dialed in on two teams like I've seen before. They absolutely love the Eagles and the next most one-sided has been the Patriots. That's going to be a risky two-teamer for us with parlays, money-line parlays and teasers.
The Eagles are laying up to -5 at Dallas at a few books around town after opening -3.5. Dallas is playing without RB Ezekiel Elliott and OT Tryon Smith with LB Sean Lee doubtful. The Eagles have won seven straight, covering the spread in the last six.
"It's the only two games that stand out," said Simbal, "maybe the Jags would be third because we took a big bet on them and the majority of bettors are simply betting against the Browns no matter who they play.
Simbal noted the Browns have failed to cover in seven of their nine games.
But back to the Patriots and Eagles sides where Simbal started giving examples of just how one-sided those two games are.
"We've had a 7-to-1 ratio on tickets written with the Patriots and for every $230 bet on the Patriots were getting a dollar on the Raiders. It's a larger disparity in the other game where the Eagles have a 19-to-1 ratio in tickets written, $35,000 bet on the Eagles and just $410 on the Cowboys."
And that's with no large bets through Friday afternoon. They'll take six times more action over the weekend, and although it's a small sample size of action through five days, it's very accurate with what kind of betting patterns are about to happen. Nothing is going to change the opinion of the masses in the next three days of wagering.
William Hill sports books reported Thursday night that 57 percent of all their NFL Sunday side action was on the Eagles-Cowboys game with 99 percent of the cash siding with the Eagles. William Hill's top bookmaker Nick Bogdanovich said the majority of that action came from one regular bettor who gets extended limits. This particular bettor has bet large money on the Eagles at several different books, including John Avello's Wynn. He's not affiliated with any sharp group, but has been betting most of the football season at several books. So the books are getting his big money on the same side the public is piling on with. this game sticks out like a sore thumb.
Avello's Wynn sports book has a different clientele than most books with their weekend results mostly being about how well three of four of their house players (Whales) fare. The public sides rarely harm them like other books on and off the strip. It's all about the big cash and Avello is staring at eight big decisions already.
"We have a player who has made one play in a bunch of games that make those decisions our biggest," said Avello. "He took the Bears (+3 vs Lions), Chiefs (-10.5 at Giants), Packers (+2 vs Ravens), Rams (+2.5 at Vikings), Browns (+8 vs Jaguars), Redskins (+8 at Saints), Chargers (-5 vs Bills) and Eagles."
Avello liked one of the plays his VIP made and made a good case with the Redskins getting +8 at New Orleans.
"The Saints lost their first two to playoff teams and have now won seven straight (7-0 ATS), and while their offense and defense both look vastly improved, I'm skeptical a bit on them just because the list of teams they beat on that seven-game streak were teams like Tampa, Chicago and Miami. Maybe Carolina is a playoff team, and the Saints beat them, but the thing the Redskins can do most of those teams can't do consistently is score. They went on the road and beat the Seahawks and Rams." Avello labeled two teams as being difficult weekly to post a number on.
"The Chargers are tough to get a proper rating on because they're involved in so many close games," he said. "The Redskins are similar in that way. I think the Chargers will be a popular public team this week just because of how poorly Buffalo has looked in their last two and benching Tyrod Taylor for a rookie QB."
Taylor isn't hurt, but apparently he's getting credit for a defense that allowed 34 points to the Jets and 47 at home to the Saints in their last two losses. Nathan Peterman, the rookie from Pitt, will make his first career start on the road, which rarely turns out well for the rookie. The Chargers have been bet up from -4 to as high as -5.5.
When summing up what his 107 sports books needed for a profitable day, Bogdanovich made it seem like the same risk sheet with the same teams on it is happening every week.
"We know now who they're betting every week, we just need some help from the other teams," he said. "It's getting to be a regular thing the past few weeks where we need the Browns and Giants to cover and also who ever is playing the Eagles and Patriots. The Rams are quickly joining that company, but not as much this week because the Vikings are respected and at home."
The Vikings have been steady 2.5 or 2-point home favorites all week against the Rams. The Rams have won all four road games with the Over also hitting in all of them. Minnesota has gone 21-6 ATS in their last 27 home games. Something's got to give in this match-up.
Good luck this week, everyone. Go make some Black Friday cash.
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Total Talk - Week 11
By Chris David
Week 10 Recap
The ‘over’ went 8-6 last week and most of the results were clear-cut. It wasn’t surprising to see New Orleans put up 30 points in the second-half but doing so with a ground-and-pound attack was eye-opening. At the same time, I didn’t believe Dallas could be held scoreless for three consecutive quarters but that’s why the NFL remains the toughest sport to handicap. Through 10 weeks, the ‘over’ holds a 75-70-1 record.
Listed below are the largest line moves as of Saturday afternoon based off the Week 11 openers posted last Sunday at BookMaker.eu.
Detroit at Chicago: 44 to 41
Kansas City at N.Y. Giants: 44 to 45½
Tampa Bay at Miami: 43½ to 42
Arizona at Houston: 39 to 37½
Washington at New Orleans: 49 to 51½
Buffalo at L.A. Chargers: 44 to 41 (QB Change)
New England vs. Oakland: 50 to 54½
Philadelphia at Dallas: 47 to 48½
The totals market has had a lot of movement this week and the largest move is focused on this week’s game between the Patriots and Raiders from Mexico City. This will be the fifth NFL game played outside of the United States this season and the first four totals from London saw the results end in a stalemate (2-2).
Scott Cooley of BookMaker.eu offered his comments on the rise, which appears to have been hit early in the week by the professional bettors. He said, “Yes, mostly sharp money moving this one, and of course the public is piling on. We came back down a point in the last 24 hours, but currently we have more than 80 percent of the handle on the over. Hopefully we’ll see some more under money before kickoff.”
Other ‘over’ bets piling in this week were on the Redskins-Saints and Chiefs-Giants.
“I can certainly see how they’re pushing the Saints-Redskins total up. It probably should have started at 51 out of the gate. Efficient offenses, quick turf…this has all the makings of a shootout,” Cooley said. “Not sure I agree with the Chiefs-Giants movement, but could see the argument for the smart money on the over there. If the Chiefs get up big early, they aren’t really one to keep taking shots.”
Along with those games, Cooley told VegasInsider.com that BookMaker.eu has received extra attention on the ‘under’ in the Detroit-Chicago game but the New England-Oakland ‘over’ could be their largest total liability this season.
Game of the Week
I’m guessing not many pundits expected the Rams-Vikings clash in Week 11 to be a must-see matchup but that’s the case as these divisional leaders square off. A win for Minnesota would go a long way in the playoff race knowing it already notched a win over NFC South leader New Orleans.
Most shops are holding 45½ on this game and that’s the second highest total Minnesota has seen this season since their Week 1 matchup (47½) versus the aforementioned Saints. The Vikings won that game 29-19 but New Orleans moved the ball up and wound up settling for four field goals.
The Rams enter this game with the top-ranked scoring offense with 32.9 points per game and they’ve been better outside of Los Angeles (37.4 PPG). They’re averaging 388.9 yards per game and more importantly, they lead the NFL in big plays with 24 pass completions of 25-plus yards and 37 rushes of 10-plus yards. The Rams have seen the ‘over’ go 6-3 this season and that includes a 4-0 mark in true road games.
Minnesota enters this game on a 3-0 ‘over’ run and Case Keenum is starting to look like a legit quarterback but he also has some great skilled position players around him. He could have his hands full on Sunday when he faces a Rams defense that hasn’t allowed an opponent to score more than 17 points in their last five games.
There have been 19 totals close in the thirties this season and the ‘over’ has gone 10-9 in those games. While some of these totals look like clear-cut ‘under’ tickets, the error for margin is so small. Perfect example was last week when the Packers defeated the Bears 23-16 and the total (37 ½) cashed the ‘over’ late with 20 combined points scored in the final 15 minutes.
As of Saturday, it appears we’ll have at least four totals close in this neighborhood on Sunday.
Baltimore at Green Bay: The Ravens enter this game on a 5-0 ‘over’ run and they’ve had five totals close in the thirties this season and they’ve produced a 4-1 lean to the high side in those contests. Baltimore has gone 7-2 off the ‘bye’ under head coach John Harbaugh and the ‘under’ is also 7-2 in those games.
Arizona at Houston: This number continues to drop (37 ½) and could end up being the lowest total posted this season. Unless you’re buying Cardinals QB Blaine Gabbert, I don’t know how you could make an argument for the ‘over’ in this game. Texans QB Tom Savage has started three games this season and Houston has scored a combined 28 points, which helped the ‘under’ easily go 3-0.
Jacksonville at Cleveland: The Browns have only played four true home games and they’ve all gone ‘under’ with the highest combined points coming in Week 1 as Pittsburgh defeated Cleveland 21-18. The Jaguars lead the league in scoring defense (14.9 PPG) and what they’ve done outside of Jacksonville (9.2 PPG) is really impressive.
Cincinnati at Denver: Of the four low totals this week, this matchup gets the best argument for an ‘over’ lean based on what the Broncos (40.3 PPG) have allowed on the scoreboard the last three weeks. Also, Cincy has allowed 25.8 PPG on the road which excludes their 31-7 win over Cleveland. Also, this game fits a solid total system (see below) as well.
A popular total angle we’ve been following on ‘Total Talk’ is in play this Sunday as Cincinnati visits Denver. What’s the system?
Play the ‘over’ in any game when the visitor is playing their third consecutive road game
The Bengals played at Jacksonville in Week 9 and last Sunday they visited Tennessee.
I know what you’re thinking and while it’s hard to back either Cincinnati or Denver’s offense these days, this angle has done a great job ignoring current form. So far this season, the results are 2-1 to the ‘over’ and that pushes the number up to 43-21 (67%) the last 12 seasons.
Through 10 weeks of the season, the ‘under’ has gone 28-13 in divisional contests and that includes a 1-1 mark last week. Similar to Week 10, we only have two divisional matchups on tap in Week 11.
Detroit at Chicago: The ‘under’ has cashed in three straight and four of the last five meetings between the pair. Since QB Mitch Trubisky has been given control of the Bears offense, the team has been held to 20 or less in four of five games and the defense helped with a pick-six in the one outlier. Detroit has watched the ‘over’ cash in two straight and four of the last five and the offense (30, 38) has looked sharp the last two weeks. These teams haven’t had a total this low since 2006 when QBs Rex Grossman and John Kitna were running the shows for the Bears and Lions respectively.
Philadelphia at Dallas: (See Below)
AFC vs. NFC
The ‘over’ went 3-2 in non-conference games last season and through 10 weeks, the ‘over’ holds a 22-17-1 edge. Side bettors should note that the NFC went 5-0 in these games last week but depending where you shop, the AFC is favored in all four matchups this week.
Kansas City at N.Y. Giants: I’m a little surprised this total got pushed up but after watching the Giants defense the last two weeks, it certainly looks like they quit on head coach Ben McAdoo. The other coach in this game, Andy Reid, owns a 16-2 record in regular season games following a bye and that includes a 3-1 mark with KC. The Chiefs have seen the ‘under’ go 3-0-1 with rest under Reid.
Tampa Bay at Miami: Another defense waving the white flag last week was Miami, who allowed 548 total yards in its 45-21 loss at Carolina. The Dolphins have seen the ‘over’ cash in four straight and they’ve allowed 35 PPG during this span. Tampa Bay has watched the ‘under’ connect in its last three and the offense (28 total points) has been a mess. This total screams ‘pass’ to me unless you believe a bad offense trumps a bad defense.
Baltimore at Green Bay: (See Thirty Something)
Arizona at Houston: (See Thirty Something)
Under the Lights
Last week we saw a rare TNF matchup go ‘under’ but the SNF and MNF totals easily went to the high side. Heading into this weekend, the ‘over’ sits at 22-11 and that includes this past Thursday’s outcome between the Steelers and Titans.
Philadelphia at Dallas: The total went 1-1 between the pair last season but the ‘under’ result occurred in Week 17 and the Cowboys played a ton of backups, including Tony Romo. Missing RB Ezekiel Elliot to suspension showed in last week’s 27-7 loss at Atlanta, but the bigger absences for the Cowboys appear to be left tackle Tyron Smith and linebacker Sean Lee. Both are still banged up and expected to miss this key divisional test, which puts more pressure on second-year QB Dak Prescott. The Dallas offense is averaging 27 PPG at home this season but can the unit maintain those numbers without the aforementioned duo? Philadelphia enters this game with the second best scoring offense (31.4 PPG) and its road numbers (26 PPG) have been decent too. The defense (22.8 PPG) has been more suspect outside of Philadelphia, yet entering this matchup with a week of rest could help. However, the Birds dropped a 24-23 decision last season at Detroit with rest and they were also road favorites in that game as well.
Seattle at Atlanta: We’ve seen the ‘over’ cash in in five straight MNF games and this total (45) could be argued either way. Both teams have capable offensive units that can move the football but they also boast solid defensive units although Seattle is playing with a patched up secondary. Last season, they met twice and both games went to the high side. The Seahawks rallied for a 26-24 win at home before the Falcons earned revenge with a 36-20 victory in the playoffs. Both clubs enter this game with 6-3 ‘under’ records.
It’s been a rough run lately and the through 10 weeks of the season, the bankroll has plummeted to a deficit of 10 units ($1,000). Hopefully things balance out and I can get right before the postseason. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!
Best Over: Washington-New Orleans 51½
Best Under: Buffalo-L.A. Chargers 41
Best Team Total: Over Dallas Cowboys 21½
Three-Team Total Teaser (8.5-Point, +100)
Washington-New Orleans Over 43
Kansas City-N.Y. Giants Under 54
Cincinnati-Denver Over 31½
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NFL Week 11 Essentials
By Tony Mejia
Detroit at Chicago: With a home test against Minnesota scheduled to kick off Thanksgiving action with an excellent matchup, the Lions have to avoid the trap of looking ahead since the Bears had been so strong at home prior to a poor effort in last week's loss to the Packers. Despite coming off a bye and getting a career-best 297 passing yards from rookie Mitchell Trubisky, the Bears managed to run for only 55 yards last week and were upset as a home favorite. They had been a perfect 4-0 ATS at Soldier Field, defeating the Steelers and Panthers outright.
Detroit is looking for its first three-game winning streak of the season and has only one game remaining against a team currently above .500 -- Thursday's hosting of the Vikings. Chicago LB Danny Trevathan is unlikely to play and would be a major absence since the Bears have been gashed for a 159.5-yard rushing average in the two games he didn't play and never surrendered more than 125 in the seven games he's been out there. Although the Lions often struggle to run, Matthew Stafford utilizes the short passing game as well as anyone and can hit Ameer Abdullah and Theo Riddick out fo the backfield. These teams play again on Dec. 16 at Ford Field. Clear skies and temperatures in the mid-30s are expected here.
Kansas City at N.Y. Giants: The Chiefs come off a bye, which means Andy Reid gets to add to his lore since he comes in 16-2 SU with over a week of regular-season rest and preparation. Meanwhile, the Giants are double-digit home underdogs and would match a franchise-worst start through 10 games if they can't come up with a win here. Players have openly and undeniably quit on head coach Ben McAdoo and other members of his staff, making for an unbearable situation that has gone south since a rash of injuries and awful offensive line play sabotaged this season rather early.
Once considered the top team in pro football, Kansas City enters this game losers of three of four and has to hope the time off revitalizes players. They won't have standout defneders like Tamba Hali, Dee Ford and Allen Bailey all out up front, but there remains enough in place to help hassle Eli Manning, throwing off his timing by victimiing New York's bad offensive line. It won't help matters if WR Sterling Shepard can't make it through migraines and fails to play after surprisingly being added to the injury report on Saturday. Although it rained overnight in East Rutherford, conditions are expected to be clear for this one.
Baltimore at Green Bay: Despite ranking 30th of 32 NFL team in total yards (286.6), the Ravens are very much alive in the AFC playoff chase and favored at Lambeau here. Weather should be cold, but not frigid, which wouldn't have been much of a factor against the Ravens anyway. Joe Flacco has gotten some valuable weapons back on offense over the past few weeks and my get a few more back with Danny Woodhead activated from IR and former starting RB Terrance West eligible to return from a calf issue, but he may not be active since Alex Collins and Buck Allen have filled in so well in his absence.
The Packers will have to ride Jamaal Williams since impressive rookie Aaron Jones is out with a knee injury and converted WR Ty Montgomery (ribs) sidelined as well. Limited depth could press WR Randall Cobb into some backfield duty again and will force Green Bay to get creative. QB Brett Hundley has steadily improved over his first three starts. He'll never be confused for Aaron Rodgers, but can buy the offense time to get downfield, which is a requirement for playing the position for the Pack since key tackle Bryan Bulaga (knee) is again sidelined. Top target Jordy Nelson's next catch will give him sole possession of third all-time in Green Bay history with 531 receptions, rating behind only the great Donald Driver (743) and Sterling Sharpe (595), but Davante Adams has emerged as his favorite receiver, catching both of his TD passes and tying Nelson for the team lead in receptions. With safety Morgan Burnett out, Green Bay is vulnerable defensively if the Bears can strike a balance on offense.
L.A. Rams at Minnesota: The first-place Rams are averaging an NFL-best 33.9 points per game after managing a league-low 14 last season. Jared Goff's development under first-year head coach Sean McVay gets the most credit, but receiving weapons like Sammy Watkins, Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp are all new and Todd Gurley has 10 total touchdowns. It's going to be a blast to see how this multi-faceted offense performs on the road in a hostile venue against one of the league's top defenses.
Case Keenum is getting the ball despite Teddy Bridgewater's continued development in his return from injury and likely gives the Vikes their best chance to win this particular game. Keenum gets the ball out quickly, a must against an Aaron Donald-led defensive line that can really pressure opposing passers, contributing to waht's been the sixth-ranked pass defense in the league. With both teams in control in their division and appearing playoff-bound, this is an opportunity to test themselves. Minnesota will get defensive lineman Everson Griffin back too, so it will be a fair test indoors in Minneapolis. The books have favored the Vikings at home, but have also respected what the Rams have demonstrated to date in margin of victory and overall production.
Jacksonville at Cleveland: Thanks to Tennessee's Thursday night loss in Pittsburgh, the Jaguars enter this road game against the winless Browns in first place in the AFC South, a lead they'll be looking to extend by emerging victorious. The Jags have been guilty of playing down to their level of competition and rightfully have little confidence in QB Blake Bortles' ability to win a game with his arm in the clutch, so nothing is guaranteed. With RB Leonard Fournette potentially a game-time scratch since he's going to test his injured ankle pre-game before making a determination on if he'll play, the prospect that they'll have to rely on Bortles to win a game on the road, even against winless Cleveland, should be terrifying.
The Browns get back WR Corey Coleman this week and center J.C. Tretter and right tackle Shon Coleman could also participate, giving rookie DeShone Kizer at least some chance to move the ball against Jacksonville's elite defense. If you want to play contrarian or simply believe the Jaguars shouldn't be favored heavily on the road in any situation, get in before a ruling on Fournette comes in since the line will plummett if word comes down early that he won't go.
Washington at New Orleans: The 'Skins have won 4 of 5 in this series and are again in a must-win situation after blowing all momentum from a comeback win in Seattle by falling to the Vikings at home last week. They can't be looking forward to facing a Saints team that's playing at an extremely high level on both sides of the ball. The 298 yards and six touchdowns racked up last week against Buffalo was as prolific a day running the ball as a team has had since the 1958 Browns, so they're basically coming off a historic effort in the modern day area. What can they do for an encore, especially back home?
New Orleans comes into this relatively healthy, while the Washington injury report is extremely long and reads like a who's who. Multiple offensive linemen are either out or questionable, tight end Jordan Reed has been ruled out, as has WR Terrelle Pryor. Rookie RB Samaje Perine will start and young Josh Doctson is expected to be one of Kirk Cousins' primary options, so if nothing else, youth is being served. No one gave the banged-up 'Skins much of a chance in Seattle, which is likely the rallying cry as they try and pull off an upset in the Superdome.
Buffalo at L.A. Chargers: The Bills are moving on from QB Tyrod Taylor despite currently holding the No. 6 seed in the AFC playoffs, having grown frustrated at his lack of competency reading defenses more so than his lack of accuracy. That they're ready to move on to rookie Nathan Peterman because of these issues speaks volumes, particularly throwing him out there on the road. The Chargers are ranked last in the NFL in rushing yards allowed, so expect LeSean McCoy to get the ball often in an effort to keep pressure off the rookie passer.
The Chargers remain in the AFC mix despite suffering a number of heart-breaking losses, blowing opportunities to win games due to missed field goals or turnovers. Philip Rivers appears to have cleared concussion protocol enough to play here, but Kellen Clemens has been prepared to play if he can't go or he gets banged up again. One of the league's top run defenders, Brandon Mebane, has been limited due to a hamstring injuries, which increases expectations that McCoy and the Bills' other running backs will be busy in L.A.
New England vs. Oakland: Star LB Khalil Mack hasn't had his typical impact this season and has already expressed that the altitude in Mexico City feels far different than what they deal with in the annual trek to Denver. He'd know, since the Raiders played in Mexico City last year, handling Houston at Estadio Azteca. It's imperative that he and the defense get pressure on Tom Brady and limit his time to survey the field. This is more likely to be a home atmosphere for Oakland over the Patriots, although it's certainly possible that Brady swings matters by dissecting a depleted, vulnerable Raiders secondary.
Getting the ball out quickly is going to be a priority given the presence of Mack and a porous offensive line that will be missing tackle Marcus Cannon, but that's what Brady does best. Look for this game's outcome to hinge on who adjusts to the attitude and the atmosphere best, but it wouldn't be surprising to see a shootout here once both teams get acclimated.
Philadelphia at Dallas: After the Cowboys allowed eight sacks in last week's loss to the Falcons, all eyes are on whether top tackle Tyron Smith can return to help restore order and give Dak Prescott time to run what is now an Ezekiel Elliott-less offense over the next six weeks. If he can't go, combined with the backbone of the defense, LB Sean Lee, already being ruled out, expect this line to climb.
Reid protege Doug Pederson was fortunate Philly's bye week came when it did since it allows for a revamped offensive line to get better acclimated to their responsibilities, not to mention lets new arrival Jay Ayaji get more work in after basically arriving in town not believing he was going to play and immediately breaking off a long TD run.
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