Betting news, trends, odds and predictions from various handicappers and websites for Saturday 5/26/18
2018 Stanley Cup Preview
The Washington Capitals Are Too Skilled Offensively for Vegas
There are an almost infinite ways to craft the narrative for what’s going to be an exhilarating Stanley Cup Finals. One way or another, we’re getting a fairytale ending for one of these stories. Either the uncrowned prince finally claims his throne, or this band of rugged misfits become the most unexpected champions in the history of the four majors.
It’s insane to think about it. The Las Vegas Golden Knights are -135 to win the series after opening the year facing a slew of “oh my god they’re going to be terrible” headlines as people mocked the patchwork way in which they were assembled.
Vegas has been simply volcanic while erupting for an absurd 44 goals in the playoffs through 15 games, and they were only shut out once. On the flip side, Marc Andre-Fleury picked up four shutouts while allowing just 26 goals against total as a team. That +1.2 goals against average has been more than enough and was shrunk largely because the Winnipeg Jets gave them a dogfight in the Western Conference Finals.
Washington is by no means a push over, with a +115 mark to win the Stanley Cup heading in to Game 1. A lot of that simply has to do with home ice advantage, but it’s very safe to say that the Capitals had a much harder road to get to the finals. Vegas handedly responded to the only real challenge they had in Winnipeg, winning in five games.
Not only did the Washington Capitals rally against an absurdly gritty Columbus team to win 4-2, they also dispatched of the Pittsburgh Penguins in that same number of games. Tampa Bay was the longest running favorite to win the Stanley Cup this entire season, establishing themselves early before completely gassing out in the final two games of the Eastern Conference Finals, losing by combined scored of 7-0.
And now, here we are. Ovechkin. These Knights. Marc Andre Fleury. The whole thing is dizzying. Rarely does the NHL provide a story quite like this one.
2018 Stanley Cup Playoff Schedule
Game 1 – Washington at Vegas (Monday, May 28th)
Game 2 – Washington at Vegas (Wednesday, May 30th)
Game 3 – Vegas at Washington (Saturday, June 2nd)
Game 4 – Vegas at Washington (Monday, June 4th)
Game 5 – Washington at Vegas (Thursday, June 7th)
Game 6 – Vegas at Washington (Sunday, June 10th)
Game 7 – Washington at Vegas (Wednesday, June 13th)
Where Washington really holds an advantage is on offence, where their 3.47 goals per game through the playoffs is absolutely ridiculous. They basically hold a +1.0 differential after giving up 2.47 goals against over 19 matchups. A lot of that is because Braden Holtby completely lost himself in the middle of the Lightning series. It was smart to back him all the way as Washington did. He ended the Eastern Conference Finals with a pair of shutouts that have likely given him the edge he needs to waltz in to the crease on Monday night with a ton of swagger.
Essentially the problem comes down to quality of opponents. The Eastern Conference was so unbelievably deep this year that the Capitals were actually an afterthought heading in to the playoffs. A lot of that had to with the fact that Tampa seemed unbeatable after the trade deadline, Pittsburgh was always one “flick of the switch” away, Toronto was an irresistibly young assortment of talent and Boston became a wrecking ball. If anything Washington proved just how good they are by dispatching of Tampa and Pittsburgh, arguably the two best teams in the conference.
An unreal combination of brute force, speed and relentless pressure makes Washington an inescapably tempting underdog play. As I mentioned, the odds favor Vegas simply because they’re the higher seed and hold home ice advantage. The Capitals are a finely groomed, ultra-aggressive band of offensive stars anchored right down the middle by a brilliant collection of center man.
That’s where the real advantage for the Capitals lays. Kuznetsov (24 points), Backstrom (16 points) and Eller (13 points) are simply a huge step up from Marchessault, Karlsson and Carpenter. To put it simply, the Capitals represent too much firepower for the Vegas Knights to really contend with.
Until we see how this unfolds in Game 1, Washington’s odds as a +135 dog to win the Stanley Cup are too juicy to ignore, especially after laying waste to Tampa Bay in a crucial, franchise defining victory on the road.
Vegas will apply pressure, find some tactical ways to break through, and pour on the shots. The hope is that the Capitals don’t decimate Marc-Andre Fleury’s iron mindset early on in the series. He has a terrific track record against Washington in the playoffs, but had Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin in front of him before. With this group of adorable misfits, it’s a much tougher sell.