Betting the 2017 NFL Draft

Betting the 2017 NFL Draft
By: Joe Fortenbaugh
Covers.com

I’ve been seriously wagering on the NFL draft since 2008 and if there is one piece of advice I could impart, it would be that the most bankable information tends to surface in the 24 hours before the first round gets underway.

So here is how we’re going to approach the 2017 NFL draft: Below, you will find six picks that I am seriously considering heading into Thursday night. I like these picks...a lot. But I also know that things can change.

With that being said, be sure to check back with us on Wednesday night/Thursday morning when I release another NFL draft props article with finalized information.

PROP: Over/Under draft position for LSU RB Leonard Fournette

Odds: Over 4.5 -115, Under 4.5 -115

Analysis: Whether the Cleveland Browns remain at pick No. 1 or trade back, the first overall selection in the 2017 NFL draft will be used on either Texas A&M pass rusher Myles Garrett or a quarterback. The 49ers are trying to trade back from the second overall selection, but if San Francisco fails to find any takers, Fournette won’t be the guy. Just look at the offensive histories of head coach Kyle Shanahan and his father, Mike Shanahan. Both excel at identifying under-the-radar running back prospects and turning them into recognizable stars (remember sixth-round selection Terrell Davis in Denver or fourth-round pick Devonta Freeman with the Falcons last year?).

That takes us to the Chicago Bears at pick No. 3, who currently have Jordan Howard (1,313 rushing yards in 2016, second in NFL) as well as 2015 fourth-round pick Jeremy Langford and 2014 fourth-round selection Ka’Deem Carey on the roster. Jacksonville at No. 4 is intriguing, but the Jaguars could be targeting a quarterback here and just spent a second-round pick on Alabama running back T.J. Yeldon in 2015.

In summation, the first four spots on the 2017 draft board are currently occupied by teams that either don’t need a running back at all or don’t need a running back with this high of a selection. At -115, the OVER is the play.

Pick: OVER 4.5 (-115)

PROP: Over/Under draft position for North Carolina QB Mitchell Trubisky

Odds: Over 9.5 -130, Under 9.5 +100

Analysis: Indulge me for a moment while I go on record to say that I believe Trubisky is one of 2017’s most overrated prospects. The guy couldn’t beat out Marquise Williams in 2015 and then after just 13 starts in 2016 he somehow finds himself as the crown jewel of this year’s quarterback class? I don’t buy it.

That being said, the quarterback position is all about supply and demand in the NFL and, like most years, demand is up and supply is down, which is excellent news for Trubisky. The Browns are in play at No. 1 and could also use their extremely deep arsenal of draft picks to trade up from pick No. 12 to make a move on Trubisky, should Cleveland go with Texas A&M pass rusher Myles Garrett at No. 1.

San Francisco (No. 2) is in need of a quarterback, as are the Bears (No. 3) and Jets (No. 6). Additionally, Jacksonville (No. 4) could be looking to move on from Blake Bortles, while the Chargers (No. 7) eventually need to find a replacement for 35-year-old Philip Rivers.

Again, it’s all about supply and demand.

Pick: UNDER 9.5 (+100)

PROP: Over/Under draft position for Texas Tech QB Patrick Mahomes

Odds: Over 24.5 +100, Under 24.5 -130

Analysis: Not only does Mahomes possess the biggest arm in this year’s draft class, but the 6-2, 225-pounder out of Texas Tech was blessed with a cannon that could absolutely rival some of the best and brightest currently throwing it around the lot at the professional level. Yeah, his arm really is that impressive.

Which leads us back to the previous conversation regarding supply and demand as it pertains to the quarterback position. For the under to cash in this spot, Mahomes has to hear his name called before the Houston Texans hit the clock at pick No. 25. Here’s a list of the teams that are in the market for a new quarterback that will hit the clock before Houston:

Cleveland (No. 1 and No. 12), San Francisco (No. 2), Chicago (No. 3), the New York Jets (No. 6) and Buffalo (No. 10).

Additionally, the Jaguars (No. 4) could be looking for Blake Bortles’ replacement while the Chargers (No. 7), Cardinals (No. 13) and Redskins (No. 17) could be looking for heirs to Philip Rivers, Carson Palmer and Kirk Cousins, respectively.

Oh, and don’t forget about the mess in Houston, which could always lead to the Texans trading up to nab Mahomes.

Pick: UNDER 24.5 (-130)

PROP: Over/Under number of quarterbacks selected in the first round

Odds: Over 3.5 +170, Under 3.5 -220

Analysis: This is a value play, pure and simple. If you’ve been reading up until this point you already know that I like Mitch Trubisky and Patrick Mahomes to land in the first round. I feel the same way about Clemson standout Deshaun Watson, who is getting far less love than he deserves in the buildup to the 2017 NFL draft. Honestly, this dude went toe-to-toe with Alabama on the biggest stage TWICE and nobody is talking about him? Something smells fishy here.

That means we just need Notre Dame’s DeShone Kizer to hear his name called on Thursday night in order to cash this OVER. Kizer is a developmental project who would have benefited greatly from another year in South Bend, but at +170, I’m definitely willing to roll the dice that either:

A. Somebody at the end of the first round takes a shot (Houston at No. 25, Kansas City at No. 27, Pittsburgh at No. 30) OR…

B. Somebody trades back into the first round to select Kizer before the opening night of the draft reaches its conclusion.

Pick: OVER 3.5 (+170)

PROP: Over/Under draft position for Stanford RB Christian McCaffrey

Odds: Over 8.5 -105, Under 8.5 -125

Analysis: Having lived in the Bay Area for the last few years I’ve been privileged enough to watch McCaffrey tear up the Pac-12 on as consistent a basis as you could possibly imagine. I love this kid’s worth ethic, versatility and home run capabilities.

But I don’t buy him getting drafted within the first eight picks on Thursday night.

Cleveland (No. 1) has so many holes that the Browns won’t use this high of a pick on a running back, Kyle Shanahan’s offense in San Francisco (No. 2) has a habit of taking unknown running backs and turning them into stars and the Bears (No. 3), Titans (No. 5) and Chargers (No. 7) are already set at the position. And with Leonard Fournette and, possibly, Florida State’s Dalvin Cook rated as better prospects, the only way I see us losing this OVER is if Carolina makes a play on McCaffrey at No. 8 with Fournette and Cook already off the board.

Pick: OVER 8.5 (-105)

PROP: Over/Under number of running backs selected in the first round

Odds: Over 3.5 +155, Under 3.5 -200

Analysis: Much like the OVER 3.5 quarterbacks play mentioned above, this is another value pick. LSU’s Leonard Fournette, Stanford’s Christian McCaffrey and Florida State’s Dalvin Cook are all slated for the first round, in my opinion. Which means we only need one more ball-carrier to cash this OVER.

Enter the controversial Joe Mixon (Oklahoma), who is considered by many experts to be the best running back prospect in this year’s draft class. The only problem is that a tape surfaced last year showing Mixon viciously knocking out a female at a restaurant in 2014.

That tape will scare some teams away from targeting Mixon in the first round. But I’m willing to bet that it won’t scare EVERYBODY away.

Pick: OVER 3.5 (+155)