NHL betting trends, odds and predictions for Thursday, May 25th, 2017 from various handicappers and websites
NHL Knowledge
Game 7 in series where home team is 4-2; Senators lost five of last six games in Steel City, getting blanked 1-0/7-0 in last two games in this arena. Under is 5-2-1 in last eight series games, since an 8-5 Penguin win here back in December. Ottawa lost four of last six road games; they have a whole country rooting for them- no Canadian franchise has won Stanley Cup since 1993. Pittsburgh has last line change, also the pressure of playing at home- they’re 3-2 in last five home games overall. Penguins are 5-22 on power play in their last seven games; Ottawa is 1-32 on power play in their last 11 games.
Armadillosports.com
Game 7 - Senators at Penguins
VegasInsider.com
For the second straight season, the Penguins will be playing a Game 7 at home in the Eastern Conference Finals. Last season, Pittsburgh edged Tampa Bay, 2-1 to advance to the Stanley Cup Final before knocking out San Jose in six games to capture the franchise's fourth championship. The Senators were a substantial underdog heading into this series as Ottawa looks for its second trip to the Stanley Cup Final in franchise history.
Pittsburgh couldn't close the door on Ottawa in Tuesday's Game 6 by losing to the Senators, 2-1. The Penguins have won two of three home games in this series, including a 7-0 rout of the Senators in Game 5 at PPG Paints Arena.
The Senators have never won a Game 7 in franchise history by posting an 0-5 mark with the most recent defeat coming to the Rangers in the 2012 Eastern Conference quarterfinals. Ottawa has dropped three consecutive playoff series to Pittsburgh since 2008 with the only postseason series victory coming against the Penguins in 2007, when the Senators reached the Stanley Cup Final.
The Penguins opened as -200 favorites in Game 7, while the Senators sit at +170 at most sports books. The total is listed at 5, but shaded to the 'over' at -135.
Road teams have gone 38-42 in this year’s NHL playoffs, while owning a 5-7 mark in the conference finals.
There have been 168 all-time Game 7’s in the NHL Playoffs and the home squad owns a 98-70 (58.3%) record.
Recent Game 7 History
Pittsburgh
2017 Conference Semifinals - Beat Capitals on road 2-0
2016 Conference Finals - Beat Lightning at home 2-1
Ottawa
2012 Conference Quarterfinals - Lost to Rangers on road 2-1
2004 Conference Quarterfinals - Lost to Maple Leafs on road 4-1
The winning team in eight of the last 12 Game 7's scored just two goals, as eight of those games finished under the total.
NHL Game 7 Playoff History (2012-2017)
2017
Pittsburgh Penguins 2 at Washington Capitals 0
Edmonton Oilers 1 at Anaheim Ducks 2
2016
Tampa Bay Lightning 1 at Pittsburgh Penguins 2
Nashville Predators 0 at San Jose Sharks 5
St. Louis Blues 6 at Dallas Stars 1
Nashville Predators 2 at Anaheim Ducks 1
Chicago Blackhawks 2 at St. Louis Blues 3
2015
Tampa Bay Lightning 2 at New York Rangers 0
Chicago Blackhawks 5 at Anaheim Ducks 3
New York Rangers 2 at Washington Capitals 1
Tampa Bay Lightning 2 at Detroit Red Wings 0
Washington Capitals 2 at New York Islanders 1
2014
Los Angeles Kings 5 at Chicago Blackhawks 4 (OT)
Los Angeles Kings 6 at Anaheim Ducks 2
Montreal Canadiens 3 at Boston Bruins 1
New York Rangers 2 at Pittsburgh Penguins 1
Philadelphia Flyers 3 at New York Rangers 4
Minnesota Wild 5 at Colorado Avalanche 4
Los Angeles Kings 5 at San Jose Sharks 1
2013
New York Rangers 5 at Washington Capitals 0
Toronto Maple Leafs 4 at Boston Bruins 5 (OT)
Detroit Red Wings 3 at Anaheim Ducks 2
Detroit Red Wings 1 at Chicago Blackhawks 2 (OT)
San Jose Sharks 1 at Los Angeles Kings 2
2012
Ottawa Senators 1 at New York Rangers 2
Washington Capitals 2 at Boston Bruins 1 (OT)
New Jersey Devils 3 at Florida Panthers 2 (2OT)
Washington Capitals 1 at New York Rangers 2
Thursday's NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs Betting Preview
Covers.com
Ottawa Senators at Pittsburgh Penguins (-200, 5)
The Ottawa Senators bounced back from a lopsided drubbing with a gritty home victory over the reigning Stanley Cup champions to force a decisive Game 7 in the Eastern Conference final. Ottawa looks to advance to the Stanley Cup Final for the first time since 2007 and deny Pittsburgh a return trip when they visit the Penguins on Thursday night.
Continuing their improbable postseason journey will require the Senators to dethrone Pittsburgh at PPG Paints Arena -- a venue where they suffered a humbling 7-0 beatdown in Game 5. “We wanted to force Game 7 and that’s what we did," Ottawa forward Zack Smith said while acknowledging the Senators are well aware they are considered an overwhelming underdog. “That’s fine with us. I feel it’s been that way for most of the year and playoffs. That’s fine, we’ll play that role.” The Penguins are bidding to become the first team to make back-to-back appearances in the Cup Final since they turned the trick in 2008-09, but have a checkered history in winner-takes-all matchups with an all-time record of 3-7 record in Game 7s at home. “We’ve been in this situation before,” Pittsburgh defenseman Trevor Daley said. “We’re a confident team in here. We have a lot of veteran guys. We’ve been here before. We know what we need to do to get the job done in Game 7.”
LINE HISTORY: The Penguins opened as massive -225 moneyline favorites but by Wednesday evening that line was down to -200. The total opened at 5 and is not expected to move.
GOALIE MATCHUP: Craig Anderson vs. Matt Murray
Anderson - GP: 18, W/L: 11-6, 2.36 GAA, .922 SAVE %, 1 SO
Murray - GP: 4, W/L: 2-1, 1.33 GAA, .950 SAVE %, 1 SO
INJURY REPORT:
Senators - D M. Borowiecki (Questionable, leg), LW A. Burrows (Doubtful, leg).
Penguins - RW P. Hornqvist (Questionable, upper body), D J. Schultz (Questionable, upper body), RW T. Kuhnhackl (Questionable, lower body), D C. Ruhwedel (Questionable, concussion), D K. Letang (Out for season, neck).
ABOUT THE SENATORS (55-34-7-4, 39-53 O/U): Craig Anderson was away from the team for half the season to be with his wife during her cancer treatments, so the fact the he bounced back with a superlative 45-save effort in Game 6 after being yanked in the 7-0 debacle was no surprise to Ottawa. "It starts with the goalie," Senators coach Guy Boucher said. "It's like a quarterback in football and a pitcher in baseball, and we have it. We got that guy." Veteran Bobby Ryan, taken No. 2 overall in the 2005 NHL draft behind Pittsburgh captain Sidney Crosby, scored 13 times in 62 regular-season games but has six goals in 18 playoff contests after his tying tally in Game 6. Ryan's goal also ended Ottawa's 0-for-29 power-play drought.
ABOUT THE PENGUINS (61-26-8-5, 55-39 O/U): Pittsburgh has the luxury of sending out a pair of Conn Smythe Trophy winners in Crosby and Evgeni Malkin, who guided the team to Cup titles in 2016 and 2009, respectively. Crosby scored in three straight games prior to Tuesday's 2-1 setback and is tied for second in the postseason in scoring with 19 points. "I just think he in particular has played in arguably the most high-stakes environments in all different venues, whether it be the NHL, the Olympics, the World Cup," Penguins coach Mike Sullivan said. "He has such a wealth of experience to draw on and he's a fierce competitor." So is Malkin, who scored Pittsburgh's lone goal in Game 6 to boost his playoff-leading total to 24 points.
TRENDS:
* Senators are 1-4 in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
* Penguins are 24-8 in their last 32 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
* Under is 6-2-1 in Senators last 9 Conference Finals games.
* Under is 8-3-1 in Penguins last 12 home games.
* Senators are 3-14 in the last 17 meetings in Pittsburgh.
CONSENSUS: 67 percent of users are siding with the home favorite Penguins and 60 percent of the totals wagers are on the Over.
OTTAWA (55-35-0-10, 120 pts.) at PITTSBURGH (61-26-0-13, 135 pts.)
Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 125-81 ATS (+225.1 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
PITTSBURGH is 30-12 ATS (+12.2 Units) in a home game where where the total is 5 or less over the last 2 seasons.
PITTSBURGH is 82-49 ATS (-5.4 Units) second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
OTTAWA is 55-45 ATS (+104.5 Units) in all games this season.
OTTAWA is 35-29 ATS (+67.0 Units) second half of the season this season.
OTTAWA is 31-20 ATS (+56.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
OTTAWA is 19-13 ATS (+35.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season this season.
Head-to-Head Series History
PITTSBURGH is 9-6 (+0.1 Units) against the spread versus OTTAWA over the last 3 seasons
PITTSBURGH is 9-6-0 straight up against OTTAWA over the last 3 seasons
7 of 14 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=-0.7 Units, Under=-0.9 Units)
OTTAWA vs. PITTSBURGH
Ottawa is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Ottawa is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Pittsburgh's last 11 games at home
Thursday's Best Bet
By Sportsbook.ag
Ottawa vs. Pittsburgh
Sportsbook.ag Odds: Ottawa (+175), Pittsburgh (-205), Total set at 5
We've got a Game 7 with a berth in the Stanley Cup Finals on the line tonight and the heavily favored Pittsburgh Penguins are the team many expect to get the job done.
It's tough to go against the defending champs in a spot like this; at home, heavy favorites, more talent on paper, but this series has had four of the six games decided by a single goal, so things could very well be tighter than most expect.
Ottawa has defied the odds this entire playoffs, and if they can do it one more time they'll end up with home ice advantage in the Finals. So where should your money be going tonight?
Pittsburgh are the heavy favorites, and for good reason, but anything can happen in a Game 7, and given how tight the majority of this series has been, it's tough to ignore the value here. Yes, Ottawa was blown out 7-0 the last time they were in this building (Game 5), but in an interesting tidbit of a trend, we've seen two other teams score 7 goals in a playoff game during this postseason (San Jose in Round 1, Edmonton in Round 2) and not only did those teams lose the next game like Pittsburgh did in Game 6, but both failed to win that specific series.
Pittsburgh's got more then enough talent and skill to snap a trend like that, but this team has also played a ton of hockey over the past year or so and eventually that can catch up to guys. From last year's Stanley Cup championship, to the World Cup for many guys this fall, to another deep playoff run, it might simply be a matter of time before this Pittsburgh team runs out of gas.
Given the odds for tonight's game, it's definitely not a bad idea to think that the Penguins tank hits empty this evening.
From Ottawa's perspective, the solid performance they got from top to bottom in Game 6 was enough to put the disastrous Game 5 behind them. G Craig Anderson definitely found his confidence again as he was dominant (especially in the 2nd period) in Game 6, and he knows he'll have to put together a similar performance tonight on the road.
That isn't nothing new for him though given Games 1 and 2 in Pittsburgh ended in 2-1 and 1-0 scores, so the Anderson we saw in Game 5 was more of an outlier than anything.
Offensively, Ottawa has to be prepared to push things when they get their opportunities, and throw every decent look towards the net. It worked for them in Game 3 when they chased Marc-Andre Fleury from the pipes, and it worked again in the latter half of Game 6 when they were able to tie things up and eventually take the lead.
They've got a good host of guys that can find the back of the net themselves, and the quicker (and longer) they are able to take the crowd out of things tonight and put more and more pressure on the heavily favored Penguins, the better the chances are for Ottawa to move on.
When it comes down to it, these plays are about value in a one game, winner-take-all situation. Ottawa would love to finish this series the way they began it with a win in Pittsburgh, and they are more then capable of doing so.
Pittsburgh is just 2-5 SU in their last seven games after allowing two goals or less, and after being a hefty underdog themselves in Game 7 last round vs Washington, the tables could easily get flipped tonight as Ottawa moves on to their second Stanley Cup Final in modern franchise history.
Best Bets: Ottawa +1.5 -170 and Ottawa +175