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NHL Betting News and Notes Saturday, May 13th, 2017

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NHL betting trends, odds and predictions for Saturday, May 13th, 2017 from various handicappers and websites

 
Posted : May 13, 2017 9:18 am
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NHL Knowledge

Home side won six of last seven Ottawa-Pittsburgh games; Senators lost last four games in Steel City by combined score of 21-12- their last game here was an 8-5 loss in December. Over is 5-3 in last eight series games. Ottawa just beat the Rangers in six games to get here; they’re 4-2 on road in playoffs. Over is 3-0-2 in their last five games. Penguins just won Game 7 in Washington Wednesday; they split their last four home games. Over is 6-4 in their last ten games. Pittsburgh is 2-17 on power play in last five games; Ottawa is 0-14 in its last five games.

Armadillosports.com

 
Posted : May 13, 2017 9:19 am
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NHL: Streaks, Tips, Notes
Sportspic.com

Ottawa Senators at Pittsburgh Penguins

The Ottawa Senators are in the conference finals for the third time in franchise history and first since 2007, when they fell to the Anaheim Ducks in the Stanley Cup Finals. Standing in the Senators’ way of a second trip to the Cup Finals is defending champion Pittsburgh and superstar Sidney Crosby. The Penguins are series favourites on Sports Interaction NHL odds, but the Senators are used to being underdogs.

Ottawa Senators

Perhaps I shouldn’t be the one previewing an Ottawa series as I’m 0-2 picking against the Senators in these playoffs. They were +110 series underdogs at Sports Interaction in the first round against Original Six club Boston and won that series in six, with every game decided by one goal and four going to overtime. In the conference semifinals, Ottawa was a +108 dog on the series line against Original Six club the New York Rangers and won that in Game 6 on Tuesday.

No player is going to win the Conn Smythe Trophy as playoff MVP if his team doesn’t win the Stanley Cup. However, if you had to give that award to someone through two rounds, it would have to be Senators defenseman and two-time Norris Trophy winner Erik Karlsson. He leads the Senators and all NHL blueliners in these playoffs with 13 points (2G, 11 A). Karlsson has been on the ice for the game-winning goal in each Ottawa victory. He had the game-winning assist in Games 3-4 vs. Boston and Game 5 vs. the Rangers. Karlsson had the winning goal in Games 1 & 6 vs. New York. He is the first defenseman in Senators history to score multiple game-winning goals in a single postseason and is averaging a whopping 28:57 of ice time per night.

Craig Anderson had 37 saves in the clincher against the Rangers and now has 18 career playoff wins, tying Ray Emery for second in franchise history. Anderson, a finalist for the 2017 Bill Masterton Memorial Trophy, is 8-4 with a 2.49 GAA and .914 save percentage in these playoffs, outplaying former Vezina Trophy winners Henrik Lundqvist of the Rangers and Tuukka Rask of the Bruins.

Jean-Gabriel Pageau blew up against the Rangers with six goals, a career-high four of those coming in the Game 2 6-5 double-OT win. The 24-year-old Ottawa native will never have to buy another drink in town again after scoring twice in the final 3:19 of Game 2 to tie the score and then netting the winner 2:54 into the second overtime. I don’t believe the Senators take the series without that comeback. Pageau had just 12 goals during the regular season. For an underdog to keep winning, unsung heroes like Pageau must emerge. Ottawa’s penalty-killers continued to impress as the Rangers were just 2-for-24 with the man advantage.

Ottawa was 2-1 vs. Pittsburgh this season, taking the most recent meeting 2-1 in a shootout at home on March 23. That was the game Crosby slashed Sens defenseman Marc Methot and blew up Methot’s finger. Crosby wasn’t penalized or disciplined by the league, which infuriated some Senators. Karlsson led the Sens with seven points (1G, 6A) in the three games. Mike Hoffman had three goals. Anderson was 0-1-0 with a 7.98 GAA and .837 save percentage. Backup Mike Condon was terrific in his two starts.

The Senators are +450 long shots to win their first Stanley Cup.

Pittsburgh Penguins

A cliché is a cliché because it’s usually true. One such cliché is a “champion’s heart.” The Penguins showed just such a thing Wednesday in Game 7 of their conference semifinal at the Washington Capitals, the NHL’s best regular-season team. After losing Games 5-6 by multiple goals each, Pittsburgh bounced the Capitals with 2-0 victory in the team’s best performance of these playoffs. The Caps again failing to reach the conference finals in the Alex Ovechkin Era is going to lead to big changes for that franchise, but that’s a story for another day.

Marc-Andre Fleury stopped all 29 shots Wednesday for his first shutout of these playoffs. Remember, he entered the postseason as the clear No. 2 to Matt Murray, but Murray was scratched with a lower-body injury about an hour before Game 1 of the Penguins’ first-round series against Columbus. Murray is healthy now, but he’s not taking Fleury’s job barring injury or Fleury suddenly slipping. He has a 2.55 GAA and .927 save percentage in the playoffs. This is likely Fleury’s final postseason with the team as he’s widely expected to be traded this offseason because Murray is the future in net.

One can’t project injuries when handicapping any series, but the prospect of Crosby suffering yet another concussion looms any time the Pens take the ice. He missed Game 4 of the Capitals series with a concussion and then took a head-first crash into the boards in Game 6 but came away fine. Crosby also missed the first six games of the regular season because of a concussion. The Cole Harbour native is tied for second on the team in these playoffs with 14 points (4G, 10 A). Evgeni Malkin leads with 18 (5G, 13 A). Jake Guentzel is the unlikely goals leader with nine. The rookie had 16 during the regular season in 40 games.

Two injuries to monitor for the Penguins, who have been ravaged by them all season: defenseman Trevor Daley missed the final two vs. the Caps and winger Carl Hagelin was out Game 7.

This is the fifth postseason meeting between Pittsburgh and Ottawa in the past 11 seasons, first since 2013. Pittsburgh has won three of those four. It took the 2013 conference semifinal in five games and scored 21 goals in those four wins. The series lasted 327 minutes and the Senators led for just 17 of them.
In losing two of three to the Sens during the season, Malkin (1G, 3A) and Bryan Rust (3G, 1A) led Pittsburgh with four points each, both playing in two games. Crosby had one goal. Fleury allowed four goals on 16 shots in his one outing.

The Penguins are +162 favourites to repeat as Cup champions, which no team has done since the Red Wings in 1998.

Senators vs. Penguins Predictions

If you go by regular-season statistics, this looks like a mismatch as the Pens were vastly superior to the Senators in scoring (No. 1 in league) and on the power play (No. 3) and a bit better on the PK. It might actually hurt Pittsburgh that it has home-ice advantage here if it goes to seven games as the franchise is now 6-0 in Game 7s away from Pittsburgh.

No Canadian club has won the Stanley Cup since Montreal in 1993 or made the Finals since Vancouver in 2011. That drought continues. Assuming Crosby stays healthy, Penguins in six (+446).

 
Posted : May 13, 2017 9:38 am
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Saturday’s Stanley Cup Playoffs Betting Preview
Covers.com

Ottawa Senators at Pittsburgh Penguins (-220, 5.5)

Coach Guy Boucher steadfastly has embraced the underdog role in the postseason to the point that he virtually squeezed the life out of the subject. While Boucher's assessment - honest or otherwise - was up for debate during the first two rounds, it likely rings true as his Ottawa Senators open their Eastern Conference finals series against the reigning Stanley Cup-champion Pittsburgh Penguins on Saturday at PPG Paints Arena.

Two-time Norris Trophy winner Erik Karlsson guided the Senators to six-game series victories over Boston and the New York Rangers despite playing with two hairline fractures in his left heel. The captain raised his team-high point total to 13 (two goals, 11 assists) by recording game-winning goals in the series opener and clincher against New York, and erupted for seven points (one goal, six assists) as Ottawa captured two of the three regular-season meetings with Pittsburgh. While the Senators are making their first trip to the conference finals since 2007 and third in franchise history, the Penguins are bidding to become first team since the Detroit Red Wings in 1997-98 to repeat as champions. Pittsburgh brushed off Columbus in five games before outlasting Presidents' Trophy-winning Washington in seven, with Evgeni Malkin (NHL-leading 18 points) and rookie Jake Guentzel (league-best nine goals) paving the way.

LINE HISTORY: The Penguins opened as -210 home chalk for Game 1 and that moneyline hasn’t moved off the opening number. The total hit the betting board at 5.5 and has yet to move.

INJURY REPORT:

Senators - LW Viktor Stalberg (Questionable, undisclosed), D Mark Borowiecki (Out Indefinitely, leg)

Penguins - D Trevor Daley (Questionable, lower body), D Kris Letang (Out For Season, neck)

ABOUT THE SENATORS (52-31-7-4, 47-50 O/U): Jean-Gabriel Pageau recorded six of his team-leading seven goals versus the Rangers on the heels of being limited to just 12 tallies on the season and one in the first-round series against the Bruins. Craig Anderson publicly was shredded for his questionable puck-handling decisions in the playoffs and was taken to task in his lone regular-season meeting with the Penguins, permitting seven goals on 43 shots in an 8-5 loss on Dec. 5. Mike Hoffman scored in all three encounters with Pittsburgh this season and tallied in each of the last two contests against New York.

ABOUT THE PENGUINS (58-24-7-5, 53-36 O/U): Coach Mike Sullivan let the cat out of the bag on Friday by stating that Marc-Andre Fleury "deserves the opportunity to play" even though regular-season starter Matt Murray has returned to health. Fleury saved his best for when it mattered most, recording a 29-save shutout in a 2-0 triumph over Washington in Game 7 of the second-round series to improve his goals-against average (.255) and save percentage (.927). "If we traded (Fleury), we wouldn't be in this room right now," Pittsburgh general manager Jim Rutherford said of the veteran, who was the subject of trade rumors throughout the season. "You'd be in another city. If not for our goalie, we wouldn't have won that series (against Washington)."

TRENDS:

* Senators are 4-1 in their last 5 Conference Finals games.
* Over is 3-0-2 in Senators last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.
* Over is 4-1-1 in Penguins last 6 Conference Finals games.
* Senators are 3-13 in the last 16 meetings in Pittsburgh.

CONSENSUS: 68 percent of the public is siding with the home team Pittsburgh Penguins on the moneyline and 63 percent are on the Over.

 
Posted : May 13, 2017 9:39 am
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OTTAWA (52-32-0-10, 114 pts.) at PITTSBURGH (58-24-0-12, 128 pts.)

Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 122-78 ATS (+217.2 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
PITTSBURGH is 79-46 ATS (-2.9 Units) second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
PITTSBURGH is 53-29 ATS (+9.8 Units) after a division game over the last 2 seasons.
PITTSBURGH is 42-27 ATS (+9.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
OTTAWA is 52-42 ATS (+97.4 Units) in all games this season.
OTTAWA is 14-11 ATS (+28.6 Units) in a road game where where the total is 5.5 this season.
OTTAWA is 32-26 ATS (+59.9 Units) second half of the season this season.
OTTAWA is 15-9 ATS (+25.3 Units) after scoring 4 goals or more in their previous game this season.
OTTAWA is 28-17 ATS (+48.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
OTTAWA is 16-10 ATS (+28.2 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
PITTSBURGH is 6-3 (+1.9 Units) against the spread versus OTTAWA over the last 3 seasons
PITTSBURGH is 6-3-0 straight up against OTTAWA over the last 3 seasons
5 of 9 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+0.8 Units)

 
Posted : May 13, 2017 9:40 am
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OTTAWA vs. PITTSBURGH
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Ottawa's last 6 games when playing on the road against Pittsburgh
Ottawa is 1-9 SU in its last 10 games when playing on the road against Pittsburgh
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Pittsburgh's last 8 games at home
Pittsburgh is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games at home

 
Posted : May 13, 2017 9:40 am
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