Betting news, trends, odds and predictions from various handicappers and websites for Friday 5/11/18
Washington Capitals at Tampa Bay Lightning (-175, 6)
Series tied 0-0.
The Tampa Bay Lightning hope to use their experience and the visiting Washington Capitals look to ride the momentum of one of the best playoff runs in franchise history as the teams meet for Game 1 of the Eastern Conference final Friday night. The Lightning have reached the conference final three times in the last four seasons and Washington makes its first appearance since 1998 after vanquishing its nemesis Pittsburgh in the second round.
“It’s more ‘We’re on a mission’ excitement,” Tampa Bay coach Jon Cooper told reporters. “It’s a little different than it was three years ago with the same group. There’s a confidence about them in the way we’re playing, how we’ve arrived at where we are right now, and a lot of that has to do because they’ve just been there before.” The Lightning, who knocked out both New Jersey and Boston in five contests to start the postseason, have 18 players that have combined for 273 conference final games and the Capitals total is 28 going into the series. However, this Washington team climbed out of a 2-0 hole in the first round by winning four in a row and triumphed at Pittsburgh in Game 6 without standout center Nicklas Backstrom, who is day-to-day with an upper-body injury. “I think we’ve got to be greedy,” Washington defenseman Matt Niskanen told reporters. “We’ve got to want more because this is a heck of a run. I don’t know if there is a group out there that knows how hard it is to get to this point (more than this one). So don’t waste the opportunity.”
TV: 8 p.m. ET, NBC Sports Network, TVA
SERIES PRICE (PER WESTGATE LV SUPERBOOK):
LINE HISTORY: The Lightning opened as -180 moneyline favorites for Game 1 and as of Thursday night that number is down to -175. The line move is despite 57 percent of early Covers Consensus wagering coming in on the favored Bolts. The total hit betting boards at 6 and has yet to move. Check out the complete line history here.
ABOUT THE CAPITALS (57-28-8-1, 52-40 O/U): Backstrom, who owns 13 points in the playoffs, has been skating on his own while forward Andre Burakovsky (upper-body injury) practiced Thursday and is also considered day-to-day after missing the last 10 games. Captain Alex Ovechkin makes his first appearance in the conference final after recording a team-high eight goals in 12 playoff contests, and his club-best 15 points are one better than linemate Evgeny Kuznetsov - who scored the overtime winner in Game 6 at Pittsburgh. John Carlson boasts 11 points in the playoffs and fellow defenseman Brooks Orpik, who has appeared in 137 postseason games, leads the team with a plus-9 rating.
ABOUT THE LIGHTNING (62-25-3-2, 54-35 O/U): Brayden Point, along with linemates Tyler Johnson and Ondrej Palat, have limited their opponent’s top threesome at even strength in the first two series and will likely get another test with the Tom Wilson-Kuznetsov-Ovechkin line. Right wing Nikita Kucherov leads the team with six goals and 12 points in the playoffs while linemate Steven Stamkos scored two of his three goals in the last three games. Goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy, who boasts a 2.20 goals-against average and .927 save percentage in the postseason, was 0-3-0 versus the Capitals before winning two of three while posting a .930 SP against them in 2017-18.
INJURY REPORT:
Capitals - LW Andre Burakovsky (Questionable, Upper Body), C Nicklas Backstrom (Questionable, Hand).
Lightning - LW Adam Erne (Questionable, Lower Body).
TRENDS:
* Capitals are 10-1 in their last 11 road games.
* Lightning are 38-14 in their last 52 home games
* Over is 10-1 in Capitals' last 11 games playing on 3 or more days rest.
* Over is 21-8-1 in Lightning's last 30 vs. Metropolitan.
* Over is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings in Tampa Bay.
How they got here: The Capitals are appearing in their first conference finals since 1998 after ending their two-year hex against the Penguins. Pittsburgh knocked out Washington in the conference semifinals in 2016 and 2017 as the Penguins eventually won the Stanley Cup. This time around, the Capitals jumped the hurdle known as Pittsburgh by eliminating the Pens in six games, capped off by a 2-1 road overtime victory in the series clincher.
Washington is coming off its third consecutive Metropolitan division title, but didn’t capture the President’s Trophy for the first time since 2015. Alex Ovechkin led the NHL in goals for the seventh time in his career as he netted 49 goals this season, while Evgeny Kuznetsov handed out 56 assists and finished with 83 points.
The Lightning are participating in the Eastern Conference Finals for the third time in four seasons after eliminating the Devils and Bruins. Tampa Bay made quick work of New Jersey in the first round in five games, but were thumped in Game 1 of the semifinals against Boston. The Bolts rebounded with four consecutive wins over their division rivals to advance in five games, while limiting the Bruins to seven goals in the last four games after allowing six goals in the Game 1 loss.
Tampa Bay clinched its first division title since 2004, when the Lightning hoisted the Stanley Cup in a seven-game series victory over the Flames. The Bolts reached Game 7 of the Eastern Conference Finals in 2015 and 2016, as Tampa Bay ousted the Rangers three seasons ago, but fell short to the Penguins two seasons ago.
Steven Stamkos racked up his highest point total since 2012 as the center dished out a career-best 59 assists and totaled 86 points. Right wing Nikita Kucherov reached the 100-point plateau for the first time in his career, while center Brayden Point posted 32 goals in his second season with Tampa Bay.
Head-to-Head Matchups: Prior to this season, the Capitals owned a 7-0-1 record against the Lightning dating back to December 2014. However, Tampa Bay captured two victories in three matchups this season. The Lightning erased a 2-0 deficit in the first meeting on October 9 at Amalie Arena to edge the Capitals, 4-3. Kucherov scored the game-tying goal in the third period, while Point delivered the winner in overtime as Tampa Bay outshot Washington, 40-26.
The Capitals picked up revenge at home in the next matchup on November 24 as Washington cruised past Tampa Bay, 3-1 as +130 underdogs. Ovechkin was one of three Washington goal-scorers in the win as the Caps outshot the Bolts, 38-26, while Philipp Grubauer picked up 25 saves for the Capitals.
The Lightning won in their next visit to D.C. on February 20 in a 4-2 triumph as -130 favorites. Tampa Bay struck for three goals in the first period, including a pair of goals from Point. Ovechkin netted the lone goal for Washington, while Andrei Vasilevskiy stopped 35 shots for Tampa Bay.
Head-to-Head Playoff History: The Capitals and Lightning are hooking up for the third time ever in the postseason. Tampa Bay captured the first two series as the Bolts knocked out the Caps in six games of the 2003 quarterfinals and pulled off a sweep of Washington in the 2011 semifinals.
Preview: Capitals at Lightning
Gracenote
May 10, 2018
The Tampa Bay Lightning hope to use their experience and the visiting Washington Capitals look to ride the momentum of one of the best playoff runs in franchise history as the teams meet for Game 1 of the Eastern Conference final Friday night. The Lightning have reached the conference final three times in the last four seasons and Washington makes its first appearance since 1998 after vanquishing its nemesis Pittsburgh in the second round.
“It’s more ‘We’re on a mission’ excitement,” Tampa Bay coach Jon Cooper told reporters. “It’s a little different than it was three years ago with the same group. There’s a confidence about them in the way we’re playing, how we’ve arrived at where we are right now, and a lot of that has to do because they’ve just been there before.” The Lightning, who knocked out both New Jersey and Boston in five contests to start the postseason, have 18 players that have combined for 273 conference final games and the Capitals total is 28 going into the series. However, this Washington team climbed out of a 2-0 hole in the first round by winning four in a row and triumphed at Pittsburgh in Game 6 without standout center Nicklas Backstrom, who is day-to-day with an upper-body injury. “I think we’ve got to be greedy,” Washington defenseman Matt Niskanen told reporters. “We’ve got to want more because this is a heck of a run. I don’t know if there is a group out there that knows how hard it is to get to this point (more than this one). So don’t waste the opportunity.”
TV: 8 p.m. ET, NBC Sports Network, TVA
ABOUT THE CAPITALS: Backstrom, who owns 13 points in the playoffs, has been skating on his own while forward Andre Burakovsky (upper-body injury) practiced Thursday and is also considered day-to-day after missing the last 10 games. Captain Alex Ovechkin makes his first appearance in the conference final after recording a team-high eight goals in 12 playoff contests, and his club-best 15 points are one better than linemate Evgeny Kuznetsov - who scored the overtime winner in Game 6 at Pittsburgh. John Carlson boasts 11 points in the playoffs and fellow defenseman Brooks Orpik, who has appeared in 137 postseason games, leads the team with a plus-9 rating.
ABOUT THE LIGHTNING: Brayden Point, along with linemates Tyler Johnson and Ondrej Palat, have limited their opponent’s top threesome at even strength in the first two series and will likely get another test with the Tom Wilson-Kuznetsov-Ovechkin line. Right wing Nikita Kucherov leads the team with six goals and 12 points in the playoffs while linemate Steven Stamkos scored two of his three goals in the last three games. Goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy, who boasts a 2.20 goals-against average and .927 save percentage in the postseason, was 0-3-0 versus the Capitals before winning two of three while posting a .930 SP against them in 2017-18.
OVERTIME
1. Washington G Braden Holtby, who owns a 2.04 GAA in the playoffs, is 9-3-2 with a .910 SP in 16 career games against the Lightning.
2. Tampa Bay D Victor Hedman had six points - all on assists - against Boston after failing to hit the scoresheet in the first round.
3. The Lightning have won the last eight playoff games against the Capitals, taking the final four contests in 2003 and sweeping in 2011.
PREDICTION: Lightning 4, Capitals 2
NHL
Long Sheet
Friday, May 11
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WASHINGTON (57-28-0-9, 123 pts.) at TAMPA BAY (62-25-0-5, 129 pts.) - 5/11/2018, 8:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WASHINGTON is 6-12 ATS (-12.9 Units) when playing with 3 or more days rest over the last 2 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 63-30 ATS (+32.0 Units) in all games this season.
TAMPA BAY is 32-16 ATS (+1.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
TAMPA BAY is 232-234 ATS (+541.2 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1996.
WASHINGTON is 58-37 ATS (+11.6 Units) in all games this season.
WASHINGTON is 34-21 ATS (+7.6 Units) second half of the season this season.
WASHINGTON is 25-14 ATS (+7.4 Units) after a division game this season.
WASHINGTON is 20-8 ATS (+10.5 Units) in road games revenging a home loss versus opponent over the last 3 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 26-11 ATS (+11.0 Units) revenging a loss versus opponent this season.
WASHINGTON is 34-19 ATS (+13.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
WASHINGTON is 19-11 ATS (+7.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season this season.
Head-to-Head Series History
WASHINGTON is 6-3 (+3.2 Units) against the spread versus TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
WASHINGTON is 6-3-0 straight up against TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
4 of 8 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+0.0 Units)
NHL
Friday, May 11
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Trend Report
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Washington Capitals
Washington is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Washington is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Washington's last 6 games
Washington is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games on the road
Washington is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Washington's last 6 games on the road
Washington is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Tampa Bay
Washington is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games when playing Tampa Bay
The total has gone OVER in 14 of Washington's last 20 games when playing Tampa Bay
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Washington's last 10 games when playing on the road against Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay Lightning
Tampa Bay is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games
Tampa Bay is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
Tampa Bay is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games at home
Tampa Bay is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games at home
Tampa Bay is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Washington
Tampa Bay is 3-8 SU in its last 11 games when playing Washington
The total has gone OVER in 14 of Tampa Bay's last 20 games when playing Washington
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Tampa Bay's last 10 games when playing at home against Washington