NHL betting trends, odds and predictions for Monday, May 29th, 2017 from various handicappers and websites
NHL Knowledge
Nashville is in its first Stanley Cup final; they won five of last seven games overall, splitting last four road games. Under is 6-2-2 in their last ten games- they haven’t played in a week. Penguins won Game 7 Thursday; they won last three home games by combined score of 11-2. Under is 4-2-2 in their last eight games. Pittsburgh is 8-2 in its last ten games with the Predators; last three series games went over total. Nashville lost four of last five visits here. Penguins won Cup LY and in 2009; they’re 4-1 overall in Stanley Cup final series.
Armadillosports.com
Stanley Cup Final Game 1 Betting Preview: Predators at Penguins
Nashville Predators at Pittsburgh Penguins (-165, 5.5)
No team has won back-to-back Stanley Cup titles since 1998, a drought the Pittsburgh Penguins can end when they open the best-of-seven series against the visiting Nashville Predators on Monday night. The Penguins are the prohibitive favorites to hoist Lord Stanley's trophy at the expense of the upstart Predators, who are appearing in their first Stanley Cup Final.
Pittsburgh features the top three scorers in the postseason in Evgeni Malkin, captain Sidney Crosby and Phil Kessel, and is the first team to reach the Cup Final in back-to-back seasons since the Penguins in 2008 and 2009, but the players are trying to push aside that historical narrative. "We don't want to worry too much about whether it's repeating or going back-to-back," forward Conor Sheary said. "I think we just want to come into this series and win another round. I think it's important to just worry about the next game, have a short memory and the first to four wins." Nashville was the No. 8 seed in the Western Conference and posted the fewest points of any of the 16th playoff participants, but swept Chicago in the opening round before dispatching St. Louis and Anaheim in a pair of six-game series. "When the puck drops, we'll be ready to play. The guys are excited to reach this point," said the Predators' Peter Laviolette, who along with Penguins counterpart Mike Sullivan are the first American coaches to square off for hockey's top prize.
LINE HISTORY: The Penguins opened the betting as -140 home favorites and by Sunday night were bet all of the way up to -165. The total opened at 5.5 and has yet to move.
GOALIE MATCHUP: Pekka Rinne (NAS) vs. Matt Murray (PIT)
Rinne - GP: 16, W/L: 12-4, 1.70 GAA, .941 SAVE %, 2 SO
Murray - GP: 5, W/L: 3-1, 1.35 GAA, .946 SAVE %, 1 SO
INJURY REPORT:
Predators - RW C. Smith (Probable, lower body), C M. Fisher (Probable, eye), C R. Johansen (Out For Season, thigh), LW K. Fiala (Out For Season, leg).
Penguins - RW P. Hornqvist (Questionable, upper body), RW T. Kuhnhackl (Questionable, lower body), D C. Ruhwedel (Probable, concussion), D K. Letang (Out for season, neck).
ABOUT THE PREDATORS (53-32-9-4, 44-42 O/U): The daunting challenge of trying to match up against Crosby and Malkin is exacerbated by the absence of top-line center Ryan Johansen (thigh), lost for the rest of the playoffs after Game 4 against Anaheim. Colton Sissons stepped in for Johansen and supplied a hat trick in the series clincher against the Ducks, but the Predators will continue to rely heavily on Filip Forsberg, a 31-goal scorer during the regular season who scored five times against Anaheim and is riding a seven-game point streak. While No. 2 center Mike Fisher appears poised to return from injury, Nashville's strength is at the other end of the ice, with its top four defensemen -- Roman Josi, Ryan Ellis, P.K. Subban and Mattias Ekholm -- combining for a staggering 39 points in 16 playoff games. Still, the Predators' hopes likely hinge on 34-year-old Pekka Rinne, who is 12-4 with a 1.70 goals-against average and a .941 save percentage in the postseason.
ABOUT THE PENGUINS (62-26-8-5, 55-39 O/U): Malkin (24 points) and Crosby (20) are running 1-2 in the playoff scoring race and seemingly shine when the lights are brightest -- each has won a Conn Smythe Trophy -- but Malkin observed that Nashville's defense will provide the "toughest challenge of my life." Kessel notched six points in the seven-game series against Ottawa, but fellow 23-goal scorer Sheary has yet to tally in the playoffs while Jake Guentzel is mired in an eight-game goal drought after scoring nine times in the first 11 games of the postseason. Matt Murray, who backstopped Pittsburgh to a championship a year ago following a late-season injury to Marc-Andre Fleury, reclaimed the starting job from Fleury in the Ottawa series and went 3-1 with six goals allowed in his four starts. Forward Patric Hornqvist, acquired from Nashville in exchange for forward James Neal in June 2014, is a game-time decision after sitting out the final six contests against the Senators.
TRENDS:
* Predators are 6-1 in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
* Penguins are 5-0 in their last 5 games playing on 3 or more days rest.
* Under is 11-2-4 in Predators last 17 when their opponent allows 2 goals or less in their previous game.
* Under is 8-1 in Penguins last 9 Stanley Cup Finals games.
* Predators are 2-8 in the last 10 meetings.
CONSENSUS: 60 percent of users are siding with the home favorite Penguins and 60 percent of the totals wagers are on the Under.
NASHVILLE (53-32-0-13, 119 pts.) at PITTSBURGH (62-26-0-13, 137 pts.)
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
PITTSBURGH is 4-2 (+1.5 Units) against the spread versus NASHVILLE over the last 3 seasons
PITTSBURGH is 4-2-0 straight up against NASHVILLE over the last 3 seasons
3 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=-0.2 Units, Under=-0.3 Units)
NASHVILLE vs. PITTSBURGH
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Nashville's last 6 games when playing on the road against Pittsburgh
Nashville is 12-4 SU in its last 16 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 6 games when playing at home against Nashville
Pittsburgh is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Nashville
Stanley Cup Finals Betting Preview
By Sportsbook.ag
Nashville vs. Pittsburgh
Sportsbook.ag Odds: Nashville (+145), Pittsburgh (-165); Total set at 5.5
After a few days without action, the 2017 Stanley Cup Finals get going tonight and it should be a highly entertaining series between two teams that like to play fast. Both Nashville and Pittsburgh have overcome their fair share of key injuries to get to this point which has been quite impressive, but now it's time to finish the deal.
The Penguins know what that is all about as they are looking to repeat, while Nashville has yet to even trail in a series en route to this point. Will that change tonight?
Typically Game 1's of a series – especially the Stanley Cup Finals – are filled with nerves and tentativeness from both sides. That style of play leads to fewer goals scored and a tight-checking contest because neither side wants to go down 0-1.
This appears to be the line of thought by many this evening though, as VegasInsider.com's betting percentage numbers show about an 80/20 split in favor of the 'under' tonight. Historical trends like that can play a big role in one's thinking this time of year, but with the majority going to the 'under', I've got no problem going the other way.
When you look at this from an oddsmakers perspective, hanging up a 5.5 for Game 1 is a little peculiar. You know going into Game 1 that you'll typically get 'under' action on the total as an oddsmaker, so why give bettors that extra hook (with some extra juice), when we only saw two totals of 5.5 in the Conference Finals.
In fact, Nashville hasn't seen a 5.5 total since their opening game of the playoffs vs. Chicago (1-0 Nashville win), and thanks to some stellar goaltending by Pekka Rinne, the Predators have only cashed three 'over' bets all spring long. There have been plenty of pushes at flat totals of '5', but only three Nashville playoff games have had 6+ goals scored.
Knowing that, and the notion that the majority of bettors will lean towards 'unders' in Game 1, makes putting a 5.5 number out there almost appear like bait to those who are looking to go low on this total but are still a bit undecided.
When you look back at the three Nashville games that had 6+ goals scored, two of them came last round vs. Anaheim, and the third was back in Game 1 of their second round series against St Louis.
So there is a history, albeit a very minor one, of Nashville bucking that Game 1 'under' trend in these playoffs and given how many low-scoring games they've played that is a little surprising. But this Penguins team does match up well with Nashville from a stylistic standpoint, and the two teams weren't afraid to go back and forth in their two meetings this year.
The two teams traded home victories, but more importantly for this wager, both contests had 6 goals scored, and each team had 30+ shots in both of the games. Yes, regular season hockey is different than playoff hockey, especially Stanley Cup Finals hockey, but with all the speed and skill both teams posses, you will see plenty of end to end rushes this evening (and throughout the series), meaning the oddsmakers are likely right to hang a 5.5 total on Game 1 and live with the result.
Predators G Pekka Rinne isn't likely to continually stand on his head – especially against a Pittsburgh team that can come at you in waves. Offensively, Nashville has thrived on their aggressive nature in every round so far as the perceived underdog, and that role doesn't change for them in this series.
Nashville's got an extremely active defense that is particularly good for 'over' bets (either they end up scoring or are more likely to get caught up ice to give up a scoring chance), and the extra rest won't hurt either side. In fact, the Preds are on a 3-1-1 O/U run after having 3+ days off and the Penguins are on a 7-1-1 O/U run in the same scenario.
This puzzling total of 5.5 was hung with a hook for a reason, as I expect we see quite a few goals tonight to open up the Stanley Cup Finals.
Best Bet: Over 5.5 +125