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Free Picks: Free Service Plays for Saturday, August 26th, 2017

Free Picks: Free Service Plays for Saturday, August 26th, 2017 1 month 3 days ago #449629

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Free Picks for Saturday, August 26th, 2017 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers
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Free Picks: Free Service Plays for Saturday, August 26th, 2017 1 month 3 days ago #449630

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Ben Burns

BC Lions vs Redblacks
Play: Redblacks -2

The situation and schedule favors Ottawa in this one. Both teams played last Friday. The Redbacks "got healthy" with a momentum-building 37-18 win over Hamilton. With that game being played in southern Ontario, there was no travel between time zones. The Lions, on the other hand, are off a "deflating" 21-17 setback, on the West Coast, against Calgary. That close loss was preceded by a 41-8 thrashing at the hands of Saskatchewan. I think the Redblacks are probably catching them at the right time.
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Free Picks: Free Service Plays for Saturday, August 26th, 2017 1 month 2 days ago #449711

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Robert Ferringo

Chicago at Tennessee
Play: Under 43.5

The Bears first-team defense has looked outstanding, allowing just 10 points in four quarters against the Broncos and Cardinals. They've gone 'over' in each of their first two preseason games, but I don't see them going 3-0 against the total. The Titans are coming off a really high-scoring game against Carolina (34-27). They managed those 34 points despite just 360 yards of total offense and cashed in on two turnovers deep in Carolina territory for 14 cheap points. The Bears are No. 3 in the preseason in rushing attempts and the Titans are No. 7. I see both teams just trying to grind through this game and both pounding the ball on the ground. I don't think either offense is going to break out, and I can see this one somewhere in the 23-13 range.
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Free Picks: Free Service Plays for Saturday, August 26th, 2017 1 month 2 days ago #449712

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Raphael Esparza

Mayweather / McGregor Over 4.5 Rounds

I know this juice is high, but if you take a breath and think about both fighters there is no way this fight ends in 5 rounds or less. Mayweather has one of the best boxing defenses I have ever seen in the boxing ring, and his boxing style will bother McGregor early and often. If anybody is getting KO'd it will be in the later rounds, and I believe this 4.5 Round Prop should be around -600 or higher. I know this fight is a circus, and the cost to watch this fight is outrageous, but there are two great undercard fights on the card as well. It wouldn't shock me to see this mega-fight go the distance, and this fight will see the later rounds.
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Free Picks: Free Service Plays for Saturday, August 26th, 2017 1 month 8 hours ago #449883

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Sean Higgs

South Florida vs. San Jose State
Play: San Jose State +22

So, pretty simple in my thinking on this one. First, a pair of new HCs for these teams. Charlie Strong ousted in Texas, takes over a pretty talented South Florida team. But never easy to lay 3 TDs and travel 3000 miles cross country to open a season. Not saying that USF will be a bad club. Just this is a tough spot to lay this number.

And why is that? Spartans also have a new regime. What really stands out to me here though is the OC. He was part of the offense in Texas with Charlie Strong and his OC Sterlin Gilbert. We only need the slightest bit of edge to slow down an offense just an ounce. Being familiar with what could be coming at you is never a bad thing.

The Bulls have a very talented QB and offense overall. Most times I am taking dogs and not even worry about points as I think they should win outright. But with a number like this, I am thinking it is close for a half before we might need one of those late back door covers. Ether way, I feel good about this home puppy.
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Free Picks: Free Service Plays for Saturday, August 26th, 2017 1 month 8 hours ago #449884

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Cappers Club

Hawaii vs. UMass
Play: Over 61½

The UMass Minutemen and the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors kick off on Saturday, and after how they showed out last year the over has a lot of value.

Last year these two teams faced off and the Rainbow Warriors won by a final score of 46-40 and I expect a game like that again this year.

Last year the Rainbow Warriors offense had their way with the Minutmen defense, and with most of the key players back from last year, nothing should change.

Quarterback Dru Brown threw for 311 yards and five touchdowns last year against UMass and I would expect something like that again.

The Rainbow Warriors defense also struggles so UMass should have no issue running up the score when they are on offense.

Some trends to note. Over is 6-0 in Rainbow Warriors last 6 non-conference games. Over is 5-1 in Minutemen last 6 games overall.
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Free Picks: Free Service Plays for Saturday, August 26th, 2017 1 month 4 hours ago #449912

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ASA

South Florida vs. San Jose St
Play: South Florida -21

A pair of new head coaches matched up in this one but the head coaching experience edge goes to the Bulls Charlie Strong here. He also inherits the much more talented team including a very potent offense with QB Quinton Flowers and a host of returning talent for South Florida. The weakness for the Bulls was defense last season but that has been the focus for Strong and he'll have this unit ready to go early this season. That said, and with a match-up against an FCS team (Stonybrook) on deck, Strong wants to make a statement in this opening game of the season. With the point-spread coming back down to a 21 (from as high as a 22.5) we like the value here with USF as of Friday afternoon and we're laying the 21 points. The Bulls are on an 11-4 ATS run as a favorite and, overall, in Saturday games South Florida is on a 14-5 ATS run. The Spartans had one of the worst pass defenses in the nation last year and are now led by a 44-year old head coach, Brent Brennan, whom has no head coaching experience. San Jose State is on a 2-5 ATS run as a big dog of 13 points or more the past 3 seasons combined. Strong has some pent up frustration from the way his tenure ended at Texas. He will take out his frustration on San Jose State!
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Free Picks: Free Service Plays for Saturday, August 26th, 2017 4 weeks 2 days ago #449951

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Scott Rickenbach

Oregon State vs. Colorado State
Play: Oregon State +4

Even though the Rams are opening up their new stadium and that will give them some extra motivation, the fact is that this is a tough spot for them as they have their rivalry game with Colorado on deck. As for the Beavers, they only have an FCS team (Portland State) on deck and that is set for Saturday while Colorado State is facing the Buffaloes Friday. Oregon State comes from the tougher conference and that is certainly noteworthy here as the Rams are on a long-term 4-12 SU (5-10-1 ATS) run against Pac-12 opponents. The Beavers are on a long-term 10-7 ATS (13-4 SU) run against Mountain West opponents. While Colorado State's strength is on the offensive side of the ball, Oregon State has the better defense. The Beavers do run the ball well and the Rams struggled to stop the run last season. I like having the better defense with a road dog that can also establish the running game. That said, I'll grab the line value with the points being offered in this one and, in doing so, I'll be grabbing the team from the much stronger conference as well.
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Free Picks: Free Service Plays for Saturday, August 26th, 2017 4 weeks 2 days ago #449952

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Doug Upstone

Oregon St vs. Colorado St
Play: Over 60

The first battle of the new season will be played in a brand new venue, currently named Colorado State Stadium. The pictures are gorgeous and both squads have their starting quarterbacks returning. The betting interest has been on the totals side, dumping it 62.5 to 60. Each team does bring back eight defensive starters from ordinary defenses. With the Rams at home, a good team and excited about first game in a new stadium, I prefer the higher score.
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Free Picks: Free Service Plays for Saturday, August 26th, 2017 4 weeks 2 days ago #449953

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ASA

South Florida vs. San Jose State
Play: South Florida -21

A pair of new head coaches matched up in this one but the head coaching experience edge goes to the Bulls Charlie Strong here. He also inherits the much more talented team including a very potent offense with QB Quinton Flowers and a host of returning talent for South Florida. The weakness for the Bulls was defense last season but that has been the focus for Strong and he'll have this unit ready to go early this season. That said, and with a match-up against an FCS team (Stonybrook) on deck, Strong wants to make a statement in this opening game of the season. With the point-spread coming back down to a 21 (from as high as a 22.5) we like the value here with USF as of Friday afternoon and we're laying the 21 points. The Bulls are on an 11-4 ATS run as a favorite and, overall, in Saturday games South Florida is on a 14-5 ATS run. The Spartans had one of the worst pass defenses in the nation last year and are now led by a 44-year old head coach, Brent Brennan, whom has no head coaching experience. San Jose State is on a 2-5 ATS run as a big dog of 13 points or more the past 3 seasons combined. Strong has some pent up frustration from the way his tenure ended at Texas. He will take out his frustration on San Jose State!
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Free Picks: Free Service Plays for Saturday, August 26th, 2017 4 weeks 2 days ago #449954

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Art Aronson

Giants vs. Diamondbacks
Play: Under 8½

Recent form displayed by these starting pitchers suggests that runs will likely be at a premium in this one.

Madison Bumgarner: He’s 3-5 with a 2.87 ERA. Bumgarner gave up one run off four hits over six innings against Philadelphia on Sunday, also walking one and striking out seven in the unfortunate no-decision. Bumgarner will be looking to finish the season strong despite the Giants now almost completely without hope in making the playoffs (note that he owns a 2.85 ERA on the road.)

Taijuan Walker: He’s 6-7 with a 3.66 ERA. Walker went 5.1 scoreless innings against the Mets on Monday, also unfortunate to receive a no-decision for his superb effort. Walker sports a respectable 1.32 WHP and 8.0 K/9.

The bottom line: We’re expecting these competent hurlers to battle into the latter frames.
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Free Picks: Free Service Plays for Saturday, August 26th, 2017 4 weeks 2 days ago #449955

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Sean Murphy

Raiders vs. Cowboys
Play: Cowboys -3

I'll lay the points with the Cowboys on Saturday night. Dallas has the advantage of staying home for a second straight week while the Raiders will be playing in their third city in as many weeks. Of course, Dallas also has the advantage of playing its fourth game of the preseason. The Cowboys starters should see extended time in this one. While the same can be said for the Raiders first unit on both sides of the football, I'm not sure we'll see a real sense of urgency. Yes, Oakland is winless so far but a victory is by no means a must on Saturday night. I simply feel the Cowboys have a considerable edge in terms of depth, and they've looked every bit like a team that's interested in setting a winning tone here in August.
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Free Picks: Free Service Plays for Saturday, August 26th, 2017 4 weeks 2 days ago #449956

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Jack Jones

Oregon State vs. Colorado State
Play: Oregon State +4

The Oregon State Beavers enter Year 3 under head coach Gary Andersen in 2017. This is the year where he has the players he recruited getting most of the playing time, and it's the year that they have a good chance of getting to a bowl game.

After going 2-10 in 2015 with only 9 returning starters, the Beavers went 4-8 last year with 13 starters back. But they were better than their record and a money-making machine as they went 9-3 ATS. They were way more competitive against the big bows as they were really only blown out twice.

Now the Beavers have 15 starters back in 2017 and this will be Andersen's best team yet. He has a stud JUCO transfer at quarterback in Jake Luton. The running game averaged 5.2 yards per carry last year and brings back their top two rushers in Ryan Nall and Artavis Pierce.

They made a big improvement defensively last year and should take a big jump again with eight starters back. Six of seven starters are back among the front seven, which will be the strength of their defense. I really believe this team is flying under the radar right now.

The betting public loves Colorado State because of the way they finished last year offensively. They scored 37 or more points in six straight games to close out the year. But they also lost 50-61 to lowly Idaho in their bowl game. And their defense is going to be a problem again.

While they may have the better offense in this game, the Rams' defense isn't going to be able to stop Oregon State. The Rams gave up 214 rushing yards per game and 4.8 yards per carry last year, which plays right into the Beavers' offensive strength with their rushing attack. Keep in mind that Colorado State lost 7-44 to Colorado last year, a fellow Pac-12 conference opponent of Oregon State.

Andersen is 20-8 ATS as a road underdog in all games he has coached. Andersen is 24-11 ATS in non-conference games in his career as well. The Beavers are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall.
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Free Picks: Free Service Plays for Saturday, August 26th, 2017 4 weeks 2 days ago #449957

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Dennis Macklin

Giants vs. Diamondbacks
Play: Under 9

While their performance hasn't necessarily translated to wins, both these starters have been pretty good all year. Mad Bum (3-5, 2.87, 7-4 Under 11 starts) has been good all year when he's not riding quads. Walker rocks a decent 3.66 ERA in his 21 starts and comes off 5 2/3 shutout innings in his last start. Giants ... four straight unders. Snakes are 3-1 Under in L4 and hitting just .207 in their L7 games.
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Free Picks: Free Service Plays for Saturday, August 26th, 2017 4 weeks 2 days ago #449958

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Mike Anthony

Hawaii vs. UMass
Play: Over 61

The UMass Minutemen and the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors kick off on Saturday in College Football action. Last year these two teams faced off and the Warriors won by a final score of 46-40 and I expect a game like that again this year. Last year the Warriors offense had their way with the Minutmen defense, and with most of the key players back from last year, nothing should change. Quarterback Dru Brown threw for 311 yards and five touchdowns last year against UMass and I would expect something like that again. The Rainbow Warriors defense also struggles so UMass should have no issue running up the score when they are on offense. Some trends to note. Over is 6-0 in Rainbow Warriors last 6 non-conference games. Over is 5-1 in Minutemen last 6 games overall.
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Free Picks: Free Service Plays for Saturday, August 26th, 2017 4 weeks 2 days ago #449959

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Power Sports

San Diego vs. Miami
Pick: Miami -110

You can't help but want to go against the horrible Padres at this price. I went against them yday, here in Miami, and the result ended up being 8-6 in mine and the Marlins' favor. The rationale will remain largely the same here. this team has been outscored by more runs than any other in baseball (-150 run diff). Most of that damage has come on the road where they are 24-41 and -1.6 rpg. If we're being honest (I always like to be!) here, as bad as the Padres' record is right now (57-71), it ought to be even worse. Based on run differential, they have a win expectancy of only 47 games. That 10-game differential between actual and expected wins is by far the largest in the National League!

Like seemingly every other starter in the Padres' rotation, Dinelson Lamet struggles on the road. He has a 5.72 ERA and 1.423 WHIP. Therefore, he should feel fortunate to have a 4-4 TSR outside of Petco Park. While Lamet has allowed 2 ER or less in all six starts since the Break, the two that were on the road came against the Reds and Giants, two very bad teams. I expect him to struggle Saturday.

Omar Despaigne makes just his second start of the year for the Marlins. The first was back in May. Considering San Diego, who is the lowest scoring team in baseball (also last in batting average and OBP), scored six runs last night, I expect them to struggle at the plate Saturday. You just don't see this team string together B2B strong offensive performances very often. Despaigne should also bank on plenty of offensive support. Miami has scored 6+ runs in five of the last six games.
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Free Picks: Free Service Plays for Saturday, August 26th, 2017 4 weeks 2 days ago #449960

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Zack Cimini

Detroit at Chicago
Pick: Chicago

Saturday the Tigers will call upon pitcher Buck Farmer for a spot start. Facing the White Sox could be a good thing for Farmer. On May 27th he delivered a three-hit victory with no runs allowed against the White Sox. Still look for the value here on the home White Sox who are playing with more confidence heading into the final month of the MLB season.
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Free Picks: Free Service Plays for Saturday, August 26th, 2017 4 weeks 2 days ago #449961

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Brandon Shively

Stanford vs. Rice
Pick: Under 51.5

This Under has a lot of factors that play into it.

Both teams will be going into unfamiliar territory in Australia. While the experience is one thing, nerves will certainly play a role here in this one.

Both teams are run first offenses as well. Rice has always been a ground and pound team and they're going to do the same thing here against a Stanford defense that is one of the best in the PAC-12. Stanford will be in rebuild like mode offensively, which will lead them to chewing up a lot of clock.

This should be a slow developing game.
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Free Picks: Free Service Plays for Saturday, August 26th, 2017 4 weeks 2 days ago #449962

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Jim Feist

Rockies at Braves
Pick: Under

This is a good park to pitch in and Colorado is a long way from home on a 5-1 run under. The Under is also 15-5-1 when the Rockies are on the road against a left-handed starter, plus 17-4-2 under when Freeland starts. Atlanta has a weak offense, 24-10-3 under the total at home. And the Under is 19-7-2 in the Braves last 28 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
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Free Picks: Free Service Plays for Saturday, August 26th, 2017 4 weeks 2 days ago #449981

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Scott Spreitzer

Arizona vs. Atlanta
Play: Arizona +3.5

We expect to see Arizona's starters playing into the third quarter by all indications, although Carson Palmer will likely be done by halftime. We like the Cardinal QB rotation in the second half, beginning with Drew Stanton who may see some time with regulars before giving away to the preseason-capable Blaine Gabbert. Bruce Arians is half-a-point away from a 6-1-1 ATS run as a preseason underdog. Atlanta HC Dan Quinn hasn't put a lot of stock into the so called Dress Rehearsal week. His Falcons are 0-2 in these games and he has sat his starters early-on in each of the last two preseasons. We don't expect to see Matt Ryan for more than a quarter and we expect a departure time much earlier than most of their 1st string counterparts.
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Free Picks: Free Service Plays for Saturday, August 26th, 2017 4 weeks 2 days ago #449982

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Executive Sports

Buffalo Bills vs. Baltimore
Play: Buffalo +3.5

Although the pre-season means nothing other than evaluating talent and certain schemes and game plans, teams do like to instill some confidence as they approach the regular season. The Bills come in at 0-2 so far, while Baltimore is 2-0. Bills will try a little harder to come out on the winning end of this one, as no one likes to have that goose egg in the win column no matter what time of the year it is.
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Free Picks: Free Service Plays for Saturday, August 26th, 2017 4 weeks 2 days ago #449985

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Jimmy Boyd

Oregon State vs. Colorado State
Play: Oregon State +4

After a closer inspection of this game, I like the value with the Beavers catching over a field goal against the Rams. Despite finishing just 4-8 last year, Oregon State made big improvements in year two under head coach Gary Anderson. They were a lot more competitive than people think and closed out the season with back-to-back double-digit wins over Arizona and Oregon.

I know the Beavers haven't won a road game under Anderson (0-11), but this is by far their best chance, as they played at Michigan in 2015 and at Minnesota last year in their only two road games outside of the conference. Colorado State has high expectations this season, but are simply getting way to much respect here against a Power 5 program.

Last year the Beavers averaged 26.2 ppg, which was a massive improvement from the 19.0 ppg they put up in 2015. This year they got 7 starters back on offense, plus are adding in talented Juco transfer Jake Luton to take over at quarterback. That could take this offense to the next level, as they got two dynamic runners in Ryan Nall (6.5 yards/carry) and Artavis Pierce (5.3 yards/carry).

That ground attack figures to pose problems for the Rams, who allowed 214 yards/game and 4.8 yards/carry against the run last year. While Colorado State has 8 starters back on defense, they lost the heart and soul of their defense in linebacker Kevin Davis, who led the team with 110 tackles. All the talk is about the Rams and their offense, but I look for the Beavers to have the easier time moving the ball in this one.
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Free Picks: Free Service Plays for Saturday, August 26th, 2017 4 weeks 2 days ago #449986

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Dave Price

Giants vs. Diamondbacks
Play:Diamondbacks -120

We are getting the Arizona Diamondbacks at a great price at home here against the San Francisco Giants. The Diamondbacks obviously have a lot more to play for right now than the Giants do. And Taijuan Walker has been solid in his first season in Arizona, going 6-7 with a 3.66 ERA across 21 starts. He is 2-1 with a 3.75 ERA in 4 lifetime starts vs. San Francisco, 3 of which have come this season. Madison Bumgarner is still a great starter in this league, but he has actually lost his 2 starts against Arizona this year. The Giants are 3-9 in his 12 starts this year. Bumgarner is 0-7 (-10.6 Units) against the money line against division opponents this season. The Diamondbacks are 20-7 in their last 27 home games vs. a left-handed starter.
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Free Picks: Free Service Plays for Saturday, August 26th, 2017 4 weeks 2 days ago #450007

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Brad Wilton

Saturday comp play is Hawaii and UMass to land Over the total.

When the schools played last November in Honolulu, they combined for a massive 86 total points in a game that shattered the posted total of 57-points.

Look for another Over between Hawaii and Massachusetts, as both starting quarterbacks from last year's meeting do return, and let's remember that the Rainbow Warriors did end the season last year by playing Over the total in their last pair of games, and 6 of their final 8 overall - that UMass meeting included.

The Minutemen also ended last year with some higher-scoring contests, as their final 3 - including the Hawaii meeting - and 7 of their final 9 games also landed Over the posted price.

Can't see too much changing less than a year later.

Rainbow Warriors and the Minutemen score early-and-often. Play the Over.

4* HAWAII-MASSACHUSETTS OVER
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Free Picks: Free Service Plays for Saturday, August 26th, 2017 4 weeks 2 days ago #450008

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Eric Schroeder

My free winner is on the New York Yankees over the Seattle Mariners, and be sure to list Yovani Gallardo and Sonny Gray.

Gallardo, the veteran presence in the rotation, has allowed three or fewer earned runs in seven of his last 11 starts and he's been a quality starter to the injury-riddled rotation. But, he also has a 6.32 career ERA against the Yankees, and will struggle in this one.

Meanwhile, despite a 1-3 record in four starts since being acquired by New York, Gray has been consistent with his new team. He turned in three straight quality starts before allowing two runs and seven hits in five innings against Boston his last time out.

Take the Yankees, as Gray shines in this one.

2* YANKEES -1.5
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