NHL betting trends, odds and predictions for Sunday, June 11th, 2017 from various handicappers and websites
Game 6 - Pens at Predators
By Sportsbook.ag
Pittsburgh vs. Nashville
Sportsbook.ag Odds: Pittsburgh (+120), Nashville (-140); Total set at 5.5
The Pittsburgh Penguins kept alive the trend of home teams winning in this series in a big way in Game 5 with a dominant 6-0 win to put themselves one win away from back-to-back Stanley Cup championships.
Right from the outset Pittsburgh jumped all over Nashville with a goal in the first two minutes and there was no looking back from there.
G Pekka Rinne's disastrous outings in Pittsburgh continued, as he was pulled early once again, and the Predators head home for Game 6 fighting to stay alive. Can Nashville force a Game 7 or is this series all but over?
Although I've said before that I have no problem backing a team and a goalie in a game following the netminder getting pulled, the patience the Predators have with Rinne has got to be wavering.
While I do believe we will see a much better performance by Rinne back at home – meaning 'under 5.5 is worth strong consideration – I don't think it will be enough for Nashville to force a Game 7.
Of the three Stanley Cups the Pittsburgh Penguins have won in the history of their franchise, all three of them have been clinched on the road. Last year it took a trip to San Jose for the Penguins to lift Lord Stanley's Mug and those positive memories should help them be much better in a similar situation here.
The fact that they absolutely buried Nashville from start to finish in Game 5 not only planted more seeds of doubt on Nashville's side, but it also renewed the tremendous confidence the Penguins have in themselves to get the job done.
Heck, Evgeni Malkin even said before the game that he knew Phil Kessel would score in Game 5, and wouldn't you know it, Kessel found himself on the scoresheet.
While many are likely going to continue to ride the streak of home teams winning in this series, it was just a few days ago where I outlined the history of that trend and why I believed no matter who won Game 5, this series would be over in six games. I'm not about to go back on those thoughts now, especially considering the dominant way Pittsburgh owned Game 5 from start to finish.
Pittsburgh has had a bit of trouble closing things out in their first try during these playoffs as they've needed at least two chances at moving on before they did in each round, but if trends are your thing, it's interesting to note that the Penguins closed out Round 1 at home, Round 2 on the road, Round 3 at home, and now they've got a chance to to finish Round 4 on the road.
There will be one win by a road team in this series, that outlined history suggests in all likelihood it will happen. And while Nashville has been a much different and nearly unbeatable at home this year in the playoffs, it really looked like they were getting to the end of their rope on multiple fronts in Game 5.
Confidence in Rinne is all but gone, and with the Penguins smelling blood, they find a way to close things out and clinch yet another Stanley Cup victory away from home.
Best Bet: Pittsburgh +120
Stanley Cup Final Game 6 Betting Preview: Penguins at Predators
Covers.com
Pittsburgh Penguins at Nashville Predators (-140, 5.5)
The Pittsburgh Penguins are poised to make history, bidding to become the first team to win back-to-back Stanley Cups since the Detroit Red Wings in 1997-98. The Penguins will go for the clincher when they visit the Nashville Predators on Sunday night in Game 6 of a best-of-seven series that has been defined by home dominance.
Captain Sidney Crosby and Co. moved within one win of hoisting Lord Stanley's Cup for the third time in nine seasons by demolishing the Predators 6-0 in Game 5, but Pittsburgh has been outscored 9-2 in dropping both matchups at Bridgestone Arena. "Still a lot of work to be done," Crosby acknowledged. "We know we're going to face a desperate team. We've already played two games there and know the atmosphere and know how much they feed off their fans. We've still got a lot of work to do there." So do the Predators, who rebounded from a pair of drubbings to win Games 3 and 4 and must hold serve again in Smashville, where they are 9-1 during the postseason. " ... What happened in Game 5 is gone. We know what we need to do in Game 6," Nashville coach Peter Laviolette said. "We know how we're capable of playing, especially in our building here and look to get ourselves a big win."
LINE HISTORY: Oddsmakers opened the Predators as -150 home favorites for Game 6, but they've been bet down slightly to the current number of Predators -140. The total is on the board at 5.5. Check out the complete line history here.
PROBABLE GOALIE MATCHUP: Matt Murray vs. Pekka Rinne
Murray - W/L: 6-3, GAA: 1.87, SAVE %: .931
Rinne - W/L: 14-7, GAA: 2.00, SAVE %: .928
INJURY REPORT:
Penguins - D O. Maatta (Probable Sunday, nose), C N. Bonino (Doubtful Sunday, lower body), RW T. Kuhnhackl (Out indefinitely, lower body), D C. Ruhwedel (Out indefinitely, concussion), D K. Letang (Out for season, neck).
Predators - D R. Ellis (Questionable Sunday, upper body), C R. Johansen (Out for season, thigh), LW K. Fiala (Out for season, leg).
ABOUT THE PENGUINS: Crosby won the Conn Smythe Trophy a year ago in leading Pittsburgh to the Cup and is lifting his game when it matters most, collecting three assists in Game 5 to give him seven points in the series and 27 in the postseason -- one behind teammate Evgeni Malkin. "I don't know that I've ever been around an athlete -- not just a hockey player but an athlete -- that is as driven as Sid is," Penguins coach Mike Sullivan said. "He sees the opportunity in front of us, and he's doing everything within his power to try to help us be successful." Malkin, the 2009 Conn Smythe winner, is in position to win it twice with a goal and an assist in Game 5 to boost his playoff-leading total.
ABOUT THE PREDATORS: Veteran netminder Pekka Rinne was yanked for the second time in the series after allowing three goals on nine shots in Game 5 but, like his team, has been superb at Bridgestone Arena, turning aside 50 of 52 shots in Games 3 and 4. "I’m worried about his record now at home, and it’s been outstanding,” Predators captain Mike Fisher said of Rinne. “We gotta focus on that game. We gotta be better for our goaltender, no question. You look at the shots, and they’re even, but it’s scoring chances, quality chances. That’s not our goaltender’s fault.” Center Colton Sissons was cleared to play after receiving a match penalty in Game 5, but has registered only one assist in the past four games.
TRENDS:
* Home team is 8-0 in the last eight meetings.
* Penguins 1-4 in their last five road games.
* Under is 4-0 in Penguins last four after scoring five goals or more in their previous game.
* Under is 8-2-3 in Predators last 13 home games.
PITTSBURGH (65-28-0-13, 143 pts.) at NASHVILLE (55-35-0-13, 123 pts.)
Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 31-43 ATS (-23.2 Units) in a road game where where the total is 5.5 over the last 3 seasons.
PITTSBURGH is 5-12 ATS (-9.0 Units) in road games after a non-conference game this season.
NASHVILLE is 23-9 ATS (+9.2 Units) in home games second half of the season this season.
NASHVILLE is 24-6 ATS (+15.0 Units) in home games when playing with 2 days rest over the last 3 seasons.
NASHVILLE is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in home games when trailing in a playoff series over the last 2 seasons.
NASHVILLE is 243-195 ATS (+467.5 Units) revenging a loss versus opponent since 1996.
NASHVILLE is 37-19 ATS (+12.2 Units) after scoring 1 goal or less in their previous game over the last 3 seasons.
NASHVILLE is 35-22 ATS (+7.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
NASHVILLE is 27-15 ATS (+10.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season this season.
PITTSBURGH is 129-83 ATS (+6.0 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
PITTSBURGH is 86-51 ATS (+12.0 Units) second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
PITTSBURGH is 49-32 ATS (+10.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
NASHVILLE is 32-37 ATS (-17.9 Units) in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
PITTSBURGH is 7-4 (+2.5 Units) against the spread versus NASHVILLE over the last 3 seasons
PITTSBURGH is 7-4-0 straight up against NASHVILLE over the last 3 seasons
6 of 11 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+1.3 Units)
PITTSBURGH vs. NASHVILLE
Pittsburgh is 4-8 SU in its last 12 games when playing on the road against Nashville
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Pittsburgh's last 8 games when playing Nashville
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Nashville's last 8 games when playing Pittsburgh
Nashville is 14-7 SU in its last 21 games
PITTSBURGH @ NASHVILLE
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Pittsburgh's last 8 games when playing Nashville
Pittsburgh is 11-4 SU in its last 15 games when playing Nashville
Nashville is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Nashville's last 8 games when playing Pittsburgh