NHL Betting News and Notes Thursday, October 12th, 2017

NHL Knowledge

Penguins won their last five games with Tampa Bay; they won three of last four games in this building. Over is 7-1 in last eight series games. Pittsburgh won last night in Washington; they won last two games after losing first two (over 2-2). Lightning won two of first three games (over 3-0), winning both home games, 5-3/4-3ot.

Blues are 4-0 to start season, with three road wins (over 2-2); they allowed five goals in last three games. Panthers split pair with Tampa Bay to start season (over 2-0), winning only home game 5-4. Road team won last five St Louis-Florida games; Blues won their last five visits here (under 3-2).

Nashville won three of last four games with Dallas; all four games went over. Dallas Stars lost three of last four visits to Music City. Stars lost two of first three games (over 2-1); they lost 4-2 in St Louis in their only road game. Predators lost two of first three games (over 2-1); they beat Flyers 6-5 in their only home game.

Chicago won its last three games with Minnesota, scoring 13 goals (over 3-0). Wild lost three of last four visits to Windy City. Minnesota lost its first two games 4-2/5-4so (over 2-0); they still haven’t played a home game. Blackhawks won three of first four games; they’re 2-0 at home, outscoring opponents 15-2 (over 2-0).

Road team won five of last six Detroit-Arizona games; Red Wings won last three visits to Arizona, with last two in SO/OT. Over is 5-2-1 in last eight series games. Detroit won two of its first three games (over 2-1), splitting pair on road, scoring 2 goals in both road games. Arizona is 0-3 (over 2-1) with two losses to an expansion team; they lost 2-1ot in only home game.

Winnipeg won six of last seven games with Vancouver; home team won seven of last nine series games. Under is 2-0-2 in last four series games. Jets won two of last three visits here. Winnipeg lost two of first three games (over 3-0), splitting pair of road games. Canucks split their first two games, both 3-2 games, both at home (under 2-0).

Buffalo won 8 of its last ten games with the Sharks; they’ve won five of last six visits to San Jose. Under is 3-1-2 in last six series games. Sabres lost first three games (over 2-0-1) by combined score of 15-7; they lost 6-3 in Brooklyn in their only road game. Sharks lost 5-3/4-1 in their first two games, both at home (over 1-0-1).

Armadillosports.com

NHL Picks and Betting Tips
By Parker Michaels
Bangthebook.com

We were on the right side of the coin flip last night with Calgary earning the overtime victory over Los Angeles to go along with a great goaltending effort from John Gibson in a Ducks win. I added the Bruins as a Twitter play which didn’t work out but it was still nice to bounce back with a winning night.

Speaking of the Bruins, what the heck is wrong with them? I know Bergeron is a big hole in the lineup but they just look absolutely terrible right now.

The parade is off in Toronto after getting leveled by the Devils last night. And now it’s on in New Jersey. Funny how parade routes change so often in the opening two weeks of the season. Seriously though, the Devils were impressive last night. This team has a lot of speed and are a confident group right now. My preseason numbers had them listed as the third most improved team over last year (behind Dallas and Carolina and slightly ahead of Arizona). Those other three teams have showed up frequently early here in the picks so I’m surprised the Devils haven’t made an appearance. It could be because they’ve played Colorado and Buffalo who are also two teams I rated as improving. With upcoming games against Washington, the Rangers and Ottawa, we might find better value spots soon.

It’s another busy night with seven games ahead and I somehow ended up writing a lot of words for each game below. Maybe that’s because there’s a lot of value on the board tonight and we have our largest number of selections of the season, to date, with four nice looking plays (okay, maybe one is a little cringeworthy. Read below to see which one I had a hard time hitting the submit button on.

PITTSBURGH PENGUINS @ TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING
Projected Goaltenders
Pittsburgh – Antti Niemi (probable)
Tampa Bay – Peter Budaj (possible)

Injury Report
Pittsburgh – Cole (out)
Tampa Bay – no significant injuries

Patric Hornqvist made his return last night and looked great, scoring a goal and adding an assist. Playing him on the third line with Conor Sheary really creates a lot of added depth for the Penguins which is something they were missing the first few games. It really allowed them to take advantage of a Washington team who are lacking depth right now and forcing their top players into heavy minutes.

Pittsburgh might not have that luxury tonight as the Bolts have four pretty solid forward lines. Tampa is still trying to figure things out on their third defensive pair but other than that they’ve looked better each game.

Tampa’s depth could wear down the Pens late in this one with Pittsburgh on the back-to-back but this should be a good game and one I’m probably not touching. One beat writer told me the plan is to start Niemi tonight and I think Budaj is going for Tampa but I wasn’t able to confirm this overnight. My line above is already accounting for both backups in net. I imagine this will open around the -120 mark and unless one of the starters ends up playing, this will likely just be a good one to watch and enjoy.

ST. LOUIS BLUES @ FLORIDA PANTHERS

Projected Goaltenders
St. Louis – Jake Allen (probable)
Florida – Roberto Luongo (confirmed)

Injury Report
St. Louis – Fabbri (out), Berglund (out), Steen (out), Bouwmeester (out)
Florida – no significant injuries

The Blues won yet again on Monday in New York to run their record to a perfect 4-0. They’ve outscored teams 7-2 in the opening 20 minutes but have had to survive onslaughts in all their games, being outscored 6-3 in third periods. Jaden Schwartz and Brayden Schenn have really stepped up offensively to make up for several injuries and they’ve managed to hold off teams late thanks to outstanding goaltending from Jake Allen and Carter Hutton.

It’s been a bit of a smoke and mirrors show though as they’ve been badly outshot, out-chanced and out-controlled for the better part of their games. St. Louis has actually been one of the worst possession teams early in the season and now they head into Florida to play a team who has been the best possession team in the league. Take that with a grain of salt as Florida has only played two games (both vs. Tampa Bay) but they were completely dominant in both and were unfortunate to only come away with one win. It’s way too early to draw any sort of conclusions from this but the Panthers did look like a much different team with a healthy lineup again and the addition of Evgeny Dadonov (who looked outstanding).

This will be the fourth road game in five games to begin the season for St. Louis and this will be their fourth game in the last six nights so maybe this is a spot where the lack of depth catches up to them a bit. Jake Allen is expected in net after Hutton started last game while Roberto Luongo will get his first home start for the Cats. This line has opened quite short so we’ll jump on the Panthers here at -113.

DALLAS STARS @ NASHVILLE PREDATORS

Projected Goaltenders
Dallas – Ben Bishop (confirmed)
Nashville – Pekka Rinne/Juuse Saros (unknown)

Injury Report
Dallas – Hamhuis (out)
Nashville – Ellis (out), Josi (questionable)

Both these teams may have a 1-2-0 record but they’ve looked nothing alike in the early going. Dallas has looked like the contender many expected them to be – as long as Ben Bishop is in net. The Stars losses have been a result of Kari Lehtonen’s poor play but Bishop has been outstanding with a 1.15 goals-against-average and .955 save percentage. Dallas have said the plan is for Bishop to start the next two games.

There was a pretty significant move made by the Stars earlier this week as Remi Elie was recalled after Adam Cracknell was waived. Elie had a sensational training camp and really made the team but had to be sent down in one of those paper transactions to make the roster work. He’s a high energy player with a ton of speed and that was clearly on display Tuesday night against Detroit. Elie’s addition has allowed Hitchcock to juggle the lineup to create a lot of balance. He slotted onto the second line wing beside Spezza and Ritchie (he could be a nice cheap DFS play for tonight)

Nashville earned their first win on Tuesday night with a wild victory over Philadelphia. They led that game 3-0, trailed 5-3, and then won 6-5 thanks to some late powerplay magic. In my preview for that game I had mentioned how the Preds bottom three defense had really struggled and it might be time for Sam Girard to get into a game. Well, Girard did in fact make his NHL debut that night thanks to the Roman Josi injury and he didn’t disappoint. There were some naturally hiccups as with any young player but he was pretty solid logging 18:52 of ice-time and recorded an assist. It would benefit Nashville if they keep the youngster in the lineup when Josi returns but we’ll have to see. Speaking of Josi, he’s day-to-day and because Nashville didn’t hold a practice on Wednesday, we’ll have to wait for the morning skate to see what his availability is.

Regardless whether Josi plays or not though, there’s value in Dallas at the current number and we’ll play them at +104. Any price at plus money today is good here.

MINNESOTA WILD @ CHICAGO BLACKHAWKS

Projected Goaltenders
Minnesota – Devyn Dubnyk (confirmed)
Chicago – Corey Crawford (confirmed)

Injury Report
Minnesota – Granlund (out), Parise (out)
Chicago – Hossa (out), Schmaltz (out)

The Wild have been off since last Saturday and the early break was much needed for this team. They looked out of sorts in losses to Detroit and Carolina but having a few days to practice should do them a ton of good.

Mikael Granlund and Zach Parise are both still out which is going to be a problem. Parise has yet to play this season but has been practicing with the team all week. Boudreau said he won’t play though and is unlikely to play Saturday, as well. Granlund is likely to miss up to the next four games. Because of Minnesota’s salary cap issues they don’t have enough money to recall a forward so they are going to be playing tonight with just 11 forwards and seven defensemen.

Rather than shuffle four lines like last game, the plan is to just play three lines tonight with the two extras (Cullen and Winnik) rotating in as needed.

The Blackhawks are expecting to have Nick Schmaltz back in the lineup after missing the last two games and that’s a big boost as they looked terrible against Toronto and then Montreal. They stole a win in Montreal thanks to 41 saves from Corey Crawford but make no mistake, Montreal completely dominated that game. The shots on goal were 42-25 and shot attempts were 83-46 for the Canadiens.

I mentioned the other day how Patrick Kane looked almost invisible the first game without Schmaltz and, well, Kane was so ineffective against Montreal he was bumped down to the fourth line for some of the game. Pretty weird. This team looked completely different with Schmaltz out as it revealed how tenuous Chicago’s depth is. This is still a very good top-end team but as we’re already witnessed, any injury to a top-six forward is going to be felt.

This is a bit of a strange game for me. Tonight’s situation certainly doesn’t sound good for the Wild but after taking everything into consideration, my numbers still show an edge for Minnesota so that’s what we’re going to play tonight. There’s been some overnight money already pushing this line down a fair bit from the -145 open so I’m not alone thinking this was an inflated number. Would be a great night for Dubnyk to steal one. Like Dallas, getting Minnesota at any plus number is good today.

DETROIT RED WINGS @ ARIZONA COYOTES

Projected Goaltenders
Detroit – Jimmy Howard (probable)
Arizona – Antti Raanta/Louis Domingue (unknown)

Injury Report
Detroit – Kronwall (probable), DeKeyser (questionable)
Arizona – Chychrun (out), Perlini (out)

The Wings have a couple of injuries on their blueline. Niklas Kronwall practiced on Wednesday with no issues and is hoping to make his season debut tonight while Danny DeKeyser is questionable. He left Tuesday’s game after blocking a shot but x-rays were negative and will try to go through the morning skate to determine if he can play tonight. Jimmy Howard should be in net after Mrazek was in last game (and wasn’t good). Howard is 2-0 with a 1.44 goals-against-average and .961 save percentage.

The struggle is real with Arizona as they’ve had a really tough time getting used to new coach Rick Tocchet’s system. They looked pretty good the first couple games but their inexperience cost them a couple of third period leads and then they looked completely overwhelmed by the moment in Vegas’ home opener Tuesday night. Antti Raanta has struggled in transitioning to a number one starter but I expect he’ll get it going here soon. Whether that’s tonight or not, I’m not sure, as it’s possible Domingue gets rewarded with a start after replacing Raanta in Vegas and doing a pretty good job.

This line opened in my range but has crept up to -115 overnight. If Domingue gets the start for Arizona, it will create enough value to play Detroit and you can bet them at -105 or better. It’s likely no play if Raanta starts. I’ll update on Twitter.

WINNIPEG JETS @ VANCOUVER CANUCKS

Projected Goaltenders
Winnipeg – Connor Hellebuyck (confirmed)
Vancouver –Anders Nilsson (possible)

Injury Report
Winnipeg – Byfuglien (out)
Vancouver – no significant injuries

Winnipeg earned their first win Monday night in Edmonton of all places. Connor Hellebuyck was brilliant in his first start, stopping 37 of 39 shots and will get the start again tonight. Dustin Byfuglien was a late scratch before that game and missed practice again on Wednesday. He won’t play tonight.

This will be Vancouver’s third game in a season opening four game homestand. After an impressive win over the Oilers they lost in a shootout to Ottawa last time out. The big news here tonight is it appears rookie Brock Boeser could finally make his much anticipated season debut. Boeser led the team in preseason scoring with four goals and three assists in just five games and it’s been a confusing puzzle to fans as to why he hasn’t been in the lineup yet.

I’ve never been so excited for anything involving Vancouver before, seriously. Boeser is the best young talent in the Canucks organization and has an incredible shot. I can’t wait to see him snipe his first goal. What’s even better for the Canucks is he practiced Wednesday on the top line with Bo Horvat and Sven Baertschi. Horvat and Boeser together might be the best thing to watch in the NHL tonight (I also highly endorse pairing them together as cheap options tonight in your DFS lineups).

Also good news for Canucks fans, Jake Virtanen is supposed to jump up onto a line with Loui Eriksson and Markus Granlund. I’m becoming a fan of new head coach Travis Green if it means he’s going to let the kids play as that’s desperately what this team needs.

Goaltending tonight, I’m not sure. But I think we might see Anders Nilsson get his first start and my line accounts for him in the net.
This line is within my range for no play but I suspect we’ll see some Winnipeg money today which will likely make Vancouver a play tonight. Our target number to play Vancouver here is +119 or higher. If you see that number today, lock it in. I’ll tweet an update for this one later.

BUFFALO SABRES @ SAN JOSE SHARKS

Projected Goaltenders
Buffalo – Robin Lehner (probable)
San Jose – Martin Jones/Aaron Dell (unknown)

Injury Report
Buffalo – Bogosian (out)
San Jose – Martin (questionable)

The Buffalo Sabres were supposed to be one of the most improved teams in the league this year but after a 0-2-1 start the panic button has already been hit. Giving up four shorthanded goals in three games might do that. Getting used to Phil Housley’s new system was expected to take some time but the way they have been carelessly turning over pucks and just the general lack of compete is quite worrisome.

So as the team embarks on a four game West Coast swing, Housley threw all the lines in a blender at Wednesday’s practice and flipped the switch. The result was a new set of lines which will see Evander Kane drop to the second line to try and get Ryan O’Reilly (who called himself “invisible” so far this year) and Kyle Okposo going. Girgensons will move up to the top line with Eichel and Pominville. Sam Reinhart was being tried at third line center but will now slide over to the wing and Johan Larsson will play center. I’m not a fan of any of this. I understand what Housley is trying to do but this doesn’t seem like a winning solution to me. O’Reilly just needs to man-up and play better.

The defense is also changing up as Marco Scandella is expected to finally take his rightful place on the top pair beside Ristolainen. Beaulieu will play on the second pair with Tennyson and Josh Gorges will insert into the lineup on the third pair, replacing rookie Victor Antipin. The Scandella move is great – inserting Gorges is not. We’ll see how these changes work out but I’m not optimistic.

The Sharks have been off since Saturday and we should see a desperate early season effort from them tonight. This is game three on a nice five game homestand to begin the season and they still don’t have a point in the standings.

DeBoer did some line shuffling as well in Wednesday’s practice, moving Tomas Hertl out of the third line center position and onto Logan Couture’s second line wing. San Jose is still trying to figure out how to fill the top-six hole left by Patrick Marleau and it’s been a rough experiment, so far.

Defenseman Paul Martin left practice early on Tuesday with an ankle issue and is questionable for tonight. Prospect Tim Heed would be inserted into the lineup if Martin can’t go (Heed could pair with Burns on the top pair and he was also on the top powerplay unit in practice which is of note for any DFS players to keep an eye on tonight).

Aaron Dell relieved Martin Jones in Saturday’s game against Los Angeles and could start but I think it’s probably more likely we’ll see Jones again tonight. Personally, I think Dell is going to prove to be a more effective goaltender than Jones and I’ll be looking to back the Sharks more often when he’s in net.

As it stands, the opener at -165 is too short and we’ll gladly play the Sharks tonight as our fourth play.